I already said I am not expecting (hoping, yes) any more 5x-10x in a single year anymore.
I believe that I understand what you are saying, bitserve, but you better tone down the bullishness a bit.
What I am suggesting is that two years in a row of 10x would still be a 100x, and even the most bullish of bitcoin prognosticators are not projecting anything like that... gosh that could put us in the $300k to $600k price range in two years (depending on foundational BTC price bouncing off point).
In fact I would prefer if we reach the stage in which Bitcoin stops crazily overshooting and overdumping afterwards for a more "sane and healthy" price growth instead.
Yes.. I recognize your rhetorical point.... In other words, you don't really expect a disappearance of bitcoin price overshooting. I know that you are just making such world view assertions in order to fantasize a little.
I didn't say anything about 10x two years in a row... and that's not how it works. Do a 10x one year and next one will just implode, as always.
I am referring that I don't expect 5x-10x in a single year.... Which is exactly what I wrote
I will concede that I may have inadvertently created a strawman argument in order to attempt to construct the most bullish argument out of your words, and in the end, I became too excited and ended up exaggerating your words.
So, if you are saying no more 5x to 10x runs in any single year, then the most we could expect would be a series of 4.99x annual runs.
Let's say 4.99x in each of the next 3 years? I could live with that, and let's start with the beginning of 2020... yeah, the starting point is a bit random, but it seems to be as good as any. No?
Scenario 1:January 2020 = $7,175
January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50
January 2022 = $35,157.50 (x 4.99) = $175,436
January 2023 = $175,436 (x 4.99) = $875,425.25
January 2024 = $875,425.25 (90% correction) = $87,542.50
I am not trying to concede that your proclamation of putting a limit on how much we could go up in any single year has any kind of profound meaning, but I am still saying that even with your ball park estimations of future limitations, we don't need 5x to 10x per year or more in order to prosper quite greatly in bitcoin.
I would be even willing to concede that the amount of magnification could go down each year, in a bull run, and we would still be doing quite well. Let's try 4.99x then 3.5x and then 2x... then retrace thereafter.
Scenario 2:January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50
(same as scenario 1)January 2022 = $35,157.50 (x 3.5) = $123,051.25
January 2023 = $123,051.25 (x 2) = $246,102.50
January 2024 = $246,102.50 (90% correction) = $24,610.25
But hey bitserve, we know that bitcoin does not even work in a slow and steady kind of manner like that, and we should not be expecting it to work in a slow and steady manner.
More likely would be that Bitcoin would go through an outrageous upward explosion and then downward collapse beyond expectations... so yeah, it might be a bit much to expect any BTC bull market to last longer than 2 years... so maybe we had nearly 1x in 2019 already, so we can only expect one more year? or two more years from here at the best? Maybe smaller corrections, too (such as 75%?), which would put us at these kinds of scenarios (that build off of scenarios 1 and 2 above).
Scenario 1a:January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50
(same as scenario 1 and 2)January 2022 = $35,157.50 (x 4.99) = $175,436
(same as scenario 1)January 2023 = $175,436 (75% correction) = $43,859
Scenario 2a:January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50
(same as scenario 1, 1a and 2)January 2022 = $35,157.50 (x 3.5) = $123,051.25
(same as scenario 2) January 2023 = $123,051.25 (75% correction) = $30,762.81
Or an even more bearish scenario would cause the bull run to be smaller and the correction to come sooner, but likely to be smaller, too.
Scenario 1b/2b:January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50
(same as scenario 1, 1a, 2 and 2a)January 2022 = $35,157.50 (70% correction) = $10,547.25
2x? 3x? Maybe even 4x? Yeah, why not, in a very lucky year... much more than that and there you have another bubble pop and subsequent dump.
O.k.... even with your concessions that bitcoin could go beyond 5x in one year, we are ultimately asserting similar things, even while you are striving to be even more conservative than me regarding NOT getting your hopes up too much. I can appreciate that perspective, for sure.
But... maybe that's exactly what will happen. Once more. But even if it does, there must be a point in which it doesn't do it anymore. And sooner or later it will come.
Of course, it seems logical that the explosive bursts in the upwards direction are going to become less able to be sustained, but does not mean that they are NOT going to happen for a while. Yeah, maybe we are not going to experience another 78x in two years. So what? We don't need 78x in two years in order to do quite well in bitcoin. We also don't need lame ass limitations of less than 5x in order to have meaningful and reasonable price growth (and discovery) in a still immature market that is still getting figured out by more and more people, institutions and governments.
I already said I am not expecting (hoping, yes) any more 5x-10x in a single year anymore. In fact I would prefer if we reach the stage in which Bitcoin stops crazily overshooting and overdumping afterwards for a more "sane and healthy" price growth instead.
That'll only happen once BTC's speculative nature has generally been priced in. In other words, in the "late adopter" phase. After mainstream adoption, after dinosaur institutions are balls deep into crypto, etc.
Price and adoption are directly linked, so as long as most people/institutions haven't adopted it yet, it will continue being extremely speculative.
Exponential adoption necessitates exponential gains.
The next bubble will melt your face off. Even if I don't really expect it, I will really welcome it if it does
Even if there are no "face melting" levels, we have no real reason to believe that something close to "face melting" does NOT have decently good odds of happening. And, fuck alt coins. They might seem to have more pumpening potential, but that pumpening is not sustainable. So, we should be considering any "face melting" potentiality with consideration of downside risk too...
In other words, even if one man's face melting does not reach that level for another, we should still be able to continue to appreciate bitcoin's asymmetric bet while considering the downside risk, too... and so what, if performance goes down, a bit.. those expectations of GREATER pumpenings can really distract folks from keeping their eyes on the prize.. in this case, king daddy... not suggesting that you, bitserve, are playing into any of those nonsense arguments that come from various shitcoins that appeal to their lower market cap allowing for greater pumpening potential, even while they are crap.. but this is a public thread, so remains worthwhile to refer to those nonsense talking points when folks are lamenting about the seeming lack of upside pumpening potential in bitcoin.
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