Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[VB1001]

Personally, I've been noticing the estimates for the bubble tops decreasing. I recall in 2018, some popular tradingview and twitter guys were claiming we were just taking a breather on the way up to $400K. Now there seems to be a prevailing sentiment that we'll top out <=$100K on the next bubble. Who knows? There are so many different prediction models that are all supported by past data, but give wildly different future results. There's S2F, and other power law based models, various exponential models, basic TA models like yours and the one below, etc.

I'm leaning toward the S2F power law corridor, which would put us at $100K+ late next year. I intuitively feel this is too high, and the model is too aggressive. However, I've seen various models converging around $100K at the end of next year. Perhaps this will be the final bull market for bitcoin which results in 3,000%+ returns from the bottom. As you noted, the 80%+ drops have been continuing, so perhaps the huge volatility, while being a bit muted on the upside, will continue for at least one more cycle. The last 80% drop could've foreshadowed another massive bubble.

That reminds me, I just saw this posted on twitter yesterday:

@Josh_Rager
$BTC Unpopular Opinion:

The next Bitcoin peak high will not be as high as most people think

Lots of analysis out there point from $100k to $300k to $1M

Simple rate of return will show you bottom to peak return reduces by around 20% each cycle

IMO, next high hits $75k to $85k

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1218265268243304449

These figures could be perfectly the new ATH, but to get to it, it has to have a lot of media noise in Bitcoin, the bottom is inside, the weak hands are outside, now we only have the hodlers that buy a small amount when a few hundred dollars falls, you need new BTC adopters for this and it may take a while.

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[Icygreen]

Good morning WO's, Indeed it is over $9000 looking at 9155 and climbing. This is fine.
Tet is coming soon and the karaoke parties are starting. I'm expecting prices to follow the celebrations of the next 10 days.
Friends and atmosphere all in place.  Here's a shot of our back yard currently. Any sleuths out there find this? Shouldn't be terribly difficult.

Falassarna Beach, Crete, Greece

Greece is nice guess, sounds beautiful, would love to visit but never been there. The boats should be unmistakable here.

[VB1001]

^
Damn it, it seemed too easy

[Biodom]

Good morning WO's, Indeed it is over $9000 looking at 9155 and climbing. This is fine.
Tet is coming soon and the karaoke parties are starting. I'm expecting prices to follow the celebrations of the next 10 days.
Friends and atmosphere all in place.  Here's a shot of our back yard currently. Any sleuths out there find this? Shouldn't be terribly difficult.

Blue Lagoon, Thailand?

[Icygreen]

Spent plenty of time in Thailand in the past, haven't been there in years.
Maybe this won't be so easy, it is kinda obscure place to go. Here's better images of the boat, the locals, and the launch of a boat. Done in 30 knots of wind!
I'll add some of the monuments here if need be later.

[P_Shep]

Urgh. Tired of all this $9K. 

When 10K?

[by rallier]

Urgh. Tired of all this $9K. 

When 10K?

Not today

[jbreher]

You are a scammer

Being a scammer requires a victim. Who have I scammed, somac.? Name the aggrieved party or STFU.

The correct term is would-be scammer. 

No but in all seriousness, there was a decent analogy given in one of the many BSV ANN threads about how attempting to recreate Bitcoin 0.1 is like attempting to recreate an early Ford automobile.

imagine Henry Ford, coming back from the grave telling Ford company that cars don't need AC/heater because that is not part of the original design..what cars need are bigger windows, actually might as well remove the windshield to let more air in LOL

Craig is claiming his car is a Ford Model T when in actuality under the hood its closer to a Toyota Corolla. If he wanted to recreate the Model T, he would have just cloned the Model T instead of including all the modernizations introduced in generations (builds) afterward.

To complete the analogy, modern Bitcoin (0.19) is more like a Ford Fusion sedan. It makes use of the latest innovations in the industry to deliver an advanced version of the original product, one that couldn't have been fathomable during Henry Ford's time.

If you want to be religious about it and say the Model T is the only true car, well have fun, but don't expect other people to follow.

Sorry, but...
stupid analogy is stupid.

It would be one thing if BTC's 'innovations' were demonstrably, measurably better. However, even at this late date (two years?), how much value is being transacted on the 'improved' LN?

In short, adhering to BSV because one believes it more closely follows Satoshi's original protocol is much like a religion -- based on belief, and not much more. Its a religion every bit as much as Bitcoin (BTC) Maximalism is a religion.

Though as you say, there is some element of religiousity in either position.

Personally I find Prophet Craig to be a false prophet as his teachings are unpalatable -- pretty much devoid of any sort of morals or ethics. However, if someone else wants to accept him as a True Prophet, well, not much I can do about that.

Again with the conflation of Craig and BSV.

So far, the things he has been saying -- with regards to the BSV protocol itself -- is to bring it into further congruence with the initial satoshi protocol. Accordingly, all the other mutterings are but peripheral and irrelevant to the chain itself.

One does not need to believe any Craig <> prophet status in order to see the benefit of the direction of the BSV protocol.

Thanks for the (surprisingly) balanced response.

[jbreher]

who fucking cares if what happens to be said about some other topic, such as a shitcoin bsv rises to the level of lies.. It does not matter.  

So you openly admit to lies, and you pile on by stating that lying does not matter. Great. Paragon of virtue, our JJG.

I am NOT admitting anything.  I am saying that your assertion that lies are being made here does not give you a free pass to troll and shill your stupid-ass off-topic support for that shitcoin BSV or any other shitcoin or other off-topical matter that you proclaim to be correcting purported lies. 

Again with the dissembling admission.

It reflects poorly upon you, JJG.

[jbreher]

My second bullet further makes the point by saying that you believe it's irrelevant if faketoshi is Satoshi (but BSvers for some reason still need to follow his truest implementation) 

It is irrelevant whether or not CSW is Satoshi precisely because the changes BSV is undergoing are bringing it closer to Satoshi's original protocol. We don't need Craig to dictate the direction because the whitepaper exists and because bitcoind 0.1 exists. We can read.

[jbreher]

At $400k there won't be any normal people with bitcoins left probably. You won't be able to cash out even if you wanted to because you won't have any bitcoins.

?!

u r doing it rong

[nutildah]

Sorry, but...
stupid analogy is stupid.

It would be one thing if BTC's 'innovations' were demonstrably, measurably better. However, even at this late date (two years?), how much value is being transacted on the 'improved' LN?

You're saying my analogy is stupid because LN isn't perfect yet? Were the first iterations of the electric car demonstrably, measurably better than regular cars? What's perhaps stupider is to decide a technology is a failure because it hasn't yet been perfected. Just like Bitcoin 0.1 wasn't perfect and the protocol has undergone several changes to fix dozens of problems since. Even after 10 years, its still not perfect.

Regardless, I'm not talking just about LN, I'm talking about all the changes that have taken place since Bitcoin 0.10 was first launched, the one that Craig says his Toyota Corolla is emulating.

Again with the conflation of Craig and BSV.

So far, the things he has been saying -- with regards to the BSV protocol itself -- is to bring it into further congruence with the initial satoshi protocol. Accordingly, all the other mutterings are but peripheral and irrelevant to the chain itself.

One does not need to believe any Craig <> prophet status in order to see the benefit of the direction of the BSV protocol.

There is no conflation: BSV is Craig. Did BSV make its recent moves because people suddenly saw "the benefit of the direction of the BSV protocol"? No. BSV moves are always centered around Craig's scammy antics. Its a con game not much different than that played by those who profited during the rise of Bitconnect. If you wish to involve yourself in it, obviously nobody can stop you. Let's just not pretend BSV's recent relative successes are about the tech.

[El duderino_]

Urgh. Tired of all this $9K. 

When 10K?

Not today

So clearly today....

Turning back around to snooze another hour, This is fine

[VB1001]

https://mayermultiple.info/

[jbreher]

Let's say you come up with $1million as nice round number. Again, this could as low as $500K in some countries and just for a very modest lifestyle up to $5 million for US, with many years to live, and with a nice lifestyle.

Daym you need $5m to live in the US?

Wellllll...

The traditional financial advisor .. um ... advice is to plan on withdrawing 4% annually.

So 4% of $5M is $200K. Is that enough? Before taxes? It's an individual target.

Note that the 4% assumes normal retirement age and life expectancy. If retiring early or planning on living to 268 years of age, you might wanna reduce the percentage for calculation purposes.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[jbreher]

Sorry, but...
stupid analogy is stupid.

It would be one thing if BTC's 'innovations' were demonstrably, measurably better. However, even at this late date (two years?), how much value is being transacted on the 'improved' LN?

You're saying my analogy is stupid because LN isn't perfect yet?

No. I'm saying that your analogy is stupid because:
A Corrolla is better than a T in every discernible measurable dimension, save nostalgia, and;
BTC is not measurably better than bitcoin protocol 1.0 in any discernible dimension.

Again with the conflation of Craig and BSV.

So far, the things he has been saying -- with regards to the BSV protocol itself -- is to bring it into further congruence with the initial satoshi protocol. Accordingly, all the other mutterings are but peripheral and irrelevant to the chain itself.

One does not need to believe any Craig <> prophet status in order to see the benefit of the direction of the BSV protocol.

There is no conflation: BSV is Craig.

Hmm. Most four year olds can tell the difference between a cryptocurrency and a person. Pity you cannot.

[somac.]

BTC is not measurably better than bitcoin protocol 1.0 in any discernible dimension.

Hmm, off course you don't really believe that do you. Because you have large holdings in both Bitcoin and BCH.

You refuse to put your money where your mouth is.

[Globb0]

Spent plenty of time in Thailand in the past, haven't been there in years.
Maybe this won't be so easy, it is kinda obscure place to go. Here's better images of the boat, the locals, and the launch of a boat. Done in 30 knots of wind!
I'll add some of the monuments here if need be later.

Vietnam?

bit like this boat style





Mui Ne?

[Globb0]

BTC is not measurably better than bitcoin protocol 1.0 in any discernible dimension.

Hmm, off course you don't really believe that do you. Because you have large holdings in both Bitcoin and BCH.

You refuse to put your money where your mouth is.

Why should he not diversify or hedge, whatever he believes.

This argument, dump everything else to prove anything is silly.