Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

Even if the price is obviously not doing what we would WANT short term... I still think it is doing what we NEED for Medium/Long term.

$10K+ at around the halving is what I am talking about as the first relevant point of reference.

A too fast, too soon pump before that would be very bad with the potential of ruining the real post halving rally.

#ThisIsFine #JustHODL.

Fine by me, it’s a marathon not a sprint.

Edit - My 15,000th post, cool. Probably should have done a better post but fuck it.

Meh what is 15k posts....

JJG is going for first trillion letter in a few days ......

Sorry extreme drunk spam

Go corn go

[marcus_of_augustus]

asymptomatic transmission

we're all gonna' die

yes ... and some reports from scientists inside Wuhan hospital of 14% fatality rates, not official 3% rate ... this thing is off the charts bad ass, they should have quarantined China 2-3 weeks ago, and still mutating, one hope is later strains will be less deadly/virulent 

global economy is going to take a hammering over next 3-6 months

[Biodom]

asymptomatic transmission

we're all gonna' die

yes ... and some reports from scientists inside Wuhan hospital of 14% fatality rates, not official 3% rate ... this thing is off the charts bad ass, they should have quarantined China 2-3 weeks ago, and still mutating, one hope is later strains will be less deadly/virulent  

global economy is going to take a hammering over next 3-6 months

is it too cynical to short some stocks? on one hand, maybe yes, on the other hand, it is just a number. Most companies are not really hurt by fluctuations of their stock price. Longs can also be found.

[jojo69]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

[Icygreen]

Perhaps I'm just becoming numb to the health scares. Wasn't it SARS, H1N1, Ebola, Zika, and Avian bird flu recently?
I'm more inclined to think this could be a Chinese military exercise on population quarantine/controls on mass scale.
I think corona virus will fade just like the others did. 

[marcus_of_augustus]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

... best numbers/info I can gather from various sources, with uncertainties:

- R0 between 1.4 - 3.8
- lethality between 3 - 14%
- asymptomatic transmission/incubation period 9 - 14 days  (carriers could be out there spreading it for 5 days 2 weeks after catching it!!, fux)
- transmission mechanisms include bodily fluids (blood, saliva, etc) or aerosols (coughing, sneezing, farting, ejaculation, etc) contracted through respiratory or eyes, etc ... no reports of airborne yet.
- SARS-like sympoms with terminal phase having organs overwhelmed, pneumonia (drowning in lung fluids)
- officially recorded source is a bat virus jumped to snake virus jumped to humans ... bat-snake flu

[Biodom]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

... best numbers/info I can gather from various sources, with uncertainties:

- R0 between 1.4 - 3.8
- lethality between 3 - 14%
- asymptomatic transmission/incubation period 9 - 14 days  (carriers could be out there spreading it for 5 days 2 weeks after catching it!!, fux)
- transmission mechanisms include bodily fluids (blood, saliva, etc) or aerosols (coughing, sneezing, farting, ejaculation, etc) contracted through respiratory or eyes, etc ... no reports of airborne yet.
- terminal phase is organs overwhelmed, pneumonia (drowning in lung fluids)

I could opine on the last item...it's probably because of high immunogenicity of this.
We, humans, never seen these antigens, so response is so intense that people release lots of cytokines (cytokine "storm'), which then cause what you described.
They first said snakes were the origin, but now someone is saying that it looks more like it came from a bat.

[jojo69]

If it doesn't turn out to have escaped from a bioweapons development effort I will be mildly surprised.

[smartcomet]

a nice thread about bitcoin price prediction

I predict that some time in the next ten years, a single Bitcoin will exceed the price of a median single-family home in the United States. According to Zillow, that price right now is $236,900.
.
.
.
In conclusion, I see Bitcoin as the most likely candidate to back (at least in part) a new world of emerging digital currencies. Bitcoin is a censorship resistant, scarce, digitally native asset that only needs to survive while the current system crumbles around it.

[lightfoot]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

Hardly. it will probably kill old people which will finally get rid of the whole Boomer problem. :-)

Stay healthy, stay up to date on immunizations and the like and rock on. Or ignore science, pray to an ignorant god, and go from there.

[Paashaas]

If it doesn't turn out to have escaped from a bioweapons development effort I will be mildly surprised.

Wuhan has a biological level 4 (military) research facility lab. Testing deadly viruses. They fcked it up in the lab ore it was transmitted through wild animals, pollution and bad hygiene.

China arrested journalists reporting the outbreak now locking down 10+ cities, 40+m people under quarantine. Everyday more deaths and infections, casulties will go up much higher if they can't find a solution fast.

This is a race against the clock. Stay save.

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens.

But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times

[Biodom]

is it too cynical to short some stocks?

We're putting everything in canned food and shotguns.

If this things R0 is near 4 as some fear, and it kills at a rate of 14% this could be a very big deal.

Hardly. it will probably kill old people which will finally get rid of the whole Boomer problem. :-)

Stay healthy, stay up to date on immunizations and the like and rock on. Or ignore science, pray to an ignorant god, and go from there.

What immunizations? It's not a flu.

[Hueristic]

I could opine on the last item...it's probably because of high immunogenicity of this.
We, humans, never seen these antigens, so response is so intense that people release lots of cytokines (cytokine "storm'), which then cause what you described.
They first said snakes was the origin, but now someone is saying that it looks more like it came from a bat.

Welp, time to tear down the Bat houses!

[JayJuanGee]

Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.

What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

To 9000, obviously.

Because it would suit you? 

In two years it will go much higher than $9k.

two years seems to be a bit of a stretched out scenario...

We are looking at ATH that is quite likely within this calendar year, but could drag out to 15-20 months from here...

Most crypto discussion and analysis, or whatever you want to call it, has a horizon of months or weeks, or mere days.  That's much too short.
Let's take the long view.
Bitcoin's market follows a wavelike pattern.  Since 2012, when the first halving happened, the waves have a period of a bit less than four years -- the time between halvings.
That puts the next ATH late 2021.

I agree that many of us active WO participants are coming to similar conclusions regarding the top of the next ATH being around the ball park of late 2021....

When I was mentioning reaching the possibility of reach a new ATH by this calendar year, I was not limiting myself to the peak of the next exponential price movement but instead just referring to getting past the old ATH to supersede $19,666.

We are likely saying similar things, but you had been responding to discussions about $9k, and it seems likely within a year or two that $9k and 4 digits will not be reached again (I mean dipping back down into).... .

[Hueristic]

Wuhan has a biological level 4 (military) research facility lab. Testing deadly viruses. They fcked it up in the lab ore it was transmitted through wild animals, pollution and bad hygiene.

China arrested journalists reporting the outbreak now locking down 10+ cities, 40+m people under quarantine. Everyday more deaths and infections, casulties will go up much higher if they can't find a solution fast.

This is a race against the clock. Stay save.

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens.

But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times

China in general is not known for its QC expertise.

[lightfoot]

What immunizations? It's not a flu.

You don't want to have your body already weakened by other crap when this comes in. IE: Be as healthy as possible.

Not quite time to man the 50 caliber machine gun yet. This should be interesting to watch. Besides our government is staffed by competent scientific

minds

that

oh fuck we're doomed. Ah well.

[Biodom]

What immunizations? It's not a flu.

You don't want to have your body already weakened by other crap when this comes in. IE: Be as healthy as possible.

Not quite time to man the 50 caliber machine gun yet. This should be interesting to watch. Besides our government is staffed by competent scientific

minds

that

oh fuck we're doomed. Ah well.

A reporter today (or yesterday) was interviewing some biotech exec.
Exec: "We got the sequence on Jan 9, so we can now start working toward a vaccine".
Reporter: So, when it would be ready, then (implying that he, like, downloaded a pdf file and expecting a "curing" app any minute, lol)?
Exec: it usually takes 10 years, but with some "acceleration" with the help of the government, it could be done in 4 years.
Reporter: just sitting there in silence, basically. It was 'amusing' to see.

[lightfoot]

A reporter today (or yesterday) was interviewing some biotech exec.
Exec: "We got the sequence on Jan 9, so we can now start working toward a vaccine".
Reporter: So, when it would be ready, then (implying that he, like, downloaded a pdf file and expecting a "curing" app any minute, lol)?
Exec: it usually takes 10 years, but with some "acceleration" with the help of the government, it could be done in 4 years.
Reporter: just sitting there in silence, basically. It was 'amusing' to see.

Based on H5N1 (which is really bad) it should take about 6 months tops.

[JayJuanGee]

Even if the price is obviously not doing what we would WANT short term... I still think it is doing what we NEED for Medium/Long term.

$10K+ at around the halving is what I am talking about as the first relevant point of reference.

A too fast, too soon pump before that would be very bad with the potential of ruining the real post halving rally.

#ThisIsFine #JustHODL.

Fine by me, it’s a marathon not a sprint.

Edit - My 15,000th post, cool. Probably should have done a better post but fuck it.

Meh what is 15k posts....

JJG is going for first trillion letter in a few days ......

Sorry extreme drunk spam

Go corn go

Well, I have never seen any kind of systematic character count or letter count...

So, probably would have to have Loyce or some member like that put something together, and maybe he's not really capable of putting such a thing together.... not sure?.... , even though some of his scrapenings of data have been quite informative in a variety of surprising programing directions.

[Biodom]

A reporter today (or yesterday) was interviewing some biotech exec.
Exec: "We got the sequence on Jan 9, so we can now start working toward a vaccine".
Reporter: So, when it would be ready, then (implying that he, like, downloaded a pdf file and expecting a "curing" app any minute, lol)?
Exec: it usually takes 10 years, but with some "acceleration" with the help of the government, it could be done in 4 years.
Reporter: just sitting there in silence, basically. It was 'amusing' to see.

Based on H5N1 (which is really bad) it should take about 6 months tops.

With human trials on healthy volunteers, then testing vaccine's ability to protect?
Impossibru.