Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DaRude]

Sattire...........

Not so much of a satire for the BSvers

As usual, just replace BTC and bitcoing with BSv and you'll see that they only need one judge's order to do whatever they want on that shitchain.

[El duderino_]

This Covid-19 shit is starting to become a pandemic.

Absolutely surreal watching a game of Plague Inc. play out in real-time.

I'm starting to get the fear. Supposed to be traveling to Amsterdam, and Ireland in April.

When bro ..... PM a brother when In Amsterdam, I would make the effort 

[JSRAW]

@El duderino_  You were asking for something like that for your friend? here you go..
https://twitter.com/hello_bitcoin/status/1233120860371705856

https://www.hellobitco.in

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/e/2PACX-1vTp1RmlRcA4XKaDkwjws_0A7GGCCcA9CJK0FJ3NWU1fCWAeVTIeyqZfsbPPTFnGGvMeoiLQxSl2RWkD/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000&slide=id.p

[El duderino_]

When bro ..... PM a brother when In Amsterdam, I would make the effort  

I actually spoke to Rick about this, and mentioned "this one dude on Bitcointalk, who is probably the only guy I would ever break OpSec for, and grab drinks with, will likely be 30 minutes away from us." Believe me I thought about it, but we just won't have the time. Only in town for the one evening, and I already have plans to spend it with my dearly-departed friends' family, and drop off the nephew, who we'll be toting with us, before Rick and I depart for Ireland late-morning, the next day.

Will need to be some other time, brother

No pressure when time, when possible then always accessible for a PM and a drive over

Already happy it crossed your mind

Cheers, 3 wine of the eve

[HairyMaclairy]

Not sure where you live but we can get by on 14.5kw/h per day including two fridges, security systems etc.  

We run a 10kw system and it would be a rare day we get less than 15 kWh out of it, seeing as that is 1.5 hours at full load.  30 - 40 kw is more typical, peaking out around 60kw.

That is *very* good data to have, thank you. So on an average day you get about 4 solar hours of light, with a peak of 6 solar hours of light. That matches my observed values here with a much smaller system (~1kw) on a grid-tie/battery reserve.

I've noticed the fridges are the big power pullers (aside from AC, which in a disaster I am not running) not because they pull a lot of juice but because they pretty much always pull it. I should put a Kill-a-watt on the fridge again and see just how much power it pulls in a day, in fact I think I'll do that after measuring the idle current of Antminers (for another thread).

How big is your battery array? Mine currently is 200ah*24v or 4.8kw total. My solar array is about 1.2kw total (single crystal panels so pretty efficient) and my inverter right now is a 700 watt UPS converted to run on external batteries with a Matrix/5000 that can be used if I needed a really high drain load.

If I'm running my house in emergency mode it's about 4kw a day of power used. Which is on the edge for my system: Given I can only generate about 4kw of power a day with the panels I can run for a day with no solar power and even then it would be difficult for me to "catch up" and charge the batteries to 100% with solar alone.

My secret weapon for that is the car: A 1kw 12v battery inverter attached to a car can charge the batteries to full in a couple of hours. Having a hybrid in this case is *really* cool, as you can charge off the hybrid battery and the engine only has to fire up to charge the hybrid pack (which it can do quickly and more efficiently than running 100% just to spin the alternator). A bonus is you have a 10-20 gallon rolling fuel tank that you can also drive (at 40mpg) somewhere to tank up on fuel if needed.

So as long as civilization doesn't completely puke I'm ok. Really. Interesting. Stuff.

Yes in an emergency we would loose the beer fridge, which should significantly reduce our load.  As you point out, aircon is the real killer.  Our system draws at least 6kw so would be a definite no.

A key is not to fully optimize your panels, don’t point them all due South because that will give you a weak feed on the shoulder periods and a big spike in the middle of the day when you just have to dump it on the grid.  

Instead you want 1/3 pointing south east and 1/3 pointing south west and 1/3 south.  This allows you to pick up the early morning sun and the late afternoon sun which is much more valuable than the midday sun.  

Battery is a Tesla Powerwall 2 with 13.5 kWh with 5% capacity reserved for intermittent grid trips - it comes on in less than a second. Sometimes you actually get more than 13.5 out of it in a day if there is a storm and you draw down and then recharge in the afternoon

Other days it doesn’t get a full charge if it is cloudy and we are running the aircon non-stop - household consumption can peak around 70kw/h per day which exceeds panel capacity even in full sun if we abuse aircon, run the stove, dishwasher, clothes dryer.

Panels cost very little these days, they seem to be halving in price every five years.  If you put your system in awhile ago, you might try and see if you can economically add more panels.  Of course you will need a converter but if your string inverter doesn’t have enough capacity you could consider adding microinverters which allow you to add panels piecemeal.  

You are right about the car but I am more worried about fuel security than power security.  We still don’t have an electric car yet and we can’t produce our own fuel.  I possibly should go get some fuel canisters but don’t like the idea of storing them in the garage.  

Edit:  just checked the numbers.  Our minimum production in a month was 792kwh and max was 1560kwh.  So production doubles in summer.

[jojo69]

Instead you want 1/3 pointing south east and 1/3 pointing south west and 1/3 south.  This allows you to pick up the early morning sun and the late afternoon sun which is much more valuable than the midday sun.  

  

no offense, but the way I parse this is that your battery is undersize

[HairyMaclairy]

You are correct, it’s undersize.  But in economic terms, the grid is a much cheaper and bigger battery for normal everyday household consumption given current feed in tariffs.  

The battery is more about energy security.  Keep in mind most solar will be cut off when the grid goes down. People won’t be able to generate at all because the utility shuts down their solar remotely to stop them exporting.   The Tesla has a gateway to allow you to generate behind the battery.

[jojo69]

fair enough

[HairyMaclairy]

https://twitter.com/hmichellerose/status/1233578788228943873?s=20

Probably I would order this one for damn sure

Hell yeah that sounds delicious

[vapourminer]

Yes in an emergency we would loose the beer fridge, which should significantly reduce our load.  As you point out, aircon is the real killer.  Our system draws at least 6kw so would be a definite no.

A key is not to fully optimize your panels, don’t point them all due South because that will give you a weak feed on the shoulder periods and a big spike in the middle of the day when you just have to dump it on the grid. 

Instead you want 1/3 pointing south east and 1/3 pointing south west and 1/3 south.  This allows you to pick up the early morning sun and the late afternoon sun which is much more valuable than the midday sun. 

Battery is a Tesla Powerwall 2 with 13.5 kWh with 5% capacity reserved for intermittent grid trips - it comes on in less than a second. Sometimes you actually get more than 13.5 out of it in a day if there is a storm and you draw down and then recharge in the afternoon

Other days it doesn’t get a full charge if it is cloudy and we are running the aircon non-stop - household consumption can peak around 70kw/h per day which exceeds panel capacity even in full sun if we abuse aircon, run the stove, dishwasher, clothes dryer.

Panels cost very little these days, they seem to be halving in price every five years.  If you put your system in awhile ago, you might try and see if you can economically add more panels.  Of course you will need a converter but if your string inverter doesn’t have enough capacity you could consider adding microinverters which allow you to add panels piecemeal. 

solar trackers.

not very portable though plus high upfront cost.

[bitserve]

You are correct, it’s undersize.  But in economic terms, the grid is a much cheaper and bigger battery for normal everyday household consumption given current feed in tariffs.  

The battery is more about energy security.  Keep in mind most solar will be cut off when the grid goes down. People won’t be able to generate at all because the utility shuts down their solar remotely to stop them exporting.   The Tesla has a gateway to allow you to generate behind the battery.

Is that legal somehow? How does it work? Does it inject to a completely different line in your house or is able to somehow isolate from the grid so that no electricity is injected back?

Have you considered installing one of those cheap small aircon split unit (one with 1kw max) in at least one room, ie the bedroom, so in case of a blackout you have some air conditioning at least? Obviously your 7kw central unit is a no-go without the grid and that is probably the only thing missing in your nice setup.

[fillippone]

Very interesting.
I think I can play bingo reading  any random Italian newspaper.
Any hint of this in the WO?

[lightfoot]

This Covid-19 shit is starting to become a pandemic.

Absolutely surreal watching a game of Plague Inc. play out in real-time.

I'm starting to get the fear. Supposed to be traveling to Amsterdam, and Ireland in April.

For me it's like seeing "On the Beach" play out in real time. Yep, Oregon just went dark, party on!

[lightfoot]

You are correct, it’s undersize.  But in economic terms, the grid is a much cheaper and bigger battery for normal everyday household consumption given current feed in tariffs.  

The battery is more about energy security.  Keep in mind most solar will be cut off when the grid goes down. People won’t be able to generate at all because the utility shuts down their solar remotely to stop them exporting.   The Tesla has a gateway to allow you to generate behind the battery.

Ok, so you're grid-tied with the ability to run your own power island if things go down off the batteries. My system is tied into a Sunny Boy 1800 for the grid which can be manually switched into a MPPT converter that can feed the battery bank in the event things go odd. Manual, but works. The batteries are in my work shed, which has about 320 watts of solar directly connected to it to keep the shed running and the batteries peaked.

I have thought about getting a Sunny Island or a Trace SW4024 so I can automatically switch between grid and solar, but another option would be to just break down and put the Matrix in the house and wire it up to a subpanel that runs the fridge and other stuff. I'll think about that, but a 700 watt inverter is enough to run the critical stuff including the microwave.

Solar panels *are* cheap these days, I bought mine at about $2 a watt used for the single crystal ones. Modern polycrystaline are a bit less efficient (take up more space and are *heavier*) but that's not too big of a deal. Will think about it.

[jbreher]

the lithiums have made impressive strides in energy density, outpacing your Trojans by a fair bit

that said, and I am quite aware of the dangers inherent in H2SO4, if I had one of those power walls it would be installed in an airtight bunker some distance from the dwelling...

when lithium decides to do the bad, it is really bad

True. For a house system weight and energy density aren't as big a problem as in a car (where you have to like move it). So L16 or T105 batteries can get you a lot of power for a reasonable price without the major fire problem of lithiums.

As for hydrogen I've never seen issues with lead, however I guy I knew did blow the bed off his battery powered truck with flooded NiCD batteries. Those last forever but really can gas hydrogen on charge. Oh well.

100ah AGM batteries are quite nice as well but a bit more pricey per AH. Any way you go, you need to figure out how much power you need per day, then build your solar panels to put that much power back in 1/2 day (factoring in cloudy days) with a battery capacity of at least 3-4 times your load for rainy days and the like. Thus if you want to run the fridge (200 watts*24=4.8kw) some lights (about 1kw a day) and a toaster (1,500 watts for an hour a day) you're at 7kw. Thus a 28kw battery pack and 14kw of solar will do it. Assuming 5 hours of sun per day (and you factored in the 2x oversize for solar) and you're talking a ~2kw array and if the batteries are 48v then a 500ah battery pack or 16 T105's.

Takes more power than you think.

Thanks for the info. But you have a unit problem.

Watts != Watt-Hours

[HairyMaclairy]

Uh we paid US$259 per panel for Hanwha Qcells @ 340 watt each. Need to double the cost to account for microinverters, installation and electrical work.

So that’s about $520 for 340 watt which is $1.52 / watt for a large install (scale pricing).  You can then take off any government incentive schemes which would reduce the price.

The 340 watt panels seem to peak out around 1.2 kw/h per day.  

Edit:  1.2kwh is wrong. They peak at 1.85kw/h per day.

Back of the envelope calculation, one panel produces on average about $0.25 worth of electricity per day at 25 cents / kw/h tariff.  0.25 x 365 = $91.25 per annum so a touch more than 5 years to pay off. 

Our ROI was much faster because we had government subsidies which brought the cost down by a third.

[lightfoot]

You are correct, it’s undersize.  But in economic terms, the grid is a much cheaper and bigger battery for normal everyday household consumption given current feed in tariffs.  

The battery is more about energy security.  Keep in mind most solar will be cut off when the grid goes down. People won’t be able to generate at all because the utility shuts down their solar remotely to stop them exporting.   The Tesla has a gateway to allow you to generate behind the battery.

Is that legal somehow? How does it work? Does it inject to a completely different line in your house or is able to somehow isolate from the grid so that no electricity is injected back?

Have you considered installing one of those cheap small aircon split unit (one with 1kw max) in at least one room, ie the bedroom, so in case of a blackout you have some air conditioning at least? Obviously your 7kw central unit is a no-go without the grid and that is probably the only thing missing in your nice setup.

Actually a small window AC unit (5000 BTU) can be installed with only a few hundred watts. That can keep a room cool and since it's only for a few hours a day it's not as bad as the damn fridge.

[lightfoot]

the lithiums have made impressive strides in energy density, outpacing your Trojans by a fair bit

that said, and I am quite aware of the dangers inherent in H2SO4, if I had one of those power walls it would be installed in an airtight bunker some distance from the dwelling...

when lithium decides to do the bad, it is really bad

True. For a house system weight and energy density aren't as big a problem as in a car (where you have to like move it). So L16 or T105 batteries can get you a lot of power for a reasonable price without the major fire problem of lithiums.

As for hydrogen I've never seen issues with lead, however I guy I knew did blow the bed off his battery powered truck with flooded NiCD batteries. Those last forever but really can gas hydrogen on charge. Oh well.

100ah AGM batteries are quite nice as well but a bit more pricey per AH. Any way you go, you need to figure out how much power you need per day, then build your solar panels to put that much power back in 1/2 day (factoring in cloudy days) with a battery capacity of at least 3-4 times your load for rainy days and the like. Thus if you want to run the fridge (200 watts*24=4.8kw) some lights (about 1kw a day) and a toaster (1,500 watts for an hour a day) you're at 7kw. Thus a 28kw battery pack and 14kw of solar will do it. Assuming 5 hours of sun per day (and you factored in the 2x oversize for solar) and you're talking a ~2kw array and if the batteries are 48v then a 500ah battery pack or 16 T105's.

Takes more power than you think.

Thanks for the info. But you have a unit problem.

Watts != Watt-Hours

I hate screwing that up, but I think the math holds. watt hours is what everything should be measured in with watts alone just used for peak demand calculations.

[bitserve]

You are correct, it’s undersize.  But in economic terms, the grid is a much cheaper and bigger battery for normal everyday household consumption given current feed in tariffs.  

The battery is more about energy security.  Keep in mind most solar will be cut off when the grid goes down. People won’t be able to generate at all because the utility shuts down their solar remotely to stop them exporting.   The Tesla has a gateway to allow you to generate behind the battery.

Is that legal somehow? How does it work? Does it inject to a completely different line in your house or is able to somehow isolate from the grid so that no electricity is injected back?

Have you considered installing one of those cheap small aircon split unit (one with 1kw max) in at least one room, ie the bedroom, so in case of a blackout you have some air conditioning at least? Obviously your 7kw central unit is a no-go without the grid and that is probably the only thing missing in your nice setup.

Actually a small window AC unit (5000 BTU) can be installed with only a few hundred watts. That can keep a room cool and since it's only for a few hours a day it's not as bad as the damn fridge.

Yup, small aircons are currently *very* efficient. In fact, even already having a central unit (which is way less efficient) it makes some sense to have one individual unit in the more used room:

1) If you have been away for long, you run both and help cool/heat the room way faster.
2) If you often only stay in that room, maybe you can just go with it, with a great cost saving instead of running the central unit.
3) In the case of a solar installation and a blackout, the small unit might be reasonable to use, while the central unit is way too much. Better some than nothing.

Maybe that is not really a critical thing in the case of a big blackout, but I don't think some added comfort, if possible, is gonna hurt.

[jojo69]

solar trackers.

I don't want to come off as snarky, I know I can be an ass sometimes...

System complexity, in my experience there are exactly two kinds of trackers; those being installed, and broken ones...

I have heard rumors of there being a brief intermediate state of "working tracker", but I have never encountered it in the wild.