Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

Historians will one day spend years digging through this thread to understand the evolution of bitcoin in the minds of early bitcoin HODLers.

Hi there, future historians!

a gift for future historians (and bob)

[1714112703]

1714112703

[1714112703]

1714112703

[Toxic2040]

I am toxic.

#dyor

Touching a lower low bitcoin once again slams into the nine thousands. Either a squeeze or we fill that gap below it seems.
1h


back to 0.5 long fib resistance
4h

#stronghands

[Arriemoller]

Your 1 day too late

You're

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @10,300
May be for the last time we will see a test on $10k?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

number of shorts just massively increased

http://prntscr.com/ubm6i2

Usually a good indicator that the bottom is in & the laggards are chasing profits that don’t exist now. The majority always arrive at the end of a storm but then the sun comes out & they look stupid, all kitted out in wellies & rain coats.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Your 1 day too late

You're

Im sorry

[nullius]

Perusing WO in search for news, I discovered the obscene spectacle of a self-entitled brat first demanding that the forum’s most popular thread be censored and memory-holed as “extremely toxic”—viz., he dislikes it—and then accumulating a pile of merits by whining about merits.

Of course, there was zero chance that theymos would delete WO or disable merit on it.  The appropriate response to SwayStar123’s ungrammatical histrionics would have been to insult and then ignore him.

Sadly, attention-seeking tares can altogether too easily control the conversation when they start with wild demands that upset people, and then slowly back off to an approximate simulation of reasonableness whilst dispensing platitudes that, although as empty as they are sanctimonious, have stood unchallenged.

have also demonstrated a willingness to be reasonable

The man who is right does not command respect, but the one who admits he is wrong

Nonsense.  Outside the Cult of Feelings (and I say this in the sense that the statement reeks of “group criticism” and “sensitivity training”, common methods of brainwashing), being right does assuredly command respect; and the respectable man most of all respects he who is right.  Admission of having been wrong may be respectable or not, depending on the context; when it is, that in no way detracts from the respect accorded he who is right in the first instance; when it is not, lecturing others on what commands respect is a fantastic conceit.

Inductive proof:

The earth is flat, 2 + 2 = 5, and anybody who disagrees with me should be shot.

[Ensuing discussion in which I lecture my nay-sayers on how they owe me “constructive criticism” instead of “toxic” insults.  How righteous I am!]

Oops, I was wrong!  BOW DOWN, RESPECT ME, AND +++++MERIT ME FOR ADMITTING THAT I WAS WRONG!!!

I locked it myself, because someone actually gave me constructive criticism for once, instead of just telling me to fuck off. It appears I was looking at the wrong figures, though i think 14% is still too high its not high enough to warrant much action

Why should anybody care what you “think”, instead of just telling you to fuck off?

Of course, to ask the question is to answer it; for surely, your history of illustrious achievements should speak for itself.

I was replying to a person who said nobody gave a shit about merit, clearly i do

May I ask, Why?

number go up feel nice

Yup, attention-seeking snowflake.  Congrats on upping the number and nice feelings by offering nothing of value, but getting people sufficiently riled that, in the resulting confusion, somebody was bound to pat you on the head for something.

Also applies to my wasting my and my readers’ time hereby, with complaints about a melodramatic waste of time.

I ONLY visit the WO thread on bitcointalk.org. I always have a tab open on WO thread. If they delete WO thread, they delete bitcointalk.org for me. WO members are the real bitcoiners. No fake shit and bullshit like on reddit and twitter. I don't read this WO thread to post for some merit, otherwise I could have been Legendary a long time ago. Been on this site since 2011, only registered in 2013. Who gives a fuck about merit when you have bitcoin.

Sorry your time was wasted by some random idiot, whose style and personality indicate that he would be more at home on Reddit or Twitter.  I think that people only took him too seriously, because he takes himself too seriously.  I do think that the danger of WO being deleted on his say-so was somewhat less than my chance of guessing Satoshi’s private keys by random chance.  Who gives a fuck about this tempest in a teacup, when you can talk about Bitcoin.

[Arriemoller]

I never got the chance to post in that SwayStarAsshole thread before it was locked.
I had this haiku I was gonna post, posting it here instead then.

Don't forget haikus
we do merit those as well
much to your chagrin

[tranthidung]

I never got the chance to post in that SwayStarAsshole thread before it was locked.

My 1650 merit are self-earned and only a few of them belong to WO. Since today, I might join here more and earn more merits from WO. I am starting to be jealous of WO's earned merits so I am in!  

Let me see what I can do from this analysis

But yeah let's start with what I have in hands. Total earned merits in WO account for 7.4% of total distributed merits till previous Friday (not today) merit data dump. Please see more details there


A nice bounce of BTC: $10414 now.

Merits in WO
Data is till 4/9/2020 (the last day is incompleted).

Time-series plots

You guys have earned merits stably here, not like BTC volatile price movements. I don't see any flash crash in merit charts.

Daily

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       merit |       955  57.10262  37.01832        49        32        73         5       381
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Weekly

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       merit |       137  398.0511  176.5002       364       256       488       116      1047
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[BobLawblaw]

May be for the last time we will see a test on $10k?

I've got a bad feeling we're going to briefly dip back into 4 digit territory today. I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Not liking the signs from that recent big red candle...

EDIT: Seeing shorts getting liquidated and large market buys, so maybe we are going up today. Too lazy to screencap Twitter right now.

Are you playing anything these days?

 Jumping back and forth between Path of Exile (trying to grind to level 100 with my main dude. Currently 32% through level 98), Torchlight II, and MS Flight Sim (mostly for silly shenanigans like trying to successfully barrel-roll a 747 without it tearing itself apart, or crashing into an ocean...)

 I tested crashing a 747 into our house before taking out Epstein Island.

[serveria.com]

Historians will one day spend years digging through this thread to understand the evolution of bitcoin in the minds of early bitcoin HODLers.

Hi there, future historians!

a gift for future historians (and bob)

Emmmm don't touch it... for reasons...  

[JayJuanGee]

It already dipped below $10k (I spotted $9,987.86 about 30 minutes ago... lasting for at least 3 minutes).  

You already had your chance.  

In other words: been there, done that.  

crap, just missed triggering a buy i had at 9920 then. catch it later maybe

Usually it is better to put your buy orders at above the BIGGER round numbers (in that case, the BIG number that seemed to have fallen pretty quickly was $10k), but sure, you never know because sometimes the spike does go temporarily past the BIGGER round number (which it did in this case).  

Historically, I have had plenty of orders (both buy and sell) that just miss by a few dollars and sometimes even missing by a few cents.. and sure, sometimes the BTC price does come back to that previous location, so usually it does not pay to change your order locations, unless you are changing your order locations for a different reason.. so overall, our mission as "swing traders" should be to try NOT to be emotional about whether our BTC orders are filled or not, but when they are "close but no cigar," we can become a bit irritated (which surely is a kind of emotional) because of how close the orders had come to filling (without happening).

You are right though, vapourminer.  It seems way too early to call the bottom for this particular cycle, currently - even though in my earlier post, I was playing around with BayAreaCoins about the bottom potentially being "in".... a little hopium on my behalf, probably.

By the way, this time around (the past 24-48 hours), I had BTC buy orders that were located about every $250 increment from $11,300-ish to $10k fill.. so my next buy order is around $9,800-ish... so when the BTC price moves a lot, then surely a lot of orders do end up getting filled (even in my case), and I try to NOT have any second guesses regarding all of the BTC that I bought all the way down the ladder, when I could have timed it and bought them all for lower prices (in theory).. In other words, I have no regrets about how it played out and glad that I was able to feel that I profited from the situation...

I kind of feel like I am supporting the cause and doing my "duties" when those multiple BTC buy orders are filling up all the way down the ladder, while at the same time satisfying my personal interests of stacking more sats along the way, too - even though in retrospect quite a few of them were bought at much higher prices than I "could have bought them" in theory.

Looks like we got our second dip below $10k, and this one lasted for only one minute (about 1 hour before this post), but it was deeper than the previous dip, described above.  So, if vapourminer did not change anything, then his buy order at $9,920-ish would have gotten filled because we got down to $9.902.43, and my next buy order $9,800-ish is still just sitting there... NO problema with me.  I remain neutral about my buy orders getting filled, except of course, if we come within a few dollars of my buy order, then I start to develop a bit of a small preference that it gets filled.. a short term rooting for down (against all reason, but the thought is that if we have gotten this far, what's a few more dollars?.... hahahahahahaha).  

Anyhow, I remain quite biased in my preference for UP rather than DOWN... because even if I might be able to stack a few sats on the way down, it continues to be minuscule amounts of stacking as compared with how much of a benefit comes from purely straight UP.  So let's take this latest dip down from $12,000 to $10k... that's a $2k dip in prices that my system has caused me to increase my stash by .1% a most (after the down and the up takes place, I maybe have stacked an additional .1% through my system)... Pretty piddly in the whole scheme of things, and would be way better off by dollar cost averaging over the longer term and continuing to add value on a regular basis.  Problem with my current personal situation is that I no longer feel that I am in a situation to continue to inject value into BTC because I both overachieved my goal in late 2014, continued to add value after 2014 (even after I had already overachieved) and the value of BTC had gone up 78x since late 2015 - but then we are stabilized at a BTC value that continues to be around 40x (given $10k as an approximate current price) and 26x (if we consider $6,600 as our current approximate 200 week moving average - which would be the theoretical extreme bottom).

The punchline continues to be that systematic attempts to profit from volatility remain as a kind of insurance (mostly psychological and a wee bit financial) more than any kind of meaningful way to stack sats or to profit in BTC overall, and the best ways to continue to stack sats and to accumulate BTC value is mostly by periodically injecting value, whether calling it DCA or calling it buying the dip or calling it something else.  And, by the way, for anyone looking for a dip, when you get anything over 10%, you are likely witnessing a significant and meaningful buying dip, and maybe you do not want to blow all of your buying wadd (or dry powder) on a 10% dip, and in this circumstance, so far, we have seen about 18% dip from $12,061 down to $9,902, which should be more than reasonable to pull the BTC buy trigger for anyone buying the dip, and sure you can keep some more value available, just in case to buy if there were more of a dip, but such additional dip may or may not happen this time around.  

Ps.  I see that we are getting a pretty BIG bounce off of this latest dip:  Observing $10,457 as I type this Ps, but I am not going to proclaim that the bottom is "in" because I believe that it is too early to confidently make those kinds of assertions.

[ivomm]

Actually, I think the rusty pipe idea is good especially for trolls. Just give it without comment. They will be puzzled what is the meaning, but WO gang knows

Exhibit A:

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

May be for the last time we will see a test on $10k?

I've got a bad feeling we're going to briefly dip back into 4 digit territory today. I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Not liking the signs from that recent big red candle...

EDIT: Seeing shorts getting liquidated and large market buys, so maybe we are going up today. Too lazy to screencap Twitter right now.

I too have a feeling that we may see another 4 digit and like you I too sincerely hope that we do not go to that route. Observing now @ $10,390 so we can hope a quick recovery.

[JSRAW]

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

[strawbs]

Wow, what a lot of silliness.

Complaining about the merit giving process on an obscure¹ corner of the interweb? I mean, merits are all good and fun and everything, but the day you start to give a flying fuck about approval from strangers² on the internet, is the day you need to go and slap yourself harshly with a wet fish.

And if you don't like a particular obscure³ corner of the interweb, go hang somewhere else. It's a big place.

I hardly ever go to any other part of the forum, only the WO really. I don't post too much here either, hence a low post to years active ratio. But that's fine. After many years, the characters become familiar. It's also a good place to pick up info sometimes.

And it has haikus.

¹no offence meant here
²no offence meant here either
³no offence meant here

In all their beautiful forms

Much love
#nohomo
#haikulove
#WOlove

And in the spirit of not giving a fuck about merits, I'll give my remaining 20 smerits to the best haiku (in my humble opinion) posted this coming Sunday.

# need more haikus

[JSRAW]

@Bob FPS players are gamer in your opinion?  if yes then I do have more than 15k hours of experience in TF2, COD and CS... to add some bonus  i worked in all 3 games..

FPS players are definitely gamers. Some of the most hardcore.

I'm entirely burnt out on the FPS genre... for... (ASSERT THROWN: OPSEC VIOLATION). Mostly enjoy playing ARPG's now.

LIkewise ( minus RPG) when i left Valve.

Watch out if you are into DOTA, its addictive af.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

I have no clue what am I doing here. Lost track. May be I will need one of your JS exclusive summary LOL

[Last of the V8s]

It's also a good place to pick up info sometimes.

you do know he's a married man?

[nullius]

Here is my latest Price Orientation Oscillation Prediction analysis. I hope some find it helpful. Consistent with the mathematical trend of the last ~3 years, this looks like another great price point to strongly short with high leverage. I have confirmed this analysis with the strongest science available so far.

Your argument could be stronger if you didn’t wreathe what’s at best educated guesswork in grand pronouncements about “the strongest science”.  Such rhetoric is a scientifically accurate indicator of quackery.

Furthermore, playing devil’s advocate, even if your predictions were correct, “to strongly short with high leverage” is a most excellent means to be wiped out on grounds that “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.  Plenty of speculators have lost their shirts with highly leveraged shorts on fundamentally worthless shitcoins.  Which Bitcoin is not.

This goes far beyond a bearish SELL pronouncement.  Too-emphatically urging, with claims of “the strongest science”, that people should jump into a position of potential losses limited only by the amount that they can put up for margin calls—cui bono?