Anyone here with any updates on shipping for the first batch, please post anything you hear as it comes in. I'm sure many in this thread are as excited as I am.
In the meantime I figured we might as well run some numbers again to try to estimate Dash/X11 difficulty in December as a result of these D3's coming online. I know we have visited this topic in this thread already, so I will try to include the data from previous estimates.
I'd like to do three versions, the first being a worst case/pessimistic estimate, second a best case/optimistic estimate, and a third 'medium' estimate which is an average of the two together (roughly in the middle)
Please feel free anyone to check my math and correct me where I make mistakes as I'm sure I will.
Lets start with some quick general information for those who may be new here:
1 kH/s is 1,000 hashes per second (sometimes mistakenly written KH/s). 1 MH/s is1,000,000 hashes per second. 1 GH/s is 1,000,000,000 hashes per second. 1 TH/s is 1,000,000,000,000 hashes per second.
1 kH/s = 1000
1 MH/s = 1,000,000
1 GH/s = 1,000,000,000
1 TH/s = 1,000,000,000,000
Global hashrate at the time of this writing according to this link:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/dash-hashrate.htmlis 38.7 TH/s
Each D3 hashes (approximatley) at a rate of 15GH/s.
This correlates to 67 D3 units hashing equate to one TH/s addition to the global hashrate.
If we divide the current global hashrate by the hashrate of D3's, we see that it would take 2479 D3 units running to create that same global hashrate.
Another way to put it is if 2479 D3's were to come online right now the global hashrate would effectivley double.
Doubling the global hashrate would also double the difficulty and reduce profitability by half.
This of course does not take into account the other X11 coins that can be mined, and it would not be reasonable to expect all the D3's coming out to mine only dash, but for simplification I will only use dash for these calculations.
We have seen a total of 10 batches of D3's go on sale (that we know of) for delivery ranging from late September to Late November. As other have pointed out in this thread, by looking at the checkout page on the bitmain site we have been able to estimate in a rough way the amount of D3 units available in each batch. As Ross from CryptoCrane points out, we do not know how many of these units are actually paid for after checkout, but it stands to reason because of the high demand for these most people who are able to get thgouh the checkout process will follow through and send payment. (Also we will for the sake of this first 'worst case scenario' that the majority of units ordered are being paid for).
Based on the total number of units for each batch that we have collected in this thread previously, it is reasonable (and again a 'worst case scenario' in terms of difficulty) we could reasonably estimate that the average number of D3 units available across all 10 batches could be as high as 20k units per batch. Of course the data shows that the number of units available varies, with some batches having higher numbers and some being lower. 20k units I am asserting as a reasonable 'worst case' scenario average across all batches thus far that we know of.
There may have been several batches available on the Chinese version of the site that were not mentioned on social media, by my count however there have been 10 total batches for sure.
Now lets run some quick numbers on a profitability calculator here:
https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/dash?HashingPower=15&HashingUnit=GH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1200&CostPerkWh=0.21I assuming an electrical rate of 21 cents per Kwh (again, being 'pessimistic')
At the time of this writing, one D3 would yeild $2,604 per month. (already WAY down from when these units were announced by bitmain, as many have mentioned here in this thread this number has been as high as $7k a month)
source:
https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/dash?HashingPower=15&HashingUnit=GH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1200&CostPerkWh=0.21More quick math: If difficulty merely doubles, that comes out to $1300 a month.
If difficulty increases tenfold, thats $260 a month
If difficulty increases a hundredfold, it would cost more to run the miner in electricity than it would mine, and the D3 would operate at a net loss of over $178 per month.
Worst case scenario here, is that by December of this year 200,000 D3's come online, which would add 2985TH/s to current global hashrate. Adding that to the current global hashrate for dash of 38.7 TH/s we get 3023.7 TH/s, which would be an increase in hashrate of a multiplier of 78.13 (what I mean is, take the estimated global hashrate of 3023.7 and divide it by the current global hashrate of 38.7)
Based on this (worst case) scenario each D3 would mine 33.38 per month before the cost of electricity.
So this is my first estimate, which I call 'worst case' estimate for dash difficulty by December. Before I try to do a 'best case' what do you guys think of my math thus far? I'm sure I have overlooked things. Any and all thoughts are much appreciated.
On a quick side note, I was able to put in an order last night for 4 D3's on the bitmain site, but based on this math I don't think I will be sending the wire, and I'll just let the order expire.
Wow...
Thanks for the math -- I had no idea it was that outrageous.
The one positive from all this, however -- if it happens the way you're hypothesizing it might -- is that if the global hashrate spikes this high, it really significantly increases the security of the network.
Beyond that, I wonder who is going to run all these miners -- that's a whole lot of electricity. We know how the bitcoin miners work, they're getting their electricity mostly for free.
