supert
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July 03, 2013, 12:10:12 PM |
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The price is moderating, just dropped below 5
yup, new direct auction wall with over 300 shares at 5. Aha...ok that explains it Sorry:) 327 at 5btc left in the auction thread. That wall might hold for a while if we get a div under .02 but I don't think that will happen. Either way should be gone in 48 hours or so. aww... didn't time my auction very well then did I?
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Rival
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July 03, 2013, 12:20:25 PM |
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aww... didn't time my auction very well then did I?
Better than if you had done it a month ago.
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TsuyokuNaritai
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July 03, 2013, 12:25:55 PM |
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aww... didn't time my auction very well then did I?
Better than if you had done it a month ago. But probably not as good as if you'd done it a month from now.
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nubbins
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July 03, 2013, 01:54:58 PM |
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ASICMINER-PT 8 mins ago Buy 14 5.138899 71.944586 ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif)
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binaryFate
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Still wild and free
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July 03, 2013, 02:00:36 PM |
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ASICMINER-PT 8 mins ago Buy 14 5.138899 71.944586 ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif) All this can even be one single buy: ASICMINER-PT 13 mins ago Buy 14 5.138899 71.944586 ASICMINER-PT 13 mins ago Buy 1 5.138897 5.138897 ASICMINER-PT 13 mins ago Buy 1 5.138000 5.138000 ASICMINER-PT 13 mins ago Buy 1 5.100000 5.100000 ASICMINER-PT 13 mins ago Buy 2 5.099000 10.198000 Incredible, momentum remains high but usually it's slightly bearish before dividends...
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Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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neilol
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July 03, 2013, 02:03:59 PM |
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Just curious - has anyone done the math for % return in $$ for IPO buyers at BTC5 a share factoring in rise in bitcoin price?
I'm too lazy and at work - it has to be insane
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binaryFate
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July 03, 2013, 02:06:15 PM |
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Just curious - has anyone done the math for % return in $$ for IPO buyers at BTC5 a share factoring in rise in bitcoin price?
I'm too lazy and at work - it has to be insane
From AM share price: x50 From BTC/USD: ~x10 That's about x500. I don't have word for this.
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Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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kokojie
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July 03, 2013, 02:06:38 PM |
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Just curious - has anyone done the math for % return in $$ for IPO buyers at BTC5 a share factoring in rise in bitcoin price?
I'm too lazy and at work - it has to be insane
Bitcoin went from $10 to $80 now Share price went from 0.10 to 5.xx so I guess it's a 40000% profit, in USD terms.
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btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
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gog1
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July 03, 2013, 02:12:11 PM |
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Don't forget the dividend, over 0.35 BTC over the course of the past couple months.
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nycgoat
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July 03, 2013, 02:26:00 PM |
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Yah I don't care what the div is, I would much rather see this hold at 5 BTC to show some stability before the next rally, or else people live in a constant state of bubble feeling, which is no good for liquidity and good news/plans ATM.
THIS
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binaryFate
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July 03, 2013, 02:35:15 PM |
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"AM, the only investment in BTC world that is so successful that shareholders want it to stop rising and chill a bit"
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Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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miTgiB
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Du hast
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July 03, 2013, 02:35:58 PM |
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Yah I don't care what the div is, I would much rather see this hold at 5 BTC to show some stability before the next rally, or else people live in a constant state of bubble feeling, which is no good for liquidity and good news/plans ATM.
THIS NOT THIS If bubble is this prevalent on everyone's mind, it probably is not a bubble. It is when people think it can do no wrong and the sky is the limit I will start to worry.
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Ozymandias
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July 03, 2013, 02:36:51 PM |
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"AM, the only investment in BTC world that is so successful that shareholders want it to stop rising and chill a bit"
Literally just wrote something along those lines and when I hit "post" I got that "Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted. You may wish to review your post. " Creepy-awesome.
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Vycid
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♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
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July 03, 2013, 02:38:06 PM |
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This is a bubble.
Anyone saying otherwise has ulterior motives (they probably still own a lot of stock).
It's clear as day. Look at the parabolic trajectory. Consider the lack of short selling. Have you guys already forgotten Bitcoin in March? People were saying much the same things about Bitcoin then as they are saying about ASICMiner now.
Everyone is quoting the "26% APR" as a validation of ASICMiner's share price. First off, 26% APR is not that great a return for a super-unstable security traded with a super-unstable currency.
But, more importantly, ASICMiner's current dividends are inflated for three reasons.
One: because people will pay more per terahash while the difficulty is low. That's kind of obvious: your potential return is a lot higher per terahash while the difficulty is low, so therefore AM can charge a lot more. That effect is quickly subsiding, as evidenced by AM's prices.
Two: there is no serious competition yet. Beyond the organic competition anticipated from Avalon, BFL, KncMiner etc getting their shit together, at this point the sales volume of miners is large enough for an established mid-size electronics manufacturer to mosey on over here and embarrass AM price-wise.
Three: electricity cost. Believe it or not, the location of AM (Guangdong province, China) is not the cheapest place for electricity. Don't quote this figure, but I believe it comes out to about $0.06/kWh. As competition ramps up, money getting in on a piece of that 26% APR will launch huge farms in places like Washington state or Siberia where the price is $0.01/kWh - and they will do so by licensing the BitFury chip, for example, not by buying expensive AM hardware. AM will have trouble competing.
I've sold all my shares. I'm now buying puts with the sole intention of playing the downside. Just like at $266 with Bitcoin, there will be a hiccup - probably a bad dividend week - and this bubble will pop, and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money, very very fast.
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bobboooiie
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July 03, 2013, 02:44:16 PM |
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Did you just copy pasted post from AM thread when we hit 2 BTC ? Its like word for word As much as I dont deny possible correction its 100% not a "bubble", poeple throw that word too loosely around here. Even if we fall 50% of the price of AM share I cannot imagine price of it staying at 2,5 for a long, I sure would buy a shit ton at that price
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TsuyokuNaritai
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July 03, 2013, 02:47:46 PM |
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Anyone saying otherwise has ulterior motives (they probably still own a lot of stock).
Might be worth pointing out that for quite a while now, Vycid has been busy buying puts on ASICMiner as fast as he can spam the board readers to writing them. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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ThickAsThieves
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July 03, 2013, 02:49:48 PM |
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One: because people will pay more per terahash while the difficulty is low. That's kind of obvious: your potential return is a lot higher per terahash while the difficulty is low, so therefore AM can charge a lot more. That effect is quickly subsiding, as evidenced by AM's prices.
Two: there is no serious competition yet. Beyond the organic competition anticipated from Avalon, BFL, KncMiner etc getting their shit together, at this point the sales volume of miners is large enough for an established mid-size electronics manufacturer to mosey on over here and embarrass AM price-wise.
Three: electricity cost. Believe it or not, the location of AM (Guangdong province, China) is not the cheapest place for electricity. Don't quote this figure, but I believe it comes out to about $0.06/kWh. As competition ramps up, money getting in on a piece of that 26% APR will launch huge farms in places like Washington state or Siberia where the price is $0.01/kWh - and they will do so by licensing the BitFury chip, for example, not by buying expensive AM hardware. AM will have trouble competing.
All 3 of your points are counteracted by simply being the fastest to release the latest tech miners in bulk. The real risk is if miners stop buying on the whole, like if bitcoin becomes worth $20 or such.
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binaryFate
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July 03, 2013, 02:53:26 PM |
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One: because people will pay more per terahash while the difficulty is low. That's kind of obvious: your potential return is a lot higher per terahash while the difficulty is low, so therefore AM can charge a lot more. That effect is quickly subsiding, as evidenced by AM's prices.
I don't see the relevance of price per terahash. When difficulty will rise, terahash per units will rise too, next generation chips will be more powerfull for probably roughly similar price. Income then can remain similar even when difficulty rise. Two: there is no serious competition yet. Beyond the organic competition anticipated from Avalon, BFL, KncMiner etc getting their shit together, at this point the sales volume of miners is large enough for an established mid-size electronics manufacturer to mosey on over here and embarrass AM price-wise.
Yes, there is no competition. And it will remains like this for at least few months. People know this and this is reflected in the price. When competition will come serious, AM will have a large head-on, reflected in the price too. Three: electricity cost. Believe it or not, the location of AM (Guangdong province, China) is not the cheapest place for electricity. Don't quote this figure, but I believe it comes out to about $0.06/kWh. As competition ramps up, money getting in on a piece of that 26% APR will launch huge farms in places like Washington state or Siberia where the price is $0.01/kWh - and they will do so by licensing the BitFury chip, for example, not by buying expensive AM hardware. AM will have trouble competing.
AM has already revealed plans to legally move away from China, with their actual financial power, I don't think they couldn't move server farms away, wherever they will be happy with electricity costs, climate and regulations. I've sold all my shares.
This makes you sound just as biased as the other people in the case you mentioned: Anyone saying otherwise has ulterior motives (they probably still own a lot of stock).
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Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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Eric Muyser
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You can't kill math.
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July 03, 2013, 02:55:26 PM |
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This is a bubble.
...
Cost of manufacturing heavily outweighs cost of electricity, especially as they move to nextgen. They have proven they can do this very successfully anyway. So Bitfury came up with a working chip. So what? Avalon and BFL have working chips. Where are they? Not shipping at a rate high enough to compete, as you've said, AM has a monopoly, but it's for a reason. You have a substancial amount of puts, and you have 3 months to convince people it's a bubble and try and pop it to reep the benefits of your efforts. Saying it's just us who say it's not a bubble, that is right on par with value (OUR OPINION OF ACCEPTABLE RISK) with ulterior motives is bullshit serving your own motives.
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@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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ianp
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July 03, 2013, 02:56:47 PM |
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It's probably better to consider price per network hash %, rather than price per gigahash/terahash/etc. when it comes to evaluating mining equipment available for purchase today.
Doing this more or less normalizes the cost for a given time.
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