ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[supert]

The price is moderating, just dropped below 5

yup, new direct auction wall with over 300 shares at 5.

Aha...ok that explains it

Sorry:)

327 at 5btc left in the auction thread.

That wall might hold for a while if we get a div under .02 but I don't think that will happen. Either way should be gone in 48 hours or so. 

aww... didn't time my auction very well then did I?

[Rival]

aww... didn't time my auction very well then did I?

Better than if you had done it a month ago.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

aww... didn't time my auction very well then did I?

Better than if you had done it a month ago.

But probably not as good as if you'd done it a month from now.

[nubbins]

ASICMINER-PT   8 mins ago   Buy   14   5.138899   71.944586

 

[binaryFate]

ASICMINER-PT   8 mins ago   Buy   14   5.138899   71.944586

 

All this can even be one single buy:

ASICMINER-PT    13 mins ago    Buy    14    5.138899    71.944586
ASICMINER-PT    13 mins ago    Buy    1    5.138897    5.138897
ASICMINER-PT    13 mins ago    Buy    1    5.138000    5.138000
ASICMINER-PT    13 mins ago    Buy    1    5.100000    5.100000
ASICMINER-PT    13 mins ago    Buy    2    5.099000    10.198000


Incredible, momentum remains high but usually it's slightly bearish before dividends...

[neilol]

Just curious - has anyone done the math for % return in $$ for IPO buyers at BTC5 a share factoring in rise in bitcoin price?

I'm too lazy and at work - it has to be insane

[binaryFate]

Just curious - has anyone done the math for % return in $$ for IPO buyers at BTC5 a share factoring in rise in bitcoin price?

I'm too lazy and at work - it has to be insane

From AM share price: x50
From BTC/USD: ~x10

That's about x500. I don't have word for this.

[kokojie]

Just curious - has anyone done the math for % return in $$ for IPO buyers at BTC5 a share factoring in rise in bitcoin price?

I'm too lazy and at work - it has to be insane

Bitcoin went from $10 to $80 now

Share price went from 0.10 to 5.xx

so I guess it's a 40000% profit, in USD terms.

[gog1]

Don't forget the dividend, over 0.35 BTC over the course of the past couple months.

[nycgoat]

Yah I don't care what the div is, I would much rather see this hold at 5 BTC to show some stability before the next rally, or else people live in a constant state of bubble feeling, which is no good for liquidity and good news/plans ATM.

THIS

[binaryFate]

"AM, the only investment in BTC world that is so successful that shareholders want it to stop rising and chill a bit"
 

[miTgiB]

Yah I don't care what the div is, I would much rather see this hold at 5 BTC to show some stability before the next rally, or else people live in a constant state of bubble feeling, which is no good for liquidity and good news/plans ATM.

THIS

NOT THIS

If bubble is this prevalent on everyone's mind, it probably is not a bubble.  It is when people think it can do no wrong and the sky is the limit I will start to worry.

[Ozymandias]

"AM, the only investment in BTC world that is so successful that shareholders want it to stop rising and chill a bit"
 

Literally just wrote something along those lines and when I hit "post" I got that "Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted. You may wish to review your post. "  Creepy-awesome.

[Vycid]

This is a bubble.

Anyone saying otherwise has ulterior motives (they probably still own a lot of stock).

It's clear as day. Look at the parabolic trajectory. Consider the lack of short selling. Have you guys already forgotten Bitcoin in March? People were saying much the same things about Bitcoin then as they are saying about ASICMiner now.

Everyone is quoting the "26% APR" as a validation of ASICMiner's share price. First off, 26% APR is not that great a return for a super-unstable security traded with a super-unstable currency.

But, more importantly, ASICMiner's current dividends are inflated for three reasons.

One: because people will pay more per terahash while the difficulty is low. That's kind of obvious: your potential return is a lot higher per terahash while the difficulty is low, so therefore AM can charge a lot more. That effect is quickly subsiding, as evidenced by AM's prices.

Two: there is no serious competition yet. Beyond the organic competition anticipated from Avalon, BFL, KncMiner etc getting their shit together, at this point the sales volume of miners is large enough for an established mid-size electronics manufacturer to mosey on over here and embarrass AM price-wise.

Three: electricity cost. Believe it or not, the location of AM (Guangdong province, China) is not the cheapest place for electricity. Don't quote this figure, but I believe it comes out to about $0.06/kWh. As competition ramps up, money getting in on a piece of that 26% APR will launch huge farms in places like Washington state or Siberia where the price is $0.01/kWh - and they will do so by licensing the BitFury chip, for example, not by buying expensive AM hardware. AM will have trouble competing.

I've sold all my shares. I'm now buying puts with the sole intention of playing the downside. Just like at $266 with Bitcoin, there will be a hiccup - probably a bad dividend week - and this bubble will pop, and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money, very very fast.

[bobboooiie]

Did you just copy pasted post from AM thread when we hit 2BTC ? Its like word for word
As much as I dont deny possible correction its 100% not a "bubble", poeple throw that word too loosely around here. Even if we fall 50% of the price of AM share I cannot imagine price of it staying at 2,5 for a long, I sure would buy a shit ton at that price

[TsuyokuNaritai]

Anyone saying otherwise has ulterior motives (they probably still own a lot of stock).

Might be worth pointing out that for quite a while now, Vycid has been busy buying puts on ASICMiner as fast as he can spam the board readers to writing them.

[ThickAsThieves]

One: because people will pay more per terahash while the difficulty is low. That's kind of obvious: your potential return is a lot higher per terahash while the difficulty is low, so therefore AM can charge a lot more. That effect is quickly subsiding, as evidenced by AM's prices.

Two: there is no serious competition yet. Beyond the organic competition anticipated from Avalon, BFL, KncMiner etc getting their shit together, at this point the sales volume of miners is large enough for an established mid-size electronics manufacturer to mosey on over here and embarrass AM price-wise.

Three: electricity cost. Believe it or not, the location of AM (Guangdong province, China) is not the cheapest place for electricity. Don't quote this figure, but I believe it comes out to about $0.06/kWh. As competition ramps up, money getting in on a piece of that 26% APR will launch huge farms in places like Washington state or Siberia where the price is $0.01/kWh - and they will do so by licensing the BitFury chip, for example, not by buying expensive AM hardware. AM will have trouble competing.

All 3 of your points are counteracted by simply being the fastest to release the latest tech miners in bulk.

The real risk is if miners stop buying on the whole, like if bitcoin becomes worth $20 or such.

[binaryFate]

One: because people will pay more per terahash while the difficulty is low. That's kind of obvious: your potential return is a lot higher per terahash while the difficulty is low, so therefore AM can charge a lot more. That effect is quickly subsiding, as evidenced by AM's prices.

I don't see the relevance of price per terahash. When difficulty will rise, terahash per units will rise too, next generation chips will be more powerfull for probably roughly similar price. Income then can remain similar even when difficulty rise.  

Two: there is no serious competition yet. Beyond the organic competition anticipated from Avalon, BFL, KncMiner etc getting their shit together, at this point the sales volume of miners is large enough for an established mid-size electronics manufacturer to mosey on over here and embarrass AM price-wise.

Yes, there is no competition. And it will remains like this for at least few months. People know this and this is reflected in the price. When competition will come serious, AM will have a large head-on, reflected in the price too.

Three: electricity cost. Believe it or not, the location of AM (Guangdong province, China) is not the cheapest place for electricity. Don't quote this figure, but I believe it comes out to about $0.06/kWh. As competition ramps up, money getting in on a piece of that 26% APR will launch huge farms in places like Washington state or Siberia where the price is $0.01/kWh - and they will do so by licensing the BitFury chip, for example, not by buying expensive AM hardware. AM will have trouble competing.

AM has already revealed plans to legally move away from China, with their actual financial power, I don't think they couldn't move server farms away, wherever they will be happy with electricity costs, climate and regulations.

I've sold all my shares.

This makes you sound just as biased as the other people in the case you mentioned:

Anyone saying otherwise has ulterior motives (they probably still own a lot of stock).

[Eric Muyser]

This is a bubble.

...

Cost of manufacturing heavily outweighs cost of electricity, especially as they move to nextgen. They have proven they can do this very successfully anyway. So Bitfury came up with a working chip. So what? Avalon and BFL have working chips. Where are they? Not shipping at a rate high enough to compete, as you've said, AM has a monopoly, but it's for a reason.

You have a substancial amount of puts, and you have 3 months to convince people it's a bubble and try and pop it to reep the benefits of your efforts.

Saying it's just us who say it's not a bubble, that is right on par with value (OUR OPINION OF ACCEPTABLE RISK) with ulterior motives is bullshit serving your own motives.

[ianp]

It's probably better to consider price per network hash %, rather than price per gigahash/terahash/etc. when it comes to evaluating mining equipment available for purchase today.

Doing this more or less normalizes the cost for a given time.