Analysis

[hdbuck]

As long as china keeps pumping, Sky is the limit!!

[dEBRUYNE]

Closing half of longs. Bubble indicator says rally out of fuel (however could continue for some time).

On bitfinex someone opened ~7k in shorts (see -> https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc) between 17:30 & 18:30 (UTC+1). This could very well fuel a breakout. Furthermore, it's kind of a risky strategy since the market is, although overbought, pretty resilient in my opinion.

According to bfxdata, those ~7k in shorts are not closed yet.

[Afrikoin]

Some bear is going to get slaughtered on Finex with that rather large short position that was taken. We blew past the previous high from mid summer again today.

likely did just get smashed.

That being said, I am watching closely for a potential shooting star pattern to develop here.

me too.

Open to it forming a top as high as $400s, that pulling down, forming a shooting star

[eatmyshorts1]

I am dedicated to bitcoin. Bitcoin changed my life. No other assets.

Moi aussi.

Me too.

-Posted from Argentina

This is why I am bullish. Not in it for day trades. I think we're witnessing the adoption/regulatory acceptance of a global phenomenon that's only going to become more widely used as the financial markets crash, yet again.

[Zarathustra]

Master, you give mixed signals, I am confused.

This is still @masterluc's big picture. He didn't change it since then. Therefore his 'bearish' signals are just valid for the small Elliott-picture. The big one still looks hyperbullish.

[lebing]

unless volume picks up this will just end up as a weak double top.

[Dilla]

unless volume picks up this will just end up as a weak double top.

Double top... Where? Recently, or ATH?  billion dollars in volume wasn't enough for you?

[masterluc]

I don't see fuel except volume to escape from this trend now with current daily overbought conditions. Even weekly are close to overbought.

If price will escape I'll be much surprised.

[Dilla]

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

[jehst]

Nov 1 is decision day for me.

If we're going sideways or stalling on November 1, I will take profits and watch closely.

If we're still going up strongly on November 1, blasting through 350 on Bitstamp, then I'm staying in to see what happens.

[masterluc]

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

Overbought conditions usually detected using oscillators. The most known oscillator is Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is overbought >70 and oversold <30.

Daily RSI is at 2 years high, almost at 2013 bubble value.

Next one is Slow Stohastic (SS). Same as RSI (70/30).

Next ADX. Overbought or oversold >40 depending on what greater +Dl or -Dl.

All of those are close to 2013 top values.

[Dilla]

Thanks

[Wekkel]

Overbought means nothing when bubble. That is the trouble with oscillators when trending. The question is whether Bitcoin is still oscillating or starting a new trend. When in doubt, wait and see.

[Livermore]

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

Overbought conditions usually detected using oscillators. The most known oscillator is Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is overbought >70 and oversold <30.

Daily RSI is at 2 years high, almost at 2013 bubble value.

Next one is Slow Stohastic (SS). Same as RSI (70/30).

Next ADX. Overbought or oversold >40 depending on what greater +Dl or -Dl.

All of those are close to 2013 top values.

The question now is if BTC is going to continue to range at a price 70% below the all time high 2 years ago, or if the bear market is finally over, 2 years of coiled spring price compression is going to explode, and we are entering a new trend.  

If new trend, need to switch to trend/momentum indicators. Because Oscillators, as we saw in 2011 and 2013, can stay MaxOverbought for months and are not useful in that case.


"Wyckoff discovered during this observation period was that when the market began to flatten out after a long decline this would usually lead to an
upward trend for the market."  - How Legendary Traders Made Millions

[zimmah]

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

in my opinion bitcoin shits on overbought signals, there's not such thing as overbuying bitcoin.

[zimmah]

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

Overbought conditions usually detected using oscillators. The most known oscillator is Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is overbought >70 and oversold <30.

Daily RSI is at 2 years high, almost at 2013 bubble value.

Next one is Slow Stohastic (SS). Same as RSI (70/30).

Next ADX. Overbought or oversold >40 depending on what greater +Dl or -Dl.

All of those are close to 2013 top values.

how can all of them be so high after all this sideways trading? That doesnt make any sense at all.

If those signals are reliable we will never break out of $350, which is obviously going to happen pretty soon anyway (before next year at least).

[hdbuck]

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

in my opinion bitcoin shits on overbought signals, there's not such thing as overbuying bitcoin.

ahahah true story

[masterluc]

Does someone know what means that volume on huobi on bitcoinwisdom? It shows unreal data like trade 1000s btc per minute and millions per week.

[hdbuck]

Does someone know what means that volume on huobi on bitcoinwisdom? It shows unreal data like trade 1000s btc per minute and millions per week.

fake '0-fees' volume?

gee, it completely outperform the volume from the 2013 bubble, i got 3,7+ million spike on the weekly chart





or do they have some sorta HFT going on there maybe?

[masterluc]

Huobi and okcoin summary traded 6kk coins this week. This is almost half of all issued bitcoins. Can that be true?