rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Rakitich]

What does rpietila say abotu these crazy 5000+ predictions?

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[rpietila]

This was well received elsewhere:

The thing that is going on with bitcoin price, iirc, is called "price rigidity". When an equilibrium is found, two forces enter into play:
- the longer the price stays stable, the more people perceive that it is a "fair" price and get used to accepting it
- the longer the price stays stable, it eats the available supply (or demand) of goods at the said price behind the scenes. When the other side is collectively tapped out, the price reacts violently.

With things like oil, the situation may play out over decades due to the slow investment cycle. With Bitcoin, the periods of rigidity have historically lasted a few months at most, and always corrected up.

An interesting tenet to Monero, it has now oscillated in a narrowing range. A possibility is that we'll see a longish time (with Monero, a few weeks perhaps) of apparent stability around 0.005 until one side is exhausted. Then the ensuing correction will be in the 1 order of magnitude range. Guess the direction

[BitChick]

This was well received elsewhere:

The thing that is going on with bitcoin price, iirc, is called "price rigidity". When an equilibrium is found, two forces enter into play:
- the longer the price stays stable, the more people perceive that it is a "fair" price and get used to accepting it
- the longer the price stays stable, it eats the available supply (or demand) of goods at the said price behind the scenes. When the other side is collectively tapped out, the price reacts violently.

With things like oil, the situation may play out over decades due to the slow investment cycle. With Bitcoin, the periods of rigidity have historically lasted a few months at most, and always corrected up.

An interesting tenet to Monero, it has now oscillated in a narrowing range. A possibility is that we'll see a longish time (with Monero, a few weeks perhaps) of apparent stability around 0.005 until one side is exhausted. Then the ensuing correction will be in the 1 order of magnitude range. Guess the direction

Violent reaction?  That sounds good!

For those of us that have been through a couple "bubbles" we now how that feels!  It is crazy!!!

[MNDan]

If the price is $620 now, what is "an order of magnitude"?

[darlidada]

If the price is $620 now, what is "an order of magnitude"?

10 times ?

[rpietila]

If the price is $620 now, what is "an order of magnitude"?

10 times ?

Order of magnitude == 10 times.

For BTC, the plateaus have been observed at 0.005, 1, 5, 12, 120, 620.

EDIT: if it plays out according to the pattern, the next one would be muted at around the ATH ~1200, and then the superbubble would ensue.

[hdbuck]

If the price is $620 now, what is "an order of magnitude"?

10 times ?

Order of magnitude == 10 times.

For BTC, the plateaus have been observed at 0.005, 1, 5, 12, 120, 620.

EDIT: if it plays out according to the pattern, the next one would be muted at around the ATH ~1200, and then the superbubble would ensue.

rpietila, dunno if you follow masterluc's thread but if you do, i'd love your views about his couple years bear/flat market (as in not breaking previous ATH) prediction.

[dnaleor]

Violent reaction?  That sounds good!

For those of us that have been through a couple "bubbles" we now how that feels!  It is crazy!!!

It's always an amazing ride, but i'm not very productive during bubbles (I've seen the last 2).
All I do is check charts, count my money, draw lines, post smileys, tell all my friends how I will be a millionaire within a few years and dream about anarchy  

To the people who never saw it happen, it's just surreal. it starts with some wild swings passing the all time high. That fact already is fantastic. All time highs that are broken is "mind blown". After that you can see your money gain 50% in matter of days, pullbacks of 25% or more. sometimes you money can double in a few hours

calling it "crazy" is an understatement. It's inimaginable if you never felt it  

edit: I remember I went to the hairdresser and came back home. Told my dad I "earned" 4000 EUR in those 30 min
You should have seen the look on his face

[BitChick]

Violent reaction?  That sounds good!

For those of us that have been through a couple "bubbles" we now how that feels!  It is crazy!!!

It's always an amazing ride, but i'm not very productive during bubbles (I've seen the last 2).
All I do is check charts, count my money, draw lines, post smileys, tell all my friends how I will be a millionaire within a few years and dream about anarchy  

To the people who never saw it happen, it's just surreal. it starts with some wild swings passing the all time high. That fact already is fantastic. All time highs that are broken is "mind blown". After that you can see your money gain 50% in matter of days, pullbacks of 25% or more. sometimes you money can double in a few hours

calling it "crazy" is an understatement. It's inimaginable if you never felt it  

edit: I remember I went to the hairdresser and came back home. Told my dad I "earned" 4000 EUR in those 30 min
You should have seen the look on his face

It is hard not to be glued to the computer during the quick rise in price.  I would take a shower and then afterwards look at the charts and say, "Wow.  I just made $100 taking a quick shower!"    Of course, as a holder, much of those gains were lost.   Easy come, easy go I guess. 

[wachtwoord]

Violent reaction?  That sounds good!

For those of us that have been through a couple "bubbles" we now how that feels!  It is crazy!!!

It's always an amazing ride, but i'm not very productive during bubbles (I've seen the last 2).
All I do is check charts, count my money, draw lines, post smileys, tell all my friends how I will be a millionaire within a few years and dream about anarchy  

To the people who never saw it happen, it's just surreal. it starts with some wild swings passing the all time high. That fact already is fantastic. All time highs that are broken is "mind blown". After that you can see your money gain 50% in matter of days, pullbacks of 25% or more. sometimes you money can double in a few hours

calling it "crazy" is an understatement. It's inimaginable if you never felt it  

edit: I remember I went to the hairdresser and came back home. Told my dad I "earned" 4000 EUR in those 30 min
You should have seen the look on his face

It is hard not to be glued to the computer during the quick rise in price.  I would take a shower and then afterwards look at the charts and say, "Wow.  I just made $100 taking a quick shower!"    Of course, as a holder, much of those gains were lost.   Easy come, easy go I guess. 

Waking up to a huge price increase a couple of weeks in a row.

[Bios Optimus]

6 new hedge funds look to gain exposure to bitcoin market.   http://www.coindesk.com/6-new-hedge-funds-seeking-bitcoin-returns/

[Pruden]

I don't like this a tiny bit. Bid and ask sums have shown the opposite trend to the may consolidation. There is no reason to expect the breakout will be in the same direction.

[rpietila]

I don't like this a tiny bit. Bid and ask sums have shown the opposite trend to the may consolidation. There is no reason to expect the breakout will be in the same direction.

The price is a function of the economy, and hardly can we say that Bitcoin's utility, adoption, etc. are in a downward trend. The price, however, is in the low end of the trendline channel, exactly as it was in December-12 or September-13. Based on this, any sustained decline from the current levels defies gravity.

Manipulating bid/ask is trivial for the entities that steer Bitcoin price (and I have no reason to believe such entities would not exist). A last shakeoff is something that might happen sparked by an event similar to the Silkroad(1) bust in October 3, 2013. But thinking that a flashcrash is required to ignite the next rally would be a little superstitious.

[giveBTCpls]

I'm bullish and patient for both BTC and XMR. The only reason is I couldn't fill up my stash yet.
I don't complain if we hang around 3-digits until the end of this year.

Im holding my 60 XMR like there's no tomorrow. I think there's no way the new ceiling is going to be anywhere to the current price. I have seen this happen a lot of times in the few legitimate altcoins as they evolve on price. One of the exceptions being Namecoin tho. Not amussed at how that's turning out. I was about to invest and looking back at it it seems like it was an insane peak that's now deflating.

[giveBTCpls]

rpietila, i've been commenting this with colleages and they all agree that this chart of the Microsoft price evolution isn't equiparable to the possible Bitcoin evolution because they say you can't compare a private enterprise like Microsoft with Bitcoin which intends to be a currency a number of reasons... I could go on buy I want to ask why you think this graph can be compared with the BTC possible future:

[wachtwoord]

It cannot it's something completely different. However, it is a nice example of exponential growth that was not based on air but one of the best corporations in the world. That's all it is, an example of why exponential growth is not necessarily hokum.

[minerpumpkin]

I'll just pose this question here and in the regular FUD Wall Observer
Quick question: We have some decent support at 605 on Stamp. Will it hold or will we eat right through that?

[zby]

It looks like we broke that long term exponential channel.

[kodtycoon]

It looks like we broke that long term exponential channel.

very bad then? hasnt that happened before past bubbles?

[zby]

It looks like we broke that long term exponential channel.

very bad then? hasnt that happened before past bubbles?

Who knows - I would bet at least on a quick, but rather deep flash crash.

It happened in 2011 - but on a strong down trend - so it resulted in an even stronger down move. But now it is not yet definitive.