rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[luigi1111]

i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens)

edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1

Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal.

How do we do this?

i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets  
We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions?

edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC
If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you
If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me

Sure, no problem.

As far as escrow, I'm not sure how it works for 5 months, lol. If you're happy with a "gentlemen's bet", that's cool with me (I will deliver on my end; can find some references if you want). We could do something like http://www.futureme.org/ to remind us around Christmas time if you want.

Well... You don't really semm to have a trust rating. I generally trust people, but for betting I think an escrow is needed (unless we both have a high trust rating and are semi public figures)
I know an escrow who does it for free, it's the moderator from the dutch subforum, psychoticboy. He is very honest. If you want, we can take him. Although I would understand if you don't want him, because I already "know" him and you think he is "biased".

Maybe rpietila? After all, this is his topic

Yeah, I don't have a trust rating because I don't trade on BCT. I'm fine with Risto, if he wants to. Might be too much bother though. Otherwise we can use your guy.

ok, we'll wait if he responds to our request. If not, i'll send psychoticboy a message with you as cc.
He does the escrow for free, but appreciate tips. I'll pay the tip

Just to be clear before we proceed, the bet is whether Bitcoin will be worth (touch at any point) at least $5,000.01 by 00:00 GMT, Jan 1, 2015? If it breaks $5,000 any time between now and then, it can be payable immediately.

Sound good?

[1714482037]

1714482037

[1714482037]

1714482037

[1714482037]

1714482037

[1714482037]

1714482037

[1714482037]

1714482037

[BetMoose]

What source for price would you prefer to use?

[luigi1111]

What source for price would you prefer to use?

Oh, I use this: https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD but really don't care.

[BetMoose]

Just curious, would you just like the 2 of you privately or would you care to open it to other users (pooled betting)?

[luigi1111]

Just curious, would you just like the 2 of you privately or would you care to open it to other users (pooled betting)?

If you mean would I be willing to do more of this bet if someone were to take the other side, most certainly. I think dnaleor stated he's as big as he wants be to at this point.

Edit: we're kinda cluttering up the thread with this talk though. Carry on...

[BetMoose]

I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

[luigi1111]

I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

Looks pretty nice. I'm fine with this if he is, but don't want to push him into using any particular service. If he answers here that he's fine using this, I'll deposit 0.2 pronto.

[molecular]

Why don't you use a trustless escrow service like one of these:

• bitrated.com
• bitescrow.org
• coinb.in/multisig/

If you like I can act as an arbitrator (it's technically impossible that I run away with your money)

I can only +1 this suggestion. This is bitcoin, why fiddle with this cumbersome trust stuff.

For a gentlemans bet, you can just use 2 of 2 multisig and not even use arbitration.

[giveBTCpls]

Lol at the comedy algorithm.
Well going back on top a bit, for these that do agree with that Microsoft chart and are making analogy to it saying we are about 5 years in on that graph... but really, how do you know? Like  the blockchain is compromised and everyone abandons BTC, or it gets superseded by a superior coin with better anonymous features... stuff like that. How are you guys so sure and calm sleeping millions of dollars (for these that do have a lot of BTC, not me... I can wait) while these could happen?

I'll try to answer. The blockchain is pretty much unhackable. It's been tried many times and on more than a few occasions all sorts of bo0th white hat and black hat hackers have tried. Nobody has so far succeeded. If quantum computers become a reality.. which is looking ever further away - this MAY change.

2nd. Because bitcoin is 'programmable' it can adopt a new feature if the Devs write it into the code.. and people adopt the new wallet.
Oh, and something called network effect.

Could it mimic technology as seen on some of the Cryptonite coins such as XMR? Im talking ring signatures for instance.

[Kipsy89]

So who's bullish around here? (Since this is risto's thread I expect everyone to be) But what are your current predictions for decision time or time for some decent train?

[dnaleor]

I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

[BitChick]

So who's bullish around here? (Since this is risto's thread I expect everyone to be) But what are your current predictions for decision time or time for some decent train?

(With my hand high in the air) ME ME ME ME!   

Always bullish, but a little impatient at this point.  I wish I could give Bitcoin a good kick right about now to get it started.  It isn't for lack of bringing some new investors either.  Just the past few weeks I have had many friends decide to buy, with quite substantial amount too.  And with Dell accepting it now?  What is keeping the price so stable I wonder? 

[EFS]

I'm bullish and patient for both BTC and XMR. The only reason is I couldn't fill up my stash yet.
I don't complain if we hang around 3-digits until the end of this year.

[BetMoose]

I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!

[dnaleor]

I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!

the bet was
*I deposit 0.1 and if I win, I get my deposit back + 0.2
*luigi deposits 0.2 and if he wins, he gets his deposit back + 0.1

So it will work if I deposit 0.1 and he deposits 0.2 ?
If yes, then I'll send the funds asap

[BetMoose]

I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!

the bet was
*I deposit 0.1 and if I win, I get my deposit back + 0.2
*luigi deposits 0.2 and if he wins, he gets his deposit back + 0.1

So it will work if I deposit 0.1 and he deposits 0.2 ?
If yes, then I'll send the funds asap

Yes - that is correct. Is a 1% fee agreeable?

[dnaleor]

I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!

the bet was
*I deposit 0.1 and if I win, I get my deposit back + 0.2
*luigi deposits 0.2 and if he wins, he gets his deposit back + 0.1

So it will work if I deposit 0.1 and he deposits 0.2 ?
If yes, then I'll send the funds asap

Yes - that is correct. Is a 1% fee agreeable?

I just deposited the 0.1 BTC
Can't yet see it on the betting page, but I guess it's waiting for confirmations.

edit: back on topic

I think we well see a breakout at the end of the month. We will jump to 800 USD in a matter of days, stay there for a while and after that jump to 1200, correction to 950-1000 region and after that... >5000 USD

[molecular]

I think we well see a breakout at the end of the month. We will jump to 8000 USD in a matter of days, stay there for a while and after that jump to 1200, correction to 950-1000 region and after that... >5000 USD

If that's based on TA I'd like to see it ;-)

Maybe you meant "800" instead of "8000"? That would make more sense.

I can agree we will pause at 800 for a while. Have been saying so (and been laughed at for doing so) during the runup to 680. It could be 800 is the new 180 (remember Adam constantly saying: "180 by end of next week"). If history repeats according to this, we'd pause at 800, but not for very long, just for a little breath-taking.

I think the jump to 800 is still a month or three off, though. Wouldn't mind being proven wrong, of course.

[dnaleor]

I think we well see a breakout at the end of the month. We will jump to 8000 USD in a matter of days, stay there for a while and after that jump to 1200, correction to 950-1000 region and after that... >5000 USD

If that's based on TA I'd like to see it ;-)

Maybe you meant "800" instead of "8000"? That would make more sense.

I can agree we will pause at 800 for a while. Have been saying so (and been laughed at for doing so) during the runup to 680. It could be 800 is the new 180 (remember Adam constantly saying: "180 by end of next week"). If history repeats according to this, we'd pause at 800, but not for very long, just for a little breath-taking.

I think the jump to 800 is still a month or three off, though. Wouldn't mind being proven wrong, of course.

yes 800, i'll edit
I think also that 800 will be a short pause

Bitcoin can move very fast. Now it really seems unlikely to be above 1000 USD by september, but I think it will happen.

[luigi1111]

I've created this contract for you. You can deposit anonymously if you wish. dnaleor has until tomorrow to deposit. Any unmatched amounts get refunded back 100%.

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-price-5000-before-2015-640

good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2

That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct!

the bet was
*I deposit 0.1 and if I win, I get my deposit back + 0.2
*luigi deposits 0.2 and if he wins, he gets his deposit back + 0.1

So it will work if I deposit 0.1 and he deposits 0.2 ?
If yes, then I'll send the funds asap

Yes - that is correct. Is a 1% fee agreeable?

I just deposited the 0.1 BTC
Can't yet see it on the betting page, but I guess it's waiting for confirmations.

edit: back on topic

I think we well see a breakout at the end of the month. We will jump to 800 USD in a matter of days, stay there for a while and after that jump to 1200, correction to 950-1000 region and after that... >5000 USD

Whew, the time limit was extended. I hadn't heard back from you, so I went home and totally forgot about even checking the forum, lol.

I've deposited 0.2 now. Best of luck!