rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[jmw74]

- Realize that there is nothing BTC does better than XMR (once certain infrastructure is built to the latter)

Is there infrastructure that's going to shrink the transaction sizes?  Because if not, that's something bitcoin does better.   

IIUC The number of transactions/sec that a full monero node can support is far less than bitcoin's.  This is important because if your own computer can't keep up, you have to trust someone else to do it for you.

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[sidhujag]

Anyone notice that the number of transactions per day broke to the upside today? If Peter R is correct with the correlation between transactions and price either the correlation is starting to break or price is lagging and we will see a shot for $500 soon.

Also the hash rate is looking very healthy.

Either way I wouldn't be shorting atm.

IMO we still haven't met litcoin target and although bitcoin is lagging now litecoin's recent strength, the next litecoin push down should drag bitcoin down heavily until we see strong buyers.

[fluffypony]

lol, I still don't get it.
Who or what prevents me from ring-signing your input and send your money to my address(output).

Please take the time to familiarise yourself with some basic cryptocurrency concepts:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transactions#Input
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transactions#Output

http://www.coindesk.com/information/how-do-bitcoin-transactions-work/

https://bitcoin.org/en/developer-guide

Edit: again, not to repeat myself, but as I already said in my previous post: "You can't change an input without mucking up the signature for the whole transaction."

[Odalv]

lol, I still don't get it.
Who or what prevents me from ring-signing your input and send your money to my address(output).

Please take the time to familiarise yourself with some basic cryptocurrency concepts:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transactions#Input
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transactions#Output

http://www.coindesk.com/information/how-do-bitcoin-transactions-work/

https://bitcoin.org/en/developer-guide

Edit: again, not to repeat myself, but as I already said in my previous post: "You can't change an input without mucking up the signature for the whole transaction."

I do not talk about bitcoin here. Bitcoin is signing transaction perfect. It does not use ring signatures.

Edit:
Alice, Bob and Carol do not want spend their Monero. But hacker Dave wants their money. A ring signature obscures identities because it only proves that a Dave belongs to a group. So Dave ring-signing Alice, Bob Carol and Dave inputs and send XMR to his new stealth addresses.

Edit2:
Monero is same as money on the pavement. So easy to just pick up them from the pavement. Easy money ... but worthless, who can use them?
(Am I wrong ? Why ?)

[RAJSALLIN]

Anyone notice that the number of transactions per day broke to the upside today? If Peter R is correct with the correlation between transactions and price either the correlation is starting to break or price is lagging and we will see a shot for $500 soon.

Also the hash rate is looking very healthy.

Either way I wouldn't be shorting atm.

IMO we still haven't met litcoin target and although bitcoin is lagging now litecoin's recent strength, the next litecoin push down should drag bitcoin down heavily until we see strong buyers.

I was speaking about the correlation of transaction volume and price, what on earth does this have to do with litecoin?

[Trolololo]

The only way for Bitcoin to lose now is by being overtaken by another cryptocurrency. So, the question now is, what do you think the odds are of Bitcoin failing (let's say going to a market cap <100 Million).

Well that is very unlikely to happen. Also I don't want to be losing 99% of my wealth so I would jump out first, much before.

This jumping out, if it for some reason gains traction, could make the air (market cap) go from one balloon to another really fast.

Nobody can be complacent.

Risto,

You pointed to the SSS strategy for raking a % in case BTC/USD climbed at a given price range, a strategy I fully agree to.

You also pointed to hedging BTC position with an equivalent position in XMR, wich I also agree.

I'm interested to know about your exit strategy in case Bitcoin values come below certain USD values. I mean, what percentage of BTC would you sell (for USD or XMR) at each price range?

Thanks.

[rpietila]

The only way for Bitcoin to lose now is by being overtaken by another cryptocurrency. So, the question now is, what do you think the odds are of Bitcoin failing (let's say going to a market cap <100 Million).

Well that is very unlikely to happen. Also I don't want to be losing 99% of my wealth so I would jump out first, much before.

This jumping out, if it for some reason gains traction, could make the air (market cap) go from one balloon to another really fast.

Nobody can be complacent.

Risto,

You pointed to the SSS strategy for raking a % in case BTC/USD climbed at a given price range, a strategy I fully agree to.

You also pointed to hedging BTC position with an equivalent position in XMR, wich I also agree.

I'm interested to know about your exit strategy in case Bitcoin values come below certain USD values. I mean, what percentage of BTC would you sell (for USD or XMR) at each price range?

Thanks.

Bitcoin has a long history of steep dips, yet it has always gone higher. I think it is prudent to never sell below ATH.

Same applies to Monero of course.

Don't invest in BTC/XMR any money that you cannot lose. And sell so much in the tops that you can take the dips to zero if need be, without getting tempted to sell at the bottom.

[Odalv]

The only way for Bitcoin to lose now is by being overtaken by another cryptocurrency. So, the question now is, what do you think the odds are of Bitcoin failing (let's say going to a market cap <100 Million).

Well that is very unlikely to happen. Also I don't want to be losing 99% of my wealth so I would jump out first, much before.

This jumping out, if it for some reason gains traction, could make the air (market cap) go from one balloon to another really fast.

Nobody can be complacent.

Risto,

You pointed to the SSS strategy for raking a % in case BTC/USD climbed at a given price range, a strategy I fully agree to.

You also pointed to hedging BTC position with an equivalent position in XMR, wich I also agree.

I'm interested to know about your exit strategy in case Bitcoin values come below certain USD values. I mean, what percentage of BTC would you sell (for USD or XMR) at each price range?

Thanks.

Bitcoin has a long history of steep dips, yet it has always gone higher. I think it is prudent to never sell below ATH.

Same applies to Monero of course.

Don't invest in BTC/XMR any money that you cannot lose. And sell so much in the tops that you can take the dips to zero if need be, without getting tempted to sell at the bottom.

What about bet, Monero has BIG security flaw and will be ZERO next week ?

[JayJuanGee]

However; the financial connection to bitcoin from it's current users is, in my opinion, the strongest lock in effect you can have in any new technology... Users who hold a certain amount of bitcoin as a long term investment are very much determined to stay and make the technology a success...

I have seen many bitcoin defectors in the phase of the last 6 weeks or so. The process goes as such:

- Realize that the final # of BTC (21M) is about the same as the final number of XMR (18M).
- Realize that by buying equal number of XMR, you are actually slightly ahead if it gains vs. BTC
- Realize that 1 XMR = 0.004 BTC
- Realize that hedge buying costs you essentially nothing except your pride of having never invested in an alt before
- Start to follow community
- Realize that many good guys are there
- Start to participate
- Realize that people there are on average actually cooler than just Bitcoin proponents
- Let that sink in
- Realize that it's possible to increase your financial position in the event that XMR succeeds vs. BTC, by buying more XMR
- Buy more XMR
- Realize that there is nothing BTC does better than XMR (once certain infrastructure is built to the latter)
- Realize things that should not be written in a Bitcoin forum
- Buy more XMR

The defection is completed when you start to feel that the world would be better without Bitcoin, with only XMR. Then you make the commitment to dump your BTC (that is still 50%-95% of your crypto) once the critical moment comes. When it does, XMR may go up 100x-1000x in a single year, and become so big that even BTC's value will be affected.

The defection payoff is currently about 250:1 (the difference in their price). You should understand that you may choose any level of defection, you can even defect with a 2.5:1 payoff by risking only 1% of your BTC, which is no defection at all, rather a hedge as discussed previously. This is starting to look like the similar kind of self-reinforcing mechanism that I posited for Bitcoin in early 2013, and prior to that, silver (which also rose 6x during the time of my all-in investment).

if another coin even gets close (same order of mag) to bitcoin in terms of market cap, it seriously erodes the "scarcity" feature/argument of bitcoin, which is one of the most critical arguments for putting any wealth/mindshare/time/effort into bitcoin (and by extension, any crypto). Guys like Schiff and Rickards would be proven right, and no one would be comfortable putting any wealth into any crypto for a long long time. Thus, everyone would lose. Humanity would not see the benefits that decentralized money can bring for many years/decades longer than if bitcoin simply becomes the obvious-to-everyone non-dethronable crypto store of value.

To be clear, I think there's niche value in some alts, and some of the experimentation is valuable. But you guys who think that many coins can live side by side with similar monetizations are missing the key point that if that happened, we'd all be sitting side-by-side at *trivial* market-caps, not big ones.

+1   to Melbustus......... Even though stated in the context of another thread, Melbustus makes very decent and well-articulated points.....

In this regard, there is NO real need to defect from BTC or to attempt to defect from BTC because any such defection may cause an undermining of BTC and potentially an undermining of all cryptos - in the sense of undermining confidence and in the sense of creating the impression that all cryptos are pumps and dumps and that we can just continue to wait for the next supposedly "better" crypto to come along..   

In that regard, we NEED the strengthening of bitcoin for some time to prevail.. and maybe in 50 or 100 years from now, we can transfer over to something else or consider transferring over to something else or... or maybe it would just be that Bitcoin could be forked.. 50 or 100 years from now... ? 

In 50 years many of us will be dead or on our last leg(s), and in 100 years, we will all be dead (except for some rare miracle of life prolongation - which still may cause anyone here still alive to be quite crippled by that time), but surely it is a good thing to have a plan that goes at least 50, 100 or more years into the future - even though today's investment decisions will likely be motivated by shorter time frames that will differ from investor to investor.. such as 1 eek or 6 months or 1 year or 3 years or 5 years or 15 years or 30 years... and probably, no matter which time frame motivates your investment considerations, you are going to need to engage in periodic and/or continuous reassessment(s) of the BTC situation in light of related factors.

[aminorex]

Here is the chart of adjusted number of bitcoin transactions. I chose a two-year duration, with seven day smoothing, and with a log scale. Note that the current value is now higher than all but a few days at the November 2013 peak. Should this trend in transaction volume continue, I expect that bitcoin prices will rise also.

Only if the trend outpaces the growth in supply.

[aminorex]

What about bet, Monero has BIG security flaw and will be ZERO next week ?

I will take that bet. 

[aminorex]

if another coin even gets close (same order of mag) to bitcoin in terms of market cap, it seriously erodes the "scarcity" feature/argument of bitcoin, which is one of the most critical arguments for putting any wealth/mindshare/time/effort into bitcoin (and by extension, any crypto). Guys like Schiff and Rickards would be proven right, and no one would be comfortable putting any wealth into any crypto for a long long time. Thus, everyone would lose. Humanity would not see the benefits that decentralized money can bring for many years/decades longer than if bitcoin simply becomes the obvious-to-everyone non-dethronable crypto store of value.

To be clear, I think there's niche value in some alts, and some of the experimentation is valuable. But you guys who think that many coins can live side by side with similar monetizations are missing the key point that if that happened, we'd all be sitting side-by-side at *trivial* market-caps, not big ones.

+1   to Melbustus......... Even though stated in the context of another thread, Melbustus makes very decent and well-articulated points.....

There is one fundamental error:  There are only two markets for liquidity:  Transparent, and private.  Any additional fractioning of the liquidity reduces value rather than enhancing it, because it damages network effects.
The Nash equilibrium is two pools.  The Pareto optimum is also two pools.  Which is bigger, we don't know yet.

there is NO real need to defect from BTC...
many of us will be dead

By defecting to XMR, I hope to improve my chances of avoiding being one of the dead.

[Odalv]

What about bet, Monero has BIG security flaw and will be ZERO next week ?

I will take that bet. 

What about:
 publish your monero address
 I'll publish bitcoin address

You will have to pay 1:10 (0.0004 BTC) of the current price 0.004 to published bitcoin address (in bitcoins) for every incoming transaction in monero otherwise you are liar. ?

[sidhujag]

Anyone notice that the number of transactions per day broke to the upside today? If Peter R is correct with the correlation between transactions and price either the correlation is starting to break or price is lagging and we will see a shot for $500 soon.

Also the hash rate is looking very healthy.

Either way I wouldn't be shorting atm.

IMO we still haven't met litcoin target and although bitcoin is lagging now litecoin's recent strength, the next litecoin push down should drag bitcoin down heavily until we see strong buyers.

I was speaking about the correlation of transaction volume and price, what on earth does this have to do with litecoin?

You're talking about correlation implying causation in the form of a price target, so am I. I don't think you got what I did there

[brg444]

What about bet, Monero has BIG security flaw and will be ZERO next week ?

I will take that bet. 

What about:
 publish your monero address
 I'll publish bitcoin address

You will have to pay 1:10 (0.0004 BTC) of the current price 0.004 to published bitcoin address (in bitcoins) for every incoming transaction in monero otherwise you are liar. ?

if every monero coin is so easily "hackable" why do you not do it.

why is it no one has successfully done what you are suggesting?








hint : maybe because you're wrong

[Odalv]

What about bet, Monero has BIG security flaw and will be ZERO next week ?

I will take that bet. 

What about:
 publish your monero address
 I'll publish bitcoin address

You will have to pay 1:10 (0.0004 BTC) of the current price 0.004 to published bitcoin address (in bitcoins) for every incoming transaction in monero otherwise you are liar. ?

if every monero coin is so easily "hackable" why do you not do it.

why is it no one has successfully done what you are suggesting?

hint : maybe because you're wrong

Excuse me but Stealing your shit brings me nothing. Maybe you would try to steal my shit.

[JayJuanGee]

if another coin even gets close (same order of mag) to bitcoin in terms of market cap, it seriously erodes the "scarcity" feature/argument of bitcoin, which is one of the most critical arguments for putting any wealth/mindshare/time/effort into bitcoin (and by extension, any crypto). Guys like Schiff and Rickards would be proven right, and no one would be comfortable putting any wealth into any crypto for a long long time. Thus, everyone would lose. Humanity would not see the benefits that decentralized money can bring for many years/decades longer than if bitcoin simply becomes the obvious-to-everyone non-dethronable crypto store of value.

To be clear, I think there's niche value in some alts, and some of the experimentation is valuable. But you guys who think that many coins can live side by side with similar monetizations are missing the key point that if that happened, we'd all be sitting side-by-side at *trivial* market-caps, not big ones.

+1   to Melbustus......... Even though stated in the context of another thread, Melbustus makes very decent and well-articulated points.....

There is one fundamental error:  There are only two markets for liquidity:  Transparent, and private.  Any additional fractioning of the liquidity reduces value rather than enhancing it, because it damages network effects.
The Nash equilibrium is two pools.  The Pareto optimum is also two pools.  Which is bigger, we don't know yet.

there is NO real need to defect from BTC...
many of us will be dead

By defecting to XMR, I hope to improve my chances of avoiding being one of the dead.

Even if you  have a lot of money, you cannot live forever if you do NOT preserve your healt, and you will really be lucky to live to have a functioning and meaningful life at the age of 100 years.

Even though people want to fantasize about science and medicine and progress and buying their health, energy and youthful vigor, this is just NOT very meaningful in absolute terms to get you past 100 years of functional and meaningful age... that is if you are very lucky in the genetics and the lifestyle and in the choosing the "correct and adequate" healthy life choices department.

[smooth]

Who or what prevents me from ring-signing your input and send your money to my address(output).

Math

[aminorex]

What about bet, Monero has BIG security flaw and will be ZERO next week ?

I will take that bet. 

What about:
 publish your monero address
 I'll publish bitcoin address

You will have to pay 1:10 (0.0004 BTC) of the current price 0.004 to published bitcoin address (in bitcoins) for every incoming transaction in monero otherwise you are liar. ?

I would never make an unlimited bet, under any circumstances, because there will always be some finite limit to my ability to pay, and the likelihood that I am hallucinating the whole thing is non-zero.

I would never take an adversarial bet which did not offer a punitive didactic utility to my counterparty - otherwise it would do you no good.

Were it not for one factor, I would accept the bet if it were limited to a token amount, say 1 btc, and if you would send no less than 277.78 XMR to that address.
If, as you imply, you can do this with less that 27.77 XMR, you should find the bet, while less exhorbitantly lucrative, perhaps adequately profitable to make proving your point enjoyable.
The one factor that prevents me from accepting those terms:  It is non-trivial to configure the bet so that you can't just fake a win by sending 10 BTC worth of XMR to me.
That would be happy for me in some ways, but such a deception, while unlikely, would pollute the public mind with disinformation.

However, I would happily post 1 BTC of collateral to a mutually agreed arbiter for the naive wager.
 

[aminorex]

there is NO real need to defect from BTC...
many of us will be dead

By defecting to XMR, I hope to improve my chances of avoiding being one of the dead.

...you cannot live forever...

I was thinking more in terms of 10 years, rather than 50.  I consider the extreme tail risks of holding a private coin to be much less than the extreme tail risks of holding a large amount on a public ledger.