rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Wexlike]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I think it will slow down to ~15% and later to 10% if the price doesn't change in the immediate future.

http://bitcoincharts.com/ 
Network total 284141.699 Thash/s  now. Your 2 month chart, starts at 120000 Thash/s

So ? The difficulty rises by ~15-20% per adjustment for now, i don't get your point ?
Who cares about the current maximum nethash, the only important thing is the difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks.

[1714491716]

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[1714491716]

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[1714491716]

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[Odalv]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I think it will slow down to ~15% and later to 10% if the price doesn't change in the immediate future.

http://bitcoincharts.com/ 
Network total 284141.699 Thash/s  now. Your 2 month chart, starts at 120000 Thash/s

So ? The difficulty rises by ~15-20% per adjustment for now, i don't get your point ?
Who cares about the current maximum nethash, the only important thing is the difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks.

At any difficulty your chance to find block is yourHashPower/curentTotalNethash. And it is well known, that hashrate doubles every 2 months.

[Wexlike]

To double the hashrate in 2 months you need a 19% increase per adjustment. This is no where near to your 40-50% assumption.
19% might be realistic, but i wanted to make my chart more conservative. If you don't like the results that i presented, you can calculate the chart with a 19% increase per adjustment. I don't think you really get how difficulty and mining works. But this is not the place to talk about this. If you have questions, you can write me a pm. Our conversation is totally out of topic.

[Pruden]

Puh, i made a chart, that shows the bitcoin creation price under best circumstances.

- Modern and efficient hardware (Antminer S3 - 440 GH/340W)
- very low electricity costs (0.05 cent/kwh)
- no other maintenance costs other than electricity
- I assume the miner is fully paid and the only costs are electricity
- difficulty correct till the current rise
- for the future i assumed a 10% difficulty rise per adjustment

Please don't criticize me too much, i made the chart with paint lol. The data is in the chart under the picture.



The data starts from the release of the miner.

Atleast i understand now, why the big mining operations are investing like crazy in new miners.  

Very nice! Just an idea, include cost of the miner. How much does it cost? I would take the amortization cost as exponentially decreasing (like a mortgage), such that its effect and the increasing difficulty cancel each other out and the profitable price remains constant until the equipment has paid itself.

[Wexlike]

Very nice! Just an idea, include cost of the miner. How much does it cost? I would take the amortization cost as exponentially decreasing (like a mortgage), such that its effect and the increasing difficulty cancel each other out and the profitable price remains constant until the equipment has paid itself.

The problem is, i made the calculation for an industrial mining operation. Something like the megafarm of KNC, not for the casual hobbyist. The other problem is, we don't know how expensive the miners are to produce. We don't know how much profit a company like KNC makes per miner if they sell it to a costumer. Maybe the production and assembly cost is only 300$? That would explain their insane profits.

[findftp]

Bitcoin is nearing 6 years old. The World Wide Web was launched to the public-at-large in 1993. By the 6-7th year, the dot.com bubble had a capitalization that was 183% of the USA GDP!!!

Bitcoin is 1000x smaller phenomenon and yet the WWW is 10x bigger by now, so relatively speaking Bitcoin is 10,000x smaller.

Governments get tax by WWW,  but will lose money by Bitcoin. That is why governments did not like bitcoin, but push WWW .
That is the difference.

Thanks to WWW I know that tax is forced payment of currency to produce demand of notes we call money so that they can practice all their hobbies and rob us from our stored energy.
I don't think governments are very happy anymore about WWW because we are able to find information ourself instead of them having the sole right of choosing the information to store in our heads.

In other words, WWW could have been invented by satoshi (or maybe it is?)

[rpietila]

This was good, especially the comments.

To the doofus who repeatedly writes one liners to this thread despite knowing that it is not allowed, since this is a self-moderated thread and I have told you to keep away: aren't you a grown up man, and a rich one at that? How do you think I will admit you to the castle if you behave like this?

[giveBTCpls]

What do you think about the measures taken by the ECB (specifically Mario Draghi) do you think we'll see things get better? Is this another step towards total devaluation of EUR? What will happen next?

[Odalv]

Very nice! Just an idea, include cost of the miner. How much does it cost? I would take the amortization cost as exponentially decreasing (like a mortgage), such that its effect and the increasing difficulty cancel each other out and the profitable price remains constant until the equipment has paid itself.

The problem is, i made the calculation for an industrial mining operation. Something like the megafarm of KNC, not for the casual hobbyist. The other problem is, we don't know how expensive the miners are to produce. We don't know how much profit a company like KNC makes per miner if they sell it to a costumer. Maybe the production and assembly cost is only 300$? That would explain their insane profits.

> i made the calculation for an industrial mining operation
lol, only electricity cost 15% or 19% more every cycle makes 4% difference per 14 days what is 277% per year (a huge difference if I'll sell bitcoin for $500 or $1500)
It is not same as hobbyist lose $200 USD  (if you invest $100M USD then make loss of $200M USD will be significant)

> assembly cost is only 300$
you need to build infrastructure ( factories, cooling )
thunderbolt can strike to you mining facility (you need insurance)
thief can attack your mining facility (you need security service)
... and more 24/7 services are required to get your business running

[creekbore]

You will be missed.  Thank you for summarizing the information you have here.  More people follow you than you know - I have no doubt you'll be back some day even if with a different handle.

Godspeed.

Seconded.  I have learnt a great deal from AM's posts, erudition and (most importantly) his courage in challenging the accepted orthodoxy of this thread and the forum in general.

It is a poor reflection on the BTC 'community' that a contrary view (and ironically one that is based upon statistical and theoretical learning) garners such unfounded animosity.

God bless and thank you.

[Bitcopia]

You will be missed.  Thank you for summarizing the information you have here.  More people follow you than you know - I have no doubt you'll be back some day even if with a different handle.

Godspeed.

Seconded.  I have learnt a great deal from AM's posts, erudition and (most importantly) his courage in challenging the accepted orthodoxy of this thread and the forum in general.

It is a poor reflection on the BTC 'community' that a contrary view (and ironically one that is based upon statistical and theoretical learning) garners such unfounded animosity.

God bless and thank you.

Anonymint has grown on me over the months. I respect his views even if I don't always agree with them. Definitely one of the most thoughtful members on this forum.

[av123]

You will be missed.  Thank you for summarizing the information you have here.  More people follow you than you know - I have no doubt you'll be back some day even if with a different handle.

Godspeed.

Seconded.  I have learnt a great deal from AM's posts, erudition and (most importantly) his courage in challenging the accepted orthodoxy of this thread and the forum in general.

It is a poor reflection on the BTC 'community' that a contrary view (and ironically one that is based upon statistical and theoretical learning) garners such unfounded animosity.

God bless and thank you.

Anonymint has grown on me over the months. I respect his views even if I don't always agree with them. Definitely one of the most thoughtful members on this forum.

I agree with that sentiment. His posts are usually quite thought provoking. He has stated in the past that he will be leaving only to return some time later so perhaps we will see him posting again before long.

[coraz]

Bitcoin is nearing 6 years old. The World Wide Web was launched to the public-at-large in 1993. By the 6-7th year, the dot.com bubble had a capitalization that was 183% of the USA GDP!!!

In every practical sense, Bitcoin launched to the "public-at-large" in November 2013.

Comparing WWW of 1993 (14 million users, project has been existing for decades) to Bitcoin of 2009 (10-20 users at most) is either extremely stupid or intentionally misleading.

I thank you for deciding to leave the forum and not subject people to reading your cringeworthy posts any more.

[wachtwoord]

Bitcoin is nearing 6 years old. The World Wide Web was launched to the public-at-large in 1993. By the 6-7th year, the dot.com bubble had a capitalization that was 183% of the USA GDP!!!

In every practical sense, Bitcoin launched to the "public-at-large" in November 2013.

Comparing WWW of 1993 (14 million users, project has been existing for decades) to Bitcoin of 2009 (10-20 users at most) is either extremely stupid or intentionally misleading.

Very very true. In 2009 Bitcoin had less than 10 users as far as I'm aware. if we are going to compare the internet and Bitcoin then choose 1969 as the start of the internet (Arpanet).

It will probably be meaningless to compare the rise of Bitcoin and the internet on a year to year basis (the adoption trend will probably have similarities though)

[creekbore]

Bitcoin is nearing 6 years old. The World Wide Web was launched to the public-at-large in 1993. By the 6-7th year, the dot.com bubble had a capitalization that was 183% of the USA GDP!!!

In every practical sense, Bitcoin launched to the "public-at-large" in November 2013.

Comparing WWW of 1993 (14 million users, project has been existing for decades) to Bitcoin of 2009 (10-20 users at most) is either extremely stupid or intentionally misleading.

I thank you for deciding to leave the forum and not subject people to reading your cringeworthy posts any more.

Yeah...the bubbles of 2010 and early 2013 didn't happen, the media wasn't full of BTC stories between Jan and April 2013.

But I look forward to reading your posts, since you are clearly an intellectual giant with many years economic training and worldly wisdom to draw upon.

[rpietila]

Why this needs to be discussed? According to numbers, cryptocurrency has about a million or absolute maximum 5 million people who have ever had any.

In 1995, Internet was a staple in half of the computers sold in retail, 1997 in all of them. The 1-5 million in the world number must have happened in 1994 or earlier.

So 1993/4 = 2014

[JayJuanGee]

Why this needs to be discussed? According to numbers, cryptocurrency has about a million or absolute maximum 5 million people who have ever had any.

In 1995, Internet was a staple in half of the computers sold in retail, 1997 in all of them. The 1-5 million in the world number must have happened in 1994 or earlier.

So 1993/4 = 2014

That is the million dollar set of questions to estimate how many users there are and the extent to which existing users are expanding.. which many of us surmise will exponentially affect BTC prices, whether new adopters are hoarding or NOT. 

Surely, BTC prices will be even more exponentially affected if users are both hoarding and using bitcoins to carry out various transactions (through the transact and replace type practices).

I believe that the recent (March 2014) US IRS tax interpretation memo does create a fairly strong disincentive for people to carry out regular BTC transactions - which is a bit of a shame, and hopefully will be modified in the future or scofflaw mechanisms will evolve.

[rpietila]

Why this needs to be discussed? According to numbers, cryptocurrency has about a million or absolute maximum 5 million people who have ever had any.

In 1995, Internet was a staple in half of the computers sold in retail, 1997 in all of them. The 1-5 million in the world number must have happened in 1994 or earlier.

So 1993/4 = 2014

That is the million dollar set of questions to estimate how many users there are and the extent to which existing users are expanding.. which many of us surmise will exponentially affect BTC prices, whether new adopters are hoarding or NOT. 

Surely, BTC prices will be even more exponentially affected if users are both hoarding and using bitcoins to carry out various transactions (through the transact and replace type practices).

I believe that the recent (March 2014) US IRS tax interpretation memo does create a fairly strong disincentive for people to carry out regular BTC transactions - which is a bit of a shame, and hopefully will be modified in the future or scofflaw mechanisms will evolve.

Well it's like a one big country deciding in 1994 that Internet may only be text-based. Other countries don't likely follow, and anyone who personally follows the guidance is just shooting himself in the foot by putting himself in such a crippled position. If there was an anonymous way of accessing the graphic Internet, I am sure its popularity would skyrocket.

[solex]

Well it's like a one big country deciding in 1994 that Internet may only be text-based.

Reminds me of France's Minitel

[painlord2k]

Today we did another higher low. It punctured the lower trend channel just for less than 4 hours.
There is this compression triangle going on and on.
Not enough pressure to push thru the ceiling, not enough pressure to push thru the floor.