il_minatore
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September 04, 2018, 03:28:03 PM |
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Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.
Hi, how did you plot the last chart? thanks
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windjc
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September 05, 2018, 01:30:51 AM |
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Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.
Thanks! BETI very close to historical support at -1. Maybe close to good bounce area.
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DieJohnny
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September 05, 2018, 02:30:26 AM |
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Feels like this past Dec pump to $20k was like the early pump in 2013 to $220.... which had a correction to 60s and then up to 1200. A parallel would be the Dec 20k corrects to 5000s and then up to 80-100k... is this then the Beti bottom? #BETIBOTTOM
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Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
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Iris_Colt
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September 05, 2018, 06:25:00 AM |
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BETI very close to historical support at -1.
Maybe close to good bounce area.
In my humble opinion, BETI heads toward -2.0 (hopefully not).
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Iris_Colt
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September 05, 2018, 07:00:38 AM |
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Hi, how did you plot the last chart? thanks
Following user jl2012's instructions from their first post, etc. tl;dr: Mt. Gox, CSV data available from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed). Bitstamp, CSV data available from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today, implicitly removing from 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp was closed). VWAP: daily Volume Weighted Average Price (from bitcoincharts.com), i.e. when computing the average for a given day, the price is being multiplied by the volume of bitcoin traded at that price. Regression model (computed in C with gsl_fit_linear(): y = ax + b, where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, i.e. 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept Today's exponential tread expected price: the expected price of today based on the regression model, i.e. = ax + b BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index. BETI = ln (daily VWAP / exponential tread expected price) [For example, on Sep 2 2018, the VWAP was $7244.62 and the expected price was $15,306.94. BETI = ln ($7244.62/$15,306.94) = -0.748048]
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Iris_Colt
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September 06, 2018, 07:29:41 AM |
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Just a quick update...
Date 9/5/18 VWAP $7055.87 x 2972 y 8.861616 a (slope) historical +0.0032683894 b (intercept) historical -0.0708358360 Rsq historical 0.866482 BETI historical -0.781202 (kek!) Expected Price historical $15,410.70 Actual price / expected price historical 45.79%
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il_minatore
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September 06, 2018, 09:45:17 AM |
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Hi, how did you plot the last chart? thanks
Following user jl2012's instructions from their first post, etc. tl;dr: Mt. Gox, CSV data available from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed). Bitstamp, CSV data available from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today, implicitly removing from 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp was closed). VWAP: daily Volume Weighted Average Price (from bitcoincharts.com), i.e. when computing the average for a given day, the price is being multiplied by the volume of bitcoin traded at that price. Regression model (computed in C with gsl_fit_linear(): y = ax + b, where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, i.e. 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept Today's exponential tread expected price: the expected price of today based on the regression model, i.e. = ax + b BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index. BETI = ln (daily VWAP / exponential tread expected price) [For example, on Sep 2 2018, the VWAP was $7244.62 and the expected price was $15,306.94. BETI = ln ($7244.62/$15,306.94) = -0.748048] for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange
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Iris_Colt
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September 06, 2018, 01:35:01 PM |
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for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange
Okay. The following stats are obtained as follows: - Mt. Gox: from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
- coinbase + bitstamp + btce + kraken + bitfinex + cex + lake + localbtc + wex + btcalpha + itbit + hitbtc: from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today
Date 9/6/18 (yeah, I am starting to have data available from today)VWAP $6417.29 x 2973 y 8.766752 a (slope) historical +0.0032734323 b (intercept) historical -0.0742908548 Rsq historical 0.866719 BETI historical -0.890872 Expected Price historical $15,640.56 Actual price / expected price historical 41.03% Not that it matters, kek.
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Kaydking
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September 06, 2018, 01:44:17 PM |
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hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?
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Iris_Colt
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September 06, 2018, 02:04:04 PM |
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hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?
Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.
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Iris_Colt
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September 06, 2018, 02:16:09 PM |
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for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange
By the way, il_minatore, feel free to make a list of your preferred exchanges, and I will produce the relevant BETI statistics.
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mmortal03
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September 07, 2018, 01:56:50 AM |
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hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?
Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market. lol, make sure to buy the dip really hard, that way it doesn't last that long.
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Mallyx
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September 07, 2018, 06:29:08 AM |
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hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?
As we are on BETI -0.89, we can still expect to going down to -2. It's only an indicator that tell us how low or high it can go.
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Iris_Colt
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September 07, 2018, 09:07:40 AM |
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Just a not-so-quick update. The stats are obtained as follows: - All the historical BTC/USD data available at bitcoincharts,com is used.
- So a total of 175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today are used.
- The exchanges included are: 1coin, abucoins, allcoin, anxhk, b2c, b7, bcLR, bcmBM, bcmLR, bcmMB, bcmPP, bitalo, bitbay, bitbox, bitcurex, bitfinex, bitfloor, bitflyer, bitkonan, bitmarket, bitme, bitstamp, btc24, btcalpha, btcc, btce, btcex, btctree, cbx, cex, coinbase, coinsbank, cotr, cryptox, crytr, exchb, exmo, fbtc, getbtc, global, hitbtc, ibwt, icbit, imcex, indacoin, intrsng, itbit, just, kraken, lake, localbtc, lybit, mtgox, okcoin, ripple, rock, ruxum, thLR, th, vcx, weex, wex
Date 9/6/18 VWAP $6422.69 x 2973 y 8.767592 a (slope) historical +0.00327084849169102 b (intercept) historical -0.069262946826707 Rsq historical 0.864354018483482 BETI historical -0.887377824698852Expected Price historical $15,599.11 Actual price / expected price historical 41.1733977153379% -2.00 $2,111.11 -1.50 $3,480.63 -1.00 $5,738.59 -0.50 $9,461.34 -0.25 $12,148.60 +0.00 $15,599.11 +0.25 $20,029.66 +0.50 $25,718.60 +1.00 $42402.80 You know... It cannot be more comprehensive than this... and the result is very similar to the one using just Mt Gox and Bitstamp.
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exstasie
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September 07, 2018, 09:31:39 AM |
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BETI very close to historical support at -1.
Maybe close to good bounce area.
I was going to ask Iris_Colt why they thought BETI was bound for -2.0. Then I saw the chart. Unfortunately, it sure looks like historical support lies closer to the -2.0 area. Anyone know what kind of range to expect for -2.0, 3 months or 6 months from now? (assuming we stay sideways) Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.
Why 7 years?
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Iris_Colt
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September 07, 2018, 11:03:55 AM |
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Just a quick clarification... in order to prevent PMs.
In my previous post, even when I mentioned that "175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 were used" this was not totally correct (my fault). I really started at user jl2012's original date of Saturday, 17 July 2010. This was for comparison purposes.
But if absolutely all the data is used... then the BETI stats are as follows:
Date 9/6/18 VWAP $6422.69 x 3056 (note this) y 8.767592 a (slope) historical +0.0034328567 b (intercept) historical -0.6732619229 Rsq historical 0.849800825183905 BETI historical -1.0499563126 Expected Price historical $18353.00 Actual price / expected price historical 34.99530373%
-2.00 $2,483.81 -1.50 $4,095.11 -1.00 $6,751.69 -0.50 $11,131.65 -0.25 $14293.33 +0.00 $18,353.00 +0.25 $23,565.71 +0.50 $30,258.97 +1.00 $49,888.61
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Iris_Colt
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September 07, 2018, 11:14:27 AM |
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And this will be the historical BETI chart using absolutely all the BTC/USD entries in bitcoincharts.com since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today: https://i.imgur.com/dc5h98r.png
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mmortal03
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September 07, 2018, 10:13:46 PM |
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And this will be the historical BETI chart using absolutely all the BTC/USD entries in bitcoincharts.com since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today: Excellent. Thank you for this.
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Iris_Colt
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September 10, 2018, 06:40:54 AM Merited by Wekkel (1), sgbett (1) |
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Note: the previous BETI chart was an "historical" plot computed with its regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on the information that was available until that day (so also all days preceding it). Please compare it with the following chart, which re-computes all past BETIs based on the knowledge we have today, and using only the current data regression parameters. Past BETI values change, obviously, but the plot offers more “big picture rambling” for those of you noticing the current resistance level, with a look at where we are today... https://i.imgur.com/ZArJRDS.png
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neilol-real-again
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October 05, 2018, 08:35:47 PM |
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Would love to see an update Is there a wolfram alpha equation set up for this yet?
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