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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 107197 times)
Iris_Colt
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August 27, 2018, 11:06:43 AM
 #781

Quick update...

Date   8/19/18
VWAP   $6699.18
x   2963
y   8.809740
a (slope) historical   +0.0032730580
b (intercept) historical   -0.0754331731
Rsq historical   0.865930
BETI historical   -0.8128979
Expected Price historical   $15,102.83
Actual price / expected price historical   44.357%
  
-2.00    $2,043.95
-1.50    $3,369.90
-1.00    $5,556.02
-0.50    $9,160.33
-0.25   $11,762.10
+0.00  $15,102.83
+0.25  $19,392.42
+0.50  $24,900.36
+1.00  $41,053.76

Interestingly, Bitstamp's ATH on Sunday, 17 December 2017 12:25:03 ($19666.00) is currently BETI +0.264009.
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mmortal03
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August 28, 2018, 12:14:07 AM
 #782

I do not believe we will see 1 million dollar bitcoin before 10 years, maybe 15-20. McAfee will have to eat his dick.

Bitcoin's current price index ($6702.01) is -57.96% below McAfee's bet's price target.

The price needs to increase to $15943.71 to be on target for $1M/Bitcoin by the three year deadline ending in 857 days, kek.

lol, McAfee needs to start reading the BETI thread.
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August 28, 2018, 07:16:17 AM
 #783

I do not believe we will see 1 million dollar bitcoin before 10 years, maybe 15-20. McAfee will have to eat his dick.

Bitcoin's current price index ($6702.01) is -57.96% below McAfee's bet's price target.

The price needs to increase to $15943.71 to be on target for $1M/Bitcoin by the three year deadline ending in 857 days, kek.

lol, McAfee needs to start reading the BETI thread.

Can we add the Dickline to BETI ?  Grin

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August 31, 2018, 08:27:23 AM
 #784

 
Can we add the Dickline to BETI ?  Grin
The dickline itself is mostly a curiosity, but that webpage you linked to has good, simple explanations of bitcoin and how it works.  The webpage has the kinds of explanations that one might actually be able to use in discussions with people who don't appreciate the reality of crypto.  I'm remembering in particular a cafe owner whom I met in Uruguay a few years ago.  He was convinced that bitcoin is a criminal fraud.  You have to use the simplest descriptive language possible with some people.  The dickline webpage has good examples of simple explanations that almost anybody could understand, if their minds are even the littlest bit open.
Having said all that, I don't think the length of John McAfee's dick has very much to do with Bitcoin exponential price analysis. Cool
Iris_Colt
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September 03, 2018, 08:10:29 AM
 #785

Just a quick update...

Date   9/2/18
VWAP   $7244.62
x   2969
y   8.888014
a (slope) historical   +0.0032699269
b (intercept) historical   -0.0723514146
Rsq historical   0.866297
BETI historical   -0.748048
Expected Price historical   $15,306.94
Actual price / expected price historical   47.33%
  
-2.00   $2,071.57
-1.50   $3,415.44
-1.00   $5,631.11
-0.50   $9,284.13
-0.25  $11,921.06
+0.00  $15,306.94
+0.25  $19,654.50
+0.50  $25,236.88
+1.00  $41,608.57
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September 04, 2018, 02:11:46 AM
 #786

Just a quick update...

Date   9/2/18
VWAP   $7244.62
x   2969
y   8.888014
a (slope) historical   +0.0032699269
b (intercept) historical   -0.0723514146
Rsq historical   0.866297
BETI historical   -0.748048
Expected Price historical   $15,306.94
Actual price / expected price historical   47.33%
  
-2.00   $2,071.57
-1.50   $3,415.44
-1.00   $5,631.11
-0.50   $9,284.13
-0.25  $11,921.06
+0.00  $15,306.94
+0.25  $19,654.50
+0.50  $25,236.88
+1.00  $41,608.57

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.
Mallyx
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September 04, 2018, 06:47:12 AM
 #787



I think it's the more recent we have.

Iris_Colt
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September 04, 2018, 08:15:21 AM
 #788

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.
https://i.imgur.com/Kd5wJPs.png
il_minatore
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September 04, 2018, 03:28:03 PM
 #789

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.


Hi,
how did you plot the last chart? thanks
windjc
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September 05, 2018, 01:30:51 AM
 #790

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.


Thanks!

BETI very close to historical support at -1.

Maybe close to good bounce area.
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September 05, 2018, 02:30:26 AM
 #791

Feels like this past Dec pump to $20k was like the early pump in 2013 to $220.... which had a correction to 60s and then up to 1200. A parallel would be the Dec 20k corrects to 5000s and then up to 80-100k... is this then the Beti bottom? #BETIBOTTOM

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Iris_Colt
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September 05, 2018, 06:25:00 AM
 #792


BETI very close to historical support at -1.

Maybe close to good bounce area.

In my humble opinion, BETI heads toward -2.0 (hopefully not).
Iris_Colt
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September 05, 2018, 07:00:38 AM
 #793

Hi,
how did you plot the last chart? thanks

Following user jl2012's instructions from their first post, etc.

tl;dr:
Mt. Gox, CSV data available from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
Bitstamp, CSV data available from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today, implicitly removing from 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp was closed).
VWAP: daily Volume Weighted Average Price (from bitcoincharts.com), i.e. when computing the average for a given day, the price is being multiplied by the volume of bitcoin traded at that price.
Regression model (computed in C with gsl_fit_linear(): y = ax + b,  where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, i.e. 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept
Today's exponential tread expected price: the expected price of today based on the regression model, i.e. = ax + b
BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index. BETI = ln (daily VWAP / exponential tread expected price) [For example, on Sep 2 2018, the VWAP was $7244.62 and the expected price was $15,306.94. BETI = ln ($7244.62/$15,306.94) = -0.748048]
Iris_Colt
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September 06, 2018, 07:29:41 AM
 #794

Just a quick update...

Date   9/5/18
VWAP   $7055.87
x   2972
y   8.861616
a (slope) historical   +0.0032683894
b (intercept) historical   -0.0708358360
Rsq historical   0.866482
BETI historical   -0.781202 (kek!)
Expected Price historical   $15,410.70
Actual price / expected price historical   45.79%
il_minatore
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September 06, 2018, 09:45:17 AM
 #795

Hi,
how did you plot the last chart? thanks

Following user jl2012's instructions from their first post, etc.

tl;dr:
Mt. Gox, CSV data available from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
Bitstamp, CSV data available from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today, implicitly removing from 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp was closed).
VWAP: daily Volume Weighted Average Price (from bitcoincharts.com), i.e. when computing the average for a given day, the price is being multiplied by the volume of bitcoin traded at that price.
Regression model (computed in C with gsl_fit_linear(): y = ax + b,  where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, i.e. 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept
Today's exponential tread expected price: the expected price of today based on the regression model, i.e. = ax + b
BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index. BETI = ln (daily VWAP / exponential tread expected price) [For example, on Sep 2 2018, the VWAP was $7244.62 and the expected price was $15,306.94. BETI = ln ($7244.62/$15,306.94) = -0.748048]

for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange
Iris_Colt
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September 06, 2018, 01:35:01 PM
 #796

for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange

Okay. The following stats are obtained as follows:
  • Mt. Gox: from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
  • coinbase + bitstamp + btce + kraken + bitfinex + cex + lake + localbtc + wex + btcalpha + itbit + hitbtc: from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today

Date   9/6/18 (yeah, I am starting to have data available from today)
VWAP   $6417.29
x   2973
y   8.766752
a (slope) historical   +0.0032734323
b (intercept) historical   -0.0742908548
Rsq historical   0.866719
BETI historical   -0.890872
Expected Price historical   $15,640.56
Actual price / expected price historical   41.03%

Not that it matters, kek.
Kaydking
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September 06, 2018, 01:44:17 PM
 #797

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?
Iris_Colt
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September 06, 2018, 02:04:04 PM
Merited by Majormax (1)
 #798

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?
Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.
Iris_Colt
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September 06, 2018, 02:16:09 PM
 #799

for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange
By the way, il_minatore, feel free to make a list of your preferred exchanges, and I will produce the relevant BETI statistics.
mmortal03
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September 07, 2018, 01:56:50 AM
 #800

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?
Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.

lol, make sure to buy the dip really hard, that way it doesn't last that long.
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