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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 107281 times)
Mallyx
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September 07, 2018, 06:29:08 AM
 #801

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?

As we are on BETI -0.89, we can still expect to going down to -2.
It's only an indicator that tell us how low or high it can go.

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Iris_Colt
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September 07, 2018, 09:07:40 AM
 #802

Just a not-so-quick update.

The stats are obtained as follows:
  • All the historical BTC/USD data available at bitcoincharts,com is used.
  • So a total of 175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today are used.
  • The exchanges included are: 1coin, abucoins, allcoin, anxhk, b2c, b7, bcLR, bcmBM, bcmLR, bcmMB, bcmPP, bitalo, bitbay, bitbox, bitcurex, bitfinex, bitfloor, bitflyer, bitkonan, bitmarket, bitme, bitstamp, btc24, btcalpha, btcc, btce, btcex, btctree, cbx, cex, coinbase, coinsbank, cotr, cryptox, crytr, exchb, exmo, fbtc, getbtc, global, hitbtc, ibwt, icbit, imcex, indacoin, intrsng, itbit, just, kraken, lake, localbtc, lybit, mtgox, okcoin, ripple, rock, ruxum, thLR, th, vcx, weex, wex

Date   9/6/18
VWAP   $6422.69
x   2973
y   8.767592
a (slope) historical   +0.00327084849169102
b (intercept) historical   -0.069262946826707
Rsq historical   0.864354018483482
BETI historical   -0.887377824698852
Expected Price historical   $15,599.11
Actual price / expected price historical   41.1733977153379%

-2.00   $2,111.11
-1.50   $3,480.63
-1.00   $5,738.59
-0.50   $9,461.34
-0.25  $12,148.60
+0.00  $15,599.11
+0.25  $20,029.66
+0.50  $25,718.60
+1.00  $42402.80

You know... It cannot be more comprehensive than this... and the result is very similar to the one using just Mt Gox and Bitstamp.
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September 07, 2018, 09:31:39 AM
 #803

BETI very close to historical support at -1.

Maybe close to good bounce area.

I was going to ask Iris_Colt why they thought BETI was bound for -2.0. Then I saw the chart. Unfortunately, it sure looks like historical support lies closer to the -2.0 area.

Anyone know what kind of range to expect for -2.0, 3 months or 6 months from now? (assuming we stay sideways)

Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.

Why 7 years? Shocked

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September 07, 2018, 11:03:55 AM
 #804

Just a quick clarification... in order to prevent PMs.

In my previous post, even when I mentioned that "175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 were used" this was not totally correct (my fault). I really started at user jl2012's original date of Saturday, 17 July 2010. This was for comparison purposes.

But if absolutely all the data is used... then the BETI stats are as follows:

Date   9/6/18
VWAP   $6422.69
x   3056 (note this)
y   8.767592
a (slope) historical   +0.0034328567
b (intercept) historical   -0.6732619229
Rsq historical   0.849800825183905
BETI historical   -1.0499563126
Expected Price historical   $18353.00
Actual price / expected price historical   34.99530373%

-2.00   $2,483.81
-1.50   $4,095.11
-1.00   $6,751.69
-0.50   $11,131.65
-0.25  $14293.33
+0.00  $18,353.00
+0.25  $23,565.71
+0.50  $30,258.97
+1.00  $49,888.61
Iris_Colt
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September 07, 2018, 11:14:27 AM
Merited by Mallyx (1)
 #805

And this will be the historical BETI chart using absolutely all the BTC/USD entries in bitcoincharts.com since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today:

https://i.imgur.com/dc5h98r.png
mmortal03
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September 07, 2018, 10:13:46 PM
 #806

And this will be the historical BETI chart using absolutely all the BTC/USD entries in bitcoincharts.com since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today:



Excellent. Thank you for this.
Iris_Colt
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September 10, 2018, 06:40:54 AM
Merited by Wekkel (1), sgbett (1)
 #807

Note: the previous BETI chart was an "historical" plot computed with its regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on the information that was available until that day (so also all days preceding it).

Please compare it with the following chart, which re-computes all past BETIs based on the knowledge we have today, and using only the current data regression parameters. Past BETI values change, obviously, but the plot offers more “big picture rambling” for those of you noticing the current resistance level, with a look at where we are today...

https://i.imgur.com/ZArJRDS.png

neilol-real-again
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October 05, 2018, 08:35:47 PM
 #808

Would love to see an update Smiley

Is there a wolfram alpha equation set up for this yet?
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October 06, 2018, 01:25:06 AM
 #809

Would love to see an update Smiley

Is there a wolfram alpha equation set up for this yet?

I think the links in the following post show the index and the expected price: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg27581815#msg27581815
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November 06, 2018, 09:41:37 AM
 #810

And this will be the historical BETI chart using absolutely all the BTC/USD entries in bitcoincharts.com since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today:



Excellent. Thank you for this.

Next bull run will either break the last beti peak or I think beti is not the long term trend line....

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November 20, 2018, 01:19:55 PM
 #811

Where would the -2.0 be right now?
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November 20, 2018, 05:19:35 PM
 #812

Where would the -2.0 be right now?

Around $3000, I think.
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November 21, 2018, 12:32:03 AM
 #813

Note: the previous BETI chart was an "historical" plot computed with its regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on the information that was available until that day (so also all days preceding it).

Please compare it with the following chart, which re-computes all past BETIs based on the knowledge we have today, and using only the current data regression parameters. Past BETI values change, obviously, but the plot offers more “big picture rambling” for those of you noticing the current resistance level, with a look at where we are today...





Delighted to see this thread going strong. One of my favourites. Keep up the good work!

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ngoccuong11789
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November 23, 2018, 06:38:21 AM
 #814

Just a quick clarification... in order to prevent PMs.

In my previous post, even when I mentioned that "175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 were used" this was not totally correct (my fault). I really started at user jl2012's original date of Saturday, 17 July 2010. This was for comparison purposes.

But if absolutely all the data is used... then the BETI stats are as follows:

Date   9/6/18
VWAP   $6422.69
x   3056 (note this)
y   8.767592
a (slope) historical   +0.0034328567
b (intercept) historical   -0.6732619229
Rsq historical   0.849800825183905
BETI historical   -1.0499563126
Expected Price historical   $18353.00
Actual price / expected price historical   34.99530373%

-2.00   $2,483.81
-1.50   $4,095.11
-1.00   $6,751.69
-0.50   $11,131.65
-0.25  $14293.33
+0.00  $18,353.00
+0.25  $23,565.71
+0.50  $30,258.97
+1.00  $49,888.61

What expect price in this situation? How can we draw this?
birr
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November 24, 2018, 12:28:59 AM
 #815

What expect price in this situation? How can we draw this?

gấu thị trường
kiên nhẫn
ngoccuong11789
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November 24, 2018, 02:17:11 PM
 #816

What expect price in this situation? How can we draw this?

gấu thị trường
kiên nhẫn

OKey, I see.....
somac.
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November 26, 2018, 09:41:43 AM
 #817

would be nice if anyone can give an update on the index
marcus_of_augustus
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November 26, 2018, 07:46:53 PM
 #818

would be nice if anyone can give an update on the index

here's an update, the index got rekt

tmfp
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November 26, 2018, 07:50:44 PM
 #819

would be nice if anyone can give an update on the index

here's an update, the index got rekt

exponentially

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Dogboy714
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November 27, 2018, 06:23:23 PM
 #820

would be nice if anyone can give an update on the index

Currently -1.817 - I'd be surprised if we didn't go below -2 before starting a quiet bull run.
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