[POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes

[Betwrong]

~ That's what I thought. It's all about a perfectly written prompt, right? My failed experiments with AI predicting outcomes don't prove anything. This was only a first try and I didn't think of a good prompt that much, I just wrote the first thing that came to mind. Yes, AI was wrong 8 times out of 10, but the same AI helped me to win 22x of my bet



I think I will be experimenting more with it. Maybe AI plus with some human corrections is the answer.

what makes you think this wasn't just luck but something taht is replicable and you can implement in a profitable way over time?

congratulations on the win and I'd be really happy to lose 8 out of 10 if my 2 wins got me a huge multiplier like that, but remember this could have been just luck, like a complex looking RNG asnwer created by an advanced LLM, but still no different than throwing dice.

Good question. Now, after more tries, I'm inclined to believe it was just luck. My subsequent experiments with Bard AI have shown that it's not much of a use for predicting the outcomes of the sports events. For example, Bard refuses to take into account which players are injured, although I said where to look for the info, https://www.premierinjuries.com/injury-table.php. And it predicts 2-1 in favour of the strongest team almost always, and that is not good enough, obviously.

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[Lucasgabd]

nice betwrong
I thought so

you can probably still use LLMs/AIs powered with something like Wolfram and data models to check past statistics and create a working model that is profitable over the long run
I have no idea on how to do it but I could see this happening.

[OgNasty]

Well, unfortunately I haven’t been able to get AI to flat out predict the winner of sporting events yet. Sure, there’s ways around it with nonsense, but I’d really like to get the AI’s genuine opinion of who the winner of a sporting event will be. I guess this is still a no-no in the world of AI, but I’m certain it’s only a matter of time.

[Betwrong]

nice betwrong
I thought so

you can probably still use LLMs/AIs powered with something like Wolfram and data models to check past statistics and create a working model that is profitable over the long run
I have no idea on how to do it but I could see this happening.

Interesting. I have no idea about that too. Maybe someone here can explain it to us? Or maybe run some experiments and show us the results. I personally think that it's not about AI's inability to pick the right data. It's about AI's refusal to do so, for some reason. But maybe I'm wrong here. Maybe it's possible create a working model. Interesting.

[Assface16678]

Well, unfortunately I haven’t been able to get AI to flat out predict the winner of sporting events yet. Sure, there’s ways around it with nonsense, but I’d really like to get the AI’s genuine opinion of who the winner of a sporting event will be. I guess this is still a no-no in the world of AI, but I’m certain it’s only a matter of time.

I guess it will never happen. The word "sport betting" refers to a game or gambling wherein real people are involved; they play sports like basketball and such. How do you think AI will predict who will be the winner? AI doesn't have the ability to predict the course of the game as it involves humans, which AI can't control, so it's nonsense that some will rely on it. Maybe AI could predict the winner. That's because there are only two winners in two teams; it is 50-50! I don't understand why some rely on AI; they don't think what the only capabilities of an AI are. Unless AI can control or manipulate the course of the game, that's when AI would be realiable in terms of sports betting. I'm not against AI; don't get me wrong, but I don't think AI has the capability to outsmart or predict anything that humans do.

[nullama]

~snip~
Interesting. I have no idea about that too. Maybe someone here can explain it to us? Or maybe run some experiments and show us the results. I personally think that it's not about AI's inability to pick the right data. It's about AI's refusal to do so, for some reason. But maybe I'm wrong here. Maybe it's possible create a working model. Interesting.

At the end of the day, any casino will only offer bets that include some benefit to them, as in, the odds are against the gambler, and in favor of the casino.

It doesn't really matter how good the AI can predict the outcome, the odds are already calculated so that the casino will end up winning more than the gambler.

And the thing is that casinos are probably already using the most advanced AI models to generate their odds.

[Lucasgabd]

Well, unfortunately I haven’t been able to get AI to flat out predict the winner of sporting events yet. Sure, there’s ways around it with nonsense, but I’d really like to get the AI’s genuine opinion of who the winner of a sporting event will be. I guess this is still a no-no in the world of AI, but I’m certain it’s only a matter of time.

If you run enough queries you'll probably have lots of different results
those who think AI can predict things like that probably aren't familiar on how LLMs work, at least at this points an LLM is a bit more like a good model to select words according to the best mathematical/statistical response

[STT]

Asking for a full prediction would be industrial usage and they probably dont want people to do that even if it could be done with zero further work required.  I bet its possible but we'd have to guess on the accuracy of it all, perhaps that does not even matter so long as the machine can self examine the results and reasoning to then improve future bets.    I dont reckon AI is quite that good in terms of self improvement.
  Easiest way to get an answer from AI is ask for a story but then it might just say anything.

[Wakate]

ChatGPT is all the rage at the moment. I’ve seen that people are asking it to predict sporting events. Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet? Do we need someone to put together a thread of ChatGPT predictions to see how accurate they are?  Any other thoughts?

I don't think using artificial intelligence to predict sport bet could give an 100% winning rate since that is just a prediction and anything can happen in sport. Even the most advanced and professional team can lose matches to newbie team that do not even have a great experience in sport. Sometimes luck happens especially in soccer games.

Using artificial intelligence can be a top notch that can help one to get a close outcome but can not be always accurate since the outcome is not mostly determined by game analyst or individual self. It all depends on people that are playing and the kind of momentum that can put in a game to have an excellent winning and also luck can be coupled to this to make an outcome become what we predicted.

[nullama]

~snip~
I don't think using artificial intelligence to predict sport bet could give an 100% winning rate since that is just a prediction and anything can happen in sport. Even the most advanced and professional team can lose matches to newbie team that do not even have a great experience in sport. Sometimes luck happens especially in soccer games.

Using artificial intelligence can be a top notch that can help one to get a close outcome but can not be always accurate since the outcome is not mostly determined by game analyst or individual self. It all depends on people that are playing and the kind of momentum that can put in a game to have an excellent winning and also luck can be coupled to this to make an outcome become what we predicted.

One thing that some people forget is that these AIs like chatGPT are not really an intelligent being. They are very good at generating text that reads like a text written by a human.

And that creates the illusion that the AI is some kind of smart being. It is really useful, but it is not really something that can be used to predict the future with more precision than what the current machines can do.

It's not magic basically, and the probabilities are still going to be there, and the casinos will only put odds that favor themselves.

[Latviand]

The current ChatGPT version only has 2022 data iirc so you're better off using Bard AI if you want to test out an AI's prediction on sports, Bard's still in experimental stage so tread lightly when you plan to use it for real.

OMG, you are right! I just checked and indeed Bard's knowledge is up to date:



I didn't know that, thank you! Have you tried to use Bard for predicting outcomes?

The only time that I've used Bard is for my work related stuff, creating Excel spreadsheets which is time consuming for me although it's very easy if you just know the ways to create the prompt. It's probably up to date because it's still on experimental stage so they want to feed Bard as much information as they can and probably make it a pay to use AI in the next year or two, for now it's a useful tool since you can get up to date information.

Regarding the morality of using AI for sportsbetting I think that it's not a bad idea to use them especially if it helps you put in perspective on the teams you want to bet on but using AI to bet blindly, I think it's stupid.

There's nothing immoral in using AI for sportsbetting. Unless it's forbidden by the site, you are good to go. But I undeerstand why the question arises. Anything new encounters suspicion and hostility at first. Like using zippers instead of buttons was considered "infernal" by some.

That's what I've said which I'm happy that you've agreed, although I frown upon the fact that betting sites would ban you if they ever suspect that you're using AI which is kind of stupid I guess because at most, the AI is pretty much just spouting common sense and you just want an affirmation so you can feel secure of your bet.

[dansus021]

To be honest, I'm generating the price of bitcoin or any kind of random number using the OpenAi chatGPT right now. Gamble cant be predicted especially with random numbers or bitcoin price I mean precisely. Si Usually I just talk to chat gpt and tell them to generate number in range between xx to xx. Till this date I never won but it is fun to chat with an AI hahahha

[moneystery]

with the increasing development of ai technology, it has become a technological model that can help people analyze and provide results according to the data they collect. with its ability to collect data and provide results according to the data collected, ai technology is very dependent on the credibility and accuracy of the data it obtains.

i think it is very possible for ai to be able to provide analysis of a match based on analyzing the information it needs and provide predictions. but the problem is because it relies on information, accuracy and varying information, which makes ai a technology that can be relied on but can also make errors which makes it unable to predict the outcome of a match accurately.

and because of this, maybe i will use ai as a tool to predict a match, but it is not the main tool for me to use it to predict. it is just a second tool to simplify my analysis and help me to make better decisions.

[slapper]

ChatGPT is all the rage at the moment. I’ve seen that people are asking it to predict sporting events. Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet? Do we need someone to put together a thread of ChatGPT predictions to see how accurate they are?  Any other thoughts?

I don't think using artificial intelligence to predict sport bet could give an 100% winning rate since that is just a prediction and anything can happen in sport. Even the most advanced and professional team can lose matches to newbie team that do not even have a great experience in sport. Sometimes luck happens especially in soccer games.

Using artificial intelligence can be a top notch that can help one to get a close outcome but can not be always accurate since the outcome is not mostly determined by game analyst or individual self. It all depends on people that are playing and the kind of momentum that can put in a game to have an excellent winning and also luck can be coupled to this to make an outcome become what we predicted.

Sports are unpredictable. Even the greatest team in the world, the reigning champions, can lose to the underdogs occasionally. It really is the beauty of the game. I'll tell you something, though: AI is changing the game. Yes, it is

AI does more than just forecast; it thoroughly examines millions of matches. It observes them, picks up lessons, and adjusts. It's like to having a true genius at your side. However, and I can't emphasize this enough, there is no guarantee of success—not even with AI. There's not. The intensity, unpredictability, and momentum have the power to drastically alter the course of the match

However, you should use AI if you want the highest possible chance at producing an accurate prediction. It's the future, it really is. But never, ever forget that there is never a guarantee when betting. There's always a possibility and a risk. However, you're tipping the odds in your favor when you use AI. And it really is a winning move, that one

[Betwrong]

~

Regarding the morality of using AI for sportsbetting I think that it's not a bad idea to use them especially if it helps you put in perspective on the teams you want to bet on but using AI to bet blindly, I think it's stupid.

There's nothing immoral in using AI for sportsbetting. Unless it's forbidden by the site, you are good to go. But I undeerstand why the question arises. Anything new encounters suspicion and hostility at first. Like using zippers instead of buttons was considered "infernal" by some.

That's what I've said which I'm happy that you've agreed, although I frown upon the fact that betting sites would ban you if they ever suspect that you're using AI which is kind of stupid I guess because at most, the AI is pretty much just spouting common sense and you just want an affirmation so you can feel secure of your bet.

Is it so? I've never encountered a gambling site where it's said in ToS that they will ban you if you are using AI. And I think that's because they don't regard it as a threat to them, gamblers using AI. At this point AI is in such state that some people can feel secure of their bet after consulting with it, but that would be not more than illusion.

[ethereumhunter]

with the increasing development of ai technology, it has become a technological model that can help people analyze and provide results according to the data they collect. with its ability to collect data and provide results according to the data collected, ai technology is very dependent on the credibility and accuracy of the data it obtains.

i think it is very possible for ai to be able to provide analysis of a match based on analyzing the information it needs and provide predictions. but the problem is because it relies on information, accuracy and varying information, which makes ai a technology that can be relied on but can also make errors which makes it unable to predict the outcome of a match accurately.

and because of this, maybe i will use ai as a tool to predict a match, but it is not the main tool for me to use it to predict. it is just a second tool to simplify my analysis and help me to make better decisions.

AI can provide more accurate analysis and collection of data and information. But it will still take time until we get AI technology that matches what we need. At the moment, we haven't found it because the developers are still compiling or finding the right codes that can help humans collect information more quickly and accurately.

Until now, we can only enjoy what is already there and it can work well. Later, if there is an update from the developer that they have made an even better AI, we can try it and see how accurately the technology helps us collect information. It is not easy to create AI that suits what we want because developers have to test what they create to find one that is truly suitable for human use.

If later there is AI that can help collect data more quickly, it will help us to analyze the match so we can immediately place bets. But it looks like there will also be AI that can provide the percentage odds for each team so that we can choose based on what we know.

[Latviand]

~

Is it so? I've never encountered a gambling site where it's said in ToS that they will ban you if you are using AI. And I think that's because they don't regard it as a threat to them, gamblers using AI. At this point AI is in such state that some people can feel secure of their bet after consulting with it, but that would be not more than illusion.

Well, they need to update their ToS then because if not then they might find someone that will be winning a lot and they might suspect them of using AI and then ban them but then end up with them not on the right because they didn't have anything saying that prohibiting in their ToS the usage of AI. That's going to be a problem that casinos have to deal with now or it will come back and bite them in the ass because AI is getting better much faster and I'm not talking about the research AI ones, I'm talking about the commercial ones, even the free ones are pretty useful for many stuff already. Also even if you didn't encounter any casino that will ban you, they can always justify that it's cheating because you had an assistance and we all know that they're going to be doing whatever it takes to not pay winners if they're able to do it.

[nullama]

~snip~
Well, they need to update their ToS then because if not then they might find someone that will be winning a lot and they might suspect them of using AI and then ban them but then end up with them not on the right because they didn't have anything saying that prohibiting in their ToS the usage of AI. That's going to be a problem that casinos have to deal with now or it will come back and bite them in the ass because AI is getting better much faster and I'm not talking about the research AI ones, I'm talking about the commercial ones, even the free ones are pretty useful for many stuff already. Also even if you didn't encounter any casino that will ban you, they can always justify that it's cheating because you had an assistance and we all know that they're going to be doing whatever it takes to not pay winners if they're able to do it.

The first thing that comes to mind to me is that basically it would be impossible to know someone was using an AI to make bets. How you come up with your bet is almost impossible to prove.

Second, is that AI might be great, but still the odds will probably be against you. So, yeah, maybe the AI can help you get closer to say 50/50 chances, but you still as a gambler will have slightly less odds, that's just how casinos design their games. It is basically impossible to bet on something that is not more favorable to the casino, by design.

[Betwrong]

~

Is it so? I've never encountered a gambling site where it's said in ToS that they will ban you if you are using AI. And I think that's because they don't regard it as a threat to them, gamblers using AI. At this point AI is in such state that some people can feel secure of their bet after consulting with it, but that would be not more than illusion.

Well, they need to update their ToS then because if not then they might find someone that will be winning a lot and they might suspect them of using AI and then ban them but then end up with them not on the right because they didn't have anything saying that prohibiting in their ToS the usage of AI. That's going to be a problem that casinos have to deal with now or it will come back and bite them in the ass because AI is getting better much faster and I'm not talking about the research AI ones, I'm talking about the commercial ones, even the free ones are pretty useful for many stuff already. Also even if you didn't encounter any casino that will ban you, they can always justify that it's cheating because you had an assistance and we all know that they're going to be doing whatever it takes to not pay winners if they're able to do it.

Yes, AIs are useful, but,for better or worse, not for making bets. I've checked that many times for sports betting, and and it gives you no edge whatsoever. Can you use AI to predict outcomes of slot games and dice? Well, that's a deeply philosophical question, innit?

~snip~

The first thing that comes to mind to me is that basically it would be impossible to know someone was using an AI to make bets. How you come up with your bet is almost impossible to prove.
~

I think the same, but that's if you bet manually. If it's a bot of some kind, it can be spotted I think.

[Lucasgabd]

To be honest, I'm generating the price of bitcoin or any kind of random number using the OpenAi chatGPT right now. Gamble cant be predicted especially with random numbers or bitcoin price I mean precisely. Si Usually I just talk to chat gpt and tell them to generate number in range between xx to xx. Till this date I never won but it is fun to chat with an AI hahahha

understanding that creation of phrases and numbers using an statistical model for the best possible response is different than predicting the future is a must

this article on how LLMs work is quite good to grasp the basics
What Is ChatGPT Doing … and Why Does It Work?

still a funny game, as you mentioned, but probably won't be so accurate, if it gets it right it'll be more due to luck than due to skill, kind like an oracle, maybe