[POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes

[Lucasgabd]

-snip

And just the same, even it's 99% the remaining percentage can still bring you to lose your bet, remember it's gambling and there are many things that will influence the potential outcome, I see the point where it can be developed and it can find more information but the accuracy especially when dealing in gambling, it's something that only luck can accurately dictate your winning chance.

in the end, from 99% there is still 1% luck left. as we saw when Barcelona played against Celta but Barcelona ended up losing, right?
well, this is an obvious case and maybe if using AI to predict the match AI will favor Barcelona because it is clear that the top team already has the perfect strength to beat Celta but luck of surprise and luck is always present in every sporting match.
so everything still depends on luck just like you said.

While those results happen from time to time it is not common and even casinos can suffer huge losses if someone was crazy enough to take a huge bet on favor of the underdog at the time.

So it is natural that even an AI will struggle to identify and accurately predict those results, still if given enough information about a particular sport and guiding the model in a very careful way I think it should be possible to produce an AI which could predict outcomes with enough accuracy to produce profits.

their profit margin is so high that losing once in a while wouldn't be a problem, probably.
even if they're losing millions, I'd expect online casinos to have an emergency reserve in cases of these issues.

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[OgNasty]

I still haven't found anyone using AI like this but I'm sure people must be doing it.  Is anyone aware of any reddit posts or other places that people may be discussing different prompts they are using to try and do this sort of gambling?  I'm very tempted to do some sort of thread documenting the success of AI in gambling decisions, but so far I haven't found a good method to do so.  Hopefully I get it figured out before the NBA season starts again.  It would be cool to start doing some fun stuff with AI when that time rolls around again.

[Oasisman]

I still haven't found anyone using AI like this but I'm sure people must be doing it.  Is anyone aware of any reddit posts or other places that people may be discussing different prompts they are using to try and do this sort of gambling?  I'm very tempted to do some sort of thread documenting the success of AI in gambling decisions, but so far I haven't found a good method to do so.  Hopefully I get it figured out before the NBA season starts again.  It would be cool to start doing some fun stuff with AI when that time rolls around again.

When you finally get this can you post it on another thread to see how effective AI prediction is?
However, I think there could be a separate software purely intended for sports prediction that collects data from the internet related with the certain sport like injury, rotation, and changes in roster updates for the AI to come up with it's own prediction. It's like a one stop shop for sports bettors to see the overall update for the teams you're most interested in betting LOL.

[Sithara007]

IMO, rather than the gamblers, AI will be more useful for sportsbooks to accurately place their odds. I have been gambling on different sports events for more than a decade now, and time to time I come across some really strange odds that doesn't make any sense. Usage of AI will remove any human error in determining these odds. But then, you can only improvise to a certain extent. You can get the odds as accurate as possible, by feeding all the available information. But then there will always be an unexpected result that will put these sportsbooks in deep red.

[nullama]

IMO, rather than the gamblers, AI will be more useful for sportsbooks to accurately place their odds. I have been gambling on different sports events for more than a decade now, and time to time I come across some really strange odds that doesn't make any sense. Usage of AI will remove any human error in determining these odds. But then, you can only improvise to a certain extent. You can get the odds as accurate as possible, by feeding all the available information. But then there will always be an unexpected result that will put these sportsbooks in deep red.

In my mind they are two very similar things.

One is the usage of AI to estimate the odds for the casinos, and the other is as a gambler calculate the odds and compare them with the published ones to find something interesting.

In the end, this could end up in something like the 2010 flash crash with high frequency traders.

[Doan9269]

IMO, rather than the gamblers, AI will be more useful for sportsbooks to accurately place their odds. I have been gambling on different sports events for more than a decade now, and time to time I come across some really strange odds that doesn't make any sense. Usage of AI will remove any human error in determining these odds. But then, you can only improvise to a certain extent. You can get the odds as accurate as possible, by feeding all the available information. But then there will always be an unexpected result that will put these sportsbooks in deep red.

Why must we totally dependson AI i gambling irrespective of the games or sports it's been applicable to, i may not go against this decision anyway as long as the gambling platforms aren't against it's use moreover the AI results were not always accurate, they are nothing than just an ordinary guess and try of luck but i wonder why many have so depends on using them to gamble thinking everything they offer are accurate enough.

[Fredomago]

IMO, rather than the gamblers, AI will be more useful for sportsbooks to accurately place their odds. I have been gambling on different sports events for more than a decade now, and time to time I come across some really strange odds that doesn't make any sense. Usage of AI will remove any human error in determining these odds. But then, you can only improvise to a certain extent. You can get the odds as accurate as possible, by feeding all the available information. But then there will always be an unexpected result that will put these sportsbooks in deep red.

I agree with this, AI system can be more useful for the casino owners/bookies, they can utilize the used of AI in placing the right odds selections, though I also understand that human error but it might just be a part of a trick where bookies are alluring bettors as we really can't tell what will be the outcome of the game that we are placing our bets.

We might see how it will work from both sides. Maximizing AI's capability is something that both gamblers and bookies will utilize for their own benefits.

[wxa7115]

IMO, rather than the gamblers, AI will be more useful for sportsbooks to accurately place their odds. I have been gambling on different sports events for more than a decade now, and time to time I come across some really strange odds that doesn't make any sense. Usage of AI will remove any human error in determining these odds. But then, you can only improvise to a certain extent. You can get the odds as accurate as possible, by feeding all the available information. But then there will always be an unexpected result that will put these sportsbooks in deep red.

I agree with this, AI system can be more useful for the casino owners/bookies, they can utilize the used of AI in placing the right odds selections, though I also understand that human error but it might just be a part of a trick where bookies are alluring bettors as we really can't tell what will be the outcome of the game that we are placing our bets.

We might see how it will work from both sides. Maximizing AI's capability is something that both gamblers and bookies will utilize for their own benefits.

Both parties will try to take advantage of it but most likely the casinos are going to be the big winners in all of this, when computers were developed and became portable enough casinos forbid the use of computers on their games, while they could use them as much as they wanted, and now most slot machines are nothing but a modified computer.

So I expect the same to happen with AI, basically they will forbid its use for their customers but casinos will be able to freely use it and obtain an edge in this way.

[Lucasgabd]

I still haven't found anyone using AI like this but I'm sure people must be doing it.  Is anyone aware of any reddit posts or other places that people may be discussing different prompts they are using to try and do this sort of gambling?  I'm very tempted to do some sort of thread documenting the success of AI in gambling decisions, but so far I haven't found a good method to do so.  Hopefully I get it figured out before the NBA season starts again.  It would be cool to start doing some fun stuff with AI when that time rolls around again.

you can find some stuff doing a quick twitter search

https://twitter.com/nwabishop/status/1673195137571119104?s=20

but you are right, there's not much content online yet
maybe in a couple months the trend will get more crowded

you know what they say too, less people, more opportunities, possibly.

[FanEagle]

Both parties will try to take advantage of it but most likely the casinos are going to be the big winners in all of this, when computers were developed and became portable enough casinos forbid the use of computers on their games, while they could use them as much as they wanted, and now most slot machines are nothing but a modified computer.

So I expect the same to happen with AI, basically they will forbid its use for their customers but casinos will be able to freely use it and obtain an edge in this way.

I agree that casinos will be able to take the biggest advantage but not because of them forbidding it or anything. It is an online casino so if we use it they would not know about it at all and we would just continue to use it.

I believe it is going to work better because AI would help them as well, and since most casinos have tens of millions of dollars to spend on such improvements on their casinos, and the smaller ones could just buy it after big ones build it, that means that we are going to see AI on the casino side as well. They will figure out a way to use it to make you lose more, and that means we are going to see a lot more changes eventually ,that will be a risky move but it will definitely be something to look out for as well.

[Unsoldier]

Many casino games, such as roulette, blackjack or slot machines, are built on a mathematical model known as 'casino advantage'. And there is no way to overcome it. That's why casinos always have an advantage over players. Even the most advanced artificial intelligence algorithms cannot change this basis. Casino winning is based on luck and probability. So the use of AI cannot guarantee consistent gambling profits.

[Fredomago]

Both parties will try to take advantage of it but most likely the casinos are going to be the big winners in all of this, when computers were developed and became portable enough casinos forbid the use of computers on their games, while they could use them as much as they wanted, and now most slot machines are nothing but a modified computer.

So I expect the same to happen with AI, basically they will forbid its use for their customers but casinos will be able to freely use it and obtain an edge in this way.

I agree that casinos will be able to take the biggest advantage but not because of them forbidding it or anything. It is an online casino so if we use it they would not know about it at all and we would just continue to use it.

I believe it is going to work better because AI would help them as well, and since most casinos have tens of millions of dollars to spend on such improvements on their casinos, and the smaller ones could just buy it after big ones build it, that means that we are going to see AI on the casino side as well. They will figure out a way to use it to make you lose more, and that means we are going to see a lot more changes eventually ,that will be a risky move but it will definitely be something to look out for as well.

That big advantage in terms of allocating enough amount of budget to find the right counter in case the use of AI is already being used by the gambler, unless the gambler who will use it will b wiser and after making huge amount will stop and will use the money to invest or to established passive income something like creating own business, once the casino already notice that kind of edge from the gambler, it will be a huge adjustment that they will going to do.

Making sure that it won't bankrupt the business and will try to recover and a possible to turn things back to their favor.

[klidex]

Many casino games, such as roulette, blackjack or slot machines, are built on a mathematical model known as 'casino advantage'. And there is no way to overcome it. That's why casinos always have an advantage over players. Even the most advanced artificial intelligence algorithms cannot change this basis. Casino winning is based on luck and probability. So the use of AI cannot guarantee consistent gambling profits.

I totally agree with what you said, this is the right answer for me when gamblers who use AI for predictions cannot be their guarantee for winning because the algorithms in gambling are always more complicated than AI.
But I have a thought that will this be forever or if sometime in the future AI developed by hackers can beat the casinos?
Because it can happen and opportunities like this are always opportunities for those who want to benefit from gambling.

[nullama]

I still haven't found anyone using AI like this but I'm sure people must be doing it.  Is anyone aware of any reddit posts or other places that people may be discussing different prompts they are using to try and do this sort of gambling?  I'm very tempted to do some sort of thread documenting the success of AI in gambling decisions, but so far I haven't found a good method to do so.  Hopefully I get it figured out before the NBA season starts again.  It would be cool to start doing some fun stuff with AI when that time rolls around again.

The thing is that, at least with OpenAI, the models are trained with old data, years old sometimes. So, you can't realistically use the ready models to ask for a prediction of a game that is happening soon.

The most important data, recent one, is not available in the model yet.

Maybe there are other models trained specifically to do this, including the latest results, and news, etc, but I haven't seen them yet. Maybe people are using them privately, which would make sense.

[Betwrong]

beyond this, the only evaluation that an AI can make is of the statistical type, it fits
but you could have done it before
perhaps now the advantage is that the complexity is hidden by a prompt, knowing which one it is obviously, because it is not really immediate

Yes it's true, but it's always like that with skill-based gambling, be it poker, sports betting or whatever. Your probability of winning can be high but your win is never guaranteed. Can AI better than us humans in calculating the probabilities? I think it can. And you are right, it heavily depends on the prompt.

[nelson4lov]

Yes it's true, but it's always like that with skill-based gambling, be it poker, sports betting or whatever. Your probability of winning can be high but your win is never guaranteed. Can AI better than us humans in calculating the probabilities? I think it can. And you are right, it heavily depends on the prompt.

I wouldn't rely too much on AI predictions simply because if it were anywhere to churning out accurate predictions right now, then, we'd have had an influx of new millionaires / billionaires and most bookmarkers would simply go out of business. Maybe for skill-based games rather than sports betting considering the fact that getting recent data to train a model would not be an easy task.

I've always viewed it as a tool to stop some repetitive tasks and it can be best used right now as a tool rather than a standalone system.

[Maslate]

-snip

And just the same, even it's 99% the remaining percentage can still bring you to lose your bet, remember it's gambling and there are many things that will influence the potential outcome, I see the point where it can be developed and it can find more information but the accuracy especially when dealing in gambling, it's something that only luck can accurately dictate your winning chance.

in the end, from 99% there is still 1% luck left. as we saw when Barcelona played against Celta but Barcelona ended up losing, right?
well, this is an obvious case and maybe if using AI to predict the match AI will favor Barcelona because it is clear that the top team already has the perfect strength to beat Celta but luck of surprise and luck is always present in every sporting match.
so everything still depends on luck just like you said.

While those results happen from time to time it is not common and even casinos can suffer huge losses if someone was crazy enough to take a huge bet on favor of the underdog at the time.

So it is natural that even an AI will struggle to identify and accurately predict those results, still if given enough information about a particular sport and guiding the model in a very careful way I think it should be possible to produce an AI which could predict outcomes with enough accuracy to produce profits.

their profit margin is so high that losing once in a while wouldn't be a problem, probably.
even if they're losing millions, I'd expect online casinos to have an emergency reserve in cases of these issues.

That is expected because they cannot really afford to file a bankruptcy just because of that incident that a random person was just too crazy and bet on the heavy underdog with millions without knowing that the team will actually win and upsets the heavy favorite, I know it's not a first but it's just too awesome to read that kind of stories.

Anyway, the casino/platform surely have their own reserves for cases like that as it's not really everyday that they will have the favor because once in a while, they also know that there is really that person who is just too lucky on that certain day will have crazy bets just because of that factor.

[nullama]

~snip~
I wouldn't rely too much on AI predictions simply because if it were anywhere to churning out accurate predictions right now, then, we'd have had an influx of new millionaires / billionaires and most bookmarkers would simply go out of business. Maybe for skill-based games rather than sports betting considering the fact that getting recent data to train a model would not be an easy task.

I've always viewed it as a tool to stop some repetitive tasks and it can be best used right now as a tool rather than a standalone system.

Also the casinos probably are already using the latest advances in AI to predict their odds. And at the end of the day their odds always give them a nice advantage to the house, so it doesn't matter that you can predict correctly the odds, the house still has the advantage.

Example, a coin flip. Your AI predicts it has 50% chance of hitting tails. Casino pays odds of 40-60 for tails(slight advantage for casino). In the long term, casino will keep all your money because of that difference. See?, it doesn't matter if you have a perfect prediction of the odds.

[noormcs5]

~snip~
I wouldn't rely too much on AI predictions simply because if it were anywhere to churning out accurate predictions right now, then, we'd have had an influx of new millionaires / billionaires and most bookmarkers would simply go out of business. Maybe for skill-based games rather than sports betting considering the fact that getting recent data to train a model would not be an easy task.

I've always viewed it as a tool to stop some repetitive tasks and it can be best used right now as a tool rather than a standalone system.

Also the casinos probably are already using the latest advances in AI to predict their odds. And at the end of the day their odds always give them a nice advantage to the house, so it doesn't matter that you can predict correctly the odds, the house still has the advantage.

Example, a coin flip. Your AI predicts it has 50% chance of hitting tails. Casino pays odds of 40-60 for tails(slight advantage for casino). In the long term, casino will keep all your money because of that difference. See?, it doesn't matter if you have a perfect prediction of the odds.

The casino does have an advantage over the odds because of the house edges but that does not apply to sports betting. People can still use AI to choose the most perfect entry for sports betting.

When we place a bet, we see all the past records of the team and then place the bet on the stronger team hoping they will repeat the same performance again. When we take help from the AI to calculate the past performances, we would get the most accurate data in very less time and thus it will hep us choose the more appropriate team to bet on.

[Lanatsa]

~snip~
I wouldn't rely too much on AI predictions simply because if it were anywhere to churning out accurate predictions right now, then, we'd have had an influx of new millionaires / billionaires and most bookmarkers would simply go out of business. Maybe for skill-based games rather than sports betting considering the fact that getting recent data to train a model would not be an easy task.

I've always viewed it as a tool to stop some repetitive tasks and it can be best used right now as a tool rather than a standalone system.

Also the casinos probably are already using the latest advances in AI to predict their odds. And at the end of the day their odds always give them a nice advantage to the house, so it doesn't matter that you can predict correctly the odds, the house still has the advantage.

Example, a coin flip. Your AI predicts it has 50% chance of hitting tails. Casino pays odds of 40-60 for tails(slight advantage for casino). In the long term, casino will keep all your money because of that difference. See?, it doesn't matter if you have a perfect prediction of the odds.

The casino does have an advantage over the odds because of the house edges but that does not apply to sports betting. People can still use AI to choose the most perfect entry for sports betting.

When we place a bet, we see all the past records of the team and then place the bet on the stronger team hoping they will repeat the same performance again. When we take help from the AI to calculate the past performances, we would get the most accurate data in very less time and thus it will hep us choose the more appropriate team to bet on.

When it comes to gambling like sports betting on which we could be able to know or accumulate those good information about their history or simply speaking about numbers then it is really that an advantage
since you could be able to point out on what are their strenghts and weaknesses plus having the kind of comparison in between teams about statistics on which you would really be able to create that
analysis basing into those informations that you had gathered on which i could say that it is really that relevant.

We know that there are games which cant really be that affected with this like on luck based gambling games which are been ran by codes on where those are totally random.There's no way that it could
really be able to know on what are those possible outcomes on which a certain game would be having. This is why there's no sense on trying out to make use of AI just to know or on having
this kind of belief that AI would really be relevant on having that advantage on your gambling activity on which i could say that there's no really sense on doing so.