[POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes

[nullama]

In my opinion, as long as there are fixed matches in sports, no matter how cool the AI is, it, like any good analyst, will make mistakes for reasons beyond its control. AI can achieve great results in forecasting, but only if the human factor will be excluded from the sport, for example soccer will be played by robots. But it seems to me that it won't be as interesting as a match with real players. But I am interested to see the statistics of AI predictions.

Yeah, in 2050 actually the RoboCup league has a plan to compete against the human champions.

We'll see how it goes, but you're right, when robots play they are too good, so it's not as entertaining.

It's fun to watch robots play maybe for a couple of minutes, but after that it's not as good. People like watching other people do things, not machines.

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[KTChampions]

In my opinion, as long as there are fixed matches in sports, no matter how cool the AI is, it, like any good analyst, will make mistakes for reasons beyond its control. AI can achieve great results in forecasting, but only if the human factor will be excluded from the sport, for example soccer will be played by robots. But it seems to me that it won't be as interesting as a match with real players. But I am interested to see the statistics of AI predictions.

Fixed games make up a tiny fraction of the total number of games and do not greatly affect AI results. In addition, all results are compared with each other (for example, with expert forecasts), so everyone suffers from such fluctuations to the same extent.
As for errors, when we talk about random events, this is a very vague concept. For example, AI predicts that a team will draw with a 60% chance, win with a 20% chance, and lose with a 20% chance. What should be the result for you to say that the prediction was correct? Valuation is only possible over a long distance, and as far as I know, quote providers are already approaching an accuracy of 1%.

[nullama]

~snip~
Fixed games make up a tiny fraction of the total number of games and do not greatly affect AI results. In addition, all results are compared with each other (for example, with expert forecasts), so everyone suffers from such fluctuations to the same extent.
As for errors, when we talk about random events, this is a very vague concept. For example, AI predicts that a team will draw with a 60% chance, win with a 20% chance, and lose with a 20% chance. What should be the result for you to say that the prediction was correct? Valuation is only possible over a long distance, and as far as I know, quote providers are already approaching an accuracy of 1%.

Yeah, if fixing games becomes more popular they would be immediately discovered and banned altogether, so it will never become a massive issue.

And yeah, an AI will be able, and is able right now, to give proper estimations of the results of a game. It can absolutely be tuned for this, but of course it's still a random event so anything can happen.

[Lucasgabd]

In my opinion, as long as there are fixed matches in sports, no matter how cool the AI is, it, like any good analyst, will make mistakes for reasons beyond its control. AI can achieve great results in forecasting, but only if the human factor will be excluded from the sport, for example soccer will be played by robots. But it seems to me that it won't be as interesting as a match with real players. But I am interested to see the statistics of AI predictions.

Fixed games make up a tiny fraction of the total number of games and do not greatly affect AI results. In addition, all results are compared with each other (for example, with expert forecasts), so everyone suffers from such fluctuations to the same extent.
As for errors, when we talk about random events, this is a very vague concept. For example, AI predicts that a team will draw with a 60% chance, win with a 20% chance, and lose with a 20% chance. What should be the result for you to say that the prediction was correct? Valuation is only possible over a long distance, and as far as I know, quote providers are already approaching an accuracy of 1%.

that reminds me of the wisdom of the masses, that averaging in lots of predictions usually give a better result (on average lol) than individual predictions

I wonder if there's people studying that using the existing prediction markets and sports betting platforms at this moment.
have you heard of something like that?

[Aikidoka]

ChatGPT is all the rage at the moment. I’ve seen that people are asking it to predict sporting events. Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet? Do we need someone to put together a thread of ChatGPT predictions to see how accurate they are?  Any other thoughts?

ChatGPT won't be of a huge assistance when it comes to gambling since it's an AI that provides predictions based on the information it has access to. It could be that AI predictions can be accurate at times but they do not guarantee 100% accuracy for your bets. I would not recommend relying totally on artificial intelligence for making gambling decisions. However, it can be beneficial to receive predictions from AI as an additional tool to help you in making your own betting choices.

It can provide logical predictions that are helpful, but it's important to remember that real-life results can vary depending on the specific games you're betting on. Anyway, I just voted "NO".

[nullama]

~snip~
that reminds me of the wisdom of the masses, that averaging in lots of predictions usually give a better result (on average lol) than individual predictions

I wonder if there's people studying that using the existing prediction markets and sports betting platforms at this moment.
have you heard of something like that?

Bees usually make their decisions this way.

Some bees go out and try to find their next home, each one of them come back and start dancing while pointing to the direction of their new potential home, with an intensity proportional to how good the home is.

After a while, the home with most "votes" gets chosen by the hive and they actually end up with the best suitable home almost all the time.

[SamReomo]

ChatGPT is all the rage at the moment. I’ve seen that people are asking it to predict sporting events. Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet? Do we need someone to put together a thread of ChatGPT predictions to see how accurate they are?  Any other thoughts?

They are doing the worst thing of their life because that chat bot is unable to predict anything accurately. Those who are gambling with the help of such bot are the ones who will use in long run. The bot can't predict the future and it isn't even able to access the current day's data. If someone feeds it the data and ask it to predict the coming events then that person is a naive in my eyes because that person already know that the bot is unable to understand everything and is still relying on its predictions.

I personally would never allow a bot to predict something for me because I really know that the predictions the bot will generate are likely going to be wrong. And, even if the bot does predict something right one or two times that doesn't mean that it will predict everything rightly.  Again, it's only a bot, and it won't be accused of fooling us if the prediction goes wrong and we lose a big bet because of the wrong prediction.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I agree with you, it's more fun, innit, to use your own mind when making your bets. I can imagine how boring it can become to use AI all the time, especially when everyone will be using it and hence the outcome odds will be decreased to something like 1.02. I  think it will be fun in the early stages, though. During the first couple of month when AI is possible to use for sports betting, it'll be fun, imo.

maybe every gambler will simultaneously try to predict using AI when the AI hype is currently underway and those who try to predict use AI because they want to get experience from something different that has never been experienced in gambling. however, eventually boredom will set in when overusing the AI and even worse when the AI's predictions are imprecise and eventually decide to make their own predictions.
until now, most gamblers still doubt AI and some are skeptical about the results shown by AI. but in essence it will be more interesting and feel curious and feel satisfied when making prediction decisions by yourself.

for me this topic has a lot to do with people's desire of generating passive income without a lot of work
it may or may not work
I think AI will be more useful in other areas and automations than in betting but we will see.

If, in fact, things are like this at the moment, can't we trust an AI to place bets, or even worse to tell us a possible prediction of a football game or similar? no , because the AI does not have that part yet very well trained, I know that there are many programmers who put an AI to learn about this, and they have and can have very good results, but it is not yet 100% developed, in fact a One of the things for which many pay ChatGPT4 is for that, but not everyone can have Access to the golden goose eggs, it should already be there , but they won't scare the world just like that.

[wxa7115]

Unfortunately those sources are not to be trusted either, while it is very difficult for a news agency to remain impartial and neutral, the truth is that most of them do not even try anymore and everything they report has a very strong bias, and this has caused people to stop trusting them.

Now this is sooner or later going to create a huge problem of trust among the whole society as now we cannot even trust our eyes as everything that we see could be manipulated with the use of AI, a scenario similar to the one depicted on the novel 1984.

Perhaps, that's what triggers some countries to want to regulate the use of AI because of misinformation about the news they want to find. And this makes many developers continue to work hard to improve AI to provide more valid information and not provide wrong information to users. And we as users have to be more careful in using AI, and we also have to have more sources that can provide additional information about the news we are looking for. Before we use AI to predict the results, we must compare the information obtained by AI with the information we get to know whether the information is valid or have to look for additional information.

Personally I have never been a fan when it comes to forbidding a particular technology as people will always find a way around it, but on the case of deepfakes this may be the only solution, even an image which has been edited can still be proven to be false by experts with the right technology.

But I really think we may get to the point in which deepfakes may get so realistic that no one will be able to distinguish them, and this could increase the sense of chaos people feel as they will not know what to believe anymore.

[Betwrong]

ChatGPT is all the rage at the moment. I’ve seen that people are asking it to predict sporting events. Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet? Do we need someone to put together a thread of ChatGPT predictions to see how accurate they are?  Any other thoughts?

ChatGPT won't be of a huge assistance when it comes to gambling since it's an AI that provides predictions based on the information it has access to. It could be that AI predictions can be accurate at times but they do not guarantee 100% accuracy for your bets. I would not recommend relying totally on artificial intelligence for making gambling decisions. However, it can be beneficial to receive predictions from AI as an additional tool to help you in making your own betting choices.

It can provide logical predictions that are helpful, but it's important to remember that real-life results can vary depending on the specific games you're betting on. Anyway, I just voted "NO".

Like most people here, but I don't understand why. Why not try something new? Make the smallest bets possible, and if you are not satisfied with the results, drop it. But what if you'll see that the predictions are more accurate than yours? Will you still be ignoring it?  I mean, you might, if relying on AI isn't entertaining for you and your goal is to gamble for fun(which is the right goal imo), but for me it will be the other way round. Even if the AI predictions will be, on average, worse than mine, I will be still using AI from time to time, because it's fun for me.

[Lucasgabd]

Unfortunately those sources are not to be trusted either, while it is very difficult for a news agency to remain impartial and neutral, the truth is that most of them do not even try anymore and everything they report has a very strong bias, and this has caused people to stop trusting them.

Now this is sooner or later going to create a huge problem of trust among the whole society as now we cannot even trust our eyes as everything that we see could be manipulated with the use of AI, a scenario similar to the one depicted on the novel 1984.

Perhaps, that's what triggers some countries to want to regulate the use of AI because of misinformation about the news they want to find. And this makes many developers continue to work hard to improve AI to provide more valid information and not provide wrong information to users. And we as users have to be more careful in using AI, and we also have to have more sources that can provide additional information about the news we are looking for. Before we use AI to predict the results, we must compare the information obtained by AI with the information we get to know whether the information is valid or have to look for additional information.

Personally I have never been a fan when it comes to forbidding a particular technology as people will always find a way around it, but on the case of deepfakes this may be the only solution, even an image which has been edited can still be proven to be false by experts with the right technology.

But I really think we may get to the point in which deepfakes may get so realistic that no one will be able to distinguish them, and this could increase the sense of chaos people feel as they will not know what to believe anymore.

I think this is already happening
for me seems like the way to go with deepfakes is not trying to prove what is real or false but teaching people to have critical thinking (hard, specially in poorer countries) and also use crypto/blockchain as means to verify veracity of information

probably the best ways

[nullama]

~snip~
I think this is already happening
for me seems like the way to go with deepfakes is not trying to prove what is real or false but teaching people to have critical thinking (hard, specially in poorer countries) and also use crypto/blockchain as means to verify veracity of information

probably the best ways

It's a tricky situation where we are at the moment.

Fake images generated by a computer that look no different than a real one are already out there.

That means that all the emotions that a photo can generate can be created on the fly to create whatever emotion you want.

And also videos are starting to become very close to real.

I don't think the general population has critical thinking.

[maydna]

Unfortunately those sources are not to be trusted either, while it is very difficult for a news agency to remain impartial and neutral, the truth is that most of them do not even try anymore and everything they report has a very strong bias, and this has caused people to stop trusting them.

Now this is sooner or later going to create a huge problem of trust among the whole society as now we cannot even trust our eyes as everything that we see could be manipulated with the use of AI, a scenario similar to the one depicted on the novel 1984.

Perhaps, that's what triggers some countries to want to regulate the use of AI because of misinformation about the news they want to find. And this makes many developers continue to work hard to improve AI to provide more valid information and not provide wrong information to users. And we as users have to be more careful in using AI, and we also have to have more sources that can provide additional information about the news we are looking for. Before we use AI to predict the results, we must compare the information obtained by AI with the information we get to know whether the information is valid or have to look for additional information.

Personally I have never been a fan when it comes to forbidding a particular technology as people will always find a way around it, but on the case of deepfakes this may be the only solution, even an image which has been edited can still be proven to be false by experts with the right technology.

But I really think we may get to the point in which deepfakes may get so realistic that no one will be able to distinguish them, and this could increase the sense of chaos people feel as they will not know what to believe anymore.

So we have to be really careful when getting info from anywhere because even if the info looks reliable and comes from a trusted source, that doesn't guarantee it can provide valid info. And while AI has not been fully used or is still in development, we can learn more to distinguish between real and fake so we won't be fooled. At the very least, we prevent the fake evidence we find. And to predict a match, we also have to find the info because even though we have used AI to make it easier to search, we also have always to check it so there are no mistakes in predicting or knowing what percentage chance we have to win.

[nullama]

~snip~
So we have to be really careful when getting info from anywhere because even if the info looks reliable and comes from a trusted source, that doesn't guarantee it can provide valid info. And while AI has not been fully used or is still in development, we can learn more to distinguish between real and fake so we won't be fooled. At the very least, we prevent the fake evidence we find. And to predict a match, we also have to find the info because even though we have used AI to make it easier to search, we also have always to check it so there are no mistakes in predicting or knowing what percentage chance we have to win.

Well, the thing is that an AI will be able to calculate those odds with way more precision than any human could ever do.

The key is to be able to find a way to make that process profitable, because most of the time the casinos will have their odds in their favor.

[Lanatsa]

Unfortunately those sources are not to be trusted either, while it is very difficult for a news agency to remain impartial and neutral, the truth is that most of them do not even try anymore and everything they report has a very strong bias, and this has caused people to stop trusting them.

Now this is sooner or later going to create a huge problem of trust among the whole society as now we cannot even trust our eyes as everything that we see could be manipulated with the use of AI, a scenario similar to the one depicted on the novel 1984.

Perhaps, that's what triggers some countries to want to regulate the use of AI because of misinformation about the news they want to find. And this makes many developers continue to work hard to improve AI to provide more valid information and not provide wrong information to users. And we as users have to be more careful in using AI, and we also have to have more sources that can provide additional information about the news we are looking for. Before we use AI to predict the results, we must compare the information obtained by AI with the information we get to know whether the information is valid or have to look for additional information.

Personally I have never been a fan when it comes to forbidding a particular technology as people will always find a way around it, but on the case of deepfakes this may be the only solution, even an image which has been edited can still be proven to be false by experts with the right technology.

But I really think we may get to the point in which deepfakes may get so realistic that no one will be able to distinguish them, and this could increase the sense of chaos people feel as they will not know what to believe anymore.

So we have to be really careful when getting info from anywhere because even if the info looks reliable and comes from a trusted source, that doesn't guarantee it can provide valid info. And while AI has not been fully used or is still in development, we can learn more to distinguish between real and fake so we won't be fooled. At the very least, we prevent the fake evidence we find. And to predict a match, we also have to find the info because even though we have used AI to make it easier to search, we also have always to check it so there are no mistakes in predicting or knowing what percentage chance we have to win.

Bare in mind that AI is really just making out that kind of response basing on whats been put up into their library.Yes, it might be that getting sophisticated on the time comes but this isnt something that would

really be able to deal up with something that speculative which is something that AI cant really be able to predict out.They could give out some various information but those would be basing up with facts
and something that had already happened. For knowing information then it would really be that relevant but asking about on things which are still happening in the future or something that
talks about gambling then it isnt really something that you could really rely on. I dont know if there are people who are making use of AI on predicting games.
Nothing beats out if you are the ones who do make out searches and make out those analysis out of those things and would be something considerable than on relying with AI.

[maydna]

Well, the thing is that an AI will be able to calculate those odds with way more precision than any human could ever do.

The key is to be able to find a way to make that process profitable, because most of the time the casinos will have their odds in their favor.

Undoubtedly, AI is a super fast computer that can calculate all the opportunities that exist quickly compared if we search for ourselves. And if we can use it to our advantage, we will surely have a chance to win. But the casinos will still get the biggest advantage because there won't be many who will use AI and only certain gamblers.

Bare in mind that AI is really just making out that kind of response basing on whats been put up into their library.Yes, it might be that getting sophisticated on the time comes but this isnt something that would really be able to deal up with something that speculative which is something that AI cant really be able to predict out.They could give out some various information but those would be basing up with facts and something that had already happened. For knowing information then it would really be that relevant but asking about on things which are still happening in the future or something that talks about gambling then it isnt really something that you could really rely on. I dont know if there are people who are making use of AI on predicting games.
Nothing beats out if you are the ones who do make out searches and make out those analysis out of those things and would be something considerable than on relying with AI.

AI will become more sophisticated than now, so it will help us get more accurate information from the data we get. But we still can't leave the decision to AI because we must decide which one we choose based on all the data we have collected. Perhaps, for now, it's still strange if some people use AI in a way that AI hasn't progressed too well. We should wait until the time comes to see what will happen to the AI that can help us in our gambles.

[Lucasgabd]

Well, the thing is that an AI will be able to calculate those odds with way more precision than any human could ever do.

The key is to be able to find a way to make that process profitable, because most of the time the casinos will have their odds in their favor.

Undoubtedly, AI is a super fast computer that can calculate all the opportunities that exist quickly compared if we search for ourselves. And if we can use it to our advantage, we will surely have a chance to win. But the casinos will still get the biggest advantage because there won't be many who will use AI and only certain gamblers.

Bare in mind that AI is really just making out that kind of response basing on whats been put up into their library.Yes, it might be that getting sophisticated on the time comes but this isnt something that would really be able to deal up with something that speculative which is something that AI cant really be able to predict out.They could give out some various information but those would be basing up with facts and something that had already happened. For knowing information then it would really be that relevant but asking about on things which are still happening in the future or something that talks about gambling then it isnt really something that you could really rely on. I dont know if there are people who are making use of AI on predicting games.
Nothing beats out if you are the ones who do make out searches and make out those analysis out of those things and would be something considerable than on relying with AI.

AI will become more sophisticated than now, so it will help us get more accurate information from the data we get. But we still can't leave the decision to AI because we must decide which one we choose based on all the data we have collected. Perhaps, for now, it's still strange if some people use AI in a way that AI hasn't progressed too well. We should wait until the time comes to see what will happen to the AI that can help us in our gambles.

the interesting thing is that the day we won't be able to identify if a text was written by and AI or not, or if an image was generated by AI or not, is not so far away
exponential techonologies are awesome (and can be dangerous sometimes)

the future will be really interesting to watch and participate.

[len01]

AI will become more sophisticated than now, so it will help us get more accurate information from the data we get. But we still can't leave the decision to AI because we must decide which one we choose based on all the data we have collected. Perhaps, for now, it's still strange if some people use AI in a way that AI hasn't progressed too well. We should wait until the time comes to see what will happen to the AI that can help us in our gambles.

as the days go by, there will certainly always be technological improvements, and one of them, AI will always be developed with adoption to get very accurate results, even if only 90%. however, in this adoption we should not rely on predictions or anything that has been displayed by AI because everything is still inaccurate and still has 10% error even though it has been developed to be more accurate.
so it would be better if AI was only used as a second option to consider or strengthen our predictions for betting.

[Mahanton]

Well, the thing is that an AI will be able to calculate those odds with way more precision than any human could ever do.

The key is to be able to find a way to make that process profitable, because most of the time the casinos will have their odds in their favor.

Undoubtedly, AI is a super fast computer that can calculate all the opportunities that exist quickly compared if we search for ourselves. And if we can use it to our advantage, we will surely have a chance to win. But the casinos will still get the biggest advantage because there won't be many who will use AI and only certain gamblers.

Bare in mind that AI is really just making out that kind of response basing on whats been put up into their library.Yes, it might be that getting sophisticated on the time comes but this isnt something that would really be able to deal up with something that speculative which is something that AI cant really be able to predict out.They could give out some various information but those would be basing up with facts and something that had already happened. For knowing information then it would really be that relevant but asking about on things which are still happening in the future or something that talks about gambling then it isnt really something that you could really rely on. I dont know if there are people who are making use of AI on predicting games.
Nothing beats out if you are the ones who do make out searches and make out those analysis out of those things and would be something considerable than on relying with AI.

AI will become more sophisticated than now, so it will help us get more accurate information from the data we get. But we still can't leave the decision to AI because we must decide which one we choose based on all the data we have collected. Perhaps, for now, it's still strange if some people use AI in a way that AI hasn't progressed too well. We should wait until the time comes to see what will happen to the AI that can help us in our gambles.

the interesting thing is that the day we won't be able to identify if a text was written by and AI or not, or if an image was generated by AI or not, is not so far away
exponential techonologies are awesome (and can be dangerous sometimes)

the future will be really interesting to watch and participate.

Innovation and changes is really that something inevitable but its true that it does really impose such risks and con's if it was been used on the other way around but in overall it would really be that something beneficial.There are really just that people who are really that skeptical on things on what would be the possible risks that lies ahead about AI but for now its better not to mind it off and would be focusing
about into its benefits rather than into that imposed risks.Just like on what others been saying about using it up on predicting outcomes then it would really be just that common sense that AI isnt something
that would really be good at it or would be making 100% precise predictions basing up on a certain sport or fight or whatsoever. They might be that  good when it comes to information gathering
basing up into its library and would be basing into those information on which it could be able to formulate one if it wanted or been asked.

[Renampun]

ChatGPT is all the rage at the moment. I’ve seen that people are asking it to predict sporting events. Would you leave gambling decisions up to artificial intelligence? Do you see any potential drawbacks for outsourcing your bets to a software program? Has anyone here tried this yet? Do we need someone to put together a thread of ChatGPT predictions to see how accurate they are?  Any other thoughts?

too risky to leave our betting decisions to artificial intelligence imo, then I won't do it.
Just imagine, is it possible for ChatGPT to accurately and precisely predict yesterday's match in the European Cup final match between Sevilla vs Roma, I'm sure everyone must answer it's impossible.

it is not easy to be able to get accurate predictions, the data collected alone will not be 100% correct because soccer betting is still dominated by luck.