2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Haunebu]

I dont want and like to turn into direct politics discussion, but from the moment it was decided to replace Joe Bined with Kamala Harris, I think it was clear that Trump is going to win this race.

You couldn't be more wrong. On the contrary, Trump and his camp went haywire when Biden was replaced with Harris since they were not prepared for it thanks to which Harris actually has a decent chance of winning.

Democrats want to sell that since they know they are way behind Trumps influence and they want people think that if they going to vote for Harris then people will be part of historic changes in US.

Silly reasoning. If Trump's influence was as good as you stated, he would have won the 2nd term instead of losing to Biden. The dude is only back in contention thanks to Biden messing up badly.

[EarnOnVictor]

An obvious sell-out and a moron.
Harris has reiterated several times that she continues to support the idea of ​​taxes on unrealized gains. This is anti-human in itself, but for crypto it is expressed even more strongly and any crypto enthusiast clearly understands this. Anyone in the cryptosphere who publicly supports Harris is a sellout.

I don't know from where I get this confidence that Harris won't defeat Trump. Maybe it's from the fact of what you enumerated above or from my observation that Americans aren't ready yet for a woman to preside over them. If they were, seeing how they loved Hillary Clinton, they would've elected her president in her contest against Trump. She was popular among them, yet they denied her that experience of the White House. I believe Harris will get a severe defeat of her life at the polls come November 5th.

Harris has already suffered a crushing defeat when she scored a disgraceful 1% in the primaries. The problem is that this story is not about the elections but about possible cheating. If I were sure that the Democrats would not cheat (with mail-in voting as was the case when Biden won), I would have already bet all my free money on Trump. You don't find such easy money every year.

You may check CNN & Politico

I wonder where you are getting your information from, Harris is doing well in her campaign and the automatic endorsement by Biden, Obama, Clinton and others has helped her to be almost unanimously nominated by the Democratic party and she even tripled Trump's fundraising in August, what extra proof do you need that this women is a viable contender that is widely appreciated and wanted by both her party and the American people? My focus now is the presidential debate slated for 11/09 (Wednesday), if she performs well, not even Trump is her limit.

[Gheka]

So looking at the bookmakers chart board here, recalling in reality that Donald Trumps is most influential in the era of the anticipated election, there comes high possibilities that Donald may win followed by Joe Biden before others are considered based of media speculations and so much their odds differs too just as sighted with a good strategic winning.

That was before but long time ago Joe Biden has already conceded this race and gave up his candidacy already.

He has shown his support to Kamala Harris. So, this presidential election is now about Kamala Harris and Donald Trump although there are still a lot of names in there.

More precisely, during Joe Biden's term, he seemed to have failed to gain the trust of the people and the benefits behind him, his support was only at a relative level, instead of fiercely competing with strong opponents, he chose the wise strategy of supporting someone with the ability. And of course with two names Trump and Kamala Harris, it is difficult for him to side with his old opponent. Another problem is that Donald Trump will often be very strong in supporting and attracting voters, but the results in return are often not favorable, which makes us doubt that the presidential seat may belong to Kamala Harris.

[Webetcoins]

The debate will be the one that changes the odds and the polls a lot. It's in 10th I think, not entirely sure but an article I just saw says 10th so I assume it's then. This time, mics will be turned off, and that means people can't interrupt each other, which we know Trump likes to do.

That's the reason why the mics will be turned off when it is not their turn, think about how much of a dick you have to be that they would have to turn your mic off when it is not your turn, this is a dude who can't even comprehend "wait your turn" and would have to be stopped technically just to make him shut up, and people are still willing to vote for him. In any case, I think Kamala will eat him up, but Trump still has a chance to win because he does apply to more rural areas and rural areas wins elections.

[Hispo]

...

All that it is because how desastrous the lastest presidential election debates have been because of Trump. I still recall the election debate Trump had with Joe Biden bad in 2020, Donald could not help but to taunt Biden each time he had the chance to, I recall there were people who even called it the worst debate they had seen in their lives, for the lack of respect and order there was.
Since then, in this year there have been only highly moderated debates which feature mics getting turn of.
I anticipate (and I hope) it won't be further necessary for debates to be moderated that way once Trump is retired from his political life.
Trump strategy for this debate is probably going to be the same from the previous occasion: lying non-stop, belittling the state of the nation and the presidency of the democrat party (Joe Biden and Kamala Harris).

It is very likely Trump won't get fact checked on live TV by moderators, so the chances of him winning (because of people who believe his lies) are going to increase a bit after the debate is done. No moderator will be able to interrupt him each time he lies and correct him, it would take much time.

[Docnaster]

The debate will be the one that changes the odds and the polls a lot. It's in 10th I think, not entirely sure but an article I just saw says 10th so I assume it's then. This time, mics will be turned off, and that means people can't interrupt each other, which we know Trump likes to do.

That's the reason why the mics will be turned off when it is not their turn, think about how much of a dick you have to be that they would have to turn your mic off when it is not your turn, this is a dude who can't even comprehend "wait your turn" and would have to be stopped technically just to make him shut up, and people are still willing to vote for him. In any case, I think Kamala will eat him up, but Trump still has a chance to win because he does apply to more rural areas and rural areas wins elections.

Some of the conditions that's been reported to be adopted in the debate have NEVER been used before in any US presidential debate and that's why I think the organizers of the debate are trying their best to favour Kamala Harris as well as help him win the heart of the American electorates through the debate. The good thing for the Republicans about the whole thing is that Donald Trump is one man that's very vocal to express himself anytime, any day and that's why I'm very confident that he'll still come out top at the end of the debate.

[Sandra_hakeem]

Some of the conditions that's been reported to be adopted in the debate have NEVER been used before in any US presidential debate and that's why I think the organizers of the debate are trying their best to favour Kamala Harris as well as help him win the heart of the American electorates through the debate. The good thing for the Republicans about the whole thing is that Donald Trump is one man that's very vocal to express himself anytime, any day and that's why I'm very confident that he'll still come out top at the end of the debate.

Isn't it better if we just tell ourselves the truth? Donald is against LGBTq,... I mean, if he becomes the president, he could pass whatever law he wants -- just like he did the last time and that's fine. The good thing is how intensional Donald was in his first sitting; let's look at the rate of insurgencies in the US today. Is it comparable to the last 5 years ? What does the chart look like??

[Wakate]

Some of the conditions that's been reported to be adopted in the debate have NEVER been used before in any US presidential debate and that's why I think the organizers of the debate are trying their best to favour Kamala Harris as well as help him win the heart of the American electorates through the debate. The good thing for the Republicans about the whole thing is that Donald Trump is one man that's very vocal to express himself anytime, any day and that's why I'm very confident that he'll still come out top at the end of the debate.

Isn't it better if we just tell ourselves the truth? Donald is against LGBTq,... I mean, if he becomes the president, he could pass whatever law he wants -- just like he did the last time and that's fine. The good thing is how intensional Donald was in his first sitting; let's look at the rate of insurgencies in the US today. Is it comparable to the last 5 years ? What does the chart look like??

There is no need for us to look at the charts and compare it from when Trump was the president and now that things are looking like everything is crumbling. Trump tried his possible best to end LGBT but it never worked because it has already been in the constitution and it would be quite difficult to amend at this stage. Trump really did wonderful things when he was the president but the problem was that he was been too strict and doesn't want to focus on some aspects that do not need much deliberation. Whosoever wins could do wonderfully than what we are seeing now but I think Harris has some secrets to unveil which would make a lot of sense before the election.

[darkangel11]

I wonder where you are getting your information from, Harris is doing well in her campaign and the automatic endorsement by Biden, Obama, Clinton and others has helped her to be almost unanimously nominated by the Democratic party

Don't forget Putin's support
Frankly speaking, being endorsed by a president who was removed from the campaign because he wasn't doing well and another that was impeached isn't something she should brag about.
Also, the way she did not participate in the primaries, but still got to participate in the general election is a bit shady.

[Franctoshi]

The debate will be the one that changes the odds and the polls a lot. It's in 10th I think, not entirely sure but an article I just saw says 10th so I assume it's then. This time, mics will be turned off, and that means people can't interrupt each other, which we know Trump likes to do.

That's the reason why the mics will be turned off when it is not their turn, think about how much of a dick you have to be that they would have to turn your mic off when it is not your turn, this is a dude who can't even comprehend "wait your turn" and would have to be stopped technically just to make him shut up, and people are still willing to vote for him. In any case, I think Kamala will eat him up, but Trump still has a chance to win because he does apply to more rural areas and rural areas wins elections.

Some of the conditions that's been reported to be adopted in the debate have NEVER been used before in any US presidential debate and that's why I think the organizers of the debate are trying their best to favour Kamala Harris as well as help him win the heart of the American electorates through the debate. The good thing for the Republicans about the whole thing is that Donald Trump is one man that's very vocal to express himself anytime, any day and that's why I'm very confident that he'll still come out top at the end of the debate.

The debate is not just happening between Kamala Harris and a candidate that hasn't been a president before but the immidiate past president of the united States who knows what it takes to be a President, a business tycoon and a politician, Donald Trump is someone you can't match words with, so no matter how they want to twist it all and make it more favorable for Kamala Harris to win, Trump knows what he can say that the American people wants their incoming president to do for them.  So I'm very confident about Trump wining this very debate, and even though he didn't win ,this doesn't totally would determine who becomes the next president of the united States.

[TwitchySeal]

I wonder where you are getting your information from, Harris is doing well in her campaign and the automatic endorsement by Biden, Obama, Clinton and others has helped her to be almost unanimously nominated by the Democratic party

Don't forget Putin's support
Frankly speaking, being endorsed by a president who was removed from the campaign because he wasn't doing well and another that was impeached isn't something she should brag about.
Also, the way she did not participate in the primaries, but still got to participate in the general election is a bit shady.

So you have either been trolled by Putin or you are trolling others on Putins behalf.

Think about that.

Is it in response to half of the "very best people" that worked in Trumps White House have actually endorsed Kamala?

[jossiel]

That was before but long time ago Joe Biden has already conceded this race and gave up his candidacy already.

He has shown his support to Kamala Harris. So, this presidential election is now about Kamala Harris and Donald Trump although there are still a lot of names in there.

More precisely, during Joe Biden's term, he seemed to have failed to gain the trust of the people and the benefits behind him, his support was only at a relative level, instead of fiercely competing with strong opponents, he chose the wise strategy of supporting someone with the ability. And of course with two names Trump and Kamala Harris, it is difficult for him to side with his old opponent. Another problem is that Donald Trump will often be very strong in supporting and attracting voters, but the results in return are often not favorable, which makes us doubt that the presidential seat may belong to Kamala Harris.

Because he's seen that he's not going to make it and people don't like the way he has managed the country during his term.

While his Vice President, Kamala Harris, she's more known and might be able to break the votes of the Trump voters and could trust her. At first she doesn't seen to be able to do that but right now, looks like she's on the right track.

[alani123]

It's interesting how much is at stake here for Trump and the republican party if he loses the election.
Much of his property has been devalued, seized or under receivership in indictments or in events relating to his presidency and the aftermath.

And his new company, Truth Social, will likely go bankrupt shortly after Trump loses, of he loses, because all of its momentum is based on Trump's potential to become president. It's actually losing a lot of money and if it can't issue bonds it won't be able to rebound.

The republican party will have a very hard time getting rid of MAGA no matter how trump-centeic it was as a movement. Plus the wave of radicalization makes it look like there's no turning back for them.

[bbc.reporter]

I dont want and like to turn into direct politics discussion, but from the moment it was decided to replace Joe Bined with Kamala Harris, I think it was clear that Trump is going to win this race. You cant just promote Biden all the time, and on the finish line replace him. Not an expert in US history, but I dont remember that a woman was ever a president of the US. Again a signal for Trump. I dont know if it is possible to cheat during election, but it is clear for me that it is going to be Trump. However, I am not going to bet on US or any president election. I dont want to "earn" or peoples future. Who know what Trump second presidentship would be. What if his first decree would be a war against everyone, and I have earned with winning bet selecting him. That is not for me.

It appeared to be very clear that Trump will win the presidential election on November after the assassination  attempt on him by someone's Manchurian Candidate. However, after Biden was replaced by Kamala, the ratings of Trump has lowered to 50%. I was a very headshaking change and it would not be shocking if this is a manipulation, trending tactic by the administration. They have and control the machinery to make something like this very much possible.

Trump is leading against Kamala with only 8% on Polymarket.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1725946334167

[Haunebu]

It's interesting how much is at stake here for Trump and the republican party if he loses the election.
Much of his property has been devalued, seized or under receivership in indictments or in events relating to his presidency and the aftermath.

Yeah. It's all or nothing for him and his supporters at this stage. The dude also has to worry about the pending cases against him which could dent his chances of becoming the next president even more. Harris has way more funds in comparison.

Trump is leading against Kamala with only 8% on Polymarket.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1725946334167

These surveys, market polls etc are just useful for reference and never tell the complete story which is why depending on them completely is downright silly.

[Webetcoins]

I dont want and like to turn into direct politics discussion, but from the moment it was decided to replace Joe Bined with Kamala Harris, I think it was clear that Trump is going to win this race.

You couldn't be more wrong. On the contrary, Trump and his camp went haywire when Biden was replaced with Harris since they were not prepared for it thanks to which Harris actually has a decent chance of winning.

Democrats want to sell that since they know they are way behind Trumps influence and they want people think that if they going to vote for Harris then people will be part of historic changes in US.

Silly reasoning. If Trump's influence was as good as you stated, he would have won the 2nd term instead of losing to Biden. The dude is only back in contention thanks to Biden messing up badly.

Republicans would say they would win over Biden, they say they would win over Kamala, it's not really about anything reasonable for them, it's about the fact that in their eye Trump is god-like and if they end up saying even a slight doubt, it would go all haywire.

It's clear that Kamala got ahead at the polls and still ahead right now, which goes to show you that she is a better candidate than Biden, but that is not because people love Kamala, we do not care, no democrat ever cares, it's not about that at all, if other side had someone like Mitt Romney or whatever, democrats wouldn't even go out to vote that much, at least ten million voters would stay at home, only reason why they would vote now, is not kamala, it is to make sure trump doesn't win.

That's an important difference and if they can do what they achieve, then Trump will never be candidate again, and then republicans can pick someone decent and they can win the next one much easier. If they pick some conservative traditional republican, in 2028 I can sense that we can actually break over 310 barrier in electoral voting, and we could see Republicans beat democrats in popular voting for the first time in over twenty years too. Just need someone decent and not trump.

[TopTort777]

I dont want and like to turn into direct politics discussion, but from the moment it was decided to replace Joe Bined with Kamala Harris, I think it was clear that Trump is going to win this race. You cant just promote Biden all the time, and on the finish line replace him. Not an expert in US history, but I dont remember that a woman was ever a president of the US. Again a signal for Trump. I dont know if it is possible to cheat during election, but it is clear for me that it is going to be Trump. However, I am not going to bet on US or any president election. I dont want to "earn" or peoples future. Who know what Trump second presidentship would be. What if his first decree would be a war against everyone, and I have earned with winning bet selecting him. That is not for me.

There hasn't been a woman president in the US, so if Harris wins, it would be historic.

For the same reason I think it's quite difficult that a woman would become president in the US, but also Trump has a lot of people against him.

But also a lot of people support Trump.

It's going to be quite difficult to predict I think.

She is first female vice-president so far. That already a huge achievement. I think such thing might work well. First female vice-president turns first female president. But isnt it enough for a start to be first female vice-president? I like her presidential program - she promises to "improve financial situation of a country" or something like that. So her fellow democratic party creates problems, and she as a democrat promises to fix them Should they start with not creating problem at all?

How often does vice-presidents become presidents in general ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States actually quite often. There is a possibility, that next time Harris would become a president, but this time it is going to be Trump.

[viljy]

but this time it is going to be Trump.

How can you be so sure? If it's just an intuition, or a preference, then there's no question. Because based on the current state of affairs, it is impossible to confidently name a winner. Too many multidirectional factors can affect the outcome of an election. I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.

[nullama]

~snip~
How can you be so sure? If it's just an intuition, or a preference, then there's no question. Because based on the current state of affairs, it is impossible to confidently name a winner. Too many multidirectional factors can affect the outcome of an election. I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.

Yeah, I think the US election is still a very close race.

It could go either way really, specially given how the US voting system works. Small differences in one state can be propagated into the electoral votes and then you have a winner with less than 50% of the total votes.

Also you have the issue of people not going to vote, but I guess a lot of people will vote in this election.

I guess we're going to have to wait and see what happens.

[Haunebu]

How often does vice-presidents become presidents in general ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States actually quite often. There is a possibility, that next time Harris would become a president, but this time it is going to be Trump.

How often does a president who lost his reelection campaign get elected again ie., non-consecutive terms? Only one dude achieved that way back in the 19th century. Statistics aren't everything basically.

Also you have the issue of people not going to vote, but I guess a lot of people will vote in this election.

Yeah. This is a bigger issue than we think. So many voters skip elections completely due to various reasons which is why luck matters a lot in these sort of elections.