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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1979172 times)
NewLiberty
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November 12, 2014, 01:20:30 PM
 #16601

I think moving all in wouldn't be the optimal play for me.
If there is another bubble, then afterwards you could be considered "all in" because that 50% will be closer to 90%.

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justusranvier
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November 12, 2014, 01:35:19 PM
 #16602

You might be right, but what if you're not? If you put in a moderate amount and shit hits the fan, you'll be well of. If it doesn't you're also well off since you risked a moderate amount. You can 'go all in' now and be VERY well off, but it'll be shit when either bitcoin fails, the system gets an sublime intervention or for w/e reason the projected scenario doesn't play out. Wiping out you're entire savings now will have a large impact later in life (power of compounding). So since i'm advising people, I advise a reasonably safe move. If people can/want to risk more, they should imo (which is what I tell them then). I'm talking here about people with more than 5-10k savings, if you've less than that, I agree with you that the % should be higher.

To clarify, I'm using myself as a base scenario. i'm mid/end 20's and have build up some savings (mid 5 fig's) over the last years with a well paid job, poker and bitcoin (i've been a buyer since feb '13). I have no debt (no mortgage, not buying in this market).  I own gold/silver (phys) some stocks (which i've been liquidating the last months) some currency (home/foreign) and a lot of crypto. I'd say the ratio's are 15%, 10%, 25% 50%. This is a portfolio i'm very comfortable with at the moment. To be fair, I do have a healthy (above average) appetite for risk. For people in a similair situation (steady influx of money/time horizon/savings/etc) I feel comfortable advising 5-10% for the reasons stated above. More if they are more like me riskwise.

I think moving all in wouldn't be the optimal play for me.
I'm talking about people who have the ability and opportunity to develop useful skills, who are early in their career.

The most important part of what I suggested was the actions wherein they acquire and hone useful skills.

If somebody at age 25 gets unlucky with asset allocation but has marketable skills it's no big deal because they can just earn it back again.

For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.
Bagatell
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November 12, 2014, 01:59:13 PM
 #16603

For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.

It used to be "never trust anyone over thirty". You yunguns must be getting soft.
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 03:07:39 PM
 #16604

this looks dangerous as hell.  it's called a Megaphone. waddaya think Sidhuajag?

cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 03:09:06 PM
 #16605

For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.

dude, what am i?  chopped liver?
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 03:10:12 PM
 #16606

I think moving all in wouldn't be the optimal play for me.
If there is another bubble, then afterwards you could be considered "all in" because that 50% will be closer to 90%.

that's exactly what has happened to alot of Bitcoiners.
justusranvier
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November 12, 2014, 03:11:25 PM
 #16607

what am i?
Old enough to either already have a clue, or be too late to save.

Fortunately you picked the former category.
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 03:18:27 PM
 #16608

what am i?
Old enough to either already have a clue, or be too late to save.

Fortunately you picked the former category.

it's a bitchin' position to be in, that's for sure.  unless someone comes along and changes the rules...
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 03:21:01 PM
 #16609

right up the ass, baby.  oh, it feels so good!:

tvbcof
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November 12, 2014, 03:33:51 PM
 #16610

...
For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.

Beautiful troll; quite effective.  Lots of us old codgers around I suppose.

You may or may not have notice who seems to be running the show in most countries.

It is said that "Old age and treachery beats youth and skill every time." Smiley


nanobrain
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November 12, 2014, 04:09:35 PM
 #16611

...
For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.

Beautiful troll; quite effective.  Lots of us old codgers around I suppose.

You may or may not have notice who seems to be running the show in most countries.

It is said that "Old age and treachery beats youth and skill every time." Smiley



Indeed.

It's not trolling though; its just the arrogance of youth, Texan style.

nothing to see here
nanobrain
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November 12, 2014, 04:13:17 PM
 #16612


For anyone over 40 I have no advice

I suspect no-one over 40 would want the advice of anyone who regularly expresses such certainty in their opinions or has such a skewed view of the world. Smiley

nothing to see here
tvbcof
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November 12, 2014, 04:29:41 PM
 #16613


For anyone over 40 I have no advice

I suspect no-one over 40 would want the advice of anyone who regularly expresses such certainty in their opinions or has such a skewed view of the world. Smiley


At around age 45-ish one starts to understands the reaction observed of one's elders over the years when they've listen politely to one's assertions about how the world works.

Edit:  Said oldsters doubtless remember the times when they were jackasses as well.


cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 04:41:41 PM
 #16614


For anyone over 40 I have no advice

I suspect no-one over 40 would want the advice of anyone who regularly expresses such certainty in their opinions or has such a skewed view of the world. Smiley


At around age 45-ish one starts to understands the reaction observed of one's elders over the years when they've listen politely to one's assertions about how the world works.

Edit:  Said oldsters doubtless remember the times when they were jackasses as well.



from one old codger to another socialist old codger:  in your case, he's right.
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 04:55:27 PM
 #16615

Gold, here we come.
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 05:06:59 PM
 #16616

the advent of comet gold mining has arrived!

https://twitter.com/esaoperations/status/532568050487558144
justusranvier
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November 12, 2014, 05:31:24 PM
 #16617

You may or may not have notice who seems to be running the show in most countries.

It is said that "Old age and treachery beats youth and skill every time." Smiley
Maybe you missed this, but we're doing cryptography here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptography

Quote
Cryptography (or cryptology; from Greek κρυπτός kryptós, "hidden, secret"; and γράφειν graphein, "writing", or -λογία -logia, "study", respectively)[1] is the practice and study of techniques for secure communication in the presence of third parties (called adversaries).[2] More generally, it is about constructing and analyzing protocols that overcome the influence of adversaries[3] and that are related to various aspects in information security such as data confidentiality, data integrity, authentication, and non-repudiation.[4] Modern cryptography intersects the disciplines of mathematics, computer science, and electrical engineering.

It's an entire field dedicated toward using math to reduce the ability of people like you to "run the show."
tvbcof
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November 12, 2014, 05:37:39 PM
 #16618


For anyone over 40 I have no advice

I suspect no-one over 40 would want the advice of anyone who regularly expresses such certainty in their opinions or has such a skewed view of the world. Smiley


At around age 45-ish one starts to understands the reaction observed of one's elders over the years when they've listen politely to one's assertions about how the world works.

Edit:  Said oldsters doubtless remember the times when they were jackasses as well.


from one old codger to another socialist old codger:  in your case, he's right.

No doubt about that.  I've been opinionated and prone to espouse on my opinions all my life.  I've also done various 180 degree about faces on a variety of issues.  A majority have been in the same general alignment through most of my life.

With Bitcoin I early on did a total 180 on transaction fees.  Initially I was negative about them at all.  When I considered things more and contemplated the system dynamics in a more holistic manner I changed my mind completely and started paying a rate that often runs into the $10/tx range.  Both arguments appear in the troll-talk archives.


cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 05:37:53 PM
 #16619

You may or may not have notice who seems to be running the show in most countries.

It is said that "Old age and treachery beats youth and skill every time." Smiley
Maybe you missed this, but we're doing cryptography here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptography

Quote
Cryptography (or cryptology; from Greek κρυπτός kryptós, "hidden, secret"; and γράφειν graphein, "writing", or -λογία -logia, "study", respectively)[1] is the practice and study of techniques for secure communication in the presence of third parties (called adversaries).[2] More generally, it is about constructing and analyzing protocols that overcome the influence of adversaries[3] and that are related to various aspects in information security such as data confidentiality, data integrity, authentication, and non-repudiation.[4] Modern cryptography intersects the disciplines of mathematics, computer science, and electrical engineering.

It's an entire field dedicated toward using math to reduce the ability of people like you to "run the show."

ouch
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 05:41:38 PM
 #16620

Boom...

...i mean KaBoom.
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