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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1920920 times)
justusranvier
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November 12, 2014, 12:04:28 PM
 #16621

Also makes me think of one of cypher's earlier tweets:
"its also the way out for the Millennials to escape the debt hole we Boomers r forcing upon them."

I think this is key. I'm actively advocating such an escape in my social circles (being one). Not many of us (understatement) are thinking/reading up about these issues, let alone take precautions. A 5-10% bet of your networth would set you and others right if the time would ever come. If 'that time' doesn't come, there's still a great chance that your holdings have increased in value. Potential downside is limited to the amount you're willing to put in, upside is unkonwn. Asymmetrical as f***. Just makes so much sense to me.
People in the earliest stages of their lives should not be thinking in terms of "5%-10% of net worth," because they probably don't have any yet.

Millennials should be going into full exit mode: move what savings they out of fiat and into Bitcoin, and start building work experience/ businesses in the Bitcoin economy.

It's not like anything of the present system is going to be left by the time they get to retirement age, so they'd do well to escape from it as rapidly as possible.

Kinda sucks for the Boomers who aren't going to find another generation to hold the bag for them, but being old means they had all their lives to prepare for the end of an unsustainable system.
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NewLiberty
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November 12, 2014, 01:12:59 PM
 #16622

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=259165&sn=Detail

This article exposes the dirty little secret of why banks can not afford to let Bitcoin succeed without them.
They either need to kill it or be in on it.
The article is about the effects of gold backwardation.  It goes into some detail on the mechanisms.
From the point of view of banks vis a vis Bitcoin: Since there aren't these sorts of derivative plays (like Winklevoss ETP) available to banks currently, they either need to create them in order to play, or find a new way to be guaranteed to make money.


tl;dr?
(1) Basically, there exists a gold arbitrage for the bullion banks.
(2) During periods of high physical gold demand (backwardation) – the arbitrage creates ever more “paper gold"
(3) But the longer the backwardation continues, the more the market gets drained of physical gold and filled up with paper gold.
(4) This can continue for a few years, but eventually the market becomes too unstable and the price soars looking for some physical gold.
(5) But if physical gold never returns to the market, regardless of the price, it means that confidence has been lost in fiat currency - and the dollar collapses.
(6) The bullion banks can delay this outcome, but they cannot stop it.

This happened in the Nixon years, which led to stagflation.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
Bassica
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November 12, 2014, 01:15:31 PM
 #16623

Also makes me think of one of cypher's earlier tweets:
"its also the way out for the Millennials to escape the debt hole we Boomers r forcing upon them."

I think this is key. I'm actively advocating such an escape in my social circles (being one). Not many of us (understatement) are thinking/reading up about these issues, let alone take precautions. A 5-10% bet of your networth would set you and others right if the time would ever come. If 'that time' doesn't come, there's still a great chance that your holdings have increased in value. Potential downside is limited to the amount you're willing to put in, upside is unkonwn. Asymmetrical as f***. Just makes so much sense to me.
People in the earliest stages of their lives should not be thinking in terms of "5%-10% of net worth," because they probably don't have any yet.

Millennials should be going into full exit mode: move what savings they out of fiat and into Bitcoin, and start building work experience/ businesses in the Bitcoin economy.

It's not like anything of the present system is going to be left by the time they get to retirement age, so they'd do well to escape from it as rapidly as possible.

Kinda sucks for the Boomers who aren't going to find another generation to hold the bag for them, but being old means they had all their lives to prepare for the end of an unsustainable system.


You might be right, but what if you're not? If you put in a moderate amount and shit hits the fan, you'll be well of. If it doesn't you're also well off since you risked a moderate amount. You can 'go all in' now and be VERY well off, but it'll be shit when either bitcoin fails, the system gets an sublime intervention or for w/e reason the projected scenario doesn't play out. Wiping out you're entire savings now will have a large impact later in life (power of compounding). So since i'm advising people, I advise a reasonably safe move. If people can/want to risk more, they should imo (which is what I tell them then). I'm talking here about people with more than 5-10k savings, if you've less than that, I agree with you that the % should be higher.

To clarify, I'm using myself as a base scenario. i'm mid/end 20's and have build up some savings (mid 5 fig's) over the last years with a well paid job, poker and bitcoin (i've been a buyer since feb '13). I have no debt (no mortgage, not buying in this market).  I own gold/silver (phys) some stocks (which i've been liquidating the last months) some currency (home/foreign) and a lot of crypto. I'd say the ratio's are 15%, 10%, 25% 50%. This is a portfolio i'm very comfortable with at the moment. To be fair, I do have a healthy (above average) appetite for risk. For people in a similair situation (steady influx of money/time horizon/savings/etc) I feel comfortable advising 5-10% for the reasons stated above. More if they are more like me riskwise.

I think moving all in wouldn't be the optimal play for me.

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November 12, 2014, 01:20:30 PM
 #16624

I think moving all in wouldn't be the optimal play for me.
If there is another bubble, then afterwards you could be considered "all in" because that 50% will be closer to 90%.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
justusranvier
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November 12, 2014, 01:35:19 PM
 #16625

You might be right, but what if you're not? If you put in a moderate amount and shit hits the fan, you'll be well of. If it doesn't you're also well off since you risked a moderate amount. You can 'go all in' now and be VERY well off, but it'll be shit when either bitcoin fails, the system gets an sublime intervention or for w/e reason the projected scenario doesn't play out. Wiping out you're entire savings now will have a large impact later in life (power of compounding). So since i'm advising people, I advise a reasonably safe move. If people can/want to risk more, they should imo (which is what I tell them then). I'm talking here about people with more than 5-10k savings, if you've less than that, I agree with you that the % should be higher.

To clarify, I'm using myself as a base scenario. i'm mid/end 20's and have build up some savings (mid 5 fig's) over the last years with a well paid job, poker and bitcoin (i've been a buyer since feb '13). I have no debt (no mortgage, not buying in this market).  I own gold/silver (phys) some stocks (which i've been liquidating the last months) some currency (home/foreign) and a lot of crypto. I'd say the ratio's are 15%, 10%, 25% 50%. This is a portfolio i'm very comfortable with at the moment. To be fair, I do have a healthy (above average) appetite for risk. For people in a similair situation (steady influx of money/time horizon/savings/etc) I feel comfortable advising 5-10% for the reasons stated above. More if they are more like me riskwise.

I think moving all in wouldn't be the optimal play for me.
I'm talking about people who have the ability and opportunity to develop useful skills, who are early in their career.

The most important part of what I suggested was the actions wherein they acquire and hone useful skills.

If somebody at age 25 gets unlucky with asset allocation but has marketable skills it's no big deal because they can just earn it back again.

For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.
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November 12, 2014, 01:59:13 PM
 #16626

For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.

It used to be "never trust anyone over thirty". You yunguns must be getting soft.
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 03:07:39 PM
 #16627

this looks dangerous as hell.  it's called a Megaphone. waddaya think Sidhuajag?

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November 12, 2014, 03:09:06 PM
 #16628

For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.

dude, what am i?  chopped liver?
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 03:10:12 PM
 #16629

I think moving all in wouldn't be the optimal play for me.
If there is another bubble, then afterwards you could be considered "all in" because that 50% will be closer to 90%.

that's exactly what has happened to alot of Bitcoiners.
justusranvier
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November 12, 2014, 03:11:25 PM
 #16630

what am i?
Old enough to either already have a clue, or be too late to save.

Fortunately you picked the former category.
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November 12, 2014, 03:18:27 PM
 #16631

what am i?
Old enough to either already have a clue, or be too late to save.

Fortunately you picked the former category.

it's a bitchin' position to be in, that's for sure.  unless someone comes along and changes the rules...
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November 12, 2014, 03:21:01 PM
 #16632

right up the ass, baby.  oh, it feels so good!:

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November 12, 2014, 03:33:51 PM
 #16633

...
For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.

Beautiful troll; quite effective.  Lots of us old codgers around I suppose.

You may or may not have notice who seems to be running the show in most countries.

It is said that "Old age and treachery beats youth and skill every time." Smiley


nanobrain
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November 12, 2014, 04:09:35 PM
 #16634

...
For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.

Beautiful troll; quite effective.  Lots of us old codgers around I suppose.

You may or may not have notice who seems to be running the show in most countries.

It is said that "Old age and treachery beats youth and skill every time." Smiley



Indeed.

It's not trolling though; its just the arrogance of youth, Texan style.

nothing to see here
nanobrain
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November 12, 2014, 04:13:17 PM
 #16635


For anyone over 40 I have no advice

I suspect no-one over 40 would want the advice of anyone who regularly expresses such certainty in their opinions or has such a skewed view of the world. Smiley

nothing to see here
tvbcof
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November 12, 2014, 04:29:41 PM
 #16636


For anyone over 40 I have no advice

I suspect no-one over 40 would want the advice of anyone who regularly expresses such certainty in their opinions or has such a skewed view of the world. Smiley


At around age 45-ish one starts to understands the reaction observed of one's elders over the years when they've listen politely to one's assertions about how the world works.

Edit:  Said oldsters doubtless remember the times when they were jackasses as well.


cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 04:41:41 PM
 #16637


For anyone over 40 I have no advice

I suspect no-one over 40 would want the advice of anyone who regularly expresses such certainty in their opinions or has such a skewed view of the world. Smiley


At around age 45-ish one starts to understands the reaction observed of one's elders over the years when they've listen politely to one's assertions about how the world works.

Edit:  Said oldsters doubtless remember the times when they were jackasses as well.



from one old codger to another socialist old codger:  in your case, he's right.
cypherdoc
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November 12, 2014, 04:55:27 PM
 #16638

Gold, here we come.
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November 12, 2014, 05:06:59 PM
 #16639

the advent of comet gold mining has arrived!

https://twitter.com/esaoperations/status/532568050487558144
justusranvier
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November 12, 2014, 05:31:24 PM
 #16640

You may or may not have notice who seems to be running the show in most countries.

It is said that "Old age and treachery beats youth and skill every time." Smiley
Maybe you missed this, but we're doing cryptography here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptography

Quote
Cryptography (or cryptology; from Greek κρυπτός kryptós, "hidden, secret"; and γράφειν graphein, "writing", or -λογία -logia, "study", respectively)[1] is the practice and study of techniques for secure communication in the presence of third parties (called adversaries).[2] More generally, it is about constructing and analyzing protocols that overcome the influence of adversaries[3] and that are related to various aspects in information security such as data confidentiality, data integrity, authentication, and non-repudiation.[4] Modern cryptography intersects the disciplines of mathematics, computer science, and electrical engineering.

It's an entire field dedicated toward using math to reduce the ability of people like you to "run the show."
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