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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1955982 times)
shmadz
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May 21, 2015, 05:31:24 AM
 #24701

As a guy that's been mining for a few years now, I can get behind the idea of mining space heaters. I even wanted to place a small mining farm in the furnace room and then control the vents with individual thermostats to distribute the heat, dumping excess heat as needed.

But mining on a phone, it's just not reasonable. You could put the same chip on a USB stick and it would perform better.

Serious mining makes for some serious heat. If I'm 21 the household heating market is where I would target.



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May 21, 2015, 05:51:42 AM
 #24702

The price of mining a bitcoin tends to approach the price of a bitcoin, so the question is rather is 21's approach equal to or better than large scale mining.

"Tends to approach" is vague.

In the short term, the marginal cost of mining almost exactly equals the price of a Bitcoin (excluding, possibly, some short transition periods when the price of a Bitcoin is just so high and/or increasing so fast that it is hard to catch it), but if you are below marginal cost, then you are more efficient than the marginal miner and you make a operating profit, which may or may not cover your investment. In the long term, that's the time horizon when investments pay off, or don't. Nothing lasts forever.


No, tend to approach is the correct term. There cost will never exactly reflect the price, due to speculative errors from the miners when they decide to expand or contract, therefore the cost will be different also between miners. So again, can the 21's plan for mining compete with large scale mining? Small scale mining can be and is continually tested, what they bring to the table is a new chip. So can the new chip revive small scale mining?


Edit: You can never know in advance, but I would guess that if the chip is good in a random small scale device, it is even better if you pack a few hundred in a dedicated device with proportionally designed power supply, fans the rest of the stuff that is needed. Is it possible to construct a chip that is better than current mining, and at the same time can not be used large scale?

You can not rely on persons with experience in funding. Stranger projects have been started, a company with million dollar donut cars, selling for 100K per car and losing 900K per car comes to mind.


from what i've read, 21 is not new to mining.  apparently they've been at it for at least 2 yrs with pretty impressive BTC yields.  can't remember the specifics.

with that experience, they've designed a new chip for small devices like smartphones.  you'd think they've done extensive R&D before taking this leap.

Again, trust in the people. I am not so sure, stupid projects are suggested all the time. If it is going to work, there has to be something in there that is not yet revealed.

Erdogan
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May 21, 2015, 05:54:56 AM
 #24703

I obviously don't agree to that, it has to be economically viable to exist.

No, no no. A million times no.

e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com

Quote
Are you suggesting a big con?

It could be a good business plan, or a mistake, or a con. You're excluding the middle.


I hate selective quoting. The con part, that is viable only on a small scale.

Okay, I didn't follow it. What's the con?


I was too quick, your comments were ok, I deleted my post, but too late.

Somebody suggest that people would buy these phones for extra, use extra power, not knowing they earned money for the company only. That a con.

shmadz
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May 21, 2015, 06:13:45 AM
 #24704

I obviously don't agree to that, it has to be economically viable to exist.

No, no no. A million times no.

e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com

Quote
Are you suggesting a big con?

It could be a good business plan, or a mistake, or a con. You're excluding the middle.


I hate selective quoting. The con part, that is viable only on a small scale.

Okay, I didn't follow it. What's the con?


I was too quick, your comments were ok, I deleted my post, but too late.

Somebody suggest that people would buy these phones for extra, use extra power, not knowing they earned money for the company only. That a con.


Ok, I'll try again... why put that chip in the phone if you could just include it in the charger cable? Or charging pad for wireless charging?

Battery life, size, weight, efficiency are all competing qualities for phones and putting a bitcoin miner in your phone is not going to make it more competitive.

(Secure enclave type wallet on the other hand = no brainer)

"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
dropt
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May 21, 2015, 06:29:27 AM
 #24705

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak
Erdogan
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May 21, 2015, 06:49:12 AM
 #24706

I obviously don't agree to that, it has to be economically viable to exist.

No, no no. A million times no.

e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com

Quote
Are you suggesting a big con?

It could be a good business plan, or a mistake, or a con. You're excluding the middle.


I hate selective quoting. The con part, that is viable only on a small scale.

Okay, I didn't follow it. What's the con?


I was too quick, your comments were ok, I deleted my post, but too late.

Somebody suggest that people would buy these phones for extra, use extra power, not knowing they earned money for the company only. That a con.


Ok, I'll try again... why put that chip in the phone if you could just include it in the charger cable? Or charging pad for wireless charging?

Battery life, size, weight, efficiency are all competing qualities for phones and putting a bitcoin miner in your phone is not going to make it more competitive.

(Secure enclave type wallet on the other hand = no brainer)

Exactly, it is going to be less competitive.

shmadz
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May 21, 2015, 07:35:10 AM
 #24707

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak

Thank you. Very interesting. Cool stuff. But...

It still sounds like just processing and relaying transactions. I don't see how these devices would ever find a block, or ever get paid out even if they did.

Doesn't sound like the block rewards are the goal though... Very interesting...

Just doesn't sound like mining as I define it.

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stereotype
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May 21, 2015, 07:46:14 AM
 #24708

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak

Thank you. Very interesting. Cool stuff. But...

It still sounds like just processing and relaying transactions. I don't see how these devices would ever find a block, or ever get paid out even if they did.

Doesn't sound like the block rewards are the goal though... Very interesting...
Yep, thats what i got from it.

Sounds like we have fast forwarded to the time we are approaching 21M bitcoins, and this stuff would be the answer to no more block rewards. No?
Zangelbert Bingledack
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May 21, 2015, 07:48:19 AM
 #24709

Anyone want to refute this guy:

http://www.clearmatics.com/2015/05/no-bitcoin-is-not-the-future-of-securities-settlement/

Only sort of valid point he brings up is the Sybil attack.

Oooh, that article is a pretty big bombshell (everyone should read it, just because a lot of people will take it seriously). He brings up some interesting points about a shorting attack, but I don't think his argument properly accounts for how Bitcoin will grow as the threat grows. (A common mistake among Bitcoin critics.) See for example:



One of Gavin's proposals on how to mitigate the threat of a 51% attack: http://gavintech.blogspot.jp/2012/05/neutralizing-51-attack.html But this only mitigates the denial-of-service aspect, not the double-spending aspect that the Clearmatics article refers to. Still it seems like if it's for settlement you can just wait a very long time, like 60 confirmations, or 10 hours, or even something like 3 days as it takes now for securities, but save on all the expenses. What are the odds that a 51% goes undetected for that long? It would totally screw up the ledger even if it were detected and legally rolled back, sure, but the premise is that the motivation of the attacker is to double-spend the security, not just to watch Bitcoin burn.
shmadz
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May 21, 2015, 07:52:42 AM
 #24710

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak

Thank you. Very interesting. Cool stuff. But...

It still sounds like just processing and relaying transactions. I don't see how these devices would ever find a block, or ever get paid out even if they did.

Doesn't sound like the block rewards are the goal though... Very interesting...
Yep, thats what i got from it.

Sounds like we have fast forwarded to the time we are approaching 21M bitcoins, and this stuff would be the answer to no more block rewards. No?

Umm, no. I don't think so. The transaction processing is important for the network to function, but the difficulty of finding a block is the key to the security of the whole system.

I guess maybe a billion devices that do maybe a few mega hash every now and then, when they're plugged in, might find some blocks, but I don't think that's sufficient incentive to ensure security.

"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
Zangelbert Bingledack
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May 21, 2015, 08:05:42 AM
 #24711

Re: 21 and mining pools

The whole reason for mining pools is because miners care about variance. But consumers don't, since they don't even know/care the device is hashing. So have each device be a mining node* (not just a hashing machine) but set up so that, in the event that it wins the block reward lottery, the reward all goes to the manufacturer. Either by some automatic hardcoding or by a contractual agreement. (Alternatively, the reward could be split 75/25 or some other way, if consumers are interested in "playing the lottery," though I'm not sure that would be much fun compared to buying a lottery ticket, because the results take years to come in.)

To manufacturers that are big enough or can afford to wait out the variance, it won't matter much.

The only catch is that each machine doesn't have a replenishing supply of satoshis to use for IoT. Still, preload them with a bit or just send satoshis to them from the manufacturer on a monthly basis - the hard problem of them having a Bitcoin wallet to receive them is already solved anyway.

*Or if a node can't be fit on a phone, have some larger home appliance be the node, everything else just hashes.
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May 21, 2015, 08:06:32 AM
 #24712

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak

Thank you. Very interesting. Cool stuff. But...

It still sounds like just processing and relaying transactions. I don't see how these devices would ever find a block, or ever get paid out even if they did.

Doesn't sound like the block rewards are the goal though... Very interesting...
Yep, thats what i got from it.

Sounds like we have fast forwarded to the time we are approaching 21M bitcoins, and this stuff would be the answer to no more block rewards. No?


That's cleared everything up. IT'S NOT A MINER its a massively distributed transactional processing chip, not for making money.

 RAM for payments.
Bagatell
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May 21, 2015, 11:27:56 AM
 #24713

Quote
I think you are right.. I think that perception of gold … it has fallen out of favour. Sentiment towards gold is as bad as we have seen it since the 2003/2004 period.

Bitcoin is the more sexy thing. People want to talk about bitcoin and anything with “bit” in the name seems to be doing very well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-21/gold-bullion-%E2%80%9Cless-sexy%E2%80%9D-bitcoin-%E2%80%A6-now
rpietila
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May 21, 2015, 01:20:51 PM
 #24714

Quote
I think you are right.. I think that perception of gold … it has fallen out of favour. Sentiment towards gold is as bad as we have seen it since the 2003/2004 period.

Bitcoin is the more sexy thing. People want to talk about bitcoin and anything with “bit” in the name seems to be doing very well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-21/gold-bullion-%E2%80%9Cless-sexy%E2%80%9D-bitcoin-%E2%80%A6-now

As it was in 2003/2004, being totally out of favor, it was a very good time to buy gold, and so it is now.
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May 21, 2015, 01:38:00 PM
 #24715

Quote
I think you are right.. I think that perception of gold … it has fallen out of favour. Sentiment towards gold is as bad as we have seen it since the 2003/2004 period.

Bitcoin is the more sexy thing. People want to talk about bitcoin and anything with “bit” in the name seems to be doing very well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-21/gold-bullion-%E2%80%9Cless-sexy%E2%80%9D-bitcoin-%E2%80%A6-now

As it was in 2003/2004, being totally out of favor, it was a very good time to buy gold, and so it is now.

lol at the last comment..

Bitcoin is NSA is MIT (is NWO). So we're on the winning side here. ^^
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May 21, 2015, 01:44:58 PM
 #24716

As a guy that's been mining for a few years now, I can get behind the idea of mining space heaters. I even wanted to place a small mining farm in the furnace room and then control the vents with individual thermostats to distribute the heat, dumping excess heat as needed.

But mining on a phone, it's just not reasonable. You could put the same chip on a USB stick and it would perform better.

Serious mining makes for some serious heat. If I'm 21 the household heating market is where I would target.

Water heating, Electric blankets, some cooking, pool heating, greenhouses maybe,

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May 21, 2015, 03:00:08 PM
 #24717

As a guy that's been mining for a few years now, I can get behind the idea of mining space heaters. I even wanted to place a small mining farm in the furnace room and then control the vents with individual thermostats to distribute the heat, dumping excess heat as needed.

But mining on a phone, it's just not reasonable. You could put the same chip on a USB stick and it would perform better.

Serious mining makes for some serious heat. If I'm 21 the household heating market is where I would target.

Water heating, Electric blankets, some cooking, pool heating, greenhouses maybe,

sure, they will go after those mkts too.  but, imo, smartphones is the Big Kahuna.  that is where the greatest money to be had lies.

remember, those OEM's that understand Bitcoin want to grab the majority of mkt share in developing nations by offering severe discounts to new previously unbanked customers.  get the phone into their hands, lock them in, and worry about significant monetization later.  the only way to do this, in the 21 model of mining chips, is to make the smartphones hash as a payback.  whether mining "on it's own" will be profitable or not, it's hard to tell.  but it could be with enough efficiency in the chip, assuming customers will attempt to pass on charging costs to "others", and coordinating the hashing power to generate blocks.  either way, i don't think that's the main thrust.  they want to get Satoshi's onto ppl's phones so as to allow the phones to "negotiate" micropayments for all sorts of unimaginable things like parking, fast lanes on hwys, who knows.  the OEM's will have one huge coordinated network to which they can sell all sorts of other products and services as well.  it's also their stated objective to decentralize mining which i think is a worthy goal even if it means they lose money on it.  i've seeing all sorts of crying about "centralization" as a result.  that's ridiculous.  who honestly thinks that bringing on millions, if not billions, of new individual miners into the economy will do that?  do you honestly think the #pools we have now will stay constant and just absorb all this new value?  no way.  as many new pools will crop up as device manufacturers who are willing to do this.  in fact, each OEM should set up their own pool if they want to maximize the gain.  it's easy.  i ran my own sort of pool back when i was pointing 15 or so of my own miners at my stratum solo mining server.  and i'm not a geek or CS.  it was relatively easy.  all sorts of new pool operators are going to come out of the woodwork to take any outsourcing that might occur.  why not?  free money in fees for easy work.  no, we are going to see a mushrooming of the absolute #pools as well as a spreading out of the distribution into a much more decentralized piechart than we've already seen.

there will be also many ppl here in developed nations who will want these mining phones.  esp with all the free electricity we have access to.

if you haven't listened to the audio dropt posted above, you should.  it highlights and expands on many of the things i have been saying about this.
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May 21, 2015, 03:33:36 PM
 #24718


sure, they will go after those mkts too.  but, imo, smartphones is the Big Kahuna.  that is where the greatest money to be had lies.

remember, those OEM's that understand Bitcoin want to grab the majority of mkt share in developing nations by offering severe discounts to new previously unbanked customers.  get the phone into their hands, lock them in, and worry about significant monetization later.  the only way to do this, in the 21 model of mining chips, is to make the smartphones hash as a payback.  whether mining "on it's own" will be profitable or not, it's hard to tell.  but it could be with enough efficiency in the chip, assuming customers will attempt to pass on charging costs to "others", and coordinating the hashing power to generate blocks.  either way, i don't think that's the main thrust.  they want to get Satoshi's onto ppl's phones so as to allow the phones to "negotiate" micropayments for all sorts of unimaginable things like parking, fast lanes on hwys, who knows.  the OEM's will have one huge coordinated network to which they can sell all sorts of other products and services as well.  it's also their stated objective to decentralize mining which i think is a worthy goal even if it means they lose money on it.  i've seeing all sorts of crying about "centralization" as a result.  that's ridiculous.  who honestly thinks that bringing on millions, if not billions, of new individual miners into the economy will do that?  do you honestly think the #pools we have now will stay constant and just absorb all this new value?  no way.  as many new pools will crop up as device manufacturers who are willing to do this.  in fact, each OEM should set up their own pool if they want to maximize the gain.  it's easy.  i ran my own sort of pool back when i was pointing 15 or so of my own miners at my stratum solo mining server.  and i'm not a geek or CS.  it was relatively easy.  all sorts of new pool operators are going to come out of the woodwork to take any outsourcing that might occur.  why not?  free money in fees for easy work.  no, we are going to see a mushrooming of the absolute #pools as well as a spreading out of the distribution into a much more decentralized piechart than we've already seen.

there will be also many ppl here in developed nations who will want these mining phones.  esp with all the free electricity we have access to.

if you haven't listened to the audio dropt posted above, you should.  it highlights and expands on many of the things i have been saying about this.

What are you smoking? You forget what proof of work IS. It's proof of burn of electricity. You cannot earn more in the long term, than the value of the electricity you burned. How much electricity can a smartphone burn?

Charging a smartphone costs a whopping 41 cents PER YEAR.  Nobody gives a shit about those pennies, and even less about 25% of those pennies. Not even the poorest people in Africa, with free power and 10 smartphones, can earn anything close to a worthwhile return.

And that's assuming they have free power! Maybe shop owners NOW don't mind if people charge their phones, but what happens when their shop is filled with freeloaders who will just steal power and not buy anything? Of course they're going to cut off the free power.

I really can't believe people are falling for this bullshit.
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May 21, 2015, 03:44:10 PM
 #24719


sure, they will go after those mkts too.  but, imo, smartphones is the Big Kahuna.  that is where the greatest money to be had lies.

remember, those OEM's that understand Bitcoin want to grab the majority of mkt share in developing nations by offering severe discounts to new previously unbanked customers.  get the phone into their hands, lock them in, and worry about significant monetization later.  the only way to do this, in the 21 model of mining chips, is to make the smartphones hash as a payback.  whether mining "on it's own" will be profitable or not, it's hard to tell.  but it could be with enough efficiency in the chip, assuming customers will attempt to pass on charging costs to "others", and coordinating the hashing power to generate blocks.  either way, i don't think that's the main thrust.  they want to get Satoshi's onto ppl's phones so as to allow the phones to "negotiate" micropayments for all sorts of unimaginable things like parking, fast lanes on hwys, who knows.  the OEM's will have one huge coordinated network to which they can sell all sorts of other products and services as well.  it's also their stated objective to decentralize mining which i think is a worthy goal even if it means they lose money on it.  i've seeing all sorts of crying about "centralization" as a result.  that's ridiculous.  who honestly thinks that bringing on millions, if not billions, of new individual miners into the economy will do that?  do you honestly think the #pools we have now will stay constant and just absorb all this new value?  no way.  as many new pools will crop up as device manufacturers who are willing to do this.  in fact, each OEM should set up their own pool if they want to maximize the gain.  it's easy.  i ran my own sort of pool back when i was pointing 15 or so of my own miners at my stratum solo mining server.  and i'm not a geek or CS.  it was relatively easy.  all sorts of new pool operators are going to come out of the woodwork to take any outsourcing that might occur.  why not?  free money in fees for easy work.  no, we are going to see a mushrooming of the absolute #pools as well as a spreading out of the distribution into a much more decentralized piechart than we've already seen.

there will be also many ppl here in developed nations who will want these mining phones.  esp with all the free electricity we have access to.

if you haven't listened to the audio dropt posted above, you should.  it highlights and expands on many of the things i have been saying about this.

What are you smoking? You forget what proof of work IS. It's proof of burn of electricity. You cannot earn more in the long term, than the value of the electricity you burned. How much electricity can a smartphone burn?

Charging a smartphone costs a whopping 41 cents PER YEAR.  Nobody gives a shit about those pennies, and even less about 25% of those pennies. Not even the poorest people in Africa, with free power and 10 smartphones, can earn anything close to a worthwhile return.

And that's assuming they have free power! Maybe shop owners NOW don't mind if people charge their phones, but what happens when their shop is filled with freeloaders who will just steal power and not buy anything? Of course they're going to cut off the free power.

I really can't believe people are falling for this bullshit.

you sound angry.  what are you, a Monero holder or something?  thinking you're smarter than the wealth of talented minds in the 21 camp is what i'd consider "smoking".  did you read anything i said above?  it could, in fact, be a loss leader.  but getting a majority share of a known burgeoning market that will leapfrog the pc and laptop mkt is hugely valuable.  otoh, if they indeed have worked out the power reqs, which is what i think they mean when they referred to power scaling per device, then it will be an even bigger win.  you can't discount this from a group that includes major industry leaders like Qualcomm & Cisco.  furthermore, advancing the goal of mining decentralization stands to kill a major bear tard argument against Bitcoin in the long run.  it's a worthy goal.  and as far as the mkt responding to "stealing" electricity.  unfortunately for you anti-Bitcoin beartards, the mkt will be slow to respond, as in years.  it always is.  what we're talking about is empowering millions of disadvantaged, yet ambitious, smart individuals who want to make money like you and me.  the whole concept leverages on Bitcoin's Sound Money principles which makes it worthwhile to do whatever it takes to make it work.  you can't stop that and i think 21 understands this principle.  stop your whining.
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May 21, 2015, 03:54:57 PM
 #24720

As a guy that's been mining for a few years now, I can get behind the idea of mining space heaters. I even wanted to place a small mining farm in the furnace room and then control the vents with individual thermostats to distribute the heat, dumping excess heat as needed.

But mining on a phone, it's just not reasonable. You could put the same chip on a USB stick and it would perform better.

Serious mining makes for some serious heat. If I'm 21 the household heating market is where I would target.




good point
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