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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804272 times)
Bagatell
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May 11, 2015, 08:15:05 PM
 #23941

Could this be a hint at 21's real plan? Qualcomm's Neighborhood Small Cells.

Do the details matter? It's the smart grid whatever they call it.
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May 11, 2015, 08:16:23 PM
 #23942

Meni Rosenfeld does something similar to what you're suggesting in his "Analysis of hashrate-based double-spending" paper from December 2012.  I haven't looked into this paper in detail, but this table from Section 6 caught me eye.  It allows you to figure out how many confirmations you should wait depending on how large the transaction is in addition to the attacker's hash rate.



I'd be interested if you can think of ways to extend this work.


That is interesting, thanks. Will have to take a deeper look.

It seems the main remaining variable is what is the current average block reward. I assume this was calculated when rewards were 50BTC and these numbers probably will adjust for a 25BTC/block reward. Adding the average/expected block reward to the mix would enable one to determine how secure a confirmation chain is when block rewards are determined by variable fees & usage, and not a static inflation rate.

If anything, these numbers show that even if an attacker gets into the 30% range, 6 confirmations still secures a significant amount of value. It is only when an attacker approaches 50% that you need longer confirmation chains, but if a determined attacker has the resources to push 40%, they should be able to reach the fabled 50% where it doesn't matter anymore.

that's kind of a weird chart b/c it is denominated in BTC.  even Meni says so:

These values should be taken with a grain of salt, because of the many modeling assumptions made

"value" will vary greatly depending on whether 1BTC buys you a loaf of bread vs an island.

Denominating in BTC probably makes the most sense because: 1) Bitcoin is a closed system and 2) Mining will always tend towards a given equilibrium given the current $/BTC and the current BTCreward/block. To look at it another way, if 1BTC buys you an island you can be sure that there is a massive amount of mining power behind the network and any attacker trying to achieve 20% of the hash rate would need to spend proportionally just as much more effort to reach that 20%.
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May 11, 2015, 08:24:21 PM
 #23943

Peter Todd on scalability:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Td6fwuI7F7U&feature=youtu.be
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May 11, 2015, 08:31:27 PM
 #23944

Felten:

"Mr. President, when it comes to my best assessment of Bitcoin, I'd say that within the next 5 yrs it's quite possible that ................"
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May 11, 2015, 08:43:25 PM
 #23945

Gold is tangible asset. Hard to convince older generation to hold bitcoin.

its impossible  Huh

Earn money when BTC crashes - join BTC-E PAMM
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May 11, 2015, 08:56:58 PM
 #23946

Russian Finance Minister:

Mr. Putin, the Americans have a cryptocurrency expert advising the White House.  

Vladimir Putin:

Is this significant?

Russian Finance Minister:

I'm not sure.  The Ministry's initial research suggested this new currency "bitcoin" was a passing fad--just a harmless toy.  We're no longer convinced that's the case.

Vladimir Putin:

We need to learn more about this "bitcoin" and what might be the plans of the Americans...


Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
TPTB_need_war
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May 11, 2015, 08:59:40 PM
 #23947

you're a whack job.

I hope those readers who lamented that I (even if occasionally) exhibit technical acumen but lack couth, will now understand that rather I am an astute judge of personality and attitude.

Is a character assassination all you have as a retort? Any meritorious points?

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May 11, 2015, 09:08:10 PM
 #23948

Russian Finance Minister:

Mr. Putin, the Americans have a cryptocurrency expert advising the White House.  

Vladimir Putin:

Is this significant?

Russian Finance Minister:

I'm not sure.  The Ministry's initial research suggested this new currency "bitcoin" was a passing fad--just a harmless toy.  We're no longer convinced that's the case.

Vladimir Putin:

We need to learn more about this "bitcoin" and what might be the plans of the Americans...

Peter R, seriously don't you see that Putin vs. Obama is a scripted show for the masses to drool over. The global elite are pulling the strings, the same as they did with the Bolsheviks and then handing power to the oligarchs after the fall of the Communism they created. Some homework for you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sah_Xni-gtg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY

The elite in every country are aligned with the current move towards a global Technocracy.

Being ignorant (Cypherdoc) of these facts doesn't impress me. Not any more than I would be impressed that someone doesn't know all the facts surrounding 9/11 such as the letter from the SEC to Martin Armstrong confirming that all the tapes he had recorded of the malfeasance of the banksters had been held of the WTC and destroyed. Climb down the rabbit hole and study the facts, not the diversionary bullshit about UFOs, etc..

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May 11, 2015, 09:09:51 PM
 #23949

Peter R, seriously don't you see that Putin vs. Obama is a scripted show for the masses to drool over.

I don't know what I think. 

But I'm just having fun here…we need a bitcoin movie!

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
TPTB_need_war
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May 11, 2015, 09:13:20 PM
 #23950

Peter R, seriously don't you see that Putin vs. Obama is a scripted show for the masses to drool over.

I don't know what I think.  

But I'm just having fun here…we need a bitcoin movie!

Okay I understand. Blowing off steam and hacker humor. Apologies.

Edit: it is difficult to form a rational judgement on these matters. I agree. Lacking independently verifiable data. My conclusion is based on a holistic assessment, correlating much information, but it is possible I have a confirmation bias.

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May 11, 2015, 09:53:04 PM
 #23951

Peter R, seriously don't you see that Putin vs. Obama is a scripted show for the masses to drool over.

I don't know what I think.  

But I'm just having fun here…we need a bitcoin movie!

Okay I understand. Blowing off steam and hacker humor. Apologies.

Edit: it is difficult to form a rational judgement on these matters. I agree. Lacking independently verifiable data. My conclusion is based on a holistic assessment, correlating much information, but it is possible I have a confirmation bias.

TPTB, you're my hero! Brothers, listen to this guy! Sisters, bare your breasts and bottoms to this guy!
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May 11, 2015, 09:54:25 PM
 #23952

Gold is tangible asset. Hard to convince older generation to hold bitcoin.

My Dad will be 86 in weeks and he holds some Bitcoin. Yes, I took care of the technical stuff, but he's enthusiastic about it and calls me up to tell me about what he read about it in the Times.  Cheesy

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May 11, 2015, 10:14:52 PM
 #23953

Russian Finance Minister:

Mr. Putin, the Americans have a cryptocurrency expert advising the White House.  

Vladimir Putin:

Is this significant?

Russian Finance Minister:

I'm not sure.  The Ministry's initial research suggested this new currency "bitcoin" was a passing fad--just a harmless toy.  We're no longer convinced that's the case.

Vladimir Putin:

We need to learn more about this "bitcoin" and what might be the plans of the Americans...

Peter R, seriously don't you see that Putin vs. Obama is a scripted show for the masses to drool over. The global elite are pulling the strings, the same as they did with the Bolsheviks and then handing power to the oligarchs after the fall of the Communism they created. Some homework for you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sah_Xni-gtg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY

The elite in every country are aligned with the current move towards a global Technocracy.

Being ignorant (Cypherdoc) of these facts doesn't impress me. Not any more than I would be impressed that someone doesn't know all the facts surrounding 9/11 such as the letter from the SEC to Martin Armstrong confirming that all the tapes he had recorded of the malfeasance of the banksters had been held of the WTC and destroyed. Climb down the rabbit hole and study the facts, not the diversionary bullshit about UFOs, etc..


Secret services everywhere. Putin is one of them, that is.. no secret. Same goes for Gavin tho.
In a world where banks and govs are now waging a war against cash and any other taxfree payment ledger for their QEs and extravagances are starting to thumble, would you reckon they'll leave Bitcoin be that easily? Nope, try again.. Why not just employ/fund/support them bitcoiners wackos lead dev and drive whats left of the whole libertarian technology down with US. Maybe they could catch a branch and enslave you for 50 more years before the final curtain too. But but 7BillionTM people wont use Bitcoin if we dont have infinite rainbow blocksize!  Cry

This is not a Technocracy, but a Secretocracy. Technology is just a tool. OTOH ignorance is bliss.

On a positive note: "The poor in spirit are blessed, for the kingdom of heaven is theirs." - Matthew 5:3


Time to go back to TV or sum neat Hollywood blockbuster folks, you are not helping here. #YOLO

Non inultus premor
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May 11, 2015, 11:50:08 PM
 #23954

Gold is tangible asset. Hard to convince older generation to hold bitcoin.

its impossible  Huh

I resemble that remark.  But then I was convinced long before you'd even heard of it.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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May 12, 2015, 01:30:07 AM
 #23955

I have one question for goldbugs. Have you ever tested your theory that there will always be a physical blackmarket? I mean have ever really tried to sell some of your gold not at a dealer.

France has already cracked down on gold, cash, and crypto. Eventually the governments can force all the dealers to report all transactions and expropriate there.

So where do you sell your gold?

And if we are in a severe economic collapse meaning most of the people are suffering economically, selling some gold to someone who is not an established dealer will risk:

1. It is a setup to mug you.
2. It is a government sting to entrap you.
3. Gossip spreads you have gold and marks you as a man/household to mug frequently.

Fantasizing about barter is loony. The youth will grab crypto and their smartphone before contemplating inefficient barter. Currency is a convenience (over barter). People only move to barter if there is no other choice. Ferfal confirms this from experience in Argentina's collapse.

The powers that be are going to leave Bitcoin pretty much open to nefarious activities until it is already adopted as the alternative to barter during this era of financial repression. Once it is too well established as the only crypto that is widely accepted by merchants, then they can start to use the public ledger to expropriate without fear that we nerds can leave en masse. At that point they can close the loopholes we currently use to obtain anonymity on Bitcoin, such as eliminating all unregistered connections to the internet, e.g. no more unregistered WiFi connections and no more unregistered 3G USB dongles. I have been observing the moves they are making to eliminate these options. For example here in the Philippines where we do have unregistered 3G USB dongles, there is a proposed law to make that illegal and also one of the 3 telcom networks (Globe) recently stopped selling simcards with a preset #. Now you have to registered the sim to get a # (so far the registration is over the wire and no name required yet I see this as preparatory step).

If we are going to develop an alternative to Bitcoin which can be anonymous in spite of anything the authorities can do, then we need to do it now because we have to build use value in that coin before it is too late to.

Monero has onchain mixing which is one aspect of anonymity we need. But it doesn't have IP obfuscation and I assert Tor/I2P are compromised because they are low-latency designs, limited number of onion layer hops, and because they have exit nodes (and some other reasons especially around hidden services). The authorities were able to unmask 100s of Tor hidden services. So once the authorities close the loopholes I mentioned above, then we no longer have a way to propagate data anonymously. This must be fixed pronto. Tor needs to be replaced with something that is more suited to the absolute anonymity we need. All crypto-coins will benefit. Also I relayed to smooth and others that I am concerned about  combinatorial attack on the ring sigs in Monero, because the mixing is not adequately structured. I have not followed all issues since relaying that, so I can't make any definitive statement now (perhaps I raise a non-issue and I have no desire to propagate FUD against Monero so pleeeassseee), but I will dig back into that aspect eventually.

Also afaics (correct me if I am wrong) Monero's primary use case at this time is (as always speculation in an altcoin and) as a decentralized mixer and then back to Bitcoin again. I don't think it has any widespread adoption as a currency.

If we are going to get any use as currency for an altcoin that is not Bitcoin, then it needs to have a compelling currency use case that Bitcoin can't do. I have an idea. I already wrote about it publicly on this forum under one of my other user names. I am not going to mention it again, because I might be moving into implementation mode and I'd prefer it to be somewhat dubious (plausible deniability) as to what if any thing I was a developer on.

I am interested to consider the tradeoffs of working with Monero but afaik their business model was not to retain any coins to incentivize developers. Their business model appears to me be Communist. They wanted in their marketing to state that it is the most fair coin because there is no premine nor any ongoing minting to pay developers. So I assume the devs either bought the coin out of their own savings (and suffered for it so far) or they had the early dibs on mining (for example I've read that the guy who optimized the PoW hash code apparently netted himself $100,000 due to having an advantage on mining for a short period of time?). How does someone work with Monero and earn a good ROI?

I'd prefer to be upfront and transparent about the funding of the creators and ongoing development, than leave people wondering. I understand there is an unofficial Monero foundation of sorts formed where donations could be aggregated and parceled out for funding development, marketing, etc.. Who wants to be at the mercy of donations? Not me. That is politics, ripe for corruption, political cat fighting, the need to compromise leadership to least common denominator of groupthink, etc..

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May 12, 2015, 02:05:09 AM
 #23956

you wouldnt have to convince an older generation to hold bitcoin, if those twins actually passed their ETF or whatever.

it`ll look like any other traditional symbol on the stock market, so they would consider it as .dot com history on what they observed back then.

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May 12, 2015, 02:05:36 AM
 #23957

Welcome to the NWO fascism...

@ORO ... 6. All your IP are belong to us ...

http://nationalcan.ning.com/video/paypal-assert-copyright-ownership-of-all-intellectual-property

And automobile companies want cars "sold" as software ...

the list just keeps getting longer :-(

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May 12, 2015, 03:06:26 AM
 #23958

that's kind of a weird chart b/c it is denominated in BTC.  even Meni says so:

These values should be taken with a grain of salt, because of the many modeling assumptions made

"value" will vary greatly depending on whether 1BTC buys you a loaf of bread vs an island.

It being denominated in BTC is not one of the modeling assumptions. That's because both the gain and loss from such an attack are measured in BTC. So it is correct to consider the numbers as BTC quantities, whatever those happen to be worth.

The modeling assumptions are primarily how much resale etc. value the attacker recovers from the unpaid purchase and how many attacks can be pulled off simultaneously. The latter is probably the riskier assumption.

@rocks, the chart already assumes rewards of 25 BTC/block. It will, however, need to be adjusted (down) when we hit 12.5 BTC/block.
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May 12, 2015, 03:20:36 AM
 #23959

smooth I am not following that discussion but what about rented hardware attacks? Doesn't that involve the BTC exchange value or does the network hashrate scaling to BTC value negate? (sorry didn't think this out)

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May 12, 2015, 03:21:31 AM
 #23960

@rocks, the chart already assumes rewards of 25 BTC/block. It will, however, need to be adjusted (down) when we hit 12.5 BTC/block.

Yeah, saw that after skimming the paper this afternoon. Am curious to re-run the numbers if I have time in a bit to see how the results look with a 12.5 BTC/block reward and other future expected rewards. If I get around to that will post back.
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