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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1981621 times)
smooth
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May 19, 2015, 08:10:16 PM
 #24401

That window is quickly closing. The Circles, Paypals, are preparing to close it, at least in Bitcoin's current market as a speculation on the potential for a global ledger and money transfers without being tied to one behemoth (e.g. Paypal). Bitcoin is really a way of scaling Paypal to everyone while pretending it isn't (obfuscating that is) owned by Peter Thiel et al. Bitcoin is a reverse takeover of global banking by pretending it is open and fair. Bitcoin is the way you force national governments to accede to an international banking regulation.

I don't know, to me it looks like the more the Coinbase, Circle, Paypal, etc. turn Bitcoin into a form of ersatz crypto that is really at its core more like fiat, the more the door opens, not closes. If that wasn't happening already, Monero would have half or less of the support it has now.

This may be a slow, even multi-generational process. I expect that as a possible, though not certain outcome. I don't buy that this will all play out over the next 2-3 years, necessarily. Nor do I consider 0.1% to be much of a lead at all. Every credible crypto is milimeters from the starting line, and there may not even be a race to be won by one at all, as you said.



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TPTB_need_war
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May 19, 2015, 08:10:45 PM
 #24402

Positive wealth effect = increase in marketcap : net virgin demand

In CKG case, there was $50k new money wanting in, which ended up raising the marketcap to $500k, making the wealth effect coefficient of 10x.

I see what you mean. It's a function of the strength of the holders' hands. The stronger the hands, the greater the wealth effect. As your excellent analysis of dishoarding shows, there's an incentive to hold for the first few doublings (whatever starts to be life-changing), then sell at a certain rate

I have to disagree with rpietila. The whales can't sell until the masses come in. There isn't typically enough liquidity until then. The market can sniff their moves out because they are simply too large. Only the masses are too stupid not to sniff it. The wealth effect is illusionary until the float is filled with those buy high and sell low. Or until you've converted the SoV into a UoA by bringing the masses sufficiently into it in small enough morsels (checking account not brokerage account balances) that they don't need to stampede sell.

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May 19, 2015, 08:16:08 PM
 #24403

I take seriously the ledger-refinement point that has endowed Bitcoin with uniquely strong hands over the years, and of course Bitcoin's position isn't maintained merely by its price, but by infrastructure, track record, dev team, length of time at very high valuations (gigantic bullseye for attackers), etc.

I agree with this. Look, LTC got to within 20% of BTC on a price basis briefly (market cap was smaller since LTC is newer but that's a relatively small effect), and there was no real threat to Bitcoin there.

This is a young market and a young technology space. There will be a lot of churn, most of which is best described as sound and fury signifying nothing.
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May 19, 2015, 08:21:03 PM
 #24404

LTC got to within 20% of BTC on a price basis briefly (market cap was smaller since LTC is newer but that's a relatively small effect), and there was no real threat to Bitcoin there.

Because it was the best coin for GPUs to mine for a while after ASICs banished them from Bitcoin (so all that BTC discarded hardware value was infused into Litecoin), then afaik the speculators piled on to the ramp up (remember people looking for leverag over BTC in the 2013 run), and when that ended (and with ASICs for Litecoin) afaik it cratered (haven't been watching lately).

And this is a critical point. If you can move the worlds CPUs into your coin decentralized, you can beat Bitcoin because you can move more hardware value into your coin. Especially if you can give the mined morsels to be so small that no one sells and they instead circulate those morsels on a use-case that Bitcoin can't do.

Why do you think I expended so much effort perfecting a CPU (ASIC/GPU resistant[1]) hash that I believe is far superior to Monero's (you can verify or refute if ever it is released).

[1] I mean not more than 10X efficiency advantage for an ASIC.

Zangelbert Bingledack
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May 19, 2015, 08:23:20 PM
 #24405

constantly switching to newer altcoins, even if they represent true improvements, is destructive to SOV.  thus, the whole concept of cryptocurrency as a SOV fails miserably.  they fail to see this thus their activities are destructive to the SOV concept.

This is one reason I've been wary of the "Bitcoin is shopper's paradise" idea of the past few years where merchant adoption was overemphasized or emphasized before its time, and the premature reference to Bitcoin as "the currency of the Internet" (/r/Bitcoin's sidebar) when it only "has currency," as it were, in a few niche markets so far. This marketing brought in so many people who didn't understand that everything is founded on SoV, and who didn't understand the ledger but rather thought of BTC as "digital tokens you can send through the Internet" (the famous WeUseCoins video with 6M views), with all the second-thoughts and objections that distorted understanding results in.

Well, I agree with your observation about it all being terribly premature but I disagree with your conclusion. In fact my conclusion is exactly the opposite. It is precisely because that focus is premature that Bitcoin has zero legitimacy to claim to be the global ledger of anything other than Bitcoin. You can't be the global ledger of money until and unless you are established -- in reality not just in some supporters' imaginations -- as money.

I agree in one important sense: my comments today on store of value become irrelevant if a new coin (new ledger) emerges and gets massively more investment from outside the current crypto community such that Bitcoin users only constitute a tiny percentage of crypto users anymore. It's clear enough why, because in that situation, we potentially have most of the population using a cryptoledger for the first time without ever having considered Bitcoin a store of value. Instead they consider the new ledger as a store of value, because it's all they've ever known post-fiat. In their minds, the SoV-destroying precedent of "must switch ledger when upgrading protocol" has never been set.

However, I think the analysis I gave earlier today would apply to that ledger, and we'd never see any ledger switches after that except in catastrophic circumstances.
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May 19, 2015, 08:25:15 PM
 #24406

constantly switching to newer altcoins, even if they represent true improvements, is destructive to SOV.  thus, the whole concept of cryptocurrency as a SOV fails miserably.  they fail to see this thus their activities are destructive to the SOV concept.

This is one reason I've been wary of the "Bitcoin is shopper's paradise" idea of the past few years where merchant adoption was overemphasized or emphasized before its time, and the premature reference to Bitcoin as "the currency of the Internet" (/r/Bitcoin's sidebar) when it only "has currency," as it were, in a few niche markets so far. This marketing brought in so many people who didn't understand that everything is founded on SoV, and who didn't understand the ledger but rather thought of BTC as "digital tokens you can send through the Internet" (the famous WeUseCoins video with 6M views), with all the second-thoughts and objections that distorted understanding results in.

Well, I agree with your observation about it all being terribly premature but I disagree with your conclusion. In fact my conclusion is exactly the opposite. It is precisely because that focus is premature that Bitcoin has zero legitimacy to claim to be the global ledger of anything other than Bitcoin. You can't be the global ledger of money until and unless you are established -- in reality not just in some supporters' imaginations -- as money.

I agree in one important sense: my comments today on store of value become irrelevant if a new coin (new ledger) emerges and gets massively more investment from outside the current crypto community such that Bitcoin users only constitute a tiny percentage of crypto users anymore. It's clear enough why, because in that situation, we potentially have most of the population using a cryptoledger for the first time without ever having considered Bitcoin a store of value. Instead they consider the new ledger as a store of value, because it's all they've ever known post-fiat.

However, I think the analysis I gave earlier today would apply to that ledger, and we'd never see any ledger switches after that except in catastrophic circumstances.

As I said, I agree when you get to the point where it actually resembles a global ledger. Something that grabbed 0.2% could still be overtaken by something that grabbed for example 1%. But if and when you get to 20% or 80% or whatever, then no.

Zangelbert Bingledack
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May 19, 2015, 08:26:51 PM
 #24407

As I said, I agree when you get to the point where it actually resembles a global ledger. Something that grabbed 0.2% could still be overtaken by something that grabbed for example 1%. But if and when you get to 20% or 80% or whatever, then no.

Right, all in context.

A good example is that in Japan today I learned Bitcoin is getting so little adoption (due to MtGox being all they know of it) that Ripple is actually ahead in terms of total amount invested (they used MLM/Amway to sell it Cheesy). When you have an entirely different population to choose from, nothing I said about precedents regarding SoV applies, since the new population is unaware of the precedent.

For practical purposes, though, I don't see something that is very much like Bitcoin being able to pull that kind of "new population group" trick, unless circumstances change in some unforeseen way, possibly regulatory.
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May 19, 2015, 08:34:58 PM
 #24408

As I said, I agree when you get to the point where it actually resembles a global ledger. Something that grabbed 0.2% could still be overtaken by something that grabbed for example 1%. But if and when you get to 20% or 80% or whatever, then no.

Right, all in context.

Has Bitcoin already captured a few % of its final market? I say yes, because it appears to be limited to helping Paypal & friends (Goldman, etc) do a global obfuscated reserve takeover of traditional consumer (or B2C) transactional banking only. And realize that most of the world's population is unbanked or already has a Paypal account (and I consider Bitcoin = Paypal = Coinbase = Circle already it is just a matter of releasing what is already in the cards).

Will Bitcoin ever be mined regularly by all humans? Is there any market for that?

Will Bitcoin ever be used in decentralized micropayments? Is there any market for that? (Coinbase et all won't be able to accomodate the same level of network effects that a decentralized solution would)

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May 19, 2015, 08:35:48 PM
 #24409

And this is a critical point. If you can move the worlds CPUs into your coin decentralized, you can beat Bitcoin because you can move more hardware value into your coin. Especially if you can give the mined morsels to be so small that no one sells and they instead circulate those morsels on a use-case that Bitcoin can't do.

+1

The monetization of the great masses is both intriguing and important for me. CKG PoP emission is one try. That fulfills the condition that the value received is too small to be sold, yet big enough to have ingame transactional value, and games (as all MMO social networks) can quickly achieve network effects which are very valuable.

The value of CK is $5,000 per player, which is more than the value of BTC per owner. Some MMO have more players than Bitcoin has owners. Combining these 2 would result in a virtual economy larger than Bitcoin, and having Monero as the ingame currency, with CKG, CKS, land and a host of other things as assets.
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May 19, 2015, 08:45:21 PM
 #24410

Sometimes I believe the central banks shooting themselves in the foot could do more for bitcoin than all the VC investment in the world. If they ever implemented a cash ban for real, there would be a significant effort to find a new cash-like mechanism, enter bitcoin.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-19/cashless-society
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May 19, 2015, 08:49:58 PM
 #24411

enter bitcoin = Paypal = Coinbase = Circle = Facebook = ...

Zangelbert Bingledack
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May 19, 2015, 08:52:24 PM
 #24412

This isn't a moral criticism, but a practical one, as argued in the post. Stores of value can change, but this cannot be a fast process as that contravenes the very definition of "store of value." Not unless it absolutely has to happen (facing catastrophe), as I also mentioned.

Well, again, there is no fast process at work here. <0.1% of the store-of-value from gold, fiat, etc. has shifted to Bitcoin. In fact the real number considering all store-of-value asset classes is probably far less than 0.1% but that's an easy number to use. If 0.2% moves to some other cryptocoin next year that will still be an extremely slow process, but Bitcoin will likely be left behind at that point.

I don't disagree, but I have assumed the usual context here is basically Bitcoin investors "branching out" into some altcoins. One could make a somewhat valid criticism that this context is changing to small degree, the best examples being Ripple and Ethereum and maybe Dogecoin, where they are actively trying to source users and investors from outside the Bitcoin community (BitShares to an extent as well). As long as Bitcoin is "the main attraction" into the space, which as far as I can tell it overwhelmingly is, the points I made seem to hold.
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May 19, 2015, 08:53:10 PM
 #24413

Sometimes I believe the central banks shooting themselves in the foot could do more for bitcoin than all the VC investment in the world. If they ever implemented a cash ban for real, there would be a significant effort to find a new cash-like mechanism, enter bitcoin.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-19/cashless-society

the disingenuous thing about that policy is that it is an attempt not to force consumers to buy things in the real economy, but to force them to speculate in assets like stocks and bonds so that the current holders (the financial elite) can dump to the masses at a higher top.
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May 19, 2015, 08:55:37 PM
 #24414

I don't disagree, but I have assumed the context here is basically Bitcoin investors "branching out" into some altcoins. One could make a somewhat valid criticism that this context is changing to small degree, the best examples being Ripple and Ethereum and maybe Dogecoin, where they are actively trying to source users and investors from outside the Bitcoin community (BitShares to an extent as well).

There'll be a new monero investments website soon as well, which presents the investment case in XMR without basing it on BTC, and also lists the options to buy it directly with fiat.
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May 19, 2015, 08:56:04 PM
 #24415

And this is a critical point. If you can move the worlds CPUs into your coin decentralized, you can beat Bitcoin because you can move more hardware value into your coin. Especially if you can give the mined morsels to be so small that no one sells and they instead circulate those morsels on a use-case that Bitcoin can't do.

+1

The monetization of the great masses is both intriguing and important for me. CKG PoP emission is one try. That fulfills the condition that the value received is too small to be sold, yet big enough to have ingame transactional value, and games (as all MMO social networks) can quickly achieve network effects which are very valuable.

The value of CK is $5,000 per player, which is more than the value of BTC per owner. Some MMO have more players than Bitcoin has owners. Combining these 2 would result in a virtual economy larger than Bitcoin, and having Monero as the ingame currency, with CKG, CKS, land and a host of other things as assets.

It seems reasonable, and afair TPTB have cracked down on exchanges for game currencies because they do realize this threat.

Is Monero ready to resist such crackdowns? Does it have decentralized exchanges? Can the authorities not track down IP addresses and make examples to discourage others from subverting a ban?

Might work.

My idea is an area that is more targeted to the market of those who need anonymity and thus might be more willing to fight. Not sure if game players want to pick an unnecessary fight with the government.

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May 19, 2015, 09:00:17 PM
 #24416

I don't disagree, but I have assumed the context here is basically Bitcoin investors "branching out" into some altcoins. One could make a somewhat valid criticism that this context is changing to small degree, the best examples being Ripple and Ethereum and maybe Dogecoin, where they are actively trying to source users and investors from outside the Bitcoin community (BitShares to an extent as well).

There'll be a new monero investments website soon as well, which presents the investment case in XMR without basing it on BTC, and also lists the options to buy it directly with fiat.

skimmed the current site but couldn't find any specifics on initial distribution or supply.
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May 19, 2015, 09:01:32 PM
 #24417

I don't disagree, but I have assumed the context here is basically Bitcoin investors "branching out" into some altcoins. One could make a somewhat valid criticism that this context is changing to small degree, the best examples being Ripple and Ethereum and maybe Dogecoin, where they are actively trying to source users and investors from outside the Bitcoin community (BitShares to an extent as well).

There'll be a new monero investments website soon as well, which presents the investment case in XMR without basing it on BTC, and also lists the options to buy it directly with fiat.

Yes, there will be. Monero will be $300k at the end of this year. :-) Do not forget to take your meds.
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May 19, 2015, 09:01:44 PM
 #24418

Sometimes I believe the central banks shooting themselves in the foot could do more for bitcoin than all the VC investment in the world. If they ever implemented a cash ban for real, there would be a significant effort to find a new cash-like mechanism, enter bitcoin.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-19/cashless-society

the disingenuous thing about that policy is that it is an attempt not to force consumers to buy things in the real economy, but to force them to speculate in assets like stocks and bonds so that the current holders (the financial elite) can dump to the masses at a higher top.

That and it enables the state to steal property, not just through negative real rates that comes from inflation, but also from negative nominal rates.

Forcing everyone off of cash and onto bank accounts with negative interest rates, starts to look an awful lot like illegal seizure of property and a 4th amendment violation. Not that that matters at all today.
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May 19, 2015, 09:02:40 PM
 #24419

this is actually inspiring that all these divergent opinions still have the maturity and willingness to break bread together in the same room. i'm sure all their differing views were aired and hopefully some positive consensus will arise:



Thank you very much. It is the second pic I've seen of Szabo which reaffirms the first.

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May 19, 2015, 09:03:34 PM
 #24420

I don't disagree, but I have assumed the context here is basically Bitcoin investors "branching out" into some altcoins. One could make a somewhat valid criticism that this context is changing to small degree, the best examples being Ripple and Ethereum and maybe Dogecoin, where they are actively trying to source users and investors from outside the Bitcoin community (BitShares to an extent as well).

There'll be a new monero investments website soon as well, which presents the investment case in XMR without basing it on BTC, and also lists the options to buy it directly with fiat.

To be honest, that's probably the way to go for true altcoins (alt-ledgers, not spinoffs). If you take my arguments posted over the past few days on altcoins seriously, the conclusion seems to be either abandon the investment before it cools off (gets spun off or sidechained by Bitcoin) or aim for the "Hail Mary pass" from outside virgin investors and users. Note that near term I think Monero will rise against the other alts; I'm talking strictly long term here.

Even I, Mr. Bitcoin Maximalist, would invest in an altcoin if it looked like it would somehow be successfully pushed to a huge audience that was separate and much bigger than Bitcoin's community,* assuming it had utility. That would be because, in a very real sense, it would not be an altcoin at all. To those people, to that new population, it would be exactly what Bitcoin was to us. Sui generis. "The WWL." However, it would be a tough trick at this stage to get them to forget/ignore Bitcoin enough to make this dynamic work. Ripple can kind of do it even though everyone knows Bitcoin now, because their product (giving them the benefit of the doubt that their product is even a thing) is different enough. Add in the need for a track record and the hurdle is even higher.

*Extreme example to make the point: you find an alien planet that won't interface with Earth for many more decades/centuries and launch it there. What purpose would there be in referring to it as an "altcoin" anymore? It's the WWL. It's THE blockchain.
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