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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804713 times)
PenguinFire
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May 21, 2015, 02:51:47 AM
 #24721

Question: When gold "collapses" how long is it usually for?  Weeks to months?  I have not been trading long and was just curious.

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May 21, 2015, 02:53:12 AM
 #24722

Users mining in algorithm where pools are impossible is positive for decentralization of mining.

This is an interesting question. I've seen the counterargument that preventing pools increases the incentive for large farms (including, I suppose, the distributed sort of farms that involve devices in disparate locations but centrally controlled). That might be negative for decentralization of mining broadly, since at least with pools as they mostly exist today, the actual miners can switch pools (often cypherdoc makes this argument). I'm not sure.

I have in mind a cryptographic means of preventing pools. One of the fundamental design errors for PoW mining has been the simultaneity requirement that leads to orphans. It is essentially an aliasing error on consensus. That will give you a big hint as to what the big breakthrough in my design solution is. And it turns out I can retrofit it to a non-PoW algorithm that doesn't suffer from PoS's weaknesses, thus our recent discussion on 21 Inc has proven to be very lucrative for me. As usual I (and the community) benefit greatly from discussions with you. How will I repay you?

PoW is now a dead-end (due to the 21 Inc economics) except it has value in attaining the widest spread initial distribution for a coin.

Thus Bitcoin (and apologetically Monero) are dead ends in terms of a decentralized future. I will fork the community and bring in a somewhat orthogonal userbase of the most intelligent Libertarians. My plan is now solidified.

I am preparing to go silent. Any questions or comments?

kazuki49
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May 21, 2015, 03:24:00 AM
 #24723

I have in mind a cryptographic means of preventing pools. One of the fundamental design errors for PoW mining has been the simultaneity requirement that leads to orphans. It is essentially an aliasing error on consensus. That will give you a big hint as to what the big breakthrough in my design solution is. And it turns out I can retrofit it to a non-PoW algorithm that doesn't suffer from PoS's weaknesses, thus your recently discussion on 21 Inc has proven to be very lucrative for me. As usual I (and the community) benefit greatly from discussions with you. How will I repay you?

PoW is now a dead-end (due to the 21 Inc economics) except it has value in attaining the widest spread initial distribution for a coin.

Thus Bitcoin (and apologetically Monero) are dead ends in terms of a decentralized future. I will fork the community and bring in a somewhat orthogonal userbase of the most intelligent Libertarians. My plan is now solidified.

I am preparing to go silent. Any questions or comments?

I'm looking forward, dont keep us all in the dark!
NewLiberty
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Gresham's Lawyer


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May 21, 2015, 04:39:45 AM
 #24724

...
21's plan, as stated, is pure bullshit. The only question is whether they know it or not.

Let's do an order-of-magnitude calculation…

An article from Life Hacker reports that it costs about $0.50 to keep your phone charged-up for a year:



...

  ~= $107,000,000 per year

This means that the expected revenue is not insignificant.  

...and this analysis is only considering phones rather than all the other devices that could also be set up with this.

The > 43% of hashpower centralized in a single entity might concern folks.

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shmadz
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May 21, 2015, 05:31:24 AM
 #24725

As a guy that's been mining for a few years now, I can get behind the idea of mining space heaters. I even wanted to place a small mining farm in the furnace room and then control the vents with individual thermostats to distribute the heat, dumping excess heat as needed.

But mining on a phone, it's just not reasonable. You could put the same chip on a USB stick and it would perform better.

Serious mining makes for some serious heat. If I'm 21 the household heating market is where I would target.



"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
Erdogan
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May 21, 2015, 05:51:42 AM
 #24726

The price of mining a bitcoin tends to approach the price of a bitcoin, so the question is rather is 21's approach equal to or better than large scale mining.

"Tends to approach" is vague.

In the short term, the marginal cost of mining almost exactly equals the price of a Bitcoin (excluding, possibly, some short transition periods when the price of a Bitcoin is just so high and/or increasing so fast that it is hard to catch it), but if you are below marginal cost, then you are more efficient than the marginal miner and you make a operating profit, which may or may not cover your investment. In the long term, that's the time horizon when investments pay off, or don't. Nothing lasts forever.


No, tend to approach is the correct term. There cost will never exactly reflect the price, due to speculative errors from the miners when they decide to expand or contract, therefore the cost will be different also between miners. So again, can the 21's plan for mining compete with large scale mining? Small scale mining can be and is continually tested, what they bring to the table is a new chip. So can the new chip revive small scale mining?


Edit: You can never know in advance, but I would guess that if the chip is good in a random small scale device, it is even better if you pack a few hundred in a dedicated device with proportionally designed power supply, fans the rest of the stuff that is needed. Is it possible to construct a chip that is better than current mining, and at the same time can not be used large scale?

You can not rely on persons with experience in funding. Stranger projects have been started, a company with million dollar donut cars, selling for 100K per car and losing 900K per car comes to mind.


from what i've read, 21 is not new to mining.  apparently they've been at it for at least 2 yrs with pretty impressive BTC yields.  can't remember the specifics.

with that experience, they've designed a new chip for small devices like smartphones.  you'd think they've done extensive R&D before taking this leap.

Again, trust in the people. I am not so sure, stupid projects are suggested all the time. If it is going to work, there has to be something in there that is not yet revealed.
Erdogan
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May 21, 2015, 05:54:56 AM
 #24727

I obviously don't agree to that, it has to be economically viable to exist.

No, no no. A million times no.

e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com

Quote
Are you suggesting a big con?

It could be a good business plan, or a mistake, or a con. You're excluding the middle.


I hate selective quoting. The con part, that is viable only on a small scale.

Okay, I didn't follow it. What's the con?


I was too quick, your comments were ok, I deleted my post, but too late.

Somebody suggest that people would buy these phones for extra, use extra power, not knowing they earned money for the company only. That a con.
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May 21, 2015, 06:13:45 AM
 #24728

I obviously don't agree to that, it has to be economically viable to exist.

No, no no. A million times no.

e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com

Quote
Are you suggesting a big con?

It could be a good business plan, or a mistake, or a con. You're excluding the middle.


I hate selective quoting. The con part, that is viable only on a small scale.

Okay, I didn't follow it. What's the con?


I was too quick, your comments were ok, I deleted my post, but too late.

Somebody suggest that people would buy these phones for extra, use extra power, not knowing they earned money for the company only. That a con.


Ok, I'll try again... why put that chip in the phone if you could just include it in the charger cable? Or charging pad for wireless charging?

Battery life, size, weight, efficiency are all competing qualities for phones and putting a bitcoin miner in your phone is not going to make it more competitive.

(Secure enclave type wallet on the other hand = no brainer)

"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
dropt
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May 21, 2015, 06:29:27 AM
 #24729

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak
Erdogan
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May 21, 2015, 06:49:12 AM
 #24730

I obviously don't agree to that, it has to be economically viable to exist.

No, no no. A million times no.

e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com

Quote
Are you suggesting a big con?

It could be a good business plan, or a mistake, or a con. You're excluding the middle.


I hate selective quoting. The con part, that is viable only on a small scale.

Okay, I didn't follow it. What's the con?


I was too quick, your comments were ok, I deleted my post, but too late.

Somebody suggest that people would buy these phones for extra, use extra power, not knowing they earned money for the company only. That a con.


Ok, I'll try again... why put that chip in the phone if you could just include it in the charger cable? Or charging pad for wireless charging?

Battery life, size, weight, efficiency are all competing qualities for phones and putting a bitcoin miner in your phone is not going to make it more competitive.

(Secure enclave type wallet on the other hand = no brainer)

Exactly, it is going to be less competitive.
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May 21, 2015, 07:35:10 AM
 #24731

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak

Thank you. Very interesting. Cool stuff. But...

It still sounds like just processing and relaying transactions. I don't see how these devices would ever find a block, or ever get paid out even if they did.

Doesn't sound like the block rewards are the goal though... Very interesting...

Just doesn't sound like mining as I define it.

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May 21, 2015, 07:46:14 AM
 #24732

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak

Thank you. Very interesting. Cool stuff. But...

It still sounds like just processing and relaying transactions. I don't see how these devices would ever find a block, or ever get paid out even if they did.

Doesn't sound like the block rewards are the goal though... Very interesting...
Yep, thats what i got from it.

Sounds like we have fast forwarded to the time we are approaching 21M bitcoins, and this stuff would be the answer to no more block rewards. No?
Zangelbert Bingledack
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May 21, 2015, 07:48:19 AM
 #24733

Anyone want to refute this guy:

http://www.clearmatics.com/2015/05/no-bitcoin-is-not-the-future-of-securities-settlement/

Only sort of valid point he brings up is the Sybil attack.

Oooh, that article is a pretty big bombshell (everyone should read it, just because a lot of people will take it seriously). He brings up some interesting points about a shorting attack, but I don't think his argument properly accounts for how Bitcoin will grow as the threat grows. (A common mistake among Bitcoin critics.) See for example:



One of Gavin's proposals on how to mitigate the threat of a 51% attack: http://gavintech.blogspot.jp/2012/05/neutralizing-51-attack.html But this only mitigates the denial-of-service aspect, not the double-spending aspect that the Clearmatics article refers to. Still it seems like if it's for settlement you can just wait a very long time, like 60 confirmations, or 10 hours, or even something like 3 days as it takes now for securities, but save on all the expenses. What are the odds that a 51% goes undetected for that long? It would totally screw up the ledger even if it were detected and legally rolled back, sure, but the premise is that the motivation of the attacker is to double-spend the security, not just to watch Bitcoin burn.
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May 21, 2015, 07:52:42 AM
 #24734

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak

Thank you. Very interesting. Cool stuff. But...

It still sounds like just processing and relaying transactions. I don't see how these devices would ever find a block, or ever get paid out even if they did.

Doesn't sound like the block rewards are the goal though... Very interesting...
Yep, thats what i got from it.

Sounds like we have fast forwarded to the time we are approaching 21M bitcoins, and this stuff would be the answer to no more block rewards. No?

Umm, no. I don't think so. The transaction processing is important for the network to function, but the difficulty of finding a block is the key to the security of the whole system.

I guess maybe a billion devices that do maybe a few mega hash every now and then, when they're plugged in, might find some blocks, but I don't think that's sufficient incentive to ensure security.

"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
Zangelbert Bingledack
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May 21, 2015, 08:05:42 AM
 #24735

Re: 21 and mining pools

The whole reason for mining pools is because miners care about variance. But consumers don't, since they don't even know/care the device is hashing. So have each device be a mining node* (not just a hashing machine) but set up so that, in the event that it wins the block reward lottery, the reward all goes to the manufacturer. Either by some automatic hardcoding or by a contractual agreement. (Alternatively, the reward could be split 75/25 or some other way, if consumers are interested in "playing the lottery," though I'm not sure that would be much fun compared to buying a lottery ticket, because the results take years to come in.)

To manufacturers that are big enough or can afford to wait out the variance, it won't matter much.

The only catch is that each machine doesn't have a replenishing supply of satoshis to use for IoT. Still, preload them with a bit or just send satoshis to them from the manufacturer on a monthly basis - the hard problem of them having a Bitcoin wallet to receive them is already solved anyway.

*Or if a node can't be fit on a phone, have some larger home appliance be the node, everything else just hashes.
lunarboy
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May 21, 2015, 08:06:32 AM
 #24736

For the people clambering on about phone mining, listen to this:

https://m.soundcloud.com/elux-1/21-inc-embedded-engineer-on-whaleclub-teamspeak

Thank you. Very interesting. Cool stuff. But...

It still sounds like just processing and relaying transactions. I don't see how these devices would ever find a block, or ever get paid out even if they did.

Doesn't sound like the block rewards are the goal though... Very interesting...
Yep, thats what i got from it.

Sounds like we have fast forwarded to the time we are approaching 21M bitcoins, and this stuff would be the answer to no more block rewards. No?


That's cleared everything up. IT'S NOT A MINER its a massively distributed transactional processing chip, not for making money.

 RAM for payments.
Bagatell
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May 21, 2015, 11:27:56 AM
 #24737

Quote
I think you are right.. I think that perception of gold … it has fallen out of favour. Sentiment towards gold is as bad as we have seen it since the 2003/2004 period.

Bitcoin is the more sexy thing. People want to talk about bitcoin and anything with “bit” in the name seems to be doing very well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-21/gold-bullion-%E2%80%9Cless-sexy%E2%80%9D-bitcoin-%E2%80%A6-now
rpietila
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May 21, 2015, 01:20:51 PM
 #24738

Quote
I think you are right.. I think that perception of gold … it has fallen out of favour. Sentiment towards gold is as bad as we have seen it since the 2003/2004 period.

Bitcoin is the more sexy thing. People want to talk about bitcoin and anything with “bit” in the name seems to be doing very well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-21/gold-bullion-%E2%80%9Cless-sexy%E2%80%9D-bitcoin-%E2%80%A6-now

As it was in 2003/2004, being totally out of favor, it was a very good time to buy gold, and so it is now.

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May 21, 2015, 01:38:00 PM
 #24739

Quote
I think you are right.. I think that perception of gold … it has fallen out of favour. Sentiment towards gold is as bad as we have seen it since the 2003/2004 period.

Bitcoin is the more sexy thing. People want to talk about bitcoin and anything with “bit” in the name seems to be doing very well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-21/gold-bullion-%E2%80%9Cless-sexy%E2%80%9D-bitcoin-%E2%80%A6-now

As it was in 2003/2004, being totally out of favor, it was a very good time to buy gold, and so it is now.

lol at the last comment..

Bitcoin is NSA is MIT (is NWO). So we're on the winning side here. ^^
NewLiberty
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May 21, 2015, 01:44:58 PM
 #24740

As a guy that's been mining for a few years now, I can get behind the idea of mining space heaters. I even wanted to place a small mining farm in the furnace room and then control the vents with individual thermostats to distribute the heat, dumping excess heat as needed.

But mining on a phone, it's just not reasonable. You could put the same chip on a USB stick and it would perform better.

Serious mining makes for some serious heat. If I'm 21 the household heating market is where I would target.

Water heating, Electric blankets, some cooking, pool heating, greenhouses maybe,

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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