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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805692 times)
humanitee
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May 20, 2013, 04:34:15 PM
 #4981

Surprise this hasn't been bumped yet. Metals having an interesting day.
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May 20, 2013, 05:14:10 PM
 #4982

Thank you BitcoinAshley, my goal is to get to the point,  like you and cypher, where I can impart these things to others that don't know Smiley

I guess the better question is, how can I decipher the BS on zerohedge and the many true things they tout hahaha. My only concern is that they know that the doomsday-insider persona they put out gets readership and considering their audience, that they too can be easily manipulated for some ulterior motive.


Yes, they tend to exaggerate a lot. And remember, their goal is to make you think the financial apocalypse is right around the corner so you keep reading. IMO, they are correct about what's going to happen, but they have no idea WHEN it's going to happen, so in the meantime they are just exaggerating.

The bit about physical demand is interesting. ZeroHedge, Max Keiser, and every website/blog like it are screaming about chinese housewives loading up on gold, traffic jams on the streets in front of coin dealers in Asia, dealers out of stock and unable to find anything, etc, etc.
Here's what I've noticed: My dealer went from having most of its coins available for same-week shipping about a month or so ago, to now having 90% of its coins with a 14-21 day delay time. Similar dealers have same issue. However, there are still places you can get metals, there are even still coins at my dealer that will be shipped same week, and I doubt there's traffic jams in front of coin shops in India. It's just that prices are getting to the point where miners and wholesalers are really feeling the squeeze. They're taking a gamble - sell now and risk the market returning to where it was a month ago, or hold a lot of their inventory only to have prices fall further.

I think the effect on the market of the naked paper shorts is not to be underestimated and that is why I personally hold PMs. I don't think, as many "BTC bugs" do, that we are going to instantly transition to a world where BTC is used for every single transaction, fiat completely disappears, and PMs instantly drop in value.

Oakpacific, I've heard the "guns and ammo are the only thing that will be important in that SHTF scenario" argument many times and I don't believe it one bit. Sure, there are situations like all-out wars and massive civil unrest where you won't even have a chance to make a transaction. But that is not the only possible iteration of such a scenario, and I'd rather have a chance to buy something off my neighbour than shoot him for it and steal it, does that make sense? In the same way that we tell even the most butthurt bears to keep just one bitcoin in cold storage "Just in case," I think even the most anti-PM "BTC bugs" should keep at least a little physical around in case it's the best way to buy a train ticket to "get out of dodge" during the economopocalypse or whatever it is the blogsters are preaching these days. And in that "manufactured single-iteration of SHTF scenario where only guns and ammo matter," how are you going to buy more ammo from the redneck in the trailer park after you run out from defending your family against the an-cap looter gang? Oh right, shoulda brought some gold Grin Even that scenario used as an argument in the "that will never happen" category ends up defeating itself.

I should mention that I was comparing the fungibility of silver to gold, not to other currencies. I think it's safe to assume that most people realize PMs aren't too gifted in the fungibility department when compared to other currencies.

Quote from: vokain
I guess the biggest thing is that, gold and silver aren't what they used to be. Gold's utility has definitely decreased after the decoupling of gold-pegged fiat, but even more so compared to before we had fiat at all. Back then, it was common would trade a grain or three of gold for a cow or whatever. Who does that now? It truly does look like Bitcoin and gold are reversing.

Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that if we see any massive shift in the dominant world currencies, PMs will take a backseat to cryptocurrencies. In fact it is more likely they'll be stuffed into the trunk or the roof rack. I've no problem with that. So long as fiat gets run over, hit reverse, run over again, etc, then dragged from the back bumper by a chain on the pavement for 5 miles and thrown into an abandoned coal mine - I'll be a rich motherfucker and the world will be a better place Cool

BitcoinAshley,

your posts consistently prove to be well-thought out, framing a broad issue, then presenting it in an easily digestible way to the masses. This is one of the most sensible posts I've read exploring the PM/SHTF scenario.  Kudos.

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May 20, 2013, 05:31:12 PM
 #4983

Surprise this hasn't been bumped yet. Metals having an interesting day.

understatement.

silver free falls 5% then 12 hours later up 10%

crazy

Yeah its a really strange daily candle.
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May 20, 2013, 05:40:58 PM
 #4984

What's the time frame to "cover" a naked short? Since these shorts must be done at a loss, is it simply because CBs control the money supply that they can pull this stunt off?

...مكتوب
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May 20, 2013, 06:43:48 PM
 #4985

[...]
if the dollar died today id say the ration of people wanting to take gold over btc is about 10,000 to one. this might change in 5 years but gold is not yet dead.


This is an interesting point! If the USD and other major fiat currencies died "today," how many people would jump to BTC rather than gold and silver? A far greater portion of the population is familiar with gold and silver being used as a currencies in the "olden days" compared the portion who is ready to jump right onto Bitcoin.
And coin shops are all over the place. If hyperinflation hit the currency that the Argentinians are using to avoid their own currency's hyperinflation, it would be much easier and faster for folks to make a mad run on coin shops than to patiently research bitcoin for an entire week, start a online wallet account or download blockchain, KYC verify at an exchange, transfer money, figure out how to actually buy bitcoins, and then transfer to wallet.
I'm not saying that'd be the only choice, but there tends to be 3 viewpoints, all equally flawed:
(1) Only bitcoin!
(2) Only PMs!
(3) Only guns and ammo!
It's not as simple as "one currency taking over." Different exchanges of value will meet the needs of different people in different locales.

Quote from: Chainsaw
BitcoinAshley,

your posts consistently prove to be well-thought out, framing a broad issue, then presenting it in an easily digestible way to the masses. This is one of the most sensible posts I've read exploring the PM/SHTF scenario.  Kudos.

Thanks, now if only I can figure out how to pull it off in less than a thousand words Wink
Quote from: Goat
silver free falls 5% then 12 hours later up 10%
crazy


Quote from: vokain
What's the time frame to "cover" a naked short? Since these shorts must be done at a loss, is it simply because CBs control the money supply that they can pull this stunt off?

It's really a non-issue. It only becomes an issue if traders actually decide to bring their paper certs in and demand physical delivery. Of course there is not enough silver to cover demand in this case. And they're not even obligated to settle in real physical if they have it, since in the "fine print" it is never stated that physical is actually being allocated to you in a vault. More like the same ton is allocated to 15 different people. It hasn't happened and if it does happen, it won't happen anytime soon.
The CBs don't really play into it too much. The point is not that they could settling with "easy money," it's that (1) they usually aren't even asked to settle for physical, (2) they don't have to even if they are asked, and (3) settling with fiat just means that X% of the "silver/gold" on the market is actually just USD. It's just a little easier to do with all the "easy money" floating around. If COMEX and similar institutions defaulted (something the PM bugs keep predicting but trust me, ain't gonna happen anytime soon) you can be sure the "USD Faucet" run by Benny and the Inkjets would help them limp along to see another day with no penalty.
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May 20, 2013, 07:54:07 PM
 #4986

And coin shops are all over the place.

Not where I live... it's often more convenient to buy/sell to dealers in the USA.  Lips sealed
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May 20, 2013, 08:33:59 PM
 #4987

And coin shops are all over the place.

Not where I live... it's often more convenient to buy/sell to dealers in the USA.  Lips sealed
Came across some crazy video,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM
Zimbabwe nowadays uses the US Dollar because the Zimbabwean Dollar has been printed into oblivian
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May 20, 2013, 08:47:59 PM
 #4988

Thank you BitcoinAshley, my goal is to get to the point,  like you and cypher, where I can impart these things to others that don't know Smiley

I guess the better question is, how can I decipher the BS on zerohedge and the many true things they tout hahaha. My only concern is that they know that the doomsday-insider persona they put out gets readership and considering their audience, that they too can be easily manipulated for some ulterior motive.


Yes, they tend to exaggerate a lot. And remember, their goal is to make you think the financial apocalypse is right around the corner so you keep reading. IMO, they are correct about what's going to happen, but they have no idea WHEN it's going to happen, so in the meantime they are just exaggerating.

The bit about physical demand is interesting. ZeroHedge, Max Keiser, and every website/blog like it are screaming about chinese housewives loading up on gold, traffic jams on the streets in front of coin dealers in Asia, dealers out of stock and unable to find anything, etc, etc.
Here's what I've noticed: My dealer went from having most of its coins available for same-week shipping about a month or so ago, to now having 90% of its coins with a 14-21 day delay time. Similar dealers have same issue. However, there are still places you can get metals, there are even still coins at my dealer that will be shipped same week, and I doubt there's traffic jams in front of coin shops in India. It's just that prices are getting to the point where miners and wholesalers are really feeling the squeeze. They're taking a gamble - sell now and risk the market returning to where it was a month ago, or hold a lot of their inventory only to have prices fall further.

I think the effect on the market of the naked paper shorts is not to be underestimated and that is why I personally hold PMs. I don't think, as many "BTC bugs" do, that we are going to instantly transition to a world where BTC is used for every single transaction, fiat completely disappears, and PMs instantly drop in value.

Oakpacific, I've heard the "guns and ammo are the only thing that will be important in that SHTF scenario" argument many times and I don't believe it one bit. Sure, there are situations like all-out wars and massive civil unrest where you won't even have a chance to make a transaction. But that is not the only possible iteration of such a scenario, and I'd rather have a chance to buy something off my neighbour than shoot him for it and steal it, does that make sense? In the same way that we tell even the most butthurt bears to keep just one bitcoin in cold storage "Just in case," I think even the most anti-PM "BTC bugs" should keep at least a little physical around in case it's the best way to buy a train ticket to "get out of dodge" during the economopocalypse or whatever it is the blogsters are preaching these days. And in that "manufactured single-iteration of SHTF scenario where only guns and ammo matter," how are you going to buy more ammo from the redneck in the trailer park after you run out from defending your family against the an-cap looter gang? Oh right, shoulda brought some gold Grin Even that scenario used as an argument in the "that will never happen" category ends up defeating itself.

I should mention that I was comparing the fungibility of silver to gold, not to other currencies. I think it's safe to assume that most people realize PMs aren't too gifted in the fungibility department when compared to other currencies.

Quote from: vokain
I guess the biggest thing is that, gold and silver aren't what they used to be. Gold's utility has definitely decreased after the decoupling of gold-pegged fiat, but even more so compared to before we had fiat at all. Back then, it was common would trade a grain or three of gold for a cow or whatever. Who does that now? It truly does look like Bitcoin and gold are reversing.

Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that if we see any massive shift in the dominant world currencies, PMs will take a backseat to cryptocurrencies. In fact it is more likely they'll be stuffed into the trunk or the roof rack. I've no problem with that. So long as fiat gets run over, hit reverse, run over again, etc, then dragged from the back bumper by a chain on the pavement for 5 miles and thrown into an abandoned coal mine - I'll be a rich motherfucker and the world will be a better place Cool

BitcoinAshley,

your posts consistently prove to be well-thought out, framing a broad issue, then presenting it in an easily digestible way to the masses. This is one of the most sensible posts I've read exploring the PM/SHTF scenario.  Kudos.

It is pretty good, although I think she misunderstands why people want guns and ammo.  Maybe for some they are thinking about robbing their neighbor, but for me, I'm thinking about hunting my land  for meat.  It's sad to me how many people only think of guns in terms of human on human violence.  They are wonderful tools that are life sustaining when used properly.  The first thing one should learn about guns is to always be sure there are no humans at the end of your barrel at any time.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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BitcoinAshley
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May 20, 2013, 10:11:08 PM
 #4989

It is pretty good, although I think she misunderstands why people want guns and ammo.  Maybe for some they are thinking about robbing their neighbor, but for me, I'm thinking about hunting my land  for meat.  It's sad to me how many people only think of guns in terms of human on human violence.  They are wonderful tools that are life sustaining when used properly.  The first thing one should learn about guns is to always be sure there are no humans at the end of your barrel at any time.


You misunderstand my argument. I certainly did not argue that guns and ammo are undesirable or do not have value. I own guns myself. I am simply arguing against the black-and-white thinking that is common when people become too attached to the valuable asset of their choice, and create "false choice fallacy" about which 1 currency/asset (and no other) will be useful in the SHTF scenario they have manufactured specifically to serve the argument:
"BTC is great but with no internet when the power goes out for a month, you'll have to use silver and gold!"

"Silver and gold are going to be completely useless when the SHTF - you'll need guns and ammo to defend yourself / kill people / kill animals / whatever."

"Guns and ammo will be completely useless if you don't have any gold and silver to buy more ammo with"

"Relax, we're going to instantly and painlessly transition to a world where PMs  and fiat instantly drop in value, and BTC is everything. We'll have to figure out how to get androids and internet access out to tiny villages in 3rd world countries so they can continue to pay exorbitant amounts for the socialist government/private industry collusion-controlled wells they get their water from. But beyond that, my made-up scenario where you shouldn't even bother with guns, silver, gold, or vegetable seeds/farmland is completely believable and realistic! I swear!"

I think "All of the above" is a better hedge against whatever could and has happened, than dogmatically arguing, as some might do, that one specific currency or asset will be their saviour and all else is whack.
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May 20, 2013, 10:26:56 PM
 #4990

It is pretty good, although I think she misunderstands why people want guns and ammo.  Maybe for some they are thinking about robbing their neighbor, but for me, I'm thinking about hunting my land  for meat.  It's sad to me how many people only think of guns in terms of human on human violence.  They are wonderful tools that are life sustaining when used properly.  The first thing one should learn about guns is to always be sure there are no humans at the end of your barrel at any time.


You misunderstand my argument. I certainly did not argue that guns and ammo are undesirable or do not have value. I own guns myself. I am simply arguing against the black-and-white thinking that is common when people become too attached to the valuable asset of their choice, and create "false choice fallacy" about which 1 currency/asset (and no other) will be useful in the SHTF scenario they have manufactured specifically to serve the argument:
"BTC is great but with no internet when the power goes out for a month, you'll have to use silver and gold!"

"Silver and gold are going to be completely useless when the SHTF - you'll need guns and ammo to defend yourself / kill people / kill animals / whatever."

"Guns and ammo will be completely useless if you don't have any gold and silver to buy more ammo with"

"Relax, we're going to instantly and painlessly transition to a world where PMs  and fiat instantly drop in value, and BTC is everything. We'll have to figure out how to get androids and internet access out to tiny villages in 3rd world countries so they can continue to pay exorbitant amounts for the socialist government/private industry collusion-controlled wells they get their water from. But beyond that, my made-up scenario where you shouldn't even bother with guns, silver, gold, or vegetable seeds/farmland is completely believable and realistic! I swear!"

I think "All of the above" is a better hedge against whatever could and has happened, than dogmatically arguing, as some might do, that one specific currency or asset will be their saviour and all else is whack.


I understood your argument, and I agree with it, but my comment is tangential to it.  I only took issue with they way you presented guns as only useful for committing crime.  Obviously, there is no one thing that will save you in a SHTF situation besides a hardworking and loving community to live in.  Coming from a rural setting, the shit hitting the fan doesn't really worry me much.  We plant a little more and bump up our livestock numbers.  It's the urban people who freak out when they consider such a situation and then go looking for "saviours".

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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May 22, 2013, 03:11:41 AM
 #4991

I understood your argument, and I agree with it, but my comment is tangential to it.  I only took issue with they way you presented guns as only useful for committing crime.  Obviously, there is no one thing that will save you in a SHTF situation besides a hardworking and loving community to live in.  Coming from a rural setting, the shit hitting the fan doesn't really worry me much.  We plant a little more and bump up our livestock numbers.  It's the urban people who freak out when they consider such a situation and then go looking for "saviours".


Point taken. I think the difference in my perspective may simply have to do with my diet and my location. I don't consume meat and I live in a rural area in a tropical climate where food is grown year-round, so guns/ammo for purposes of food production is of no concern to me. In my personal situation, the only reason I'd have a gun is for self-defense. However I'll concede that it is a little short-sighted to present the "economic demand" for guns in that light, considering that there are so many more perspectives other than my own that I was not considering.

Also, for anyone interested: Professor Antal E. Fekete interview regarding gold backwardation, May 5, 2013.
http://professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFTheDailyBellinterview2013.pdf
A lot of "interesting" foods for thought in there. He has a nice tendency to speak out against the economists that libertarian-types tend to worship, like von Mises, Rothbard, and Friedman.
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May 22, 2013, 03:14:51 AM
 #4992

I understood your argument, and I agree with it, but my comment is tangential to it.  I only took issue with they way you presented guns as only useful for committing crime.  Obviously, there is no one thing that will save you in a SHTF situation besides a hardworking and loving community to live in.  Coming from a rural setting, the shit hitting the fan doesn't really worry me much.  We plant a little more and bump up our livestock numbers.  It's the urban people who freak out when they consider such a situation and then go looking for "saviours".


Point taken. I think the difference in my perspective may simply have to do with my diet and my location. I don't consume meat and I live in a rural area in a tropical climate where food is grown year-round, so guns/ammo for purposes of food production is of no concern to me. In my personal situation, the only reason I'd have a gun is for self-defense. However I'll concede that it is a little short-sighted to present the "economic demand" for guns in that light, considering that there are so many more perspectives I was not considering.

Also, for anyone interested: Professor Antal E. Fekete interview regarding gold backwardation, May 15, 2013.
http://professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFTheDailyBellinterview2013.pdf
A lot of "interesting" foods for thought in there.

There we go.... I'm from WV, so we only have about 4-6 months of weather warm enough to grow crops outdoors.  I actually used to be vegetarian as well, then I ate a hamburger and I was not longer cold all the time Wink.  I kid, but not being able to stay warm was a real problem with that diet in this climate.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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May 22, 2013, 05:32:07 PM
 #4993

nasty ass reversal in gold today rivalling that of just 2d ago.
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May 22, 2013, 06:09:46 PM
 #4994

nasty ass reversal in gold today rivalling that of just 2d ago.

fun times Smiley

not if you have stops set.
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May 22, 2013, 06:13:03 PM
 #4995

nasty ass reversal in gold today rivalling that of just 2d ago.

fun times Smiley

not if you have stops set.

Which is why don't play the paper games or leveraged markets. Physical is better than that in my view.

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May 22, 2013, 06:28:54 PM
 #4996

nasty ass reversal in gold today rivalling that of just 2d ago.

fun times Smiley

not if you have stops set.

Which is why don't play the paper games or leveraged markets. Physical is better than that in my view.

physical Bitcoin that is.  Wink
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May 22, 2013, 07:01:41 PM
 #4997

we get a +155 ramp in the morning, followed by a -230 dump in the afternoon in stocks.

BITCOIN USERS UNAFFECTED.
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May 22, 2013, 09:15:20 PM
 #4998

we get a +155 ramp in the morning, followed by a -230 dump in the afternoon in stocks.

BITCOIN USERS UNAFFECTED.

lol... on the same day Bitcoin more stable then both gold and stocks...
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May 23, 2013, 04:11:46 AM
 #4999

Paper gold shorts are markedly high recently, acc. to Bloomberg.

Last few times gold shorts spiked it appeared to be followed by a rise in gold. However this recent short spike, also larger than the last, has gold price continuing to decrease. Delayed reaction or beginning of permanent backwardation? (Notice how I commit false choice fallacy. So clever.)

Never thought I'd live to see the day where bitcoin is more stable than traditional assets... Grin

Is there any sort of a Bitcoin VIX out there?
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May 23, 2013, 01:55:55 PM
 #5000

Oh yeah baby,

The Daaash for Digital Caaash.  Wink
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