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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806598 times)
tvbcof
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April 19, 2013, 01:36:02 AM
 #4781

...
And yes, the most important aspect for the price right now is the demand for securitized gold—that demand is waning.

Couldn't happen to soon in my opinion.  To bad for the people who will realized in one big batch that the value is actually right around zero.


Yup. And once you remove that value what you are left with is about $400/oz gold.

I'm betting on several things:  1) Absence of an outlet for demand via the paper markets, and observation of tightness in the physical markets will result in increased interest in physical PM's.  2)  The $400-ish baseline observed since the 80's bubble was a result of PM's not being a competitive asset relative to other forms of investment, and turmoil and uncertainty with instruments displaying counter-party risk will preclude such an environment for the foreseeable future.  Very possibly in a BIG way.

Time will tell.

That would be neat. Hopefully Bitcoin is trading for a similar rate when this happens. I feel the need to diversify a bit and 1 bitcoin for 1 ounce of gold would suit me fine for a few ounces.

I'm only half joking that I wish to see 1BTC/kg-Au.  The supply/demand functions favor valuations in that range by my seat-of-the-pants guestimations.  But I won't be holding out that long before starting my move.


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April 19, 2013, 06:13:29 AM
 #4782

Gold treading water. Bitcoin spurting upward.
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April 19, 2013, 06:19:18 AM
 #4783

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/what-exactly-did-obama-say-wall-streets-ceos-last-thursday

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April 19, 2013, 08:39:04 AM
 #4784

if only all gold bugs would leave all their gold and enter bitcoin

than, after some period of stabilization,
go back, buy that gold, with only a percentage of their bitcoin...
tvbcof
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April 19, 2013, 08:43:21 AM
 #4785

Just want to say here in thailand massive lines to buy physical gold.

I bought a bit for my wife but man. Not seen it like this since 2008.

Just looked on e-bay and the purchases of today all went for North of $1600.  One at $1700.  This with the 'spot' price of $1400.  These are vastly higher spreads than I usually see on e-bay.  Looks like things are going to start to get...um...interesting.

edit:  'they' = 1oz Krugs


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April 19, 2013, 10:18:48 AM
 #4786

I see little chance of a larger correction to gold price unless the economy starts a miraculous recovery, which I don't believe in. Peak oil is still the most relevant problem that probably won't go away easily, next decade the earliest. Energy is the backbone of the whole economy and the gradually and slowly rising energy prices are a major source of friction in the economy causing everyone to take on more debt. Players in the economy are desperately trying to sustain growth while fundamentally there can be no growth because the energy to support that growth is simply not there.

Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.

I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.

Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.


peak oil what a scam

coal can be made into oil, good for another 300 years

thorium reactors, product substitution, tram systems, actual city planning

peak oil is n#1 scam

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April 19, 2013, 03:44:43 PM
 #4787

just thought i'd remind everyone of silverbox's beloved GPL.

-53%

did you buy more @ 1.54 like you promised you would?:

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April 19, 2013, 07:42:00 PM
 #4788

And yes, the most important aspect for the price right now is the demand for securitized gold—that demand is waning.

The demand is for physical gold. Securitized gold is paper.
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April 19, 2013, 08:01:04 PM
 #4789

I agree with miscreanity on most things. The people to win in the end, are those with the actual gold.

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April 19, 2013, 08:07:41 PM
 #4790


coal can be made into oil, good for another 300 years

peak oil is n#1 scam

Coal can be made into oil but you should understand how coal reserves are estimated and calculated.
I suggest you watch all 8 episodes of this alternately answer the 3 questions in the first 2 minutes of this video before you call peak oil the n#1 scam.

A Bitcoin based economy is the most practical solution I have found to the problem.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
tvbcof
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April 19, 2013, 08:20:30 PM
 #4791


coal can be made into oil, good for another 300 years

peak oil is n#1 scam

Coal can be made into oil but you should understand how coal reserves are estimated and calculated.
I suggest you watch all 8 episodes of this alternately answer the 3 questions in the first 2 minutes of this video before you call peak oil the n#1 scam.

A Bitcoin based economy is the most practical solution I have found to the problem.

I've long been of the opinion that there is not as much of a scarcity of carbon based fossil fuels as is often portrayed.  This 'scam' allows producers to jack prices up and gives excuses to engage in wars which also make some people very wealthy.

The chief problem we face is the capacity of our atmosphere to absorb the rapidly liberated carbon which has been sequestered over a period of millions or hundreds of millions of years.


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April 19, 2013, 08:49:55 PM
 #4792

I see little chance of a larger correction to gold price unless the economy starts a miraculous recovery, which I don't believe in. Peak oil is still the most relevant problem that probably won't go away easily, next decade the earliest. Energy is the backbone of the whole economy and the gradually and slowly rising energy prices are a major source of friction in the economy causing everyone to take on more debt. Players in the economy are desperately trying to sustain growth while fundamentally there can be no growth because the energy to support that growth is simply not there.

Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.

I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.

Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.


peak oil what a scam

coal can be made into oil, good for another 300 years

thorium reactors, product substitution, tram systems, actual city planning

peak oil is n#1 scam

You basing this analysis on any thought or just pulling it out of under your tin foil hat?  "Peak oil" never meant oil can't be acquired.  It just means that the rising price of oil makes (to some degree) other energy or investment in energy efficiency cheaper then oil.  This results in a "peak" in the production of oil.  So not a world shaking deal right now.  But it is important because it essentially means that it takes a great delta demand to change the delta supply.  It's market behavior is transitioning from a mineral like salt to one more like silver/gold -- that is, you can't just throw more mining equipment at the problem to rapidly get more.
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April 19, 2013, 11:28:11 PM
 #4793

Are we running out of resources?
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April 20, 2013, 01:52:09 AM
 #4794


It feels like we are running out of gold and Bitcoin's.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
marcus_of_augustus
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April 20, 2013, 03:45:45 AM
 #4795


Price can solve that ...

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April 20, 2013, 04:17:35 AM
 #4796


Not really. Price has no physical referent, and is not "wrapped in knowledge" but often manipulated and distorted due to twisted cultural and social values. We should implement technical measurements and solutions to technical and physical problems, not rely on false authority and political will.

Bitcoin combines money, the wrongest thing in the world, with software, the easiest thing in the world to get wrong.
Visit www.thevenusproject.com and www.theZeitgeistMovement.com.
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April 20, 2013, 10:06:14 AM
 #4797

It feels like we are running out of gold and Bitcoin's.
Price can solve that ...
Not really. Price has no physical referent, and is not "wrapped in knowledge" but often manipulated and distorted due to twisted cultural and social values. We should implement technical measurements and solutions to technical and physical problems, not rely on false authority and political will.

Well, I believe bitcoins will always be tradable to gold and vice versa Smiley Too bad for holders of inferior quality toilet paper.

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April 20, 2013, 10:19:17 AM
 #4798

I see little chance of a larger correction to gold price unless the economy starts a miraculous recovery, which I don't believe in. Peak oil is still the most relevant problem that probably won't go away easily, next decade the earliest. Energy is the backbone of the whole economy and the gradually and slowly rising energy prices are a major source of friction in the economy causing everyone to take on more debt. Players in the economy are desperately trying to sustain growth while fundamentally there can be no growth because the energy to support that growth is simply not there.
Peak oil is a scam.
Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.
False. Oil production 2005: 81.391m barrels per day. Oil production 2011: 83.576m barrels per day.
Source: BP Statistical Review.

And all you guys rambling about an energy crisis: Are you aware that the past 20 years we have been able to find economically extractable oil faster than we are getting it out of the ground? I suggest you look into these numbers before continuing your ramblings:
http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=7500&contentId=7068481

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April 20, 2013, 12:45:26 PM
 #4799

It feels like we are running out of gold and Bitcoin's.
Price can solve that ...
Not really. Price has no physical referent, and is not "wrapped in knowledge" but often manipulated and distorted due to twisted cultural and social values. We should implement technical measurements and solutions to technical and physical problems, not rely on false authority and political will.

Well, I believe bitcoins will always be tradable to gold and vice versa Smiley Too bad for holders of inferior quality toilet paper.

oh yeah, I noticed that, too. Most currency will give you a sore butt after quite a short time of usage. And that new-fangled plastic-stuff... it just doesn't cut it!

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
Adrian-x
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April 20, 2013, 06:11:57 PM
 #4800

And all you guys rambling about an energy crisis: Are you aware that the past 20 years we have been able to find economically extractable oil faster than we are getting it out of the ground? I suggest you look into these numbers before continuing your ramblings:

I'm sure oil "mining" is finite like gold mining, but oil production is probably "infinite", I'm sure PB wouldn't be a viable long term investment if they couldn't convince shareholders that peek oil wasn't a problem in the near future.

The fact is energy consumption is increasing on a steady growth trajectory doubling roughly every 10 years, and while production capacity is practically endless the finite supply is not. Energy became a 5 minutes to midnight problem for central planners when we had consumed about 1/3rd of known supply. This energy is the fundamental component to the exponential growth of human population. Looking at those numbers it makes Bitcoin bubbles look like small ripples. Our political system is 100% dependent on that energy to feed and maintain a placid democracy.

Some times accepting a truth can help you invest more appropriately, hence my interest in Gold, Bitcoin and Green technology.  

I would go out on a limb and venture if we couldn't inflate the money supply we wouldn't be able to invest in the necessary infrastructure to produce oil at an affordable price and we wouldn't have an environmental challenge to deal with. So I'm seeing this malinvestment as  part of the fiat bubble.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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