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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807335 times)
tvbcof
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April 11, 2013, 10:19:31 AM
 #4661

Gold DOWN.  Bitcoin UP.

It sure got quiet here quick. Not at all surprising how some of the same methods used for gold price suppression have been aimed at Bitcoin and had the same result of knocking prices down; not through any issue with Bitcoin itself, but the surrounding infrastructure.

As the leading conspiracy theorist around here, you may be interested in this:

https://www.facebook.com/MtGox/posts/455962117821534

I find it hard to believe that after this much time, after all of the money that Mt. Gox has made, after the availability of high performance hardware and software, etc, they cannot have come up with a decent matching engine implementation.  An alternate explanation is that they wish to have poor performance at times, but that's pretty outrageous and doesn't make much sense.  So, I guess there must be things I'm not thinking of.

---

On a different topic, another thought I had was that when I was trading, I usually either put in bids a long way away from the market or just made my purchase.  It was not worth it to me to try to chase the price for a fraction of a percent.  Might as well just go ahead and make the purchase.  If I'd finished my buy-bot before I had my fill of Bitcoin it might have been a little different but not much.

So, I wonder how the near-walls get filled to such a high level and move so quickly to stay near the price.

Then I thought, gee, if I were going to manipulate things and risk a large stock of coins by selling, I could reduce the risk by simply selling them to myself.  Of course I also want the BTC of whatever geeks I got involved in the stampede.  So putting quite a few bids in over some period of time would be the way to go.

I don't trade much or participate in any market manipulation, so maybe this is a big 'no shit' to the veterans?


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tvbcof
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April 11, 2013, 10:26:46 AM
 #4662

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/gold-vs-bitcoin/2013/04/10/

'The simple fact is that after a 13-year run, investors are selling. Spare me your central bank stories. The market doesn't care how you feel about monetary policy right now. Selling is contagious. And right now, it's getting close to a pandemic.Investors are selling gold ETFs at a record pace. Approximately 106 tonnes of bullion was dumped in February, according to CNNMoney. That's the biggest monthly sell-off ever. That's where your selling pressure is coming from — whether you like it or not.The gold cycle is turning. Avoid the ETFs and miners. If you own them, get out now. These will be the most vulnerable investments as the drop approaches.'

It would be delightful to me if PMs dropped a bunch (and there was physical availability) because I would rather take whatever profits I'm going to take out of Bitcoin straight into PMs rather than go through fiat.  And I don't like sitting on fiat.  Even better would be if a lot of private individuals got all worked up about Bitcoin so I could find willing trading partners for PMs and other things.


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April 11, 2013, 11:39:35 AM
 #4663

Gold beaten hard.

Bitcoin collapsing badly.

Nobody called the top this time...

Actually, Trace Mayer did in a 21 March 2013 article:

Quote
And greater confidence for VCs means higher Bitcoin prices. So where should the next target be? Well, given the fundamental state of the space as it currently is along with current growth rates therefore I think a fair value price for bitcoins is around 3-7 bitcoins per ounce of gold. It will be fun to watch the price melt-up to that over the short to medium term so get out the popcorn to watch this rocket.

$1560/$266=5.86

Right smack in the middle of 3-7 bitcoins per ounce of gold.

The current correction has taken it to about 10.2 bitcoins per ounce of gold. So expect a consolidation with a gradual closing of the ratio. This will probably be a combination of both an increase in the price of bitcoins and a decrease in the price of gold.

Zangelbert Bingledack
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April 11, 2013, 11:55:36 AM
 #4664

Gold beaten hard.

Bitcoin collapsing badly.

Nobody called the top this time...

Actually, Trace Mayer did in a 21 March 2013 article:

Quote
And greater confidence for VCs means higher Bitcoin prices. So where should the next target be? Well, given the fundamental state of the space as it currently is along with current growth rates therefore I think a fair value price for bitcoins is around 3-7 bitcoins per ounce of gold. It will be fun to watch the price melt-up to that over the short to medium term so get out the popcorn to watch this rocket.

$1560/$266=5.86

Right smack in the middle of 3-7 bitcoins per ounce of gold.

The current correction has taken it to about 10.2 bitcoins per ounce of gold. So expect a consolidation with a gradual closing of the ratio. This will probably be a combination of both an increase in the price of bitcoins and a decrease in the price of gold.

You forgot " Cool"

But in all seriousness it could fall quite a bit further before the butterfinger newbsteak coefficient falls down to early march levels again.
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April 11, 2013, 07:19:55 PM
 #4665

I'm wondering: Since you wrote about your concern regarding people levering their way to ride this run, don't you think this could have been prevented by not advertising potential gains like it was done?

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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April 12, 2013, 08:14:35 AM
 #4666

Gold beaten hard.

Bitcoin collapsing badly.

Nobody called the top this time...

Actually, Trace Mayer did in a 21 March 2013 article:

Quote
And greater confidence for VCs means higher Bitcoin prices. So where should the next target be? Well, given the fundamental state of the space as it currently is along with current growth rates therefore I think a fair value price for bitcoins is around 3-7 bitcoins per ounce of gold. It will be fun to watch the price melt-up to that over the short to medium term so get out the popcorn to watch this rocket.

$1560/$266=5.86

Right smack in the middle of 3-7 bitcoins per ounce of gold.

The current correction has taken it to about 10.2 bitcoins per ounce of gold. So expect a consolidation with a gradual closing of the ratio. This will probably be a combination of both an increase in the price of bitcoins and a decrease in the price of gold.


How did you arrive at 3-7 BTC / oz AU ?

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
wopwop
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April 12, 2013, 08:15:55 AM
 #4667

Gold beaten hard.

Bitcoin collapsing badly.

Nobody called the top this time...

Actually, Trace Mayer did in a 21 March 2013 article:

Quote
And greater confidence for VCs means higher Bitcoin prices. So where should the next target be? Well, given the fundamental state of the space as it currently is along with current growth rates therefore I think a fair value price for bitcoins is around 3-7 bitcoins per ounce of gold. It will be fun to watch the price melt-up to that over the short to medium term so get out the popcorn to watch this rocket.

$1560/$266=5.86

Right smack in the middle of 3-7 bitcoins per ounce of gold.

The current correction has taken it to about 10.2 bitcoins per ounce of gold. So expect a consolidation with a gradual closing of the ratio. This will probably be a combination of both an increase in the price of bitcoins and a decrease in the price of gold.


How did you arrive at 3-7 BTC / oz AU ?

thats about right for him to be able to buy a mansion
cypherdoc
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April 12, 2013, 02:00:06 PM
 #4668

Bitcoin may be having some temporary, short term problems but look at this huge long term problem:

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April 12, 2013, 02:07:38 PM
 #4669

Although its hard to do an update at this time, perhaps now is also when it is most valuable.

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, nasdaq=3055, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 71.90.  Gold is 1525.00.  Nasdaq is 3300.00
Bitcoin: 1231.48%
Gold:    -9.76%
Nasdaq:  8.02%
Gold Diff:  1376% advantage Bitcoin and Shrinking
Nasdaq Diff:  1133% advantage Bitcoin and Shrinking


This thread was started in the period of stability after first bubble popped.  If you had invested then, your investment has outperformed gold and stocks by over 10 times!  And if you had invested at the "bottom" (around $2) you would be looking at 20x returns!  In less then 2 years. 

Bitcoin is on an exponential adoption curve.  This is so exciting that it periodically gets ahead of itself.  Way ahead.  Don't beat yourself up for not selling near the top... if you had done so you would essentially have been simply taking that money from new investors, rather then due to a fundamental growth in Bitcoin.  I guess the consolation prize for feeling guilty is being rich :-).  But since you are reading a thread about gold, I'm guessing long term investment not trading is a major part of your strategy; don't lose sight of that now.

A thought for those who are showing a paper loss -- for those who bought during this bubble:  You have a decision.   You can sell and take a real loss, reducing your portfolio diversification, taking a position in an inflating currency, and losing any chance of taking advantage of the volatility next time.  Or you can keep your money in bitcoins, recognizing its significant volatility on top of exponential growth.  If you had bought at the very top of the last bubble you'd be up over 100% right now.  Or see this as a buying opportunity.  Personally I don't see the choice as difficult.

And finally, a note about the future... during the last bubble people really thought that it was "the end of bitcoin".  Today, there is that history to look back on.  And people will look back on it and make investment decisions accordingly.  This is clearly not the end; there is life after a bubble.  In fact the Bitcoin story is still just beginning.
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April 12, 2013, 02:20:56 PM
 #4670

i remember how exciting it was just to get over the "Diff: +1000" level.

when was that?  a mere month ago?
cypherdoc
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April 12, 2013, 02:28:15 PM
 #4671

gold and silver on HIGH ALERT.
cypherdoc
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April 12, 2013, 02:37:15 PM
 #4672

BOOM.
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April 12, 2013, 02:42:34 PM
 #4673

given what's happening with gold and silver, i strongly suggest that all you idiots who are dumping Bitcoin reverse yourselves and start buying.  

you won't get another chance.
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April 12, 2013, 02:44:51 PM
 #4674

my DZZ and ZSL are exploding. 

nice offset to the temporary drop in Bitcoin.
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April 12, 2013, 03:12:14 PM
 #4675

i believe there are 2 young men on this forum who owe me 1 BTC each?
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April 12, 2013, 03:41:23 PM
 #4676

Junior miners following suit:

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April 12, 2013, 04:02:43 PM
 #4677

buried somewhere deep in the bowels of this or the other gold thread i predicted this would happen to gold, ie, gov'ts and their central banks having to sell gold to raise cash:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/mario-draghi-orders-cyprus-sell-gold-cover-bailout-shortfall
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April 12, 2013, 04:23:27 PM
 #4678

buried somewhere deep in the bowels of this or the other gold thread i predicted this would happen to gold, ie, gov'ts and their central banks having to sell gold to raise cash:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/mario-draghi-orders-cyprus-sell-gold-cover-bailout-shortfall

http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-gold-inventories-collapse-by-largest-amount-on-record/

Sell all your gold everyone, the big money wants it cheap.

Do you think it's coincidence that gold gets downgraded and negative press a weeks before Cyprus have to hand theirs over? EU laughing all the way to the bank.
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April 12, 2013, 07:29:55 PM
 #4679

gold down $78.4 or -5%.

1487
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April 12, 2013, 07:31:31 PM
 #4680

buried somewhere deep in the bowels of this or the other gold thread i predicted this would happen to gold, ie, gov'ts and their central banks having to sell gold to raise cash:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/mario-draghi-orders-cyprus-sell-gold-cover-bailout-shortfall

http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-gold-inventories-collapse-by-largest-amount-on-record/

Sell all your gold everyone, the big money wants it cheap.

Do you think it's coincidence that gold gets downgraded and negative press a weeks before Cyprus have to hand theirs over? EU laughing all the way to the bank.

It's not just unstable countries like Cyprus. Northern European countries are (and have been for the last decades) dumping their gold like crazy to keep the socialistic systems afloat a little longer. it's not like they need anything but empty-promises to back our paper anymore.

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