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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1808264 times)
Vladimir
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March 26, 2013, 09:09:04 AM
 #4501

If you look at price of gold in real term i.e. taking inflation into consideration, then the picture is not too rosy, but yet not quite a collapse. At the same time this is a pair trade and therefore there is no expectation that both sides of the trade perform spectacularly.



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March 26, 2013, 09:41:09 AM
 #4502

If you look at price of gold in real term i.e. taking inflation into consideration, then the picture is not too rosy, but yet not quite a collapse. At the same time this is a pair trade and therefore there is no expectation that both sides of the trade perform spectacularly.




yes, I also see that and this is why I am charting always the BTC/Gold ratio and this is rallying like hell since the inception of BTC

perhaps this thread would be better called:

"Bitcoin outperforming Gold" 

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March 26, 2013, 09:52:54 AM
 #4503

If you look at price of gold in real term i.e. taking inflation into consideration, then the picture is not too rosy, but yet not quite a collapse. At the same time this is a pair trade and therefore there is no expectation that both sides of the trade perform spectacularly.




yes, I also see that and this is why I am charting always the BTC/Gold ratio and this is rallying like hell since the inception of BTC

perhaps this thread would be better called:

"Bitcoin outperforming Gold" 


Patience my friend.   Patience.
cypherdoc
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March 26, 2013, 02:00:12 PM
 #4504

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1363%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1369% advantage Bitcoin and Growing
rpietila
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March 26, 2013, 02:02:22 PM
 #4505

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1363%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1369% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

Sir, I appreciate your insight very much, but would it not be more appropriate to use "deltaB/deltaA - 1" as the formula? That gives +1456%.

cypherdoc
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March 26, 2013, 02:28:22 PM
 #4506

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1363%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1369% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

Sir, I appreciate your insight very much, but would it not be more appropriate to use "deltaB/deltaA - 1" as the formula? That gives +1456%.

no, i think i'm doing it correctly (79/5.4=14.63 subtract 1=13.63 or 1363%).  notme?

i'll admit it's clumsy and much more elegant to perform a simple ratio like BTC/gold but i'm maintaining this mainly out of tradition and the fact that it's way more fun to watch Bitcoin escalate/do a rocket shot past gold from a % standpoint.

it's much more grinding to the psyche  Wink
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March 26, 2013, 03:00:44 PM
 #4507

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1363%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1369% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

Sir, I appreciate your insight very much, but would it not be more appropriate to use "deltaB/deltaA - 1" as the formula? That gives +1456%.

no, i think i'm doing it correctly (79/5.4=14.63 subtract 1=13.63 or 1363%).  notme?

i'll admit it's clumsy and much more elegant to perform a simple ratio like BTC/gold but i'm maintaining this mainly out of tradition and the fact that it's way more fun to watch Bitcoin escalate/do a rocket shot past gold from a % standpoint.

it's much more grinding to the psyche  Wink

I mean the "advantage" is miscalculated to the downside. As long as gold is underperforming fiat, the difference is even more striking. If gold overperforms, then it is less than what you're leading us to believe. But this is your thread, do what you may. Smiley

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March 26, 2013, 03:29:16 PM
 #4508

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1363%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1369% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

Sir, I appreciate your insight very much, but would it not be more appropriate to use "deltaB/deltaA - 1" as the formula? That gives +1456%.

no, i think i'm doing it correctly (79/5.4=14.63 subtract 1=13.63 or 1363%).  notme?

i'll admit it's clumsy and much more elegant to perform a simple ratio like BTC/gold but i'm maintaining this mainly out of tradition and the fact that it's way more fun to watch Bitcoin escalate/do a rocket shot past gold from a % standpoint.

it's much more grinding to the psyche  Wink

I mean the "advantage" is miscalculated to the downside. As long as gold is underperforming fiat, the difference is even more striking. If gold overperforms, then it is less than what you're leading us to believe. But this is your thread, do what you may. Smiley

silverbox was the one who started this update and insisted on referencing the start of this thread's date.

since he's gone into hiding, i've had to pick up his slack and continue the tradition/calculation.
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March 26, 2013, 06:39:06 PM
 #4509


silverbox was the one who started this update and insisted on referencing the start of this thread's date.

since he's gone into hiding, i've had to pick up his slack and continue the tradition/calculation.

I, for one, appreciate the updates.  I've been slacking on my yearly ones both because they look bad (for PMs) and because I'm lazy.  But one silverbos-style report per day and sans the large text would probably suffice.

In other news, I am actually fairly surprised that gold is not doing better due to the Cyprus goings-on.  Oh well.  Bitcoin is definitely making up for it.


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March 26, 2013, 07:25:31 PM
 #4510

In other news, I am actually fairly surprised that gold is not doing better due to the Cyprus goings-on.  Oh well.  Bitcoin is definitely making up for it.

Don't be surprised...

I like to drive my Bitcoin Ferrari most of the time, but when I have to go off-road, I take one of the gold Humvees Smiley
cypherdoc
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March 26, 2013, 08:23:28 PM
 #4511

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1363%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1369% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

Sir, I appreciate your insight very much, but would it not be more appropriate to use "deltaB/deltaA - 1" as the formula? That gives +1456%.

no, i think i'm doing it correctly (79/5.4=14.63 subtract 1=13.63 or 1363%).  notme?

i'll admit it's clumsy and much more elegant to perform a simple ratio like BTC/gold but i'm maintaining this mainly out of tradition and the fact that it's way more fun to watch Bitcoin escalate/do a rocket shot past gold from a % standpoint.

it's much more grinding to the psyche  Wink

I mean the "advantage" is miscalculated to the downside. As long as gold is underperforming fiat, the difference is even more striking. If gold overperforms, then it is less than what you're leading us to believe. But this is your thread, do what you may. Smiley

the stats represent the race btwn gold and Bitcoin.  nvm fiat.
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March 27, 2013, 02:15:10 AM
 #4512

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1381%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1387% advantage Bitcoin and Growing
cypherdoc
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March 27, 2013, 02:19:39 AM
 #4513

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing
tvbcof
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March 27, 2013, 02:26:14 AM
 #4514

In other news, I am actually fairly surprised that gold is not doing better due to the Cyprus goings-on.  Oh well.  Bitcoin is definitely making up for it.

Don't be surprised...

I like to drive my Bitcoin Ferrari most of the time, but when I have to go off-road, I take one of the gold Humvees Smiley

I could do without the fancy ladies.  The novelty would wear off in a few nights leaving nothing but an expensive pain in the ass.

I would consider BTC to be the Ferrari for sure.  Or to my taste, the GP racebike.

Silver I would consider the Humvee, but a real one...not a fake useless piece of shit with stupid tires.  A real one can get to pretty amazing highs and lows pretty quickly.  But can get slammed by roadside bombs.

Gold I would consider to be a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead.  Expensive and useless most of the time, but when the chips are down it is the final word and there is no arguing with it.

* FWIW, I have direct hands-on experience with GP racebikes and real Humvee's.  Both are amazing pieces of equipment.

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March 27, 2013, 02:43:58 AM
 #4515

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

What prices did you use?  I didn't spend any time reasoning out your algorithm, but the algorithm below imagines you spent N on bitcoin and gold at the prices stated and then figures out the ratio between the worth of the 2 investments today.  Of course, "N" just falls out of the equation so I use "1"...  Even if you don't know python, you it should be possible to follow it:

def goldCollapsingBitcoinUP(PriceBitcoinToday,PriceGoldToday,N=1):
  goldAmt = N/1690.0
  goldValue = goldAmt*PriceGoldToday
  bitcoinValue = (N/5.4)*PriceBitcoinToday
  ratio = bitcoinValue / goldValue
  return ratio*100 # return percentage

cypherdoc, if you actually did jump into linux you can write "python" on the command line, then cut-paste this into the window.

Anyway, plugging in 81.75 and 1598.50 yields....

Diff:  +1600%



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March 27, 2013, 02:56:39 AM
 #4516

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold:

March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT.
March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU.

Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%.
thezerg
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March 27, 2013, 03:01:12 AM
 #4517

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold:

March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT.
March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU.

Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%.

I think this method is mathematically equivalent to mine posted just above... but can't be sure w/o your formula
dave111223
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March 27, 2013, 04:20:57 AM
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cypherdoc
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March 27, 2013, 05:02:55 AM
 #4519

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold:

March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT.
March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU.

Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%.

all i'm doing is comparing their individual appreciation rates against themselves and then each other since 3/13/12:

1.  gold:  1690 on 3/13/12 vs. today 1598 or 1598/1690=6% loss.
2.  Bitcoin:  5.4 on 3/13/12 vs. today 81 or 81/5.4=1400% gain.
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March 27, 2013, 05:32:07 AM
 #4520

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold:

March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT.
March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU.

Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%.

all i'm doing is comparing their individual appreciation rates against themselves and then each other since 3/13/12:

1.  gold:  1690 on 3/13/12 vs. today 1598 or 1598/1690=6% loss.
2.  Bitcoin:  5.4 on 3/13/12 vs. today 81 or 81/5.4=1400% gain.

Ya, well, ratios are generally not suitable for addition or subtraction.

Off the top of my head, I would say that a meaningful number could be had by taking the ratio of the ratio of both.  IOW something like: (auO/auN)/(btcO/btcN).  A quick check yields 1586% by my computations (after 'sudo apt-get install grpn').  A cross-check assuming that gold is flat yields 1500% which is the same as BTC alone (81/5.4), and that makes intuitive sense to me.


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