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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804665 times)
manfred
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April 26, 2013, 07:34:20 PM
 #4841

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The way I see things, fiat in its current state is dead. Gold is not, and has a major part to play in the transition. Movement toward crypto is a virtually guaranteed process with several critical variables.
+1, but Gold will be dead in 20 years time too (massive rise in the short/medium term, then slowly declining to about what silver is nowadays)
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April 26, 2013, 07:41:06 PM
 #4842

just called my local gold dealer and they're still only selling 1oz Krugs for a 4.1% premium.

miscreanity:  iz it tim yet?
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April 27, 2013, 01:33:23 AM
 #4843

this is my response to repentance from this thread on the Discussion forum:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=188589.msg1956128#msg1956128

stupid idea and not even possible given Bitcoin's design.

It's semi-possible.  Other currencies have an official exchange rate but are also used for speculation.  Likewise, precious metals have an "official" price but you can still trade them in a speculative manner.

If you believe that Bitcoin won't stabilise without "someone" doing "something" then you need to consider "who" and "what".  You also need to consider whether now is the appropriate time to try to stabilise Bitcoin.  Are there enough people wanting to use Bitcoin as a currency and enough ways to use it as a currency right now to justify trying to stabilise it or are we years away from it being viable as a currency?  

You can't just ignore the fact that many people view Bitcoin primarily as a means of increasing their net worth and it's not especially useful for that purpose if it becomes a stable currency.

If you drive out the speculators, is there enough momentum to sustain Bitcoin as a currency or have we not yet reached that critical mass?

its not possible given Bitcoin's fixed supply design. central to my argument is that the USD is the world's reserve currency and inflation starts with us.

you have to understand how the Chinese accomplish the peg in the first place and how it came about.  it originates in the US which has been struggling with stagnant growth for around 3 decades.  the Fed via Greenspan, with advice from guys like Larry Summers and Robert Rubin, got the bright idea to suppress interest rates via UST purchases with printed money.  this did stimulate growth as entities of all stripes borrowed cheaply, but at the expense of debt and huge speculation.  this speculative hot money was hoovered up by banks, hedge funds, corporations and speculators and was hauled off to emerging markets looking for growth plays.  realize this was well before China ever got onto the map of production.

given that the huge Chinese population was ripe for exploitation of cheap labor, this was the logical place to head.  as this USD tsunami started buying up Yuan to facilitate the mobilization of this labor force and build factories, naturally the Yuan had to go up in value.  but the Chinese elite and local manufacturers were not about to let the US corporations get away with this so they got their Central Bank and gov't to set a peg to the USD.  thus for every USD entering China, an equivalent Yuan was printed out of thin air to buy up those USD's and keep the yuan at a pegged, controlled albeit declining level.  in essence, as the Fed drove down the value of a USD, the yuan was driven down in lock step.  b/c of this devaluation, Chinese goods got very cheap and the local Chinese manufacturers (and US corporations and speculators) did very well as every other country came to buy up affordable goods.  note how this came at the expense of the average Chinese laborer whose purchasing power was eroded every step of the way.

the Chinese Central Bank then turned around and plowed all those USD's back into UST's creating even lower interest rates and perpetuating the virtuous circle of what primarily was USD inflation.  this is what they mean when they say the US exports its inflation. i have news for you; that inflation comes back to us in spades.  the Chinese CB also from time to time would perform "sterilization" operations where they would issue their own form of treasury bonds to mop up the excess yuan locally from all these exercises.  the problem now is everyone has too much debt on their hands and the interest payments are overwhelming true productivity.

thus you can see, imo, that the only way to keep Bitcoin's price at a level of say 100 is to print more Bitcoin, not manipulate the price via pulling USD's out of the Bitcoin market.  this is a backend problem (Bitcoin), not a frontend problem (USD), so to speak (that's if you view this as a problem at all).  the difficulty of trying to cap the price at the frontend by using USD inflows and outflows to Bitcoin is that there are just too many USD's floating around and being issued monthly at a clip of $85B/mo.  any manipulator trying to crash the Bitcoin price by selling will only be met with even more buyers with plenty of USD ammunition in the clip.

if you then try to attack this non-problem from the backend via issuing more Bitcoin, Bitcoin is no longer Bitcoin, and no one will follow your fork.  

thus, i believe Max's idea is a silly one that is impossible to accomplish.
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April 27, 2013, 02:07:44 AM
 #4844


note how this came at the expense of the average Chinese laborer whose purchasing power was eroded every step of the way.


This is of course only true under the assumption that foreign goods are readily available to common Chinese laborers, while in reality other limitations have already precluded this possibility.

In fact it's through the experience with such limitations that I came to realize Bitcoin's potential: the demand for oversea shopping is huge in China, yet up to this moment no single decent payment method exists to satisfy such demand.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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April 27, 2013, 02:58:53 AM
 #4845

...
thus, i believe Max's idea is a silly one that is impossible to accomplish.

Good grief.  The guy could say that the moon is made of green cheese and within hours there would be three pages of hyperventilation on this forum!

This would be utterly simple to do.  The Bitcoin Foundation issues a statement that says BTC valuations are pegged at $100/BTC.  Done.  As Max made pretty clear, I thought, it does not have anything to do with market price.  Among the wins, I could operate my books with a little more sanity.

Pretty much everything is 'fixed' these days.  Why not Bitcoin?  Unsurprisingly this went zipping right over the heads of most of the...um...'readers of this forum.'


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April 27, 2013, 04:24:43 AM
 #4846


This would be utterly simple to do.  The Bitcoin Foundation issues a statement that says BTC valuations are pegged at $100/BTC.  Done. 

huh?  please expound.
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April 27, 2013, 04:33:09 AM
 #4847


This would be utterly simple to do.  The Bitcoin Foundation issues a statement that says BTC valuations are pegged at $100/BTC.  Done. 

huh?  please expound.

Uhh lol

It's called the free market. This isn't the federal reserve system.

Bolded statement is an utter fail. Will never happen even unless everyone agrees (every bitcoin user) that it would have a price of such.

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April 27, 2013, 04:54:27 AM
 #4848


This would be utterly simple to do.  The Bitcoin Foundation issues a statement that says BTC valuations are pegged at $100/BTC.  Done. 

i hope you don't actually believe this. bitcoin can never be co-opted by any power (and try they will) as long as its users maintain autonomy -- if too many users are attracted by centralization (see mtgox) the entire purpose of the currency is undermined.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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April 27, 2013, 05:11:37 AM
 #4849

The most realistic way I can think of to roughly pegging the Bitcoin price is the Feds start printing greenbacks at a rate directly proportional to the Bitcoin creation rate, but if it were to happen....then we would have won already?  Huh

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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April 27, 2013, 05:20:43 AM
 #4850


This would be utterly simple to do.  The Bitcoin Foundation issues a statement that says BTC valuations are pegged at $100/BTC.  Done. 

huh?  please expound.

Uhh lol

It's called the free market. This isn't the federal reserve system.

Bolded statement is an utter fail. Will never happen even unless everyone agrees (every bitcoin user) that it would have a price of such.

I don't know how to be much more clear.

If I need to fill in a blank with the value of my BTC, I multiple the number of BTC I have by the peg set by the Bitcoin Foundation and enter that number in a box.

If I wish to buy BTC, I find someone who is selling them and pay what he is asking.

If I wish to sell BTC, I choose the price I want for my BTC and find someone who will pay that price.

In both cases, I do so on whatever exchange I can find.

If I wish to buy something from someone who will sell it to me for BTC, I find out how many BTC he/she wished for the item then send them to him/her.

I cannot go into a coin shop and demand the owner sell me a Krugerrand at the rate that LBMA says gold is worth.  Sometimes they guy wants more of a premium and sometimes less (and I've even had a dealer ask less then spot for junk silver.)  I see no reason why Bitcoin cannot be the same way.

You people seem mentally paralyzed by terminology.  To much Austrian school study maybe.  I dare say that some of you guys would benefit by another degree of freedom or two in your mental conceptions of the financial world.

BTW, did it ever occur to you that Max Keiser is a fucking Bitcoin Millionaire and it is pretty much inconceivable that he has anything but a keen understanding of the solution it order to get that way?  Lecturing him on limited supply flexibility of Bitcoin and how China engineers it's peg is LOL funny and pathetic at the same time.


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April 27, 2013, 05:23:25 AM
 #4851

The most realistic way I can think of to roughly pegging the Bitcoin price is the Feds start printing greenbacks at a rate directly proportional to the Bitcoin creation rate, but if it were to happen....then we would have won already?  Huh

That would not peg bitcoin to the dollar - it would peg the dollar to bitcoin.

And yes; at that point we win.

Dankedan: price seems low, time to sell I think...
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April 27, 2013, 05:46:34 AM
 #4852


This would be utterly simple to do.  The Bitcoin Foundation issues a statement that says BTC valuations are pegged at $100/BTC.  Done. 

huh?  please expound.

Uhh lol

It's called the free market. This isn't the federal reserve system.

Bolded statement is an utter fail. Will never happen even unless everyone agrees (every bitcoin user) that it would have a price of such.

I don't know how to be much more clear.

If I need to fill in a blank with the value of my BTC, I multiple the number of BTC I have by the peg set by the Bitcoin Foundation and enter that number in a box.

If I wish to buy BTC, I find someone who is selling them and pay what he is asking.

If I wish to sell BTC, I choose the price I want for my BTC and find someone who will pay that price.

In both cases, I do so on whatever exchange I can find.

If I wish to buy something from someone who will sell it to me for BTC, I find out how many BTC he/she wished for the item then send them to him/her.

I cannot go into a coin shop and demand the owner sell me a Krugerrand at the rate that LBMA says gold is worth.  Sometimes they guy wants more of a premium and sometimes less (and I've even had a dealer ask less then spot for junk silver.)  I see no reason why Bitcoin cannot be the same way.

You people seem mentally paralyzed by terminology.  To much Austrian school study maybe.  I dare say that some of you guys would benefit by another degree of freedom or two in your mental conceptions of the financial world.

BTW, did it ever occur to you that Max Keiser is a fucking Bitcoin Millionaire and it is pretty much inconceivable that he has anything but a keen understanding of the solution it order to get that way?  Lecturing him on limited supply flexibility of Bitcoin and how China engineers it's peg is LOL funny and pathetic at the same time.



Okay but pegging anything at a fixed price more often then not will net you a loss. Either due to no interest to buy at that price or people saying "okay you wanna sell btc at $100 when the exchange price is $1000, I'll buy your whole stash".

There is no upside to pegging it to a NUMBER.

Free Markets do not operate on the pegging of anything.

Bitcoin is a free market currency. Saying that someone could successfully peg bitcoin to a particular price and actually do well is likely not going to work in their favor.

EXAMPLE: My local coin shop will not sell silver less than $35 per ounce when the "SPOT" price is $23. So I don't buy from them I look else where. They can suck my cock before I ever buy at that price.

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April 27, 2013, 05:52:44 AM
 #4853


Okay but pegging anything at a fixed price more often then not will net you a loss. Either due to no interest to buy at that price or people saying "okay you wanna sell btc at $100 when the exchange price is $1000, I'll buy your whole stash".

...

EXAMPLE: My local coin shop will not sell silver less than $35 per ounce when the "SPOT" price is $23. So I don't buy from them I look else where. They can suck my cock before I ever buy at that price.

Let me try to clarify (again) using your example:

  YOU: "I'll buy your whole stash [for the Bitcoin Foundation's fix]."

  ME:  "Suck my cock."


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April 27, 2013, 05:56:39 AM
 #4854


Okay but pegging anything at a fixed price more often then not will net you a loss. Either due to no interest to buy at that price or people saying "okay you wanna sell btc at $100 when the exchange price is $1000, I'll buy your whole stash".

...

EXAMPLE: My local coin shop will not sell silver less than $35 per ounce when the "SPOT" price is $23. So I don't buy from them I look else where. They can suck my cock before I ever buy at that price.

Let me try to clarify (again) using your example:

  YOU: "I'll buy your whole stash [for the Bitcoin Foundation's fix]."

  ME:  "Suck my cock."



Yes and my point, there is no point on a fixed price...you will get burned more likely than not.

I still don't see your point. Yes people will sell at their own price. But making that price FIXED is UTTERLY STUPID.

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April 27, 2013, 06:02:01 AM
 #4855


This would be utterly simple to do.  The Bitcoin Foundation issues a statement that says BTC valuations are pegged at $100/BTC.  Done. 

huh?  please expound.

Uhh lol

It's called the free market. This isn't the federal reserve system.

Bolded statement is an utter fail. Will never happen even unless everyone agrees (every bitcoin user) that it would have a price of such.

I don't know how to be much more clear.

If I need to fill in a blank with the value of my BTC, I multiple the number of BTC I have by the peg set by the Bitcoin Foundation and enter that number in a box.

If I wish to buy BTC, I find someone who is selling them and pay what he is asking.

If I wish to sell BTC, I choose the price I want for my BTC and find someone who will pay that price.

In both cases, I do so on whatever exchange I can find.

If I wish to buy something from someone who will sell it to me for BTC, I find out how many BTC he/she wished for the item then send them to him/her.

I cannot go into a coin shop and demand the owner sell me a Krugerrand at the rate that LBMA says gold is worth.  Sometimes they guy wants more of a premium and sometimes less (and I've even had a dealer ask less then spot for junk silver.)  I see no reason why Bitcoin cannot be the same way.

You people seem mentally paralyzed by terminology.  To much Austrian school study maybe.  I dare say that some of you guys would benefit by another degree of freedom or two in your mental conceptions of the financial world.

BTW, did it ever occur to you that Max Keiser is a fucking Bitcoin Millionaire and it is pretty much inconceivable that he has anything but a keen understanding of the solution it order to get that way?  Lecturing him on limited supply flexibility of Bitcoin and how China engineers it's peg is LOL funny and pathetic at the same time.



look you raving idiot, do you even understand what you're talking about?  you've said you don't trade so i'll forgive your clear ignorance in forex matters so let me explain.

despite the Chinese pegging the yuan, both the USD and the yuan are still traded on foreign exchanges and succumb to market price pressures.  the Chinese have to follow those prices and print enough yuan to keep the peg.

and you think Keiser is something special just b/c he's a BTC millionaire?  alot of ppl around here fill that bill and "got it" much sooner than he.
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April 27, 2013, 06:08:49 AM
 #4856


Okay but pegging anything at a fixed price more often then not will net you a loss. Either due to no interest to buy at that price or people saying "okay you wanna sell btc at $100 when the exchange price is $1000, I'll buy your whole stash".

...

EXAMPLE: My local coin shop will not sell silver less than $35 per ounce when the "SPOT" price is $23. So I don't buy from them I look else where. They can suck my cock before I ever buy at that price.

Let me try to clarify (again) using your example:

  YOU: "I'll buy your whole stash [for the Bitcoin Foundation's fix]."

  ME:  "Suck my cock."



Yes and my point, there is no point on a fixed price...you will get burned more likely than not.

I still don't see your point. Yes people will sell at their own price. But making that price FIXED is UTTERLY STUID.

Not really.  It gives me an 'official' number I can use when I feel compelled to do so and when it serves my interest.

In the same general vein, and as Max points out, it de-couples the exchanges as formal market makers and isolates them from certain hassles that they otherwise might have to deal with.

The 'fix' would likely have little to do with real-world market values, but that is not the goal.  If the Bitcoin Foundation found it of interest to try to mark to market, fine.  If not, that's fine too.  This is just a reflection of every other market in our modern financial system and they all work about the same.


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April 27, 2013, 06:11:41 AM
 #4857

...
and you think Keiser is something special just b/c he's a BTC millionaire?  alot of ppl around here fill that bill and "got it" much sooner than he.

So you are on the record as believing that Max Keiser does not understand that Bitcoin supply is limited and cannot be printed.  Is that correct?


cypherdoc
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April 27, 2013, 06:14:56 AM
 #4858


Okay but pegging anything at a fixed price more often then not will net you a loss. Either due to no interest to buy at that price or people saying "okay you wanna sell btc at $100 when the exchange price is $1000, I'll buy your whole stash".

...

EXAMPLE: My local coin shop will not sell silver less than $35 per ounce when the "SPOT" price is $23. So I don't buy from them I look else where. They can suck my cock before I ever buy at that price.

Let me try to clarify (again) using your example:

  YOU: "I'll buy your whole stash [for the Bitcoin Foundation's fix]."

  ME:  "Suck my cock."



Yes and my point, there is no point on a fixed price...you will get burned more likely than not.

I still don't see your point. Yes people will sell at their own price. But making that price FIXED is UTTERLY STUID.

Not really.  It gives me an 'official' number I can use when I feel compelled to do so and when it serves my interest.

In the same general vein, and as Max points out, it de-couples the exchanges as formal market makers and isolates them from certain hassles that they otherwise might have to deal with.

The 'fix' would likely have little to do with real-world market values, but that is not the goal.  If the Bitcoin Foundation found it of interest to try to mark to market, fine.  If not, that's fine too.  This is just a reflection of every other market in our modern financial system and they all work about the same.



the Bitcoin Foundation is not the same as the Comex or LBMA.  there's actual trading going on at the latter.  no one can just "state" or "fix" a price.  and if they tried, the feds won't buy it.

the way i read his article, i think Max was serious.
oakpacific
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April 27, 2013, 06:15:19 AM
 #4859


Okay but pegging anything at a fixed price more often then not will net you a loss. Either due to no interest to buy at that price or people saying "okay you wanna sell btc at $100 when the exchange price is $1000, I'll buy your whole stash".

...

EXAMPLE: My local coin shop will not sell silver less than $35 per ounce when the "SPOT" price is $23. So I don't buy from them I look else where. They can suck my cock before I ever buy at that price.

Let me try to clarify (again) using your example:

  YOU: "I'll buy your whole stash [for the Bitcoin Foundation's fix]."

  ME:  "Suck my cock."



Yes and my point, there is no point on a fixed price...you will get burned more likely than not.

I still don't see your point. Yes people will sell at their own price. But making that price FIXED is UTTERLY STUID.

Not really.  It gives me an 'official' number I can use when I feel compelled to do so and when it serves my interest.

In the same general vein, and as Max points out, it de-couples the exchanges as formal market makers and isolates them from certain hassles that they otherwise might have to deal with.

The 'fix' would likely have little to do with real-world market values, but that is not the goal.  If the Bitcoin Foundation found it of interest to try to mark to market, fine.  If not, that's fine too.  This is just a reflection of every other market in our modern financial system and they all work about the same.


An 'official' number is useless, speculators wield way much more power than some of those here would believe.

If a bunch of sheepish bitcoiners start to cautiously follow bitcoin foundation's recommendation on buying/selling, they will soon be overwhelmed by a sudden inlfow of fiats/bitcoins.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
cypherdoc
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April 27, 2013, 06:18:09 AM
 #4860

...
and you think Keiser is something special just b/c he's a BTC millionaire?  alot of ppl around here fill that bill and "got it" much sooner than he.

So you are on the record as believing that Max Keiser does not understand that Bitcoin supply is limited and cannot be printed.  Is that correct?



never said that.  those are simple principles that anyone can understand.  but he still thinks crytology=crytography.
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