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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1803795 times)
Erdogan
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October 13, 2013, 02:25:12 AM
 #5781

Gold is not going up. It's the dollar that's losing value.

If anything in the marketplace should be the yardstick of value, it is gold, not USD. So you should price USD in terms of gold and you will see a very different picture. Don't let the "upward run" of gold deceive you. Gold isn't changing, the dollars are.
Are you kidding me? The gains in Gold the last 10 yrs or so reflect much more than just the inflation, it’s a speculative bubble.


Maybe there is some speculation, but the price collapse is not a bubble popping so much as it is an engineered event.

I have to agree with Blitz­  on this one.

their no doubt that gold has been victim of speculation.
If the dollar has lost so much value, why is it virtually all other commodities have not skyrocketed like gold?
sure everything has gotten more expensive in the past ten years, but nothing like gold.
gold price shooting up should be viewed as people predicting/speculating the dollar will fall in value.
gold was hyped to no end.... look around you see buy gold buy gold everywhere.
gold has priced in the next 10 years worth of inflation.

It appears that gold is pricing in anticipated deflation. Which would be inevitable in the event of a reversal in the trend of U.S. borrowing.

the FED will keep up QE to keep interest rates low, forever, this has nothing to do with government spending

deflation is not an option.

gold corrected is correcting a bubble

just wait till gold starts to price in BITCOIN!  Grin

Remember, the Fed is not just the Fed.

Through liquidity swaps their tendrils extend throughout the global banking systems. In the event the U.S. debt loads become insufficient to ensure the growth of the balance sheets the CBs will have to find another sink for that debt load if they want to stay in control. Most likely this will be for development projects in Sub-Saharan Africa.

And it will probably take some wars to get those deals done.

I agree with chodpaba and would like to add:

The Fed thinks that they have control, but they are just looking at some statistics without reasoning. This is how deflation could pan out: The market prices the treasury bonds partly on inflation expectation and partly on risk. When the market perceives a higher risk, the interest rate on bonds will go up, and so will the general interest rate in the economy. The response to that will be reduced demand for credit. Since credit is part of the money supply (the main part), this is effectively a reduction of the money supply (money deflation) and will utltimately lead to price deflation of goods and services.

Loss of credit was the essence of the 2008 financial crisis, which was met with grand credit creation. Next time, this may not work. Why? Because currently the Fed buys most of the bonds, and the may have to buy them all next time.

At that point, they will start the physical dollar presses. But the pace of physical dollar printing can not match the current credit creation. New, larger bills will have to be created and produced. In the mean time we will have deflation. I don't doubt that they will manage to print enough in the end.

Of course, we have politician and central banker individuals in the mix, ant they might decide to to a u-turn, define a new backed currency or whatever. But deflation is certainly a possibility.
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manfred
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October 13, 2013, 09:49:44 AM
 #5782

That gold and debt chart is since 2000. Anyone have one for the last 100 years?
There is a rough homemade chart, no guaranty for its accuracy. Hope it helps in a way.
Gold was $ 430 in beginning of 1915. $ 430 was a lot of money at that time (Average car was $490 and yearly wage $600).

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October 13, 2013, 10:18:54 AM
 #5783

1 ozt gold is very close to 10BTC at the moment, so that is the nominal value we are putting on the Gold Bitcoin Specie pieces.
The QR will give the current spot market value as it changes across the years in most currencies.

Yes. I tend to think in the next 12 months we will see that gap close between BTC and GOLD.

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NewLiberty
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October 13, 2013, 01:25:07 PM
 #5784

That gold and debt chart is since 2000. Anyone have one for the last 100 years?
There is a rough homemade chart, no guaranty for its accuracy. Hope it helps in a way.
Gold was $ 430 in beginning of 1915. $ 430 was a lot of money at that time (Average car was $490 and yearly wage $600).


That chart is not the chart sought as it is a ratio (inflation adjusted) rather than absolute. Gold was never $430 in 1915, as Goat correctly points out, it was about US$20-21 up until 1930



The gold price in dollars follows the debt limit very closely for movement over the last 100 years.  During much of the earlier years there were a couple different types of gold standards, so that gold/dollar were pegged to each other and the line was pretty flat for both debt and gold price during that earlier period.

This is why the current manipulation stands out as a sore thumb, both in the scale, and the rationale.  
Gold price is being pushed to accomplish some particular and finite policy, political, and logistical goals.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
cypherdoc
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October 13, 2013, 10:16:48 PM
 #5785

only 5 days in Bitcoin history where the price was higher than now.

Gold down.  Bitcoin UP.
Odalv
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October 13, 2013, 10:27:44 PM
 #5786

only 5 days in Bitcoin history where the price was higher than now.

Gold down.  Bitcoin UP.

I can see more days at least twice as more.
cypherdoc
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October 13, 2013, 10:37:09 PM
 #5787

time for an update zerg!
cypherdoc
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October 14, 2013, 02:20:32 AM
 #5788

only 5 days in Bitcoin history where the price was higher than now.

Gold down.  Bitcoin UP.

I can see more days at least twice as more.

Dont use the gox price.

lol, maybe we should use BTCChina.  go China go!
oakpacific
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October 14, 2013, 02:36:28 AM
 #5789

It ain't it until people/govs start dumping US treasuries.

Will it default?

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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October 14, 2013, 02:44:52 AM
 #5790

only 5 days in Bitcoin history where the price was higher than now.

Gold down.  Bitcoin UP.

I can see more days at least twice as more.

Dont use the gox price.

lol, maybe we should use BTCChina.  go China go!

Against all odds, we are actually the only country(maybe also Russia but I am not sure) in the world where you can trade bitcoins online without subjecting yourself to the whim of the banks....for the moment.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
cypherdoc
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October 14, 2013, 02:47:01 AM
 #5791

only 5 days in Bitcoin history where the price was higher than now.

Gold down.  Bitcoin UP.

I can see more days at least twice as more.

Dont use the gox price.

lol, maybe we should use BTCChina.  go China go!

Against all odds, we are actually the only country(maybe also Russia but I am not sure) in the world where you can trade bitcoins online without subjecting yourself to the whim of the banks....for the moment.

we love you guys.
cypherdoc
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October 14, 2013, 02:55:35 AM
 #5792

It ain't it until people/govs start dumping US treasuries.

Will it default?

that's a good question.  look here at the 3 mo T-Bill which is a cash-like equivalent.  that's a 2000% increase in interest rate off the bottom:

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October 14, 2013, 02:58:36 AM
 #5793

It ain't it until people/govs start dumping US treasuries.

Will it default?

that's a good question.  look here at the 3 mo T-Bill which is a cash-like equivalent.  that's a 2000% increase in interest rate off the bottom:



Yea, my bet is on that default will not happen this time, but Congress ain't figure it out until a few days before the deadline, enough to give people's confidence a shake.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
BitcoinAshley
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October 14, 2013, 03:06:32 AM
 #5794

It's interesting because in '11-'12 there were multiple occasions in which the "last minute deal" saved the day. But in '13 there have been two expectations of last-minute deals that didn't pan out: Sequester and "Shutdown." OTOH, they do seem to be "weaning" the market to trade on fundamentals even less than they have been. There's been some back-and-forth. For instance, months after the noteworthy not-last-minute-deal sequester, there was the classic UNtaper announcement (didn't surprise me.) So these not-last-minute-deals and this un-taper were perhaps ways to shake the market just a little bit to get it used to "things to come."

So I wouldn't be surprised if there was a "last minute deal" for the default that broke the 2013 trend of "expected last minute deal not reached." Remember the only thing that's even remotely important these days is ATHs in the stock market despite poor economic data.
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October 14, 2013, 03:14:24 AM
 #5795

It's interesting because in '11-'12 there were multiple occasions in which the "last minute deal" saved the day. But in '13 there have been two expectations of last-minute deals that didn't pan out: Sequester and "Shutdown." OTOH, they do seem to be "weaning" the market to trade on fundamentals even less than they have been. There's been some back-and-forth. For instance, months after the noteworthy not-last-minute-deal sequester, there was the classic UNtaper announcement (didn't surprise me.) So these not-last-minute-deals and this un-taper were perhaps ways to shake the market just a little bit to get it used to "things to come."

So I wouldn't be surprised if there was a "last minute deal" for the default that broke the 2013 trend of "expected last minute deal not reached." Remember the only thing that's even remotely important these days is ATHs in the stock market despite poor economic data.

A US government default will wake a lot of people who would never dream of entering the stock market up from their slumbers, the whole modern world was built around the faith in the U.S.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
Bitobsessed
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October 14, 2013, 03:24:19 AM
 #5796

It ain't it until people/govs start dumping US treasuries.

Will it default?

that's a good question.  look here at the 3 mo T-Bill which is a cash-like equivalent.  that's a 2000% increase in interest rate off the bottom:



Yea, my bet is on that default will not happen this time, but Congress ain't figure it out until a few days before the deadline, enough to give people's confidence a shake.
I think the default is inevitable because people think it cannot happen.  This is going to be interesting.
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October 14, 2013, 03:49:35 AM
 #5797

in the words of Chamath Palihapitiya, "this thing is gonna rip!"

that's almost as good as some of my memes  Wink

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nUB1LfUzLI
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October 14, 2013, 03:57:08 AM
 #5798

only 4 days in BTC history where the price closed higher than now.

Gold down.  Bitcoin UP.
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October 14, 2013, 03:58:23 AM
 #5799

If you count daily highs (we haven't closed today at this level yet), seven days: April 7th-11th, April 24th, April 25th.
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October 14, 2013, 04:05:54 AM
 #5800

The way I see it, when the USD finally implodes, it will ripple across every fiat currency on the globe. Any fiat that isn't back by something other than hot air is going to become worthless.

This is probably why China and Russia are stockpiling gold, and why Germany is trying to repatriate their reserves.

And when Joe Plumber finally sees the scheme for what it is, there will be a mad rush for supplies, and somewhere to shelter their remaining wealth from the infinite inflation, but by this time there will be no gold OR silver at any of the corner store bullion traders.

Bitcoin could fill this void very conveniently, on the condition that everyone has an internet connection.

Without an online connection, bitcoins are useless, and this is the only reason I'd suggest precious metals as a hedge.

"But greed is the only snake that cannot be charmed"
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