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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1808105 times)
cypherdoc
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January 29, 2013, 02:48:25 PM
 #4081

Bitcoin is not an experiment.   It is a living organism - much like a virus.   It mutates.
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thezerg
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January 29, 2013, 02:57:34 PM
 #4082

I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

Do you have evidence of its use as a settlement currency?

Nothing I would like to share publicly besides stuff that is already public like MPEx.

Yeah, I figured you would not be able to discuss this, but I had to try! 

I'm getting pretty excited about the increase in volume in China (http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/btcnCNY#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gVolzcv) -- even before bitcoin is used by consumers, it will be a great way for businesses to pay for goods.  There's a lot more value-per-effort in a supplier relationship then in a single one-off ebay purchase.

The geeks fail to understand that which they hath created .

Cypherdoc, I know you love the sound of this idea, but its just not true.  That's in fact the problem right now.  A lot more geeks then normal people understand Satoshi's paper, understand the byzantine general's problem, p2p, etc.  Everyone else says "but what if...".  And its reflected in the # of geeks on the forums.


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January 29, 2013, 03:03:07 PM
 #4083

I don't know if that's what Cypherdoc meant, but there's not that much geeks who understand the economic implications of bitcoin.
Understanding the technicalities is fine, but bitcoin wasn't created to be a neat technical toy for nerds.

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January 29, 2013, 03:08:38 PM
 #4084

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

Without breaking anonymity, you can't. The market simply feels different from my perspective, having been observing it for over two years. Watching the magnitude of the moves, reactions to them, general sentiment in forum and blog discussion, handling of news by media, etc. all point to widespread indications of growth - still early, but it's like waking from a deep sleep and getting reoriented.

Again, from my view (and I suspect others - cypher, Trace, Turk...)

I have the same feeling but I could've never come up with this awesome image miscreanity has come up with (bold above).

Just wait 'til bitcoin gets its first foot on the ground and the world stops spinning.

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January 29, 2013, 03:38:42 PM
 #4085

I don't know if that's what Cypherdoc meant, but there's not that much geeks who understand the economic implications of bitcoin.
Understanding the technicalities is fine, but bitcoin wasn't created to be a neat technical toy for nerds.


+1
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January 29, 2013, 03:54:32 PM
 #4086

I don't know if that's what Cypherdoc meant, but there's not that much geeks who understand the economic implications of bitcoin.
Understanding the technicalities is fine, but bitcoin wasn't created to be a neat technical toy for nerds.


+1

And thank god, there'd be that much less money to be made (individually) if there were more market-savvy geeks

...مكتوب
Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
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January 29, 2013, 04:00:07 PM
 #4087

I don't know if that's what Cypherdoc meant, but there's not that much geeks who understand the economic implications of bitcoin.
Understanding the technicalities is fine, but bitcoin wasn't created to be a neat technical toy for nerds.


+1

Really?  What's the source for your assertion that "there's not that much geeks who understand the economic implications of bitcoin"?  

I think its a lot easier for a geek to understand economics (to the degree needed to appreciate bitcoin) then for an economist to understand this software.  

For example, there are famous geeks that endorse bitcoin (RMS for example), but all I've heard from famous economists is misinformation.  Heck, even many goldbug economists dismiss it.  And what are the first companies to accept bitcoin?  The Economist (magazine)?  Wall Street Journal?  Or Wordpress, VPS providers, etc?  I have no concrete data, but the density of engineers on bitcointalk seems much greater then on reddit (as a representative example).  The FSF accepts bitcoins, the EFF does not.  Everywhere you look its the geeks that are driving this tech.

But don't get me wrong, its great that guys like Cypher, Trace, Erik etc. are on board to translate this into language that other disciplines/other people can understand.

Let me leave you with this last thought:  Technology has been responsible for 50% of economic growth since WWII.  So if anyone is holding a crystal ball -- is able to predict market successes -- its the geeks...


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January 29, 2013, 04:01:06 PM
 #4088

The geeks fail to understand that which they hath created .

another way to look at this is that if you, as a geek, ask the first 49 ppl on the street if they'd ever heard of Bitcoin, they'd all probably say no.  on the 50th person, they might say "oh yeah, that's that crazy internet currency of the geeks, right?".

you be so ecstatic that you finally found someone who'd heard of Bitcoin you'd most likely just say "Yes, yes, that's right!!!" and then launch into a discussion about all the great features of Bitcoin.  all the while knowing that you don't want to complicate the discussion by correcting that person to the fact that some mysterious "Satoshi Nakamoto" actually invented it.

but you'd be wrong b/c most geeks don't understand the economic implications of Bitcoin and most geeks certainly did not create it.
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January 29, 2013, 04:19:57 PM
 #4089

The geeks fail to understand that which they hath created .

another way to look at this is that if you, as a geek, ask the first 49 ppl on the street if they'd ever heard of Bitcoin, they'd all probably say no.  on the 50th person, they might say "oh yeah, that's that crazy internet currency of the geeks, right?".

you be so ecstatic that you finally found someone who'd heard of Bitcoin you'd most likely just say "Yes, yes, that's right!!!" and then launch into a discussion about all the great features of Bitcoin.  all the while knowing that you don't want to complicate the discussion by correcting that person to the fact that some mysterious "Satoshi Nakamoto" actually invented it.

but you'd be wrong b/c most geeks don't understand the economic implications of Bitcoin and most geeks certainly did not create it.

I never said "most geeks" -- well anyway I don't think I did :-).  Regardless your argument is reducto ad absurdum -- "most" of any group don't understand any sufficiently complex thing.  And obviously "most" of the geeks did not create any one thing -- there are too many of us. 

So obviously I meant something else.  Something more like (not going to waste the time to quote myself formally):

I think its a lot easier for a geek to understand economics (to the degree needed to appreciate bitcoin) then for an economist to understand this software. 


Also you say "fail to understand that which THEY hath created".  Emphasis added.

I think that the particular geek(s) that created bitcoin understood its economic implications.  That's why the genesis block is dated "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks".

And I think that more geeks understand its implications then others which is why so many geeks are on this forum.  So your statement fails on multiple levels.

Anyway, its not important enough to pursue this further...
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January 29, 2013, 04:30:46 PM
 #4090

The geeks fail to understand that which they hath created .

another way to look at this is that if you, as a geek, ask the first 49 ppl on the street if they'd ever heard of Bitcoin, they'd all probably say no.  on the 50th person, they might say "oh yeah, that's that crazy internet currency of the geeks, right?".

you be so ecstatic that you finally found someone who'd heard of Bitcoin you'd most likely just say "Yes, yes, that's right!!!" and then launch into a discussion about all the great features of Bitcoin.  all the while knowing that you don't want to complicate the discussion by correcting that person to the fact that some mysterious "Satoshi Nakamoto" actually invented it.

but you'd be wrong b/c most geeks don't understand the economic implications of Bitcoin and most geeks certainly did not create it.

I never said "most geeks" -- well anyway I don't think I did :-).  Regardless your argument is reducto ad absurdum -- "most" of any group don't understand any sufficiently complex thing.  And obviously "most" of the geeks did not create any one thing -- there are too many of us.  

So obviously I meant something else.  Something more like (not going to waste the time to quote myself formally):

I think its a lot easier for a geek to understand economics (to the degree needed to appreciate bitcoin) then for an economist to understand this software.  


Also you say "fail to understand that which THEY hath created".  Emphasis added.

I think that the particular geek(s) that created bitcoin understood its economic implications.  That's why the genesis block is dated "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks".

And I think that more geeks understand its implications then others which is why so many geeks are on this forum.  So your statement fails on multiple levels.

Anyway, its not important enough to pursue this further...

of course my statement is riddled with contradictions.  purposely so.  of course it doesn't apply to all geeks and of course THEY didn't create it.

but i guess i'm being a bit critical b/c i've been around longer than you (if posts are any indication) and i remember that virtually all the geeks on this forum turned on me during the depths of the Bitcoin Depression in late 2011 for being a "speculator" and thus "ruining the Bitcoin economy" and for being a "bull".  just look at that Short Squeeze thread i keep linking to.  

it seems that as long as the price keeps going up, the geeks get it.  but when the price goes down, they don't.  and of course, i'm generalizing.
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January 29, 2013, 04:42:24 PM
 #4091

zerg:  

i guess what i'm trying to do is poke you guys now and toughen the geeks up.  b/c there will come a time for a downturn which some of us will recognize as temporary but most of us will not.  and i want you all to think and understand Bitcoin NOW, before it happens.

alas, i'm sure my efforts will fail once again, as when the downturn starts you will see most geeks turn and run.
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January 29, 2013, 04:47:10 PM
 #4092

The geeks fail to understand that which they hath created .

another way to look at this is that if you, as a geek, ask the first 49 ppl on the street if they'd ever heard of Bitcoin, they'd all probably say no.  on the 50th person, they might say "oh yeah, that's that crazy internet currency of the geeks, right?".

you be so ecstatic that you finally found someone who'd heard of Bitcoin you'd most likely just say "Yes, yes, that's right!!!" and then launch into a discussion about all the great features of Bitcoin.  all the while knowing that you don't want to complicate the discussion by correcting that person to the fact that some mysterious "Satoshi Nakamoto" actually invented it.

but you'd be wrong b/c most geeks don't understand the economic implications of Bitcoin and most geeks certainly did not create it.

I never said "most geeks" -- well anyway I don't think I did :-).  Regardless your argument is reducto ad absurdum -- "most" of any group don't understand any sufficiently complex thing.  And obviously "most" of the geeks did not create any one thing -- there are too many of us.  

So obviously I meant something else.  Something more like (not going to waste the time to quote myself formally):

I think its a lot easier for a geek to understand economics (to the degree needed to appreciate bitcoin) then for an economist to understand this software.  


Also you say "fail to understand that which THEY hath created".  Emphasis added.

I think that the particular geek(s) that created bitcoin understood its economic implications.  That's why the genesis block is dated "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks".

And I think that more geeks understand its implications then others which is why so many geeks are on this forum.  So your statement fails on multiple levels.

Anyway, its not important enough to pursue this further...

of course my statement is riddled with contradictions.  purposely so.  of course it doesn't apply to all geeks and of course THEY didn't create it.

but i guess i'm being a bit critical b/c i've been around longer than you (if posts are any indication) and i remember that virtually all the geeks on this forum turned on me during the depths of the Bitcoin Depression in late 2011 for being a "speculator" and thus "ruining the Bitcoin economy" and for being a "bull".  just look at that Short Squeeze thread i keep linking to.  

it seems that as long as the price keeps going up, the geeks get it.  but when the price goes down, they don't.  and of course, i'm generalizing.

Price goes up the Geeks say "YAY!".

Price goes down the Geeks go "WHY?   Cry Cry Cry".

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thezerg
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January 29, 2013, 06:20:31 PM
 #4093

Yeah smoothie, that's exactly right.  I think that most geeks can't conceive of why this technology (or a hundred others) isn't instantly awesomely everywhere.  So when the price drops it is inconceivable.

Cypher, you are entirely right, and no, I don't think you'll manage to convince too many of them.  Not sure if you can squeeze the whine out of a geek :-).

Me, I've been pretty successful with doubling-down.  But I'm terrible at calling the top.
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January 29, 2013, 06:35:07 PM
 #4094

Me, I've been pretty successful with doubling-down.  But I'm terrible at calling the top.

I think that skill will only come with time and experience. I'm twenty, when I first entered the market I had no exposure to cycle theory or event economics, but I've definitely matured as a trader (since I have better control over panic buyig or selling). I'm sure cypherdoc didn't get to where he was in just a few years, but rather decades of watching the markets combined with a studious perspective towards technical analysis and a better understanding of ones own fear and greed reactions and extrapolating that to others, some who may be more rigid or some of who may be less disciplined; ruminating in a hybrid of top down AND bottom up psychological perspective

...مكتوب
Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
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January 29, 2013, 06:59:16 PM
 #4095

Me, I've been pretty successful with doubling-down.  But I'm terrible at calling the top.

I think that skill will only come with time and experience. I'm twenty, when I first entered the market I had no exposure to cycle theory or event economics, but I've definitely matured as a trader (since I have better control over panic buyig or selling). I'm sure cypherdoc didn't get to where he was in just a few years, but rather decades of watching the markets combined with a studious perspective towards technical analysis and a better understanding of ones own fear and greed reactions and extrapolating that to others, some who may be more rigid or some of who may be less disciplined; ruminating in a hybrid of top down AND bottom up psychological perspective

this is one of my favorite posts from back in the Depression:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49745.msg595430#msg595430
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January 29, 2013, 07:14:28 PM
 #4096

The geeks fail to understand that which they hath created .

I'l just leave this here...

http://www.rugatu.com/questions/6661/funny-meme-required

BTCitcoin: An Idea Worth Saving - Q&A with bitcoins on rugatu.com - Check my rep
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January 29, 2013, 08:24:07 PM
 #4097

It is a living organism - much like a virus.

More than that, it creates a foundation (along with other distributed networks) for something much greater than a new financial system Smiley

I think that almost nobody will realize when it happens, at least not right away. The shift will probably be too subtle, seeming like an incremental advance rather than a monumental change.
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January 30, 2013, 03:43:40 AM
 #4098

hmmmm.  it's starting:

http://www.reddit.com/tb/17jgl8
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January 30, 2013, 06:30:22 PM
 #4099

But then, suddenly, they ceased to appreciate, Lira says, because “the markets collectively realized that the counterparties to those CDS contracts might not be able to pay up.”  This, Lira asserts, is exactly what is occurring in gold, as paper certificates have come to greatly exceed the supply of ingots held in vaults. The result, he says, is that “the global precious metals markets are essentially a game of musical chairs, with far fewer seats than players—far less gold than gold holders. And market participants collectively know this. Which is why they don’t trust their counterparties. Which is why gold isn’t rising like a shot.”

...مكتوب
Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
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January 30, 2013, 09:09:52 PM
 #4100

hmmmm.  it's starting:

http://www.reddit.com/tb/17jgl8

Looks like Jeff got a package  http://garzikrants.blogspot.com/2013/01/once-upon-time-in-china-package-shipped.html
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