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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807835 times)
cypherdoc
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March 27, 2013, 11:04:42 AM
 #4521

Gold down.  Bitcoin UP.
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March 27, 2013, 11:11:36 AM
 #4522

Gold down.  Bitcoin UP.

Surprise, surprise!

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March 27, 2013, 11:16:37 AM
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Gold down.  Bitcoin UP.

Surprise, surprise!

I just feel this need to remind everybody, especially the ____ Bugs. Wink
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March 27, 2013, 11:35:45 AM
 #4524

And probably more importantly, I hear italy's bond auction didn't go so well. I wonder why?

Dow futures don't seem to like it.
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March 27, 2013, 11:43:27 AM
 #4525

so I absolutely sucked at trading and being lucky, but I am now vastly in black. What does that tell us? Every sucker can get his fair share of opportunity, if you let it slipped by you can only blame yourself.

Being invested the right way in the right long-term secular trend will hide a multitude of trading errors.

Bitcoin has been the trade of the decade and very well could become the trade of the century or even of all time in the history of humanity. Remember, Bitcoin is a sterile asset so any rise in the Bitcoin price merely represents a transfer of wealth from some other assets to the holders of Bitcoin.

As the Great Credit Contraction continues capital will seek safe and liquid assets by burrowing down the liquidity pyramid.





So am I right in saying that the Dow's new high is caused by capitals from the highest two levels of this inverted pyramid flowing into U.S stocks?

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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March 27, 2013, 12:08:14 PM
 #4526

so I absolutely sucked at trading and being lucky, but I am now vastly in black. What does that tell us? Every sucker can get his fair share of opportunity, if you let it slipped by you can only blame yourself.

Being invested the right way in the right long-term secular trend will hide a multitude of trading errors.

Bitcoin has been the trade of the decade and very well could become the trade of the century or even of all time in the history of humanity. Remember, Bitcoin is a sterile asset so any rise in the Bitcoin price merely represents a transfer of wealth from some other assets to the holders of Bitcoin.

As the Great Credit Contraction continues capital will seek safe and liquid assets by burrowing down the liquidity pyramid.





So am I right in saying that the Dow's new high is caused by capitals from the highest two levels of this inverted pyramid flowing into U.S stocks?

No.

Central banks worldwide have been forcing printed money up the pyramid from the green currency illusion level into stocks as an attempted policy tool to keep their corruption game afloat.

thezerg
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March 27, 2013, 01:03:43 PM
 #4527

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold:

March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT.
March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU.

Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%.

all i'm doing is comparing their individual appreciation rates against themselves and then each other since 3/13/12:

1.  gold:  1690 on 3/13/12 vs. today 1598 or 1598/1690=6% loss.
2.  Bitcoin:  5.4 on 3/13/12 vs. today 81 or 81/5.4=1400% gain.

Sure we understand your method.  I haven't spent the 5min to work out whether it is mathematically valid or not because I don't think that's what you really want.  I think you really want to ask yourself "How much better off am I since I moved from gold to bitcoin."  The script I posted gets you that number because it takes the ratio of the amount of $ you would have today if you had invested in bitcoin vs gold.

And the answer today (using 87.70 and 1598.70) is 1716%

By the way, cypherdoc a few days ago there was a discussion as to whether this thread helped any newbies and I would like to tell you that it helped me tremendously.  In early 2012 these forums were full of kids, scammers and basically ppl who considered bitcoin to be a game where normal morality and laws don't apply.  Your posts gave me hope that the potential of this currency could actually be realized and also affirmed my own belief that gold was fully saturated.
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March 27, 2013, 01:22:40 PM
 #4528

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold:

March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT.
March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU.

Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%.

all i'm doing is comparing their individual appreciation rates against themselves and then each other since 3/13/12:

1.  gold:  1690 on 3/13/12 vs. today 1598 or 1598/1690=6% loss.
2.  Bitcoin:  5.4 on 3/13/12 vs. today 81 or 81/5.4=1400% gain.

Sure we understand your method.  I haven't spent the 5min to work out whether it is mathematically valid or not because I don't think that's what you really want.  I think you really want to ask yourself "How much better off am I since I moved from gold to bitcoin."  The script I posted gets you that number because it takes the ratio of the amount of $ you would have today if you had invested in bitcoin vs gold.

And the answer today (using 87.70 and 1598.70) is 1716%

By the way, cypherdoc a few days ago there was a discussion as to whether this thread helped any newbies and I would like to tell you that it helped me tremendously.  In early 2012 these forums were full of kids, scammers and basically ppl who considered bitcoin to be a game where normal morality and laws don't apply.  Your posts gave me hope that the potential of this currency could actually be realized and also affirmed my own belief that gold was fully saturated.


To me he is just the opposite of my trader stereotype(that would be S3052), as he is so fanatic and full of love for bitcoin, but when it comes to the price I fully concede defeat, I have never expected it to be near $100 this early, something I only considered possible about a year later.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
thezerg
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March 27, 2013, 03:11:26 PM
 #4529

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold:

March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT.
March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU.

Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%.

all i'm doing is comparing their individual appreciation rates against themselves and then each other since 3/13/12:

1.  gold:  1690 on 3/13/12 vs. today 1598 or 1598/1690=6% loss.
2.  Bitcoin:  5.4 on 3/13/12 vs. today 81 or 81/5.4=1400% gain.

Sure we understand your method.  I haven't spent the 5min to work out whether it is mathematically valid or not because I don't think that's what you really want.  I think you really want to ask yourself "How much better off am I since I moved from gold to bitcoin."  The script I posted gets you that number because it takes the ratio of the amount of $ you would have today if you had invested in bitcoin vs gold.

And the answer today (using 87.70 and 1598.70) is 1716%

By the way, cypherdoc a few days ago there was a discussion as to whether this thread helped any newbies and I would like to tell you that it helped me tremendously.  In early 2012 these forums were full of kids, scammers and basically ppl who considered bitcoin to be a game where normal morality and laws don't apply.  Your posts gave me hope that the potential of this currency could actually be realized and also affirmed my own belief that gold was fully saturated.


To me he is just the opposite of my trader stereotype(that would be S3052), as he is so fanatic and full of love for bitcoin, but when it comes to the price I fully concede defeat, I have never expected it to be near $100 this early, something I only considered possible about a year later.

I wasn't referring to his tone but to his content.
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March 27, 2013, 03:13:36 PM
 #4530

The fiat junk is as limitless as it is valueless.

oakpacific
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March 27, 2013, 03:30:26 PM
 #4531

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1400%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -36% silverbox long

Diff:  +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold:

March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT.
March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU.

Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%.

all i'm doing is comparing their individual appreciation rates against themselves and then each other since 3/13/12:

1.  gold:  1690 on 3/13/12 vs. today 1598 or 1598/1690=6% loss.
2.  Bitcoin:  5.4 on 3/13/12 vs. today 81 or 81/5.4=1400% gain.

Sure we understand your method.  I haven't spent the 5min to work out whether it is mathematically valid or not because I don't think that's what you really want.  I think you really want to ask yourself "How much better off am I since I moved from gold to bitcoin."  The script I posted gets you that number because it takes the ratio of the amount of $ you would have today if you had invested in bitcoin vs gold.

And the answer today (using 87.70 and 1598.70) is 1716%

By the way, cypherdoc a few days ago there was a discussion as to whether this thread helped any newbies and I would like to tell you that it helped me tremendously.  In early 2012 these forums were full of kids, scammers and basically ppl who considered bitcoin to be a game where normal morality and laws don't apply.  Your posts gave me hope that the potential of this currency could actually be realized and also affirmed my own belief that gold was fully saturated.


To me he is just the opposite of my trader stereotype(that would be S3052), as he is so fanatic and full of love for bitcoin, but when it comes to the price I fully concede defeat, I have never expected it to be near $100 this early, something I only considered possible about a year later.

I wasn't referring to his tone but to his content.


Sorry, I was kind of doing a small talk. Smiley

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
sunnankar
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March 27, 2013, 04:47:53 PM
 #4532

Central banks worldwide have been forcing printed money up the pyramid from the green currency illusion level into stocks as an attempted policy tool to keep their corruption game afloat.

Which shows up in the DOW:gold ratio as the green currency illusion layer evaporates.

cypherdoc
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March 27, 2013, 05:01:57 PM
 #4533

Central banks worldwide have been forcing printed money up the pyramid from the green currency illusion level into stocks as an attempted policy tool to keep their corruption game afloat.

Which shows up in the DOW:gold ratio as the green currency illusion layer evaporates.

the problem with using that metric is that it has been going UP for the last year and a half which hasn't been giving us any meaningful information.

better to use Dow:Bitcoin which is fast evaporating.
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March 27, 2013, 05:59:52 PM
 #4534

the problem with using that metric is that it has been going UP for the last year and a half which hasn't been giving us any meaningful information.

better to use Dow:Bitcoin which is fast evaporating.

The depth of Bitcoin's capital pool is not even comparable currently although this is rapidly changing; about $1b to $9.6T.

The metric is still useful even if there are normal market undulations. The general trend, The Great Credit Contraction, is still very much in place and being accelerated by Bitcoin.

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March 27, 2013, 06:27:31 PM
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...
Sure we understand your method.  I haven't spent the 5min to work out whether it is mathematically valid or not because I don't think that's what you really want.  I think you really want to ask yourself "How much better off am I since I moved from gold to bitcoin."  The script I posted gets you that number because it takes the ratio of the amount of $ you would have today if you had invested in bitcoin vs gold.
...

It would only take 5 minutes, right?

One of the things they train us Engineers about is not using more significant digits than are appropriate because it implies a false degree of precision.  Thus, it is fairly inappropriate to say 1738% (vs. 1700%) if that is not know to be true to what is actually two decimal places.  Not to mention if the formula is bogus in the first place.

Any CPAs in the house?

edit: add '(vs. 1700%)' for illustrative purposes.

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March 27, 2013, 08:06:58 PM
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...
Sure we understand your method.  I haven't spent the 5min to work out whether it is mathematically valid or not because I don't think that's what you really want.  I think you really want to ask yourself "How much better off am I since I moved from gold to bitcoin."  The script I posted gets you that number because it takes the ratio of the amount of $ you would have today if you had invested in bitcoin vs gold.
...

It would only take 5 minutes, right?

One of the things they train us Engineers about is not using more significant digits than are appropriate because it implies a false degree of precision.  Thus, it is fairly inappropriate to say 1738% (vs. 1700%) if that is not know to be true to what is actually two decimal places.  Not to mention if the formula is bogus in the first place.

Any CPAs in the house?

edit: add '(vs. 1700%)' for illustrative purposes.

WHY are you torturing me with symbolic math!!  Grin  And WRT sig figs this is not a formal report AND cut-paste is easier then retyping...

Key: n = now  t = then  B = bitcoin G = gold

So Cypherdoc's method:

(bitcoinsNow/BitcoinThen)*100 - (goldNow/GoldThen)*100
Simplify:
(Bn/Bt)*100 - (Gn/Gt)*100
Final:
100* ((Bn/Bt) - (Gn/Gt))

My method:

((N/Bt)*Bn / (N/Gt)*Gn)*100
Simplify:
100* ((Bn/Bt) / (Gn/Gt))

So what do we really want to report?  Ok now let's imagine gold is at 1 and hasn't changed at all and bitcoin started at 1 and went to 4.  So the bitcoin holder could buy 4 times as much of something as the gold holder.

My equation yields 400%, cypherdoc's yields 300%.  Which makes sense to you?

What if gold falls from 1 to .5 and bitcoin again from 1 to 4.  So the bitcoin holder could buy 8 times as much stuff as the gold holder.
And my eqn yields 800%, cypherdoc's yields 100*(4 - .5) or 350%.



tvbcof
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March 27, 2013, 08:25:25 PM
 #4537


WHY are you torturing me with symbolic math!!  Grin  And WRT sig figs this is not a formal report AND cut-paste is easier then retyping...

Key: n = now  t = then  B = bitcoin G = gold

So Cypherdoc's method:

(bitcoinsNow/BitcoinThen)*100 - (goldNow/GoldThen)*100
Simplify:
(Bn/Bt)*100 - (Gn/Gt)*100
Final:
100* ((Bn/Bt) - (Gn/Gt))

My method:

((N/Bt)*Bn / (N/Gt)*Gn)*100
Simplify:
100* ((Bn/Bt) / (Gn/Gt))

So what do we really want to report?  Ok now let's imagine gold is at 1 and hasn't changed at all and bitcoin started at 1 and went to 4.  So the bitcoin holder could buy 4 times as much of something as the gold holder.

My equation yields 400%, cypherdoc's yields 300%.  Which makes sense to you?

What if gold falls from 1 to .5 and bitcoin again from 1 to 4.  So the bitcoin holder could buy 8 times as much stuff as the gold holder.
And my eqn yields 800%, cypherdoc's yields 100*(4 - .5) or 350%.


cypherdoc's struck me as intuitively invalid as well as invalid from what mathematics I remember from formal training in the distant past.  What you came up with matches my off-the-cuff method as well.

I never could remember and/or justify certain usually minor difference introduced by different uses of a denominator when doing certain ratio calculations.  On top of that, financial specialists have their own methods which sometimes seem intuitively wrong to me (though I give them deference.)  That's why I hoped there was a CPA kicking around.

But in the end, as you point out, it isn't important.  Going with your formulation and rounding heavily to be safe would suite the problem here admirably.


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March 27, 2013, 09:30:44 PM
 #4538


So what do we really want to report?  Ok now let's imagine gold is at 1 and hasn't changed at all and bitcoin started at 1 and went to 4.  So the bitcoin holder could buy 4 times as much of something as the gold holder.

My equation yields 400%, cypherdoc's yields 300%.  Which makes sense to you?



i'm glad you provided this example.  from a financial yield standpoint 300% would definitely be the answer.
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March 28, 2013, 12:10:00 AM
 #4539

another simpler example would be if Bitcoin went from 1 to 1.2.

if i understand your formula, you would say Bitcoin went up 120%.  that's clearly wrong as it only went up 20%.
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March 28, 2013, 12:32:32 AM
 #4540

another simpler example would be if Bitcoin went from 1 to 1.2.

if i understand your formula, you would say Bitcoin went up 120%.  that's clearly wrong as it only went up 20%.

You've switched the problem statement from one of '(dis)advantage BTC vs. Au' to 'increase/decrease BTC' in your example.  Holding gold steady, it well could be that BTC enjoys a 120% advantage over gold in this example.

Now I remember the ambiguity which I could never remember in computing these things.  With BTC only, would it be (delta/old) or (delta/new)?  Probably delta/old or 20%.

But I don't even remember if I took any finance classes, much less what I learned in terms of what was appropriate.  And I'm damn sure not going to research it.  That's why I retain a CPA.


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