Bitcoin Forum
December 10, 2016, 09:17:36 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

Pages: « 1 ... 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 [204] 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 ... 1560 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807752 times)
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 26, 2013, 06:55:26 PM
 #4061

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

Without breaking anonymity, you can't. The market simply feels different from my perspective, having been observing it for over two years. Watching the magnitude of the moves, reactions to them, general sentiment in forum and blog discussion, handling of news by media, etc. all point to widespread indications of growth - still early, but it's like waking from a deep sleep and getting reoriented.

Again, from my view (and I suspect others - cypher, Trace, Turk...)

absolutely
1481361456
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481361456

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481361456
Reply with quote  #2

1481361456
Report to moderator
1481361456
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481361456

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481361456
Reply with quote  #2

1481361456
Report to moderator
1481361456
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481361456

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481361456
Reply with quote  #2

1481361456
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481361456
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481361456

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481361456
Reply with quote  #2

1481361456
Report to moderator
1481361456
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481361456

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481361456
Reply with quote  #2

1481361456
Report to moderator
1481361456
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481361456

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481361456
Reply with quote  #2

1481361456
Report to moderator
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 26, 2013, 06:56:58 PM
 #4062

you guys should watch this.  it's interesting.  no mention about Bitcoin though:   http://wearelegionthedocumentary.com/
SkRRJyTC
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 966


View Profile
January 26, 2013, 07:35:50 PM
 #4063

you guys should watch this.  it's interesting.  no mention about Bitcoin though:   http://wearelegionthedocumentary.com/
ooh 4chan lol
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
January 26, 2013, 08:25:13 PM
 #4064

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

Without breaking anonymity, you can't. The market simply feels different from my perspective, having been observing it for over two years. Watching the magnitude of the moves, reactions to them, general sentiment in forum and blog discussion, handling of news by media, etc. all point to widespread indications of growth - still early, but it's like waking from a deep sleep and getting reoriented.

Again, from my view (and I suspect others - cypher, Trace, Turk...)

I agree, in blue, as always :-)

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
sunnankar
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1030



View Profile WWW
January 27, 2013, 02:31:37 AM
 #4065

Either way, it's good stuff. Notice that monthly volume is the 4th highest it's ever been in USD terms (likely to be 3rd by the end of the month), and this seems to be a different type of volume than the previous highs were - the 2011 bubble (June), the 2012 new year spike (January; possibly Pirate related), and the 2012 BS&T shutdown (August). Instead of concentrated activity or disasters, this feels more like organic growth from wider demand. With the exception of some high-volume trading participants, it does look like there are a lot more players than a year ago.

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

You would be surprised as some of us have some pretty sophisticated tools. There is a ton of useful information and analytics out there; if you only know what to look for and how to analyze it. There is also just simple currency valuation techniques just like there are simple fundamental financial analysis techniques (in case you want to see where I was right, again).

Think of currencies like storage containers like a propane tank or a battery. As funds flow in the price goes up as funds flow out the price goes down. Case in point, the stock market sells off and the USD strengthens because people are in effect selling stocks and buying dollars. Its all about funds flow. I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

While this keeps the BTC price down it is strengthening the overall Bitcoin economy. And that strength, think of it like a trade surplus and budget surplus (since Bitcoin is an equity based instrument) is laying the ground work for a very large move up, perhaps to at least $80-100, in the price over the next 12-18 months.

miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
January 27, 2013, 04:52:16 AM
 #4066

Its all about funds flow. I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

Indeed, and flow is just as important as accumulation - the latter is accelerated when the former builds.

While this keeps the BTC price down it is strengthening the overall Bitcoin economy. And that strength, think of it like a trade surplus and budget surplus (since Bitcoin is an equity based instrument) is laying the ground work for a very large move up, perhaps to at least $80-100, in the price over the next 12-18 months.

Exactly - the constant downward pressure is like packing down loose soil until it forms a rock-solid foundation. I might have to add to my 2014 bet Smiley
lebing
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1274


Bitcoin: The honey badger of currencies


View Profile
January 27, 2013, 06:19:32 AM
 #4067

Good to see this thread delivering again - thanks guys

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
waspoza
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 602


Firstbits: 1waspoza


View Profile
January 27, 2013, 09:10:32 AM
 #4068

Good to see this thread delivering again - thanks guys

+1
bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728


View Profile
January 27, 2013, 10:13:00 AM
 #4069

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.
vokain
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1610


V.V.V.V.V.


View Profile
January 27, 2013, 10:41:55 AM
 #4070

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

+1
thank you.

...مكتوب
Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
sunnankar
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1030



View Profile WWW
January 27, 2013, 11:09:37 AM
 #4071

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

Yes, Bitcoin is a fun experiment but the principles and theorems of human action still apply.

Markets are markets and based on Human Action. If you have not read Mises's magnum opus then I would highly recommend doing so to get a better understanding of why humans do what they do.

For speculators it is not so much top-down as bottom up. Among individuals there is information asymmetry and individual human action is generally done with intention to bring about some ends. Often, that ends is generally designed to improve the individual actor's circumstances. Each individual has access to information in different degrees and they always know something better than other individuals do (if only their own preference; but it could be as simple as the best route from point A to B, how to design a turbine engine, etc.). So, what the pricing mechanism does is tease out information from the marketplace.

And, ultimately, those speculators who are more accurate at prognosticating the future profit.

Your experimenting with Bitcoin is a great example of someone learning how the principles of human action work in an extremely raw environment (lack of govt. regulation). Of course, all govt. regulation does is create inefficiencies in the market which speculators and entrepreneurs are able to take advantage of and make tons of money. This experience and knowledge you gain from experimenting with Bitcoin, assuming you learn some correct principles (hence why I recommend reading Human Action), will help you make more accurate economic and financial prognostication decisions throughout your life. And who does not like being able to accurately and correctly prognosticate?

bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728


View Profile
January 27, 2013, 11:29:39 AM
 #4072

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

Yes, Bitcoin is a fun experiment but the principles and theorems of human action still apply.

Markets are markets and based on Human Action. If you have not read Mises's magnum opus then I would highly recommend doing so to get a better understanding of why humans do what they do.

For speculators it is not so much top-down as bottom up. Among individuals there is information asymmetry and individual human action is generally done with intention to bring about some ends. Often, that ends is generally designed to improve the individual actor's circumstances. Each individual has access to information in different degrees and they always know something better than other individuals do (if only their own preference; but it could be as simple as the best route from point A to B, how to design a turbine engine, etc.). So, what the pricing mechanism does is tease out information from the marketplace.

And, ultimately, those speculators who are more accurate at prognosticating the future profit.

Your experimenting with Bitcoin is a great example of someone learning how the principles of human action work in an extremely raw environment (lack of govt. regulation). Of course, all govt. regulation does is create inefficiencies in the market which speculators and entrepreneurs are able to take advantage of and make tons of money. This experience and knowledge you gain from experimenting with Bitcoin, assuming you learn some correct principles (hence why I recommend reading Human Action), will help you make more accurate economic and financial prognostication decisions throughout your life. And who does not like being able to accurately and correctly prognosticate?

Bottom-up to me means trying to understand why each neuron of each person is firing.  Cheesy I will take your advice.
Luno
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 420


Current balance: 00$$/00BTC


View Profile
January 27, 2013, 11:44:11 AM
 #4073

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

When I was quite new here, I read a post of yours where speculated that the current downtrend from $7 would end at $4.50 and the new high would be $14.

As we all know, you were completely right!!! Please consider yourself one of the local experts and don't be so modest!!

Grin SLOT machine with generous payouts and affiliate program. BTC No registration needed BTC Start playing within seconds BTC Provably fair and transparent BTC Win up to 5000 times your bet BTC Or make 30% by referring friends. ->  BitBandit.eu
bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728


View Profile
January 27, 2013, 11:56:58 AM
 #4074

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

When I was quite new here, I read a post of yours where speculated that the current downtrend from $7 would end at $4.50 and the new high would be $14.

As we all know, you were completely right!!! Please consider yourself one of the local experts and don't be so modest!!

And next I learned it was more complicated than that.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 28, 2013, 05:51:53 PM
 #4075

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread):

Bitcoin:  +242%

Gold:  -3%

GPL:  -25% silverbox long

Diff:  +245% advantage Bitcoin and growing.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 28, 2013, 09:50:51 PM
 #4076

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread):

Bitcoin:  +248%

Gold:  -3%

GPL:  -25% silverbox long

Diff:  +251% advantage Bitcoin and growing.
thezerg
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246


View Profile
January 28, 2013, 10:28:50 PM
 #4077

I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

Do you have evidence of its use as a settlement currency?
sunnankar
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1030



View Profile WWW
January 29, 2013, 03:48:03 AM
 #4078

I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

Do you have evidence of its use as a settlement currency?

Nothing I would like to share publicly besides stuff that is already public like MPEx.

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 29, 2013, 06:13:20 AM
 #4079

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread):

Bitcoin:  +254%

Gold:  -3%

GPL:  -25% silverbox long

Diff:  +257% advantage Bitcoin and growing.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
January 29, 2013, 07:13:36 AM
 #4080

The geeks fail to understand that which they hath created .
Pages: « 1 ... 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 [204] 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 ... 1560 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!