Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[rpietila]

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1243%

Gold:  -5%

GPL:  -33% silverbox long

Diff:  +1248% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

After hearing how you had to drag your precious metals to the dealer in several times, and you bought heavily into bitcoin at $2, I think I don't want to know what kind of wealth you have accumulated  . I am still dreaming of the faraway day I could buy a house with my profits. Congrats man !

Wow, sir (cypherdoc), that is quite a story.

[1714281414]

1714281414

[1714281414]

1714281414

[1714281414]

1714281414

[1714281414]

1714281414

[jubalix]

I see little chance of a larger correction to gold price unless the economy starts a miraculous recovery, which I don't believe in. Peak oil is still the most relevant problem that probably won't go away easily, next decade the earliest. Energy is the backbone of the whole economy and the gradually and slowly rising energy prices are a major source of friction in the economy causing everyone to take on more debt. Players in the economy are desperately trying to sustain growth while fundamentally there can be no growth because the energy to support that growth is simply not there.

Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.

I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.

Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.

THORIUM REACTORS, AT HOME< THE SIZE OF A WASHING MACHINE END OF ENERGY PROBLEMS

[oakpacific]

Great for him.  However, he just got lucky on timing.

Good luck is when preparation meets opportunity.

I really like that quote. "Lucky" people tend to be "lucky" more than they should.

Yup, you know what, I bought bitcoins near the 2011 peak, and on the way down to the bottom, whenever afterwards I wanted to trade in relatively large amount it is almost always a loss of money, so I absolutely sucked at trading and being lucky, but I am now vastly in black. What does that tell us? Every sucker can get his fair share of opportunity, if you let it slipped by you can only blame yourself.

[sunnankar]

so I absolutely sucked at trading and being lucky, but I am now vastly in black. What does that tell us? Every sucker can get his fair share of opportunity, if you let it slipped by you can only blame yourself.

Being invested the right way in the right long-term secular trend will hide a multitude of trading errors.

Bitcoin has been the trade of the decade and very well could become the trade of the century or even of all time in the history of humanity. Remember, Bitcoin is a sterile asset so any rise in the Bitcoin price merely represents a transfer of wealth from some other assets to the holders of Bitcoin.

As the Great Credit Contraction continues capital will seek safe and liquid assets by burrowing down the liquidity pyramid.

[molecular]

so I absolutely sucked at trading and being lucky, but I am now vastly in black. What does that tell us? Every sucker can get his fair share of opportunity, if you let it slipped by you can only blame yourself.

Being invested the right way in the right long-term secular trend will hide a multitude of trading errors.

Bitcoin has been the trade of the decade and very well could become the trade of the century or even of all time in the history of humanity. Remember, Bitcoin is a sterile asset so any rise in the Bitcoin price merely represents a transfer of wealth from some other assets to the holders of Bitcoin.

As the Great Credit Contraction continues capital will seek safe and liquid assets by burrowing down the liquidity pyramid.

I can't help but think you are Trace Mayer.

[oakpacific]

so I absolutely sucked at trading and being lucky, but I am now vastly in black. What does that tell us? Every sucker can get his fair share of opportunity, if you let it slipped by you can only blame yourself.

Being invested the right way in the right long-term secular trend will hide a multitude of trading errors.

Bitcoin has been the trade of the decade and very well could become the trade of the century or even of all time in the history of humanity. Remember, Bitcoin is a sterile asset so any rise in the Bitcoin price merely represents a transfer of wealth from some other assets to the holders of Bitcoin.

As the Great Credit Contraction continues capital will seek safe and liquid assets by burrowing down the liquidity pyramid.

I think Bitcoin is to money supply what democracy is to politics. Most of the supporters of bitcoin will not be anarchists, they may just want the government to stop messing up our money supply under the pretext of promoting economic growth, rather than getting rid of it completely. They have tolerated so much for so long because they had no alternative, now Bitcoin is just an ideal bargaining chip for them, it doesn't have to do all that fiats have been doing, it just has to prove it has the potential to do so, then it will be a big enough deterrence for those up there. And people love their bargaining chips, so they will invest enough to keep Bitcoin afloat, and a force to be reckoned with from time to time.

[Dusty]

[...]
As the Great Credit Contraction continues capital will seek safe and liquid assets by burrowing down the liquidity pyramid.

I can't help but think you are Trace Mayer.

Of course he is, his identity is not a secret

[molecular]

[...]
As the Great Credit Contraction continues capital will seek safe and liquid assets by burrowing down the liquidity pyramid.

I can't help but think you are Trace Mayer.

Of course he is, his identity is not a secret

Well, it was a secret to me

[marcus_of_augustus]

sunnankar:

I don't see bitcoins anywhere on your liquidity pyramid .... 

[sunnankar]

sunnankar:

I don't see bitcoins anywhere on your liquidity pyramid .... 

That liquidity pyramid was created in 2008.

[Jobe7]

I see little chance of a larger correction to gold price unless the economy starts a miraculous recovery, which I don't believe in. Peak oil is still the most relevant problem that probably won't go away easily, next decade the earliest. Energy is the backbone of the whole economy and the gradually and slowly rising energy prices are a major source of friction in the economy causing everyone to take on more debt. Players in the economy are desperately trying to sustain growth while fundamentally there can be no growth because the energy to support that growth is simply not there.

Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.

I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.

Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.

upvote!

This is major part of the reason why we're fighting to legalise Cannabis (CLEAR - Cannabis Law Reform, UK Political Party, yes, this is a shameless plug). Could always do with more support

[Jobe7]

And also,

Gold/silver and fiat only ever had each other to compete with (I put gold/silver together because transportation/usage is near identical). These 2 styles of 'money' now have a 3rd competitor.

And this 3rd competitor trumps both in every way (it has the benefits of both and then some).

It is inevitable.

[cypherdoc]

sunnankar:

I don't see bitcoins anywhere on your liquidity pyramid .... 

That liquidity pyramid was created in 2008.

When are you going to create Run to Bitcoin. Com?

[paraipan]

sunnankar:

I don't see bitcoins anywhere on your liquidity pyramid .... 

That liquidity pyramid was created in 2008.

When are you going to create Run to Bitcoin. Com?

+1

[tvbcof]

[...]
As the Great Credit Contraction continues capital will seek safe and liquid assets by burrowing down the liquidity pyramid.

I can't help but think you are Trace Mayer.

Of course he is, his identity is not a secret

Well, it was a secret to me

Any other semi-well-know people kicking around?

I cannot help but suspect the either Stacy Herbert of Max Keiser or both must nose around here a bit in spite of the fact that they probably lead busy lives.  The ~meowmeowbrowncow person has an image of Keiser, and the writing is something akin to what I would expect from one of them.

I actually know of Trace Mayer only first through this site.  While I am a decade long goldbug who gets 99% of his info from the non-mainstream media (and bought a book called 'how to disapear completely and never be found' off Loompanics as a juvenile) I'd not really run across his work prior.  (Sorry Trace.)

[cypherdoc]

sunnankar:

I don't see bitcoins anywhere on your liquidity pyramid .... 

That liquidity pyramid was created in 2008.

did you make that chart? i ran into it trading silver/gold a while ago.

i think he rejiggered it from another similar chart i've seen floating around.

[cypherdoc]

[...]
As the Great Credit Contraction continues capital will seek safe and liquid assets by burrowing down the liquidity pyramid.

I can't help but think you are Trace Mayer.

Of course he is, his identity is not a secret

Well, it was a secret to me

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101471.msg1111764#msg1111764

[cypherdoc]

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):

Bitcoin:  +1342%

Gold:  -6%

GPL:  -33% silverbox long

Diff:  +1348% advantage Bitcoin and Growing

[S3052]

your bitcoin call was very good, Cypher. and many folks in the bitcoin community made great bullish calls.
at the same time, we have to state that gold has not collapsed at all so far

[Vladimir]

If you look at price of gold in real term i.e. taking inflation into consideration, then the picture is not too rosy, but yet not quite a collapse. At the same time this is a pair trade and therefore there is no expectation that both sides of the trade perform spectacularly.