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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1863848 times)
wachtwoord
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June 12, 2013, 05:37:20 PM
 #5141



I assume you mean fiat? Really? I'm trying to have the least amount of cash possible without taking any unnecessary short term liquidity risks. Have you seen how much they are printing?

I own no PMs btw, because of the difficulties with storing physical PMs (owning paper doesn't appeal to me at all) and I think owning Bitcoin sufficiently fills this portion of my portfolio.

Yes Fiat, and That is for deflation.



They are inflating fiat ...

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wachtwoord
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June 12, 2013, 05:42:34 PM
 #5142

but it seems velocity is slowing.

Ah you mean Keynesian inflation. Keynesian's don't know what inflation is. If there are 1000 units of something and you create a 1001st, this is inflation whatever happens to the velocity. The only way to deflate would be to reduce the number of outstanding units. Please let me know when they start doing that  Cheesy

i know i know, you will need a phd to respond but that is why im doing it.

Nearly there, but not in economics Wink

wachtwoord
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June 12, 2013, 06:02:14 PM
 #5143

but it seems velocity is slowing.

Ah you mean Keynesian inflation. Keynesian's don't know what inflation is. If there are 1000 units of something and you create a 1001st, this is inflation whatever happens to the velocity. The only way to deflate would be to reduce the number of outstanding units. Please let me know when they start doing that  Cheesy

i know i know, you will need a phd to respond but that is why im doing it.

Nearly there, but not in economics Wink

we are in crazy times, but if some guy prints up money at 100% a year but keeps 110% of new money created in a safe, that is deflation (or at least the effects of deflation).



No way. This scenario is (hyper)inflation.

I don't care he keeps it in a locked shares, the fact is it exists and can be employed without restriction. If I used to own 1% of all outstanding money I would only own 0.5% after the first year followed by 0.25%, 0.125%, 0.062%. Assuming the real economy you own a portion of slows at a slower rate (which it will, 100% is unbeatable by the entire economy on practically any time-scale) your buying power lowers and lowers because the asset you're holding is inflated away.

It could have the short term effects of deflation btw. But who cares, I want long term buying power, not just tomorrow.

BitcoinAshley
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June 12, 2013, 06:03:35 PM
 #5144

Inflation of money supply, deflation of prices  Grin

Although we aren't really seeing "effective" deflation of price, consumer costs are rising significantly yoy, but certainly not at a rate respondent to the amount of money being printed.

So...
Massive inflation of money supply, lesser inflation of prices. Because the money supply in circulation is not actually increasing. The excess is just being held in reserve, also known as the S&P and the derivatives markets  Grin
Adrian-x
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June 12, 2013, 06:04:47 PM
 #5145

but it seems velocity is slowing.

Ah you mean Keynesian inflation. Keynesian's don't know what inflation is. If there are 1000 units of something and you create a 1001st, this is inflation whatever happens to the velocity. The only way to deflate would be to reduce the number of outstanding units. Please let me know when they start doing that  Cheesy

i know i know, you will need a phd to respond but that is why im doing it.

Nearly there, but not in economics Wink

we are in crazy times, but if some guy prints up money at 100% a year but keeps 110% of new money created in a safe, that is deflation (or at least the effects of deflation).

True, QE is propping up housing and retirement funds. (IE the printing is going into a safe)  Wink
If you believe that safe is secure put your money there. I'm not convinced.

To keep your investment value you need to invest in the needs 10-25 years from now.
And those needs are not in the perpetual growth backed economy of today, I'm not 100% convinced it is in PM's either.


Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Adrian-x
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June 12, 2013, 06:11:14 PM
 #5146


So...
Massive inflation of money supply, lesser inflation of prices. Because the money supply in circulation is not actually increasing. The excess is just being held in reserve, also known as the S&P and the derivatives markets  Grin
^ this

And this is a little more stable than Bitcoin at the moment, just waiting for the cashing out to start.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
thezerg
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June 12, 2013, 06:14:32 PM
 #5147

but it seems velocity is slowing.

Ah you mean Keynesian inflation. Keynesian's don't know what inflation is. If there are 1000 units of something and you create a 1001st, this is inflation whatever happens to the velocity. The only way to deflate would be to reduce the number of outstanding units. Please let me know when they start doing that  Cheesy

i know i know, you will need a phd to respond but that is why im doing it.

Nearly there, but not in economics Wink

we are in crazy times, but if some guy prints up money at 100% a year but keeps 110% of new money created in a safe, that is deflation (or at least the effects of deflation).



No way. This scenario is (hyper)inflation.

I don't care he keeps it in a locked shares, the fact is it exists and can be employed without restriction. If I used to own 1% of all outstanding money I would only own 0.5% after the first year followed by 0.25%, 0.125%, 0.062%. Assuming the real economy you own a portion of slows at a slower rate (which it will, 100% is unbeatable by the entire economy on practically any time-scale) your buying power lowers and lowers because the asset you're holding is inflated away.

It could have the short term effects of deflation btw. But who cares, I want long term buying power, not just tomorrow.

you fail econ 101. :/      well maybe not 101 but econ something. if the money created does not get into the "real economy" the price of things you have to deal with (buy) will not go up.

But it will move into the real economy... and when it does it won't be pretty.
justusranvier
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June 12, 2013, 06:25:35 PM
 #5148

No way. This scenario is (hyper)inflation.

I don't care he keeps it in a locked shares, the fact is it exists and can be employed without restriction. If I used to own 1% of all outstanding money I would only own 0.5% after the first year followed by 0.25%, 0.125%, 0.062%. Assuming the real economy you own a portion of slows at a slower rate (which it will, 100% is unbeatable by the entire economy on practically any time-scale) your buying power lowers and lowers because the asset you're holding is inflated away.
The hyperinflation of prices does not appear until the printed money is actually spent (or unless speculators learn about the printing and start bidding up prices in anticipation of it being spent).

Inflation and hyperinflation is just the effect of supply and demand with regards to currency chasing products and services. There's nothing about printing up a bunch of currency, locking it in a vault that nobody knows about, and telling no one about it, that will magically cause prices to start going up.
wachtwoord
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June 12, 2013, 06:26:52 PM
 #5149

you fail econ 101. :/      well maybe not 101 but econ something. if the money created does not get into the "real economy" the price of things you have to deal with (buy) will not go up.

if he takes money out of the supply or if money gets spent slower you get the effects of deflation.



I'm not talking about prices. I'm talking about the basic principle of inflation and deflation.

Furthermore, to me, the money created but kept in a hypothetical safe, is part of the economy as it can be employed in a heartbeat.

Just think of gold. When it's in the ground it's not part of the market. After I take it out of the ground and put it in a safe it is. Even though I'm not actively trading it I could do so at every time I would choose.

PS: I'm aware any Keynesian would tell me I fail at Economy. I my eyes, Keynesians are completely and utterly insane Smiley.

wachtwoord
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June 12, 2013, 06:29:00 PM
 #5150


its a case of classic def vs modern def and the confusion that it still brings.

I think those in charge of the printing presses came up with the new definition to make the scam they are pulling less obvious Smiley

wachtwoord
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June 12, 2013, 06:32:02 PM
 #5151

when you say "to me" it is only you thinking that... that is why you will fail in you investments and ideas.

gold is valued so high cuz most of it cant be spent. gold is a fucking mostly worthless rock.

Because it is "only me thinking that" I stand to gain the most.

Adrian-x
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June 12, 2013, 06:42:42 PM
 #5152

Quote

crypto, land, pms, fiat, guns, food... what else is there?

even doing all that i feel naked for what is about to come...
Wealth is a result of the sum of the whole being more than the sum of the parts. Cooperation in trade and mutual benefit is the base. (We are all co dependent on each other)

To build on Martin Luther Kind "a manipulation in free trade anywhere is a threat to wealth everywhere"

Imbalance exists in:
International trade
Sustainable development
Environmental explosion
Labour  in the free market

All enforced through law and international law.

You can only effectively address sustainability (energy and food security) through investing today.
But it can't come at the expense of the greater good.

A system like Bitcoin functioning within the law will allow a foundation to be built while imbalances are mitigated.

So I can't see a safe way to persevere wealth, but there are arias to invest it to move in the right direction.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Zangelbert Bingledack
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June 12, 2013, 06:42:56 PM
 #5153

By printing trillions of dollars and giving it to banks, but giving them incentive not to use it by paying interest on it from the Fed to the banks, thereby causing deflation (or just no inflation despite QE-infinity) first, it seems like a gigantic bailout/superbonus to banks, because when deflation hits those trillions will have even more purchasing power (or when inflation doesn't hit those trillions will be worth just as much), which the bankers will get to fully enjoy as they spend the money at full value buy up everything. Since it takes time for the newly issued bank money to ripple through the econoky amd drive prices up, the inflation will only hit like a year or two afterward, when the banks will already own "everything." Jefferson was right? Classic bankster playbook material straight out of the Great Depression (except more ambitious because they now have no gold standard so they can possibly forego deflation entirely in exchange for hyperinflation and bankers owning everything).

The classical strategy would then be to buy gold at the peak of the deflation (or just before the inflation starts - maybe now or soon?) when it'll be cheapest.

However, anticipating this, they might be planning do another gold confiscation as inflation hits. But here Bitcoin comes out of left field... (Not to mention that internationalization and the Internet are big potential monkey wrenches this time; this ain't 1930 anymore, and rehashing the old central banker strategies may not work.)
manfred
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June 12, 2013, 07:47:19 PM
 #5154

Quote
crypto, land, pms, fiat, guns, food... what else is there?

even doing all that i feel naked for what is about to come...

Yes these are some of the should have essentials you have listened here. The other 3 are: Personal Friends (not the facebook variety), Skills and common sense.

No question cash is king, its a matter of the timeframe you are talking about. The moment the hole in the wall stops spitting out some money and you still can whack some cash on the table you will be king. PM are almost worthless in a crises, they only have significant value once things start to pick up again, then you are king with them. cryptos you use any time u can, the gun when u have to. Skills and common sense all the time, the good friends when in real need (not everything can be brought).
BitcoinAshley
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June 12, 2013, 10:31:51 PM
 #5155

Quote from: manfred
No question cash is king, its a matter of the timeframe you are talking about. The moment the hole in the wall stops spitting out some money and you still can whack some cash on the table you will be king. PM are almost worthless in a crises, they only have significant value once things start to pick up again, then you are king with them.
So PMs are worthless in a crisis, but cash - likely backed by the very government whose folding is causing the crisis - will all of a sudden be worth something?

A piece of green cotton toilet paper with Ben Franklin's face is worth shit in a crisis when its backing government's power status is questionable. At least gold has a 6,000 year history of use as currency, and in many areas of the world (India, china, etc), people still recognize its utility as a traditional store of value. Fiat is new, unstable, made of paper, and backed by a central bank whose power could be removed any day. PMs and cryptocurrencies are global - not reliant on any one transitory entity for "backing."

Sorry, cash > PMs in crisis situation? that's just bunk logic yo. I agree that we wouldn't suddenly, magically revert into 100% PM-based exchanges in a crisis situation, but PMs definitely won't be worth less and fiat cash definitely won't be worth more than them. Unless we're talking about certain upcoming temporary deflationary scenarios, then maybe you've got something, but that's more of an intellectual consideration.
notme
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June 12, 2013, 10:50:59 PM
 #5156

Quote from: manfred
No question cash is king, its a matter of the timeframe you are talking about. The moment the hole in the wall stops spitting out some money and you still can whack some cash on the table you will be king. PM are almost worthless in a crises, they only have significant value once things start to pick up again, then you are king with them.
So PMs are worthless in a crisis, but cash - likely backed by the very government whose folding is causing the crisis - will all of a sudden be worth something?

A piece of green cotton toilet paper with Ben Franklin's face is worth shit in a crisis when its backing government's power status is questionable. At least gold has a 6,000 year history of use as currency, and in many areas of the world (India, china, etc), people still recognize its utility as a traditional store of value. Fiat is new, unstable, made of paper, and backed by a central bank whose power could be removed any day. PMs and cryptocurrencies are global - not reliant on any one transitory entity for "backing."

Sorry, cash > PMs in crisis situation? that's just bunk logic yo. I agree that we wouldn't suddenly, magically revert into 100% PM-based exchanges in a crisis situation, but PMs definitely won't be worth less and fiat cash definitely won't be worth more than them. Unless we're talking about certain upcoming temporary deflationary scenarios, then maybe you've got something, but that's more of an intellectual consideration.

I think he's more talking about a stock market crash as a "crisis" as the MSM terms it than an actual SHTF lights are out type situation.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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wachtwoord
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June 12, 2013, 11:14:43 PM
 #5157

I think he's more talking about a stock market crash as a "crisis" as the MSM terms it than an actual SHTF lights are out type situation.

I call that an opportunity Smiley

notme
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June 12, 2013, 11:17:58 PM
 #5158

I think he's more talking about a stock market crash as a "crisis" as the MSM terms it than an actual SHTF lights are out type situation.

I call that an opportunity Smiley

Me too, but many people learn economics from news reporters.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
BitcoinAshley
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June 13, 2013, 02:17:31 AM
 #5159

Yes I suppose in a "Crisis lite" the funny money will still be king, and evening news economics folks will continue look down upon PM bugs as eclectic hermits  Cool

Oh well, they'll learn. Just wish it didn't have to be the hard way  Cheesy
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June 13, 2013, 02:20:11 AM
 #5160

Inb4 salt takes back its rightful place as money and leaves all PMs olders S.O.L.  Grin
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