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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805137 times)
miscreanity
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June 25, 2013, 01:52:54 AM
 #5281

You will be vindicated eventually... you just might have to wait 2 years, 20 years, or 2 thousand years.

There have been several inflection points in the process of monetary mismanagement since the link between the dollar and gold began to separate, each progressively accelerating the overall rate of change. Increasing by a factor of ten in a decade seems to be a lot closer to 2 more years remaining than 20, much less 2,000.

If there were any realistic way to show the rate of systemic acceleration, it would be a different story. Sadly, there is no salvation for the existing system; there is only escape/transition.
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miscreanity
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June 25, 2013, 02:08:21 AM
 #5282

author argues gold and btc do not correllate (in fact negative 0.4 coeff), but BTC follows USDX with a 3 day lag (with a 0.89 correlation coefficient)

Paper gold and Bitcoin started separating early in the year. I still think it's likely that Bitcoin is a reasonable proxy for physical gold market valuation. Western outflow combined with similar magnitude eastern and central bank demand would create a similarly stagnant price period.

And gold is effectively cash...
Melbustus
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June 25, 2013, 05:12:23 AM
 #5283

...
And gold is effectively cash...


It's not, though. And maybe that's the crux of your disagreement with cypher.

Gold *used to be* effectively cash. And in a world without crypto, maybe the point would be moot because it would *still* be the only thing resembling ideal money that had a limited supply. But this world now does have crypto, which actually *is* ideal money for the modern world; all of gold's good properties, minus the real Achilles-heel for modern times (tangibility).

So, now, gold is not "effectively cash". Far from it. That has huge long-term implications. But historical inertia does indeed take time to change, so I, for one, have no idea what happens to gold short/medium-term.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
cypherdoc
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June 25, 2013, 07:20:13 AM
 #5284


Review my comment regarding backdrafts.


why should i?  you've been wrong for so long, my eyeballs hurt.

you've been wrong on silver for over 2 yrs, wrong on gold coming up on 2 yrs (since i started Gold: I smell a Trap on 8/9/11.

anyone listening to you has lost 33% on their gold bullion and a mind boggling 81% on their miners over that time period.  Shocked

you used to be their champion.  where'd all those boys go?

edit:  silver bullion is down 61%!
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June 25, 2013, 08:40:28 AM
 #5285

"The universality of the Handicap Principle in biology should be enough to make one suspect that a protocol which does not impose costs on its users invite abuse."

this is precisely why Ripple will fail and why Bitcoin will flourish.

http://themisescircle.org/blog/2013/06/24/the-proof-of-work-concept/
sidhujag
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June 25, 2013, 07:12:53 PM
 #5286

...
And gold is effectively cash...


It's not, though. And maybe that's the crux of your disagreement with cypher.

Gold *used to be* effectively cash. And in a world without crypto, maybe the point would be moot because it would *still* be the only thing resembling ideal money that had a limited supply. But this world now does have crypto, which actually *is* ideal money for the modern world; all of gold's good properties, minus the real Achilles-heel for modern times (tangibility).

So, now, gold is not "effectively cash". Far from it. That has huge long-term implications. But historical inertia does indeed take time to change, so I, for one, have no idea what happens to gold short/medium-term.

There is no supply and demand int he paper market, just demand from ppl like you and me and then supply from freaks like JPM/HSBC big banks that based on the lenght of their shit in the morning decide what to do even on days with news like FOMC. Whichever direction gives them the most SL's they will take. In the end the direction will prevail when there is a mistake and FED is backed up and have to eat their words. It will probably seem like a sell news event when really it will be a gold buy.
miscreanity
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June 25, 2013, 07:23:01 PM
 #5287

anyone listening to you has lost 33% on their gold bullion and a mind boggling 81% on their miners over that time period.  Shocked

Bitcoin price is stagnant; dark pools are back in vogue. We are seeing a two-tier value structure emerge just as there exists with gold. Observe the former to understand the mature market of the latter.

What you see and latch onto in the paper markets is the wading pool, not the ocean. Unrealized profits and losses are transitory concerns when dealing with the real, underlying assets.

The pain of paper is simply too much for anyone without the fortitude and/or resources to simply sit tight and be right. I keep tabs, but have moved on from both Bitcoin and gold, because trading is not a lasting form of wealth: creating markets is.
miscreanity
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June 25, 2013, 07:27:53 PM
 #5288

...
And gold is effectively cash...
It's not, though.

Kings (institutional-scale entities) use gold as cash.

Crypto is a replacement, but isn't big enough yet.
sidhujag
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June 25, 2013, 07:29:30 PM
 #5289

anyone listening to you has lost 33% on their gold bullion and a mind boggling 81% on their miners over that time period.  Shocked

Bitcoin price is stagnant; dark pools are back in vogue. We are seeing a two-tier value structure emerge just as there exists with gold. Observe the former to understand the mature market of the latter.

What you see and latch onto in the paper markets is the wading pool, not the ocean. Unrealized profits and losses are transitory concerns when dealing with the real, underlying assets.

The pain of paper is simply too much for anyone without the fortitude and/or resources to simply sit tight and be right. I keep tabs, but have moved on from both Bitcoin and gold, because trading is not a lasting form of wealth: creating markets is.

creating a market or driving demand is the way to go you're right.
S3052
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June 25, 2013, 08:33:40 PM
 #5290

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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webcoinx
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June 25, 2013, 08:35:33 PM
 #5291

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP


can't help but notice:

Quote
>13years experience

doing what? Cheesy

S3052
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June 25, 2013, 08:37:03 PM
 #5292

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP


can't help but notice:

Quote
>13years experience

doing what? Cheesy

writing in blue font :-)

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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Blitz­
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June 25, 2013, 08:37:39 PM
 #5293

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

You got it all wrong.

Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, US Dollar UP. Cheesy

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
S3052
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June 25, 2013, 08:40:52 PM
 #5294

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

You got it all wrong.

Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, US Dollar UP. Cheesy

this is for sure also a valid one

or:
China collapsing, Europe DOWN, soccer UP

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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ElectricMucus
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June 25, 2013, 08:42:30 PM
 #5295

China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
notme
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June 25, 2013, 08:44:03 PM
 #5296

China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.

In another decade China's exports will have collapsed as American robots and 3D printers lead a resurgence in western manufacturing.  Even China can't beat unpaid labor.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
ElectricMucus
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June 25, 2013, 08:45:29 PM
 #5297

China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.

In another decade China's exports will have collapsed as American robots and 3D printers lead a resurgence in western manufacturing.  Even China can't beat unpaid labor.
3D Printers are robots.
And who is gonna build the robots? And most importantly who's gonna supply the raw materials?

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
Blitz­
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June 25, 2013, 08:47:52 PM
 #5298

Robots. Robots building robots. The singularity and post-scarcity society is coming. I wonder if we will be needing money then anymore. Cheesy

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
notme
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June 25, 2013, 08:56:18 PM
 #5299

China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.

In another decade China's exports will have collapsed as American robots and 3D printers lead a resurgence in western manufacturing.  Even China can't beat unpaid labor.
3D Printers are robots.
And who is gonna build the robots? And most importantly who's gonna supply the raw materials?

Robots will do most robot manufacture, and some repair.  There will always be maintenance people, but a 5 man team can keep an entire factory rolling.  Since there is almost no labor demand, their wages won't be that high anyway.  We may be slightly more than a decade away, but I believe we will see significant progress towards this.

You have no idea how many junkyards with over 50,000 tons of scrap steel I have within 100 miles of my house.  Americans have been throwing shit away like crazy for decades.  We also mine quite a bit of various metals.  Yes, there are some resources we lack, but we have a great abundance of energy and arable land.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
paraipan
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June 25, 2013, 09:33:07 PM
 #5300

perhaps the thread should be renamed:
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, Litecoin UP

You got it all wrong.

Gold collapsing, Bitcoin DOWN, US Dollar UP. Cheesy

this is for sure also a valid one

or:
China collapsing, Europe DOWN, soccer UP



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