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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805800 times)
cypherdoc
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July 01, 2014, 03:41:44 PM
 #9061

hey FNG,

what do you think will happen when Bitcoin catches gold for the 2nd time?  Wink
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July 01, 2014, 04:03:56 PM
 #9062

There was a theory floating about that said, using bitpay etc. actually does nothing for the bitcoin community, as it creates selling presure whenever a merchant accepts bitcoin as a means of payment, the btc is converted almost immediately into fiat.
There's another theory floating around that says that payment processors are a way for new investors get into the market.

In this theory, investors who want to accumulate bitcoins without going through the exchanges instead underwrite a payment processor with their fiat, and take the received bitcoins as it comes in. By and large, the bitcoins the payment processors handle does not reach the exchanges.
cypherdoc
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July 01, 2014, 04:05:07 PM
 #9063

There was a theory floating about that said, using bitpay etc. actually does nothing for the bitcoin community, as it creates selling presure whenever a merchant accepts bitcoin as a means of payment, the btc is converted almost immediately into fiat.
There's another theory floating around that says that payment processors are a way for new investors get into the market.

In this theory, investors who want to accumulate bitcoins without going through the exchanges instead underwrite a payment processor with their fiat, and take the received bitcoins as it comes in. By and large, the bitcoins the payment processors handle does not reach the exchanges.

that's not a theory.  it's a fact.
justusranvier
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July 01, 2014, 04:09:21 PM
 #9064

that's not a theory.  it's a fact.
I heard a rumor that's how Max Keiser ended up with his bitcoins.
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July 01, 2014, 04:53:59 PM
 #9065

...
There was a theory floating about that said, using bitpay etc. actually does nothing for the bitcoin community, as it creates selling presure whenever a merchant accepts bitcoin as a means of payment, the btc is converted almost immediately into fiat.
...


As others are arguing, more merchant acceptance is a huge win despite the incremental technical selling pressure that could result short-term.

Think of it this way:
The selling pressure is linear. But, if we acknowledge that phenomena like bitcoin roughly follow Metcalfe's Law, we see that the net value added to the ecosystem is polynomial: N^2.

So the net addition to the economy is (N^2) - N, which is always positive (for all N>1).

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
Peter R
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July 01, 2014, 05:07:56 PM
 #9066

...
There was a theory floating about that said, using bitpay etc. actually does nothing for the bitcoin community, as it creates selling presure whenever a merchant accepts bitcoin as a means of payment, the btc is converted almost immediately into fiat.
...


As others are arguing, more merchant acceptance is a huge win despite the incremental technical selling pressure that could result short-term.

Think of it this way:
The selling pressure is linear. But, if we acknowledge that phenomena like bitcoin roughly follow Metcalfe's Law, we see that the net value added to the ecosystem is polynomial: N^2.

So the net addition to the economy is (N^2) - N, which is always positive (for all N>1).

Interesting analysis.  And more generally, the net addition to the economy is positive for values of the network-synergy coefficient p > 1 in V ~ Np.  

From the feedback control theory perspective, bitcoin seems to represent a pole in the right half-plane of the world's monetary system.  

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
sidhujag
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July 01, 2014, 05:11:30 PM
 #9067

...
There was a theory floating about that said, using bitpay etc. actually does nothing for the bitcoin community, as it creates selling presure whenever a merchant accepts bitcoin as a means of payment, the btc is converted almost immediately into fiat.
...


As others are arguing, more merchant acceptance is a huge win despite the incremental technical selling pressure that could result short-term.

Think of it this way:
The selling pressure is linear. But, if we acknowledge that phenomena like bitcoin roughly follow Metcalfe's Law, we see that the net value added to the ecosystem is polynomial: N^2.

So the net addition to the economy is (N^2) - N, which is always positive (for all N>1).
utility is everything. The selling pressure today presents a buying opportunity for tomorrow.
cypherdoc
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July 01, 2014, 06:21:53 PM
 #9068

grinding higher...
Melbustus
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July 01, 2014, 08:51:16 PM
 #9069

Auction won by a single bidder: https://twitter.com/paulvigna/status/484074892946837504

It's probably worth noting that if USMS ends up auctioning off the rest of their BTC holdings, there's now a confirmed pool of willing but empty-handed bidders waiting.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
smoothie
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LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


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July 01, 2014, 08:59:49 PM
 #9070

Auction won by a single bidder: https://twitter.com/paulvigna/status/484074892946837504

It's probably worth noting that if USMS ends up auctioning off the rest of their BTC holdings, there's now a confirmed pool of willing but empty-handed bidders waiting.

Which means they had to have paid much higher than any of the other bidders were willing. Which I would guess would be 10-20% over spot. So they probably paid 30% or more easily.

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FNG
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July 01, 2014, 10:01:59 PM
 #9071

hey FNG,

what do you think will happen when Bitcoin catches gold for the 2nd time?  Wink
I'm guessing it will keep going higher..maybe 5 figures before the next pause. Who knows. Bitcoin is market driven and thinly traded..an influx of even a relatively small amount drives it fiercely upwards. Gold is a different beast. Gold is in competition with the $ for the value role on central bank balance sheets. I don't know when that battle will get into full swing.
okthen
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July 01, 2014, 10:21:16 PM
 #9072

Auction won by a single bidder: https://twitter.com/paulvigna/status/484074892946837504

It's probably worth noting that if USMS ends up auctioning off the rest of their BTC holdings, there's now a confirmed pool of willing but empty-handed bidders waiting.

It's really weird that they released that information though.
If they say they won't reveal the winners to the public, I'd assume they wouldn't reveal any info at all...
Let's see what's their source.
kodtycoon
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July 01, 2014, 10:36:31 PM
 #9073

Auction won by a single bidder: https://twitter.com/paulvigna/status/484074892946837504

It's probably worth noting that if USMS ends up auctioning off the rest of their BTC holdings, there's now a confirmed pool of willing but empty-handed bidders waiting.

It's really weird that they released that information though.
If they say they won't reveal the winners to the public, I'd assume they wouldn't reveal any info at all...
Let's see what's their source.

on coindesk it quotes the usum or what ever it is that sold the btc as saying it. so source is legit.

"Pioneering a revolutionary novel consensus mechanism called proof of importance."
okthen
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July 01, 2014, 11:04:19 PM
 #9074

Auction won by a single bidder: https://twitter.com/paulvigna/status/484074892946837504

It's probably worth noting that if USMS ends up auctioning off the rest of their BTC holdings, there's now a confirmed pool of willing but empty-handed bidders waiting.

It's really weird that they released that information though.
If they say they won't reveal the winners to the public, I'd assume they wouldn't reveal any info at all...
Let's see what's their source.

on coindesk it quotes the usum or what ever it is that sold the btc as saying it. so source is legit.

Oh I hadn't seen it on Coindesk, duh.
Thanks for the heads up!
thezerg
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July 02, 2014, 12:11:04 AM
 #9075

Auction won by a single bidder: https://twitter.com/paulvigna/status/484074892946837504

It's probably worth noting that if USMS ends up auctioning off the rest of their BTC holdings, there's now a confirmed pool of willing but empty-handed bidders waiting.

It's really weird that they released that information though.
If they say they won't reveal the winners to the public, I'd assume they wouldn't reveal any info at all...
Let's see what's their source.

USMS only confirmed info that the bidders could have determined to a high probability if they started swapping stories.  Probably to head off "they didn't really sell em!"  conspiracy theories...
kodtycoon
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July 02, 2014, 12:53:48 AM
 #9076

Auction won by a single bidder: https://twitter.com/paulvigna/status/484074892946837504

It's probably worth noting that if USMS ends up auctioning off the rest of their BTC holdings, there's now a confirmed pool of willing but empty-handed bidders waiting.

It's really weird that they released that information though.
If they say they won't reveal the winners to the public, I'd assume they wouldn't reveal any info at all...
Let's see what's their source.

USMS only confirmed info that the bidders could have determined to a high probability if they started swapping stories.  Probably to head off "they didn't really sell em!"  conspiracy theories...
maybe they didnt?

"Pioneering a revolutionary novel consensus mechanism called proof of importance."
zeetubes
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July 02, 2014, 01:11:55 AM
 #9077

Auction won by a single bidder: https://twitter.com/paulvigna/status/484074892946837504

It's probably worth noting that if USMS ends up auctioning off the rest of their BTC holdings, there's now a confirmed pool of willing but empty-handed bidders waiting.

It's really weird that they released that information though.
If they say they won't reveal the winners to the public, I'd assume they wouldn't reveal any info at all...
Let's see what's their source.

USMS only confirmed info that the bidders could have determined to a high probability if they started swapping stories.  Probably to head off "they didn't really sell em!"  conspiracy theories...
maybe they didnt?

I wonder if any central banks/countries used a proxy to bid for the coins.
marcus_of_augustus
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July 02, 2014, 05:46:34 AM
 #9078

Peter R.

Quote
From the feedback control theory perspective, bitcoin seems to represent a pole in the right half-plane of the world's monetary system.

... this was gold Smiley

For those who didn't study control theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyquist_stability_criterion ...

justusranvier
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July 02, 2014, 08:40:54 AM
 #9079

Peter R.

Quote
From the feedback control theory perspective, bitcoin seems to represent a pole in the right half-plane of the world's monetary system.

... this was gold Smiley

For those who didn't study control theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyquist_stability_criterion ...
Speaking of feedback control theory, it's too bad Satoshi didn't have more experience in that area. If he'd ever tuned a PID controller, then maybe the difficulty formula would have included both a P and an I term.

Not that 8 minutes block intervals are necessarily a bad thing, of course.
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July 02, 2014, 10:21:12 AM
 #9080

Peter R.

Quote
From the feedback control theory perspective, bitcoin seems to represent a pole in the right half-plane of the world's monetary system.

... this was gold Smiley

For those who didn't study control theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyquist_stability_criterion ...
Speaking of feedback control theory, it's too bad Satoshi didn't have more experience in that area. If he'd ever tuned a PID controller, then maybe the difficulty formula would have included both a P and an I term.

Not that 8 minutes block intervals are necessarily a bad thing, of course.

Maybe he did and decided that "perfect" is the enemy of the "good enough for now"? ... and pull requests on tangible improvements can theoretically still make it through the political scrum on github/bitcoin?


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