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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1935150 times)
Melbustus
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July 31, 2014, 06:09:55 PM
 #10021

While I generally agree that starting a business is the best way to reliably create/increase wealth, I still think bitcoin, while quite volatile and ultimately binary, is one of the most asymmetric investment opportunities we're likely to see in our lifetime. This lays out the bull case decently: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/ .

I'll agree that it's a volatile investment opportunity Smiley What makes people so certain that Bitcoin will remain the champion with so many cryptocurrency sharks circling?



I've addressed the alt argument at length, many times, as have many others. Here's my latest:


...
It should be somewhat clear that 99% of existing alts will lose 99% of their value over the next few years. Most alt "innovations" either aren't innovations (like tweaking blocktime or supply), don't work, don't scale, or don't matter. Furthermore, ninja-mining, pre-mining, ugly emission curves, 51%s, NaS attacks, etc, can all kill coins even if there *were* actual innovation. And further still, it's probably the case that if any meaningful, viable innovation ever gets done in the alt-space, bitcoin could eventually incorporate it, making the separate chain irrelevant.

You have to understand that bitcoin's innovation was 30yrs in the making. Solving distributed global consensus was a breakthrough in computer science. There has not been a single innovation in the alt space that even sorta compares to that. Not one. Which is why bitcoin is highly likely to remain dominant.

Furthermore, it's been well understood for the past 20-30yrs that if you could solve distributed global consensus, you could do digital cash, and it would be a big deal. It's just that no one had figured out how to solve double-spending (global consensus) prior to Satoshi. There is no similar known problem being attacked in the alt-space for which a solution would be a breakthrough of similar magnitude. So an alt would have to luckbox into some completely unforeseen yet incredible innovation.

So bitcoin likely remains the primary crypto-coin. That said, there *are* potential niches to be filled by alt-coins. The only one I can clearly identify is anonymity. It's clear that bitcoin does not offer meaningful anonymity unless the user is technically skilled enough and motivated enough to obfuscate their transaction chains sufficiently. Furthermore, bitcoin is becoming a global asset class, fit for corporate balance sheets and HNW portfolios. It's also obviously seeing high-profile merchant adoption, and tacit acceptance/approval by various governments and regulatory bodies. If bitcoin offered technically pure anonymity that required zero user effort, governments would probably be a lot more directly hostile towards it. Thus, it seems unlikely that the bitcoin community would embrace full-anon tech in bitcoin core; lest governments react harshly and reduce existing ecosystem investment value dramatically.

So that leaves the anonymity niche open to an alt. As I've previously noted, ever since Zerocoin was published, I thought that when it came out as a functional implementation, it'd be the first actually interesting alt-coin. Well, it looks like these CryptoNote coins have beaten it to the punch of functional anonymity. Which CN coin will win is a different matter. XMR seems out in front, but the waters are muddy still.

I don't see any other obvious niches for alts. Turing completeness is interesting in theory, but I wouldn't trust the security of such a chain for a quite a while, and much of the benefits may be possible in bitcoin anyway. Other than that.... ?

Now that's not to say you couldn't make a killing if you play the alt market perfectly, and jump from coin to coin as they fall in and out of favor. But good luck not losing your shirt.



tl;dr: Alts suck, with very few even theoretical exceptions.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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cypherdoc
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July 31, 2014, 06:47:04 PM
 #10022

stocks moving down further.  i smell deflation:

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July 31, 2014, 07:09:28 PM
 #10023

nice, nice!:

BitcoinTangibleTrust
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Digitizing Valuable Hard Assets with Crypto


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July 31, 2014, 07:15:27 PM
 #10024

BitcoinTangibleTrust: You're cherry picking the data.  Where were you when coin dropped to 560 and gold held in the mid 1290s yesterday?

traderCJ. We actually wrote about the drop yesterday waiting to see if Bitcoin would continue to correlate with gold, but for today, it's bucking the trend. We think that's a great story.

http://research.digitaltangibletrust.com/breaking-news-gold-collapses-while-bitcoin-soars/



Comments welcomed!

Digital Tangible
Digitizing Valuable Hard Assets with Crypto http://www.digitaltangibletrust.com
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July 31, 2014, 07:24:36 PM
 #10025

coming up on -300 for the Dow...

you'd better RuntoSafety.
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July 31, 2014, 07:28:57 PM
 #10026

Boom.  -306.99
HeliKopterBen
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July 31, 2014, 07:52:56 PM
 #10027

@traderCJ

Here is the Silverbox update Cypher is reffering to



Since the beginning of this thread (which is not a cherry-picked point):

GOLD DOWN:  -24.2%

BTC UP:  +11,075%


OR


GOLD DOWN:  -99.32% when priced in BTC

BTC UP:  +14,603% when priced in Gold


Maybe we should rename this the TraderCJ update

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
cypherdoc
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July 31, 2014, 08:01:01 PM
 #10028

ding, ding, ding

Dow -317.06
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July 31, 2014, 08:02:47 PM
 #10029

some blessed soul on Reddit found the full US monetary base i couldn't find going back to 1918.

this inflation seems a little higher than Bitcoin's:

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July 31, 2014, 08:05:12 PM
 #10030

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July 31, 2014, 08:13:08 PM
 #10031

@traderCJ

Here is the Silverbox update Cypher is reffering to



Since the beginning of this thread (which is not a cherry-picked point):

GOLD DOWN:  -24.2%

BTC UP:  +11,075%


OR


GOLD DOWN:  -99.32% when priced in BTC

BTC UP:  +14,603% when priced in Gold


Maybe we should rename this the TraderCJ update

wow!
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July 31, 2014, 08:34:04 PM
 #10032

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/494943807621042176
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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July 31, 2014, 08:39:23 PM
 #10033

Rickards: "Tulips."  Grin

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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July 31, 2014, 08:39:56 PM
 #10034

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/494945288302653440
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July 31, 2014, 09:01:36 PM
 #10035

That's right Mel, my thinking on Bitcoin has changed.  Amazing what can happen after pondering and finding better ways to accumulate wealth.  Start a business.  That's what I did.

Bang on here, I'll add buy Bitcoin with the profits. That's what I did, now I know what backs Bitcoin it's excess profit.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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July 31, 2014, 09:11:15 PM
 #10036

And I do apologize for referring to Bitcoin as "garbage".  It's not, but I could really use the real estate more than the coins right now.  Running out of space.  Back to work ..

BitcoinTangibleTrust: You're cherry picking the data.  Where were you when coin dropped to 560 and gold held in the mid 1290s yesterday?

and you didn't when you quoted the monthly performance figures?

this thread is older than you and this is why all of us agreed to use the beginning of this thread as a fair comparison point to evaluate the success or failure of my thesis; this was at the suggestion of Silverbox, another dead and buried gold bug, which is why it's called the Silverbox Update.

I was a late comer so I thought Cypher had just got lucky. So I exited Bitcoin at an average of $13 and bought gold coins at an average of $1989 per oz.

I have a small gold position but tracked in Bitcoin it's a life changing mistake. If you want to cherry pick I say one should put your money where your mouth is and STFU.

+1 Cypher
any new calls not backed by risk are just hot air.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Adrian-x
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July 31, 2014, 09:18:21 PM
 #10037

@traderCJ

Here is the Silverbox update Cypher is reffering to



Since the beginning of this thread (which is not a cherry-picked point):

GOLD DOWN:  -24.2%

BTC UP:  +11,075%


OR


GOLD DOWN:  -99.32% when priced in BTC

BTC UP:  +14,603% when priced in Gold


Maybe we should rename this the TraderCJ update

wow!
Wow +1 lets add the DOW back too.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
sidhujag
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July 31, 2014, 09:25:37 PM
 #10038

Interesting that bitcoin shot up the day the market crashes.. seems the anti-market sentiment for bitcoin is working.. so when gold crashes OR when stocks crash money pours into bitcoin.. awareness is spreading and real money is coming in with only 21 million coin even 1% of the top elite coming in would push us to $10k.

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cypherdoc
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July 31, 2014, 10:33:05 PM
 #10039

smoothie
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LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


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July 31, 2014, 10:47:58 PM
 #10040

Time to rocket up.

I love how Cypher has essentially discontinued his private news letter and has now given a quasi-version of his letter publicly in this thread.

Loving it.  Grin Grin Grin

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