thezerg
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July 23, 2014, 06:02:12 PM |
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"The blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money."-cypherdoc
The new Ethereum release and funding is going to be a good test of my theory. From just over 50% confidence, I've moved it to just over 60% after the NYDFS regs. I say this b/c of the onerous identification mechanisms the regs have introduced. Because Vitalik and company are well known and trackable, I think they could become targets very soon by the SEC or some such regulatory agency for selling securities unregulated. With any regulatory attack will also come a freezing of their ether and USD funding. Mind you, I don't wish this on them at all; it's just a fact. As I've been saying, Satoshi by luck, design and timing, created a set of conditions that may never be reproducible. His anonymity being one of the most critical along with his privacy in boot strapping Bitcoin via mining in the early stages. I also don't see where Ethereum's mining power is going to come from. There aren't going to be many miners willing to secure stocks, bonds, smart contracts, or whatever, I think.
We'll see.
I think your quote is premature. But correct today. Why expose yourself to all the risk of using technology with only 5 years of history and then chain yourself to an instrument whose upside is that of gold, USD, or a stock/bond? The only advantage of having this stuff in the blockchain is that it provides more liquidity to bitcoin (the liquidity of the underlying instrument will be lower than its normal market for years). You can get out of BTC into colored-coin USD, etc quickly and after doing so your USD is not sitting on some shady exchange that might go belly up... but oh wait, the blockchain is a representation, so its actually sitting in the vault of some shady backer that might go belly up! So there's no point right now unless the company itself issues the stock on the blockchain, or a top-10 financial company provides the backing. But if Bitcoin grows to become daily currency and the blockchain technology matures, then it will start making more sense to put other stuff on the blockchain to facilitate trade. |
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Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the
subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The
subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
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_mr_e
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July 23, 2014, 06:54:40 PM |
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"The blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money."- cypherdoc
The new Ethereum release and funding is going to be a good test of my theory. From just over 50% confidence, I've moved it to just over 60% after the NYDFS regs. I say this b/c of the onerous identification mechanisms the regs have introduced. Because Vitalik and company are well known and trackable, I think they could become targets very soon by the SEC or some such regulatory agency for selling securities unregulated. With any regulatory attack will also come a freezing of their ether and USD funding. Mind you, I don't wish this on them at all; it's just a fact. As I've been saying, Satoshi by luck, design and timing, created a set of conditions that may never be reproducible. His anonymity being one of the most critical along with his privacy in boot strapping Bitcoin via mining in the early stages. I also don't see where Ethereum's mining power is going to come from. There aren't going to be many miners willing to secure stocks, bonds, smart contracts, or whatever, I think.
We'll see.
I would just like to point out that the creator of NXT(BCNxt) was also able to stay completely anonymous, while bootstrapping using privacy via bitcoins in it's early days;) Turing completeness & smart contracts is also on it's upcoming feature list and unlike Ethereum, it actually has a working product. |
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HeliKopterBen
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July 23, 2014, 07:06:28 PM |
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"The blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money."- cypherdoc
The new Ethereum release and funding is going to be a good test of my theory. From just over 50% confidence, I've moved it to just over 60% after the NYDFS regs. I say this b/c of the onerous identification mechanisms the regs have introduced. Because Vitalik and company are well known and trackable, I think they could become targets very soon by the SEC or some such regulatory agency for selling securities unregulated. With any regulatory attack will also come a freezing of their ether and USD funding. Mind you, I don't wish this on them at all; it's just a fact. As I've been saying, Satoshi by luck, design and timing, created a set of conditions that may never be reproducible. His anonymity being one of the most critical along with his privacy in boot strapping Bitcoin via mining in the early stages. I also don't see where Ethereum's mining power is going to come from. There aren't going to be many miners willing to secure stocks, bonds, smart contracts, or whatever, I think.
We'll see.
I believe we will see many financial functions utilize distributed consesus technology in some form or another. Whether all functions will use the bitcoin chain or whether multiple chains develop remains to be seen. There are projects under development other than ethereum and I believe one or two will emerge as a digital asset management system. Blockchain technology just provides a far superior mechanism for handling these assets vs their legacy counterparts. For example, shares of stock can be placed in cold storage instead of with a broker. Also, many more projects are emerging such as distributed internet and resource sharing. Don't get me wrong, bitcoin will be the standard as far as money goes, but the upper limit of this technology would be to replace the entire global financial system, which would take decades. Whether it gets that far or whether it falls into a niche type crowdfunding model or similar remains to be seen, but it will be used in some capacity other than just money for quite some time. Vitalik and company may be pestered by authorities but development will ultimately move to favorable jurisdictions and those countries who are hostile will lose out. The legacy financial system is in such a disaster that I believe it is inevitable. Either way, interesting times and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Also, thanks for all the info cypher. |
Counterfeit: made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive: merriam-webster
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cypherdoc (OP)
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July 23, 2014, 07:38:00 PM |
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"The blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money."- cypherdoc
The new Ethereum release and funding is going to be a good test of my theory. From just over 50% confidence, I've moved it to just over 60% after the NYDFS regs. I say this b/c of the onerous identification mechanisms the regs have introduced. Because Vitalik and company are well known and trackable, I think they could become targets very soon by the SEC or some such regulatory agency for selling securities unregulated. With any regulatory attack will also come a freezing of their ether and USD funding. Mind you, I don't wish this on them at all; it's just a fact. As I've been saying, Satoshi by luck, design and timing, created a set of conditions that may never be reproducible. His anonymity being one of the most critical along with his privacy in boot strapping Bitcoin via mining in the early stages. I also don't see where Ethereum's mining power is going to come from. There aren't going to be many miners willing to secure stocks, bonds, smart contracts, or whatever, I think.
We'll see.
I believe we will see many financial functions utilize distributed consesus technology in some form or another. Whether all functions will use the bitcoin chain or whether multiple chains develop remains to be seen. There are projects under development other than ethereum and I believe one or two will emerge as a digital asset management system. Blockchain technology just provides a far superior mechanism for handling these assets vs their legacy counterparts. For example, shares of stock can be placed in cold storage instead of with a broker. Also, many more projects are emerging such as distributed internet and resource sharing. Don't get me wrong, bitcoin will be the standard as far as money goes, but the upper limit of this technology would be to replace the entire global financial system, which would take decades. Whether it gets that far or whether it falls into a niche type crowdfunding model or similar remains to be seen, but it will be used in some capacity other than just money for quite some time. Vitalik and company may be pestered by authorities but development will ultimately move to favorable jurisdictions and those countries who are hostile will lose out. The legacy financial system is in such a disaster that I believe it is inevitable. Either way, interesting times and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Also, thanks for all the info cypher. you're welcome. the reason i've been apt to say such a bold thing, and i still can't be sure it's going to turn out this way, is that the problem is all about the money. it's all about the excessive leverage and overindebtedness that is allowed to occur first and then followed on in a crisis by rampant fiat printing by CB's. absent that, i don't think we would be having all these problems. it's not the stocks, bonds, or dervatives necessarily that are the problem, altho corruption exists there as well; it's the implicit backing by the Fed with money printing that encourages these trusted actors to go hog wild abusing the system knowing all the while that they'll be bailed out with fresh money. absent that central problem, everything else could be reeled in. and that's exactly what Bitcoin can solve, if allowed to replace gold's role as a world reserve currency. while we existing Bitcoiners might be able to live in a world where all these derivatives are decentralized, i don't think the average person can, will, or want to do the same. they won't mind depending on centralized trusted actors. and that would be ok in a system where Bitcoin provides the mathematical hammer to prevent fleecing of customers. Bitcoin encourages transparent and honest behavior that should trickle up in such a system based on a mathematical algorithm. moving to a Bitcoin Standard is also the easiest, simplest way to transition away from a fiat system w/o causing a world war. it would cause the least amount of disruption, pain, and misery to existing actors and, depending on how executed, would allow much of the current debt hole to be filled and supported with an appropriately valued Bitcoin. this of course would require a much higher valuation than today's price. as an optimist to where we are headed as a global society, this is how i think it should play out. but surely, i could be wrong. and is also why i doubt gold will ever return to it's former role, as it's an Armageddon play. |
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justusranvier
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July 23, 2014, 07:53:35 PM |
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There are projects under development other than ethereum and I believe one or two will emerge as a digital asset management system. I expect Open-Transactions to be the system most likely to emerge as a financial instrument platform, for the simple reason that Fellow Traveller is refusing to fall into the appcoin tarpit. All these systems that are based around an appcoin will fail, but OT will stick around because it just tries to a useful software platform instead of also trying to be its own currency (P&D scheme). |
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HeliKopterBen
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July 23, 2014, 09:57:20 PM |
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while we existing Bitcoiners might be able to live in a world where all these derivatives are decentralized, i don't think the average person can, will, or want to do the same. they won't mind depending on centralized trusted actors.
Decentralized systems can become just as user friendly or more user friendly than centralized systems, which were inherently built in a pre-digital age preventing them from giving us all the inherent security and freedom of decentralized systems. However, I agree that money is the most important foundational component to decentralize. Everything else is secondary and can come later if needed. |
Counterfeit: made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive: merriam-webster
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HeliKopterBen
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July 23, 2014, 10:00:30 PM |
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I expect Open-Transactions to be the system most likely to emerge as a financial instrument platform, for the simple reason that Fellow Traveller is refusing to fall into the appcoin tarpit.
All these systems that are based around an appcoin will fail, but OT will stick around because it just tries to a useful software platform instead of also trying to be its own currency (P&D scheme).
I'm not a big fan of the "embedded" currencies either. In most cases they are not necessary. |
Counterfeit: made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive: merriam-webster
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hdbuck
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July 23, 2014, 10:07:11 PM |
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it (...) would allow much of the current debt hole to be filled and supported with an appropriately valued Bitcoin. this of course would require a much higher valuation than today's price. as an optimist to where we are headed as a global society, this is how i think it should play out. but surely, i could be wrong.
hum cant wait for that silly debt to be backed with bitcoins...   i think we all agree that the current system is on its knees, struggling not to collapse in a blink, keeping the illusion. from there, cryptocurrencies seems to be the the logical and appropriate move: E V O L U T I O N. ps: and thx for the infos too cypher  |
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Trader Steve
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July 24, 2014, 12:53:58 AM |
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There are projects under development other than ethereum and I believe one or two will emerge as a digital asset management system. I expect Open-Transactions to be the system most likely to emerge as a financial instrument platform, for the simple reason that Fellow Traveller is refusing to fall into the appcoin tarpit. All these systems that are based around an appcoin will fail, but OT will stick around because it just tries to a useful software platform instead of also trying to be its own currency (P&D scheme). I think so too. Just as Bitcoin was the Black Swan of gold, OT might be the Black Swan of alt-coins/alt-chains. Any new technology that leverages the strength of the Bitcoin Blockchain has a much greater chance of success than those which try to compete with it. I am especially excited about the prospects of OpenTransactions Chaumian True Digital Cash that is backed by bitcoin. If my understanding is correct this could solve both the anonymity problem and the potential future bitcoin transaction fee problem. If any of you have any more info on this I would love to hear it. |
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Peter R
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July 24, 2014, 01:01:31 AM |
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I believe we will see many financial functions utilize distributed consesus technology in some form or another. Whether all functions will use the bitcoin chain or whether multiple chains develop remains to be seen. There are projects under development other than ethereum and I believe one or two will emerge as a digital asset management system. Blockchain technology just provides a far superior mechanism for handling these assets vs their legacy counterparts. For example, shares of stock can be placed in cold storage instead of with a broker. Also, many more projects are emerging such as distributed internet and resource sharing.
Realistically, many of these blockchain applications are a decade or more away (as you pointed out as well). For example, "bearer shares" are illegal in all jurisdictions that I'm aware of. I think it may be reasonable to create colored-coin share certificates that can be endorsed to a new owner by a digital signature, but the endorsee would have to present that colored-coin share certificate to the company and identify himself by legal name and address in order to complete the transfer in the company's share register. New laws would need to be written to have it any other way. Don't get me wrong, bitcoin will be the standard as far as money goes, but the upper limit of this technology would be to replace the entire global financial system, which would take decades. Whether it gets that far or whether it falls into a niche type crowdfunding model or similar remains to be seen, but it will be used in some capacity other than just money for quite some time. Vitalik and company may be pestered by authorities but development will ultimately move to favorable jurisdictions and those countries who are hostile will lose out. The legacy financial system is in such a disaster that I believe it is inevitable. Either way, interesting times and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
I think the idea of launching new global financial products from favourable jurisdictions is overstated. US law enforcement has global reach and it will be a fight to change this. Let's say you found some strange African country that allowed bearer shares or permitted Brock Pierce's "Real Coins." Is anyone serious going to be interested given the lack of legal protection should something go wrong? No one cares about some Mickey-Mouse Nxt token for ounces of silver issued by an anonymous forum member, but real businesses with public profiles will not be taking similar risks. There is so much we can do with bitcoin as a store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account. Let's get this working first. |
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justusranvier
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July 24, 2014, 01:11:31 AM |
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I am especially excited about the prospects of OpenTransactions Chaumian True Digital Cash that is backed by bitcoin. If my understanding is correct this could solve both the anonymity problem and the potential future bitcoin transaction fee problem. If any of you have any more info on this I would love to hear it. Once voting pools are completed, it will be possible to safely deposit Bitcoins with OT transaction servers and have a reasonable assurance that you're actually going to get your deposits back. The transaction servers will issue signed promissory notes for the deposits which can be used just like any other OT instrument. The first thing this means it that it will be possible to have exchanges that can't steal your Bitcoins any more. Also, as you mentioned, you get to use all OT features including Chaumian blinding and smart contracts with Bitcoins. |
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Trader Steve
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July 24, 2014, 01:27:23 AM |
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I am especially excited about the prospects of OpenTransactions Chaumian True Digital Cash that is backed by bitcoin. If my understanding is correct this could solve both the anonymity problem and the potential future bitcoin transaction fee problem. If any of you have any more info on this I would love to hear it. Once voting pools are completed, it will be possible to safely deposit Bitcoins with OT transaction servers and have a reasonable assurance that you're actually going to get your deposits back. The transaction servers will issue signed promissory notes for the deposits which can be used just like any other OT instrument. How are the bitcoins (backing) protected? Is this accomplished with some kind of multi-sig? |
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justusranvier
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July 24, 2014, 01:31:25 AM |
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cypherdoc (OP)
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July 24, 2014, 01:31:28 AM |
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Gold breaking below 1300
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cypherdoc (OP)
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July 24, 2014, 01:35:44 AM |
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Trader Steve
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July 24, 2014, 01:43:07 AM |
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Thanks! It's been a while since I reviewed these. I'll go brush up now. |
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cypherdoc (OP)
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July 24, 2014, 02:25:31 AM |
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Gold desperately trying to hang on:  |
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Adrian-x
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July 24, 2014, 02:27:07 AM |
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I'm sure that's the goal but wouldn't accumulating Bitcoin and holding eventually cause the rigging to fail? I'm sure there are bitcointalk members /quants who have a better idea how Bitcoin works than most wouldn't they be able to detect and manipulate the fixing for profit even as a loan outsider. |
Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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cypherdoc (OP)
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July 24, 2014, 02:33:22 AM |
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I'm sure that's the goal but wouldn't accumulating Bitcoin and holding eventually cause the rigging to fail? I'm sure there are bitcointalk members /quants who have a better idea how Bitcoin works than most wouldn't they be able to detect and manipulate the fixing for profit even as a loan outsider. the key will be to have multiple independent exchanges worldwide that trade as they do now realtime and 24/7 just to serve as a check on NY. |
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