Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

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[FNG]

moving to a Bitcoin Standard is also the easiest, simplest way to transition away from a fiat system w/o causing a world war.  it would cause the least amount of disruption, pain, and misery to existing actors and, depending on how executed, would allow much of the current debt hole to be filled and supported with an appropriately valued Bitcoin.  this of course would require a much higher valuation than today's price.  as an optimist to where we are headed as a global society, this is how i think it should play out.  but surely, i could be wrong.

and is also why i doubt gold will ever return to it's former role, as it's an Armageddon play.

It looks like this is where our opinions differ.

How would this take place? I could see the U.S making a play with their holdings of Ross's coins but the rest of the world?

This is the black swan so to speak of my current thesis and may possibly be the only out for the U.S.  An out that they need as they continue to lose support of the petro dollar. Either way, I stand to gain.

A run on bitcoin by the central banks will cause an enormous surge in value prior to them getting a hold of a substantial amount. A much easier way to fix up the current global financial system is to cleanse the debt on their books with something that is already in place, gold. Revalue gold and the massive hole that the $ once filled becomes whole and if done correctly clears debts as well. It's already there. waiting to be revalued to work as a debt sponge and a balancing weight.

From this point bitcoin gets integrated into the world of finance on a pretty clean slate instead of the debt ridden global economy we currently have.

[cypherdoc]

moving to a Bitcoin Standard is also the easiest, simplest way to transition away from a fiat system w/o causing a world war.  it would cause the least amount of disruption, pain, and misery to existing actors and, depending on how executed, would allow much of the current debt hole to be filled and supported with an appropriately valued Bitcoin.  this of course would require a much higher valuation than today's price.  as an optimist to where we are headed as a global society, this is how i think it should play out.  but surely, i could be wrong.

and is also why i doubt gold will ever return to it's former role, as it's an Armageddon play.

It looks like this is where our opinions differ.

How would this take place? I could see the U.S making a play with their holdings of Ross's coins but the rest of the world?

This is the black swan so to speak of my current thesis and may possibly be the only out for the U.S.  An out that they need as they continue to lose support of the petro dollar. Either way, I stand to gain.

A run on bitcoin by the central banks will cause an enormous surge in value prior to them getting a hold of a substantial amount. A much easier way to fix up the current global financial system is to cleanse the debt on their books with something that is already in place, gold. Revalue gold and the massive hole that the $ once filled becomes whole and if done correctly clears debts as well. It's already there. waiting to be revalued to work as a debt sponge and a balancing weight.

From this point bitcoin gets integrated into the world of finance on a pretty clean slate instead of the debt ridden global economy we currently have.

it's highly unlikely they will take such a big step back in time.

you're right that at some point they are going to have to enter the Bitcoin market and start bidding up the price to where they will each have enough reserves and to fill the enormous debt hole.

the gold price top @1923 back in Sept 2011 and the struggle to hold on since then is telling.  the collapse is near.

[zeetubes]

"A run on bitcoin by the central banks will cause an enormous surge in value prior to them getting a hold of a substantial amount. A much easier way to fix up the current global financial system is to cleanse the debt on their books with something that is already in place, gold. Revalue gold and the massive hole that the $ once filled becomes whole and if done correctly clears debts as well. It's already there. waiting to be revalued to work as a debt sponge and a balancing weight."

Does your thesis rely upon the US actually having all the gold it supposedly has? Everyone knows the USD is dead but the US can keep printing until the rest of the world stops accepting those dollars. But if the US doesn't have much gold, there's no way it can stop the printing now, basically until it no longer can. And they can suppress the price of gold for as long as they keep printing, albeit at the expense of ever growing unemployment. Like you (I think) i'm backing both horses, because even if the US only has gold plated tungsten, other countries do have that gold and on the day of reckoning, the price will explode imo. Unlike Cypherdoc, I can't see any non-Armageddon scenario, and that makes me hesitant about getting what I wish for. I see btc trending upwards and gold being suppressed until the dollar dies. Or until there's an outbreak of war outside the middle east. The ME is a place that no one really gives a fuck about anymore, including israel, unless the flow of oil is seriously impacted. The Ukraine conflict will have to significantly escalate before people and markets pay serious attention to it. China is also flexing its muscles, so there are many possible scenarios.

[FNG]

Does your thesis rely upon the US actually having all the gold it supposedly has?

No. If they don't, it makes them more likely to make a play on bitcoin than if they do, though. If they can somehow convince the rest of the world that the gold on their books is worthless(impossible) and that bitcoin is superior than gold to store on their balance sheets, they have a chance of getting a big leg up on the competition.

If they have the gold they are still a dominant force, Central Bank wise, but they'll have nowhere near the amount of power as they do now while controlling the reserve currency.

I don't see any reason why the rest of the world would allow their balance sheets to completely implode instead of bidding up gold when the $ loses support. It's sitting there, waiting.

What would happen if $ assets vanish and Gold value plummets..how is bitcoin magically going to make this good?  Dollar drops, PHYSICAL gold gets bid up 40x+, holders are clean of debt selling off a bit of their gold, and a new era free of USD constraints forms. No longer using the $ to provide value to other currencies but gold. Bitcoin gets integrated into the system to transmit value across borders easily and over time may push out gold as the ultimate ledger.

got to run..may add more later

[zeetubes]

Does your thesis rely upon the US actually having all the gold it supposedly has?

No. If they don't, it makes them more likely to make a play on bitcoin than if they do, though. If they can somehow convince the rest of the world that the gold on their books is worthless(impossible) and that bitcoin is superior than gold to store on their balance sheets, they have a chance of getting a big leg up on the competition.

If they have the gold they are still a dominant force, Central Bank wise, but they'll have nowhere near the amount of power as they do now while controlling the reserve currency.

I don't see any reason why the rest of the world would allow their balance sheets to completely implode instead of bidding up gold when the $ loses support. It's sitting there, waiting.

What would happen if $ assets vanish and Gold value plummets..how is bitcoin magically going to make this good?  Dollar drops, PHYSICAL gold gets bid up 40x+, holders are clean of debt selling off a bit of their gold, and a new era free of USD constraints forms. No longer using the $ to provide value to other currencies but gold. Bitcoin gets integrated into the system to transmit value across borders easily and over time may push out gold as the ultimate ledger.

got to run..may add more later

I agree. There is no way that central banks will give complete trust over to bitcoin until it's withstood the test of time. I still tell people that buying bitcoins as an investment is risky, which means that even though I have faith in it, it doesn't have 1000s of years of history behind it. It may only require a generation for people's mindset to change but the older men and women running central banks have to multiply that risk by an order of magnitude. That doesn't mean that the CBs won't make a play for BTC in the meantime, but I can't see any central banker feeling safe about putting a piece of paper worth $X trillion in Ft Knox cold storage with their private key wriiten down until they've had at least several years of testing.  EDIT: And by that time CBs may be irrelevant anyway.

[cypherdoc]

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/492186495177216000

[cypherdoc]

[manfred]

[cypherdoc]

Short term sell signal.  Failure to breakout from smaller triangle.  Still within larger triangle.

there are times when volume is indicative of the trend. especially when dealing with speculative assets with elastic supply.  i believe this is the main concern behind the selling pressure.   however, remember that it is just a derivative of the price and is not necessarily reflective of the fundamentals.  we've seen plenty of low volume situations back in the days esp. during the selloff down to 1.98 during the Fall of 2011.  volume was pitiful.  then, the selling pressure abated and the price started to rise inexplicably without volume follow on, initially.  bears, who kept looking to volume confirmation for the reversal, never got it until much later when bull speculators started to pile back in.  by then it was too late. their short positions were destroyed.

these low volume situations are expected for a fixed supply asset.  currently, investors are using it as a store of value, rather than a currency.  and for good reasons.  it has a chance to replace the function that gold once held as a world reserve currency.  we're at a cyclical bottom which further exacerbates the hodling.  ppl won't release their BTC until the price moves toward a new high when spending power is at a maximum.  or when inevitably merchants start offering discounts.

personally, it's an opportunity to buy another dip.

[cypherdoc]

there are also plenty of ppl who are worried about the gold price correlating with Bitcoin.  gold bugs should be worried; we've broken below the July 15 low which is trouble. for them. Bitcoin's headfake down today should serve to shake out many of it's skeptics; that's how bull markets work.  they are extremely hard to ride:

[cypherdoc]

TOL (Toll Brothers) getting blistered this morning.  Remember, the XHB housing ETF graph from the other day.  that's not good.  could be entering a period of deflation for stocks which would be horrific for gold:

[cypherdoc]

Junior miners once again break support from July 16 in a L translated configuration. confirmation of bear. not good:

[cypherdoc]

does it really matter when the R sided dump is already below the L sided breakout?

[cypherdoc]

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/492328521814249472

[cypherdoc]

Beyond New York: What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin

Here’s what happens on 17th October: bitcoin continues to be a juggernaut, rolling over the promiscuous money printers and corrupt kingpins of the centrally planned banking system, albeit with some market-based adjustments. Markets perceive regulation as ‘damage’ and route around it. This is true with Internet-related damage and it is equally true with bitcoin-related damage.

http://www.coindesk.com/beyond-new-york-lies-ahead-bitcoin/

[HeliKopterBen]

personally, it's an opportunity to buy another dip.

This is reminiscent of the Silk Road crash where the market fell after a long period of quiet, although not as bad this time, so far.  Many of us considered the silk road bust as good news while it was being portrayed as bad news because of the crash.  The same thing is happening how.  The NYDFS news is being portrayed as bad.  However, merchants that accept bitcoin are not included under the rules and regulations, only businesses exchanging fiat to bitcoin.  Also, the NYDFS is giving users a period of time to provide feedback, indicating a willingness to provide bitcoiners with regulation that will work best for both them and the state.  Although it looks pretty strict in its initial form, this regulation should provide a framework for legit exchanges to finally start operating in the US.

[cypherdoc]

stocks going negative. 

very slow long term roll.

[zeetubes]

stocks going negative. 

very slow long term roll.

I must admit I haven't checked the major stock indices, except inadvertantly, since the Bush mid-terms (06?) when markets on several days magically ended within a few points of where they began the trading day, after many wild swings. Mathematically improbable in a free market. The DOW should probably be somewhere around 3000 or less if it reflected anything to do with the real economy, which is basically in a depression, and certainly the future economy.

[Adrian-x]

Regulators and prosecutors are scrutinizing allegations that dealers at the world’s biggest banks traded ahead of their clients and colluded to rig the WM/Reuters rate, a benchmark that pension funds and money managers use to determine what they pay for foreign currencies.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-23/u-k-fca-said-to-near-fx-rigging-settlement-with-banks.html

This is the type of price rigging I worry about with Second Markets private dealer fixes.

I'm sure that's the goal but wouldn't accumulating Bitcoin and holding eventually cause the rigging to fail?

I'm sure there are bitcointalk members /quants who have a better idea how Bitcoin works than most wouldn't they be able to detect and manipulate the fixing for profit even as a loan outsider.

the key will be to have multiple independent exchanges worldwide that trade as they do now realtime and 24/7 just to serve as a check on NY.

Thanks for that I think we'll have a bright future,  I suspect trading alts could still play a part if they grab a piece of the pie during the next Bitcoin adoption cycle.