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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1936300 times)
Trader Steve
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July 24, 2014, 12:53:58 AM
 #9821

There are projects under development other than ethereum and I believe one or two will emerge as a digital asset management system.
I expect Open-Transactions to be the system most likely to emerge as a financial instrument platform, for the simple reason that Fellow Traveller is refusing to fall into the appcoin tarpit.

All these systems that are based around an appcoin will fail, but OT will stick around because it just tries to a useful software platform instead of also trying to be its own currency (P&D scheme).

I think so too. Just as Bitcoin was the Black Swan of gold, OT might be the Black Swan of alt-coins/alt-chains.

Any new technology that leverages the strength of the Bitcoin Blockchain has a much greater chance of success than those which try to compete with it. I am especially excited about the prospects of OpenTransactions Chaumian True Digital Cash that is backed by bitcoin. If my understanding is correct this could solve both the anonymity problem and the potential future bitcoin transaction fee problem. If any of you have any more info on this I would love to hear it.


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Peter R
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July 24, 2014, 01:01:31 AM
 #9822

I believe we will see many financial functions utilize distributed consesus technology in some form or another.  Whether all functions will use the bitcoin chain or whether multiple chains develop remains to be seen.  There are projects under development other than ethereum and I believe one or two will emerge as a digital asset management system.  Blockchain technology just provides a far superior mechanism for handling these assets vs their legacy counterparts.  For example, shares of stock can be placed in cold storage instead of with a broker.  Also, many more projects are emerging such as distributed internet and resource sharing. 

Realistically, many of these blockchain applications are a decade or more away (as you pointed out as well).  For example, "bearer shares" are illegal in all jurisdictions that I'm aware of.  I think it may be reasonable to create colored-coin share certificates that can be endorsed to a new owner by a digital signature, but the endorsee would have to present that colored-coin share certificate to the company and identify himself by legal name and address in order to complete the transfer in the company's share register.  New laws would need to be written to have it any other way. 

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Don't get me wrong, bitcoin will be the standard as far as money goes, but the upper limit of this technology would be to replace the entire global financial system, which would take decades.  Whether it gets that far or whether it falls into a niche type crowdfunding model or similar remains to be seen, but it will be used in some capacity other than just money for quite some time.  Vitalik and company may be pestered by authorities but development will ultimately move to favorable jurisdictions and those countries who are hostile will lose out.  The legacy financial system is in such a disaster that I believe it is inevitable.  Either way, interesting times and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. 

I think the idea of launching new global financial products from favourable jurisdictions is overstated.  US law enforcement has global reach and it will be a fight to change this.  Let's say you found some strange African country that allowed bearer shares or permitted Brock Pierce's "Real Coins."  Is anyone serious going to be interested given the lack of legal protection should something go wrong?  No one cares about some Mickey-Mouse Nxt token for ounces of silver issued by an anonymous forum member, but real businesses with public profiles will not be taking similar risks. 

There is so much we can do with bitcoin as a store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account.  Let's get this working first.   


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July 24, 2014, 01:11:31 AM
 #9823

I am especially excited about the prospects of OpenTransactions Chaumian True Digital Cash that is backed by bitcoin. If my understanding is correct this could solve both the anonymity problem and the potential future bitcoin transaction fee problem. If any of you have any more info on this I would love to hear it.
Once voting pools are completed, it will be possible to safely deposit Bitcoins with OT transaction servers and have a reasonable assurance that you're actually going to get your deposits back.

The transaction servers will issue signed promissory notes for the deposits which can be used just like any other OT instrument.

The first thing this means it that it will be possible to have exchanges that can't steal your Bitcoins any more.

Also, as you mentioned, you get to use all OT features including Chaumian blinding and smart contracts with Bitcoins.
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July 24, 2014, 01:16:29 AM
 #9824

Regulators and prosecutors are scrutinizing allegations that dealers at the world’s biggest banks traded ahead of their clients and colluded to rig the WM/Reuters rate, a benchmark that pension funds and money managers use to determine what they pay for foreign currencies.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-23/u-k-fca-said-to-near-fx-rigging-settlement-with-banks.html

This is the type of price rigging I worry about with Second Markets private dealer fixes.
Trader Steve
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July 24, 2014, 01:27:23 AM
 #9825

I am especially excited about the prospects of OpenTransactions Chaumian True Digital Cash that is backed by bitcoin. If my understanding is correct this could solve both the anonymity problem and the potential future bitcoin transaction fee problem. If any of you have any more info on this I would love to hear it.
Once voting pools are completed, it will be possible to safely deposit Bitcoins with OT transaction servers and have a reasonable assurance that you're actually going to get your deposits back.

The transaction servers will issue signed promissory notes for the deposits which can be used just like any other OT instrument.


How are the bitcoins (backing) protected? Is this accomplished with some kind of multi-sig?

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July 24, 2014, 01:31:25 AM
 #9826

How are the bitcoins (backing) protected - is this accomplished with some kind of multi-sig?
Yes.

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2013/12/06/voting-pools-how-to-stop-the-plague-of-bitcoin-heists-thefts-hacks-scams-and-losses/

http://opentransactions.org/wiki/index.php?title=Voting_Pools

http://opentransactions.org/wiki/index.php?title=Voting_Pool_Deposit_Process

http://opentransactions.org/wiki/index.php?title=Voting_Pool_Security_Measurement
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July 24, 2014, 01:31:28 AM
 #9827

Gold breaking below 1300
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July 24, 2014, 01:35:44 AM
 #9828

Trader Steve
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July 24, 2014, 01:43:07 AM
 #9829


Thanks! It's been a while since I reviewed these. I'll go brush up now.
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July 24, 2014, 02:25:31 AM
 #9830

Gold desperately trying to hang on:

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July 24, 2014, 02:27:07 AM
 #9831

Regulators and prosecutors are scrutinizing allegations that dealers at the world’s biggest banks traded ahead of their clients and colluded to rig the WM/Reuters rate, a benchmark that pension funds and money managers use to determine what they pay for foreign currencies.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-23/u-k-fca-said-to-near-fx-rigging-settlement-with-banks.html

This is the type of price rigging I worry about with Second Markets private dealer fixes.

I'm sure that's the goal but wouldn't accumulating Bitcoin and holding eventually cause the rigging to fail?

I'm sure there are bitcointalk members /quants who have a better idea how Bitcoin works than most wouldn't they be able to detect and manipulate the fixing for profit even as a loan outsider.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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July 24, 2014, 02:33:22 AM
 #9832

Regulators and prosecutors are scrutinizing allegations that dealers at the world’s biggest banks traded ahead of their clients and colluded to rig the WM/Reuters rate, a benchmark that pension funds and money managers use to determine what they pay for foreign currencies.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-23/u-k-fca-said-to-near-fx-rigging-settlement-with-banks.html

This is the type of price rigging I worry about with Second Markets private dealer fixes.

I'm sure that's the goal but wouldn't accumulating Bitcoin and holding eventually cause the rigging to fail?

I'm sure there are bitcointalk members /quants who have a better idea how Bitcoin works than most wouldn't they be able to detect and manipulate the fixing for profit even as a loan outsider.

the key will be to have multiple independent exchanges worldwide that trade as they do now realtime and 24/7 just to serve as a check on NY.
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July 24, 2014, 02:55:12 AM
 #9833

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July 24, 2014, 03:17:31 AM
 #9834



moving to a Bitcoin Standard is also the easiest, simplest way to transition away from a fiat system w/o causing a world war.  it would cause the least amount of disruption, pain, and misery to existing actors and, depending on how executed, would allow much of the current debt hole to be filled and supported with an appropriately valued Bitcoin.  this of course would require a much higher valuation than today's price.  as an optimist to where we are headed as a global society, this is how i think it should play out.  but surely, i could be wrong.

and is also why i doubt gold will ever return to it's former role, as it's an Armageddon play.
It looks like this is where our opinions differ.

How would this take place? I could see the U.S making a play with their holdings of Ross's coins but the rest of the world?

This is the black swan so to speak of my current thesis and may possibly be the only out for the U.S.  An out that they need as they continue to lose support of the petro dollar. Either way, I stand to gain.

A run on bitcoin by the central banks will cause an enormous surge in value prior to them getting a hold of a substantial amount. A much easier way to fix up the current global financial system is to cleanse the debt on their books with something that is already in place, gold. Revalue gold and the massive hole that the $ once filled becomes whole and if done correctly clears debts as well. It's already there. waiting to be revalued to work as a debt sponge and a balancing weight.

From this point bitcoin gets integrated into the world of finance on a pretty clean slate instead of the debt ridden global economy we currently have.
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July 24, 2014, 03:50:27 AM
 #9835



moving to a Bitcoin Standard is also the easiest, simplest way to transition away from a fiat system w/o causing a world war.  it would cause the least amount of disruption, pain, and misery to existing actors and, depending on how executed, would allow much of the current debt hole to be filled and supported with an appropriately valued Bitcoin.  this of course would require a much higher valuation than today's price.  as an optimist to where we are headed as a global society, this is how i think it should play out.  but surely, i could be wrong.

and is also why i doubt gold will ever return to it's former role, as it's an Armageddon play.
It looks like this is where our opinions differ.

How would this take place? I could see the U.S making a play with their holdings of Ross's coins but the rest of the world?

This is the black swan so to speak of my current thesis and may possibly be the only out for the U.S.  An out that they need as they continue to lose support of the petro dollar. Either way, I stand to gain.

A run on bitcoin by the central banks will cause an enormous surge in value prior to them getting a hold of a substantial amount. A much easier way to fix up the current global financial system is to cleanse the debt on their books with something that is already in place, gold. Revalue gold and the massive hole that the $ once filled becomes whole and if done correctly clears debts as well. It's already there. waiting to be revalued to work as a debt sponge and a balancing weight.

From this point bitcoin gets integrated into the world of finance on a pretty clean slate instead of the debt ridden global economy we currently have.

it's highly unlikely they will take such a big step back in time.

you're right that at some point they are going to have to enter the Bitcoin market and start bidding up the price to where they will each have enough reserves and to fill the enormous debt hole.

the gold price top @1923 back in Sept 2011 and the struggle to hold on since then is telling.  the collapse is near.
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July 24, 2014, 04:23:08 AM
 #9836

"A run on bitcoin by the central banks will cause an enormous surge in value prior to them getting a hold of a substantial amount. A much easier way to fix up the current global financial system is to cleanse the debt on their books with something that is already in place, gold. Revalue gold and the massive hole that the $ once filled becomes whole and if done correctly clears debts as well. It's already there. waiting to be revalued to work as a debt sponge and a balancing weight."

Does your thesis rely upon the US actually having all the gold it supposedly has? Everyone knows the USD is dead but the US can keep printing until the rest of the world stops accepting those dollars. But if the US doesn't have much gold, there's no way it can stop the printing now, basically until it no longer can. And they can suppress the price of gold for as long as they keep printing, albeit at the expense of ever growing unemployment. Like you (I think) i'm backing both horses, because even if the US only has gold plated tungsten, other countries do have that gold and on the day of reckoning, the price will explode imo. Unlike Cypherdoc, I can't see any non-Armageddon scenario, and that makes me hesitant about getting what I wish for. I see btc trending upwards and gold being suppressed until the dollar dies. Or until there's an outbreak of war outside the middle east. The ME is a place that no one really gives a fuck about anymore, including israel, unless the flow of oil is seriously impacted. The Ukraine conflict will have to significantly escalate before people and markets pay serious attention to it. China is also flexing its muscles, so there are many possible scenarios.
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July 24, 2014, 04:54:37 AM
 #9837


Does your thesis rely upon the US actually having all the gold it supposedly has?
No. If they don't, it makes them more likely to make a play on bitcoin than if they do, though. If they can somehow convince the rest of the world that the gold on their books is worthless(impossible) and that bitcoin is superior than gold to store on their balance sheets, they have a chance of getting a big leg up on the competition.

If they have the gold they are still a dominant force, Central Bank wise, but they'll have nowhere near the amount of power as they do now while controlling the reserve currency.

I don't see any reason why the rest of the world would allow their balance sheets to completely implode instead of bidding up gold when the $ loses support. It's sitting there, waiting.

What would happen if $ assets vanish and Gold value plummets..how is bitcoin magically going to make this good?  Dollar drops, PHYSICAL gold gets bid up 40x+, holders are clean of debt selling off a bit of their gold, and a new era free of USD constraints forms. No longer using the $ to provide value to other currencies but gold. Bitcoin gets integrated into the system to transmit value across borders easily and over time may push out gold as the ultimate ledger.

got to run..may add more later
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July 24, 2014, 05:13:26 AM
 #9838


Does your thesis rely upon the US actually having all the gold it supposedly has?
No. If they don't, it makes them more likely to make a play on bitcoin than if they do, though. If they can somehow convince the rest of the world that the gold on their books is worthless(impossible) and that bitcoin is superior than gold to store on their balance sheets, they have a chance of getting a big leg up on the competition.

If they have the gold they are still a dominant force, Central Bank wise, but they'll have nowhere near the amount of power as they do now while controlling the reserve currency.

I don't see any reason why the rest of the world would allow their balance sheets to completely implode instead of bidding up gold when the $ loses support. It's sitting there, waiting.

What would happen if $ assets vanish and Gold value plummets..how is bitcoin magically going to make this good?  Dollar drops, PHYSICAL gold gets bid up 40x+, holders are clean of debt selling off a bit of their gold, and a new era free of USD constraints forms. No longer using the $ to provide value to other currencies but gold. Bitcoin gets integrated into the system to transmit value across borders easily and over time may push out gold as the ultimate ledger.

got to run..may add more later

I agree. There is no way that central banks will give complete trust over to bitcoin until it's withstood the test of time. I still tell people that buying bitcoins as an investment is risky, which means that even though I have faith in it, it doesn't have 1000s of years of history behind it. It may only require a generation for people's mindset to change but the older men and women running central banks have to multiply that risk by an order of magnitude. That doesn't mean that the CBs won't make a play for BTC in the meantime, but I can't see any central banker feeling safe about putting a piece of paper worth $X trillion in Ft Knox cold storage with their private key wriiten down until they've had at least several years of testing.  EDIT: And by that time CBs may be irrelevant anyway.
cypherdoc
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July 24, 2014, 05:57:05 AM
 #9839

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/492186495177216000
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July 24, 2014, 06:10:47 AM
 #9840

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