[XMR] Monero Speculation

[reallynotme]

For those who haven't noticed yet, rehrar has revamped the official website:

https://getmonero.org/

And it looks awesome!

[bitstomake]

For those who haven't noticed yet, rehrar has revamped the official website:

https://getmonero.org/

Lovely stuff.

[Bassica]

Nice work by Rehrar!  

OT: why is it that every time we see a bit of a rally, someone instantly comes in and ruins the party. Like that 4.2k xmr market sell today.

That said, it does feel like we're about to gain some momentum again pircewise. Can't help to feel that the btc uncertainty can be positive for monero in the short run. Also, the community is steadily increasing, some cool developments coming up, new website is out and on top of that the massive ascending triangle on the weekly which has been building for almost a year is getting nearer to a close as well. The latter sure wil fire up a big movement. As Tone Vays noted: 'I never invest in 'shit'coins, but I'm inclined to drop some btc into this, textbook example!'

[25hashcoin]

For those who haven't noticed yet, rehrar has revamped the official website:

https://getmonero.org/

Really nice work.

[bitstomake]

Can't help to feel that the btc uncertainty can be positive for monero in the short run.

Is it mean spirited of me to be praying for SegWit to gigantically fail?

[NeuroticFish]

OT: why is it that every time we see a bit of a rally, someone instantly comes in and ruins the party. Like that 4.2k xmr market sell today.

That said, it does feel like we're about to gain some momentum again pircewise.

I've seen a technical analysis for Monero which has shown pretty plausible takeoff in some 2-3 weeks from now.
Meanwhile some will buy and some will sell. Interesting fact is that the takeoff was predicted just before the Bitcoin's August 1st.

[bitwolf]

Guys, please stop bother yourself with the price speculation. Just follow TrueCryptonaire posts. Every time he says the price is going deep down - the price rises up and every time he joins/buys Monero and starts praising it - the price drops down. This happens in every single f.ucking price prediction post he has made trough out the years. I can't stop laughing when he predicts something.

[rinus]

Guys, please stop bother yourself with the price speculation. Just follow TrueCryptonaire posts. Every time he says the price is going deep down - the price rises up and every time he joins/buys Monero and starts praising it - the price drops down. This happens in every single f.ucking price prediction post he has made trough out the years. I can't stop laughing when he predicts something.

just because he is the TRUE cryptionaire 

[CryptoPH]

For those who haven't noticed yet, rehrar has revamped the official website:

https://getmonero.org/

Great! What a lovely home page for our Monero.
Would also be nice if monero.org and or monero.com will be redirecting to this website too. 

[Hueristic]

Thing is, if bitcoin tanks... doesn't it rake the whole space down with it?

Good question.  I think it depends if people generally believe in the overall idea/concept of "cryptocurrency" OR if only "bitcoin" IS still "crypto" by itself alone.

Back when BTC market dominance was consistently over 90% I think the latter was probably true, but nowadays after BTC has given up so much share and so many of the alts have taken so much more, seems to me like the former may be true now.

Will "bitcoin people" just go back to fiat money if BTC implodes, or will they look to move to Facebook from MySpace instead?

Seems at least 50-50 to me...

P.S. {Edit} Update: here's the article where it says, near the end, that in theory up to 5 different bitcoins could be split apart:

     https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/countdown-segwit-these-are-dates-keep-eye/

...and, yes, it says it's very unlikely but all the same I'm curious what all you guys here, smarter than me, think what's actually most likely to happen?

Ohh what a tangled web we weave...

For those who haven't noticed yet, rehrar has revamped the official website:

https://getmonero.org/

Step in the right direction.

Can't help to feel that the btc uncertainty can be positive for monero in the short run.

Is it mean spirited of me to be praying for SegWit to gigantically fail?

Self defeating as it will hurt all crypto across the board.

[explorer]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes.  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

[dEBRUYNE]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes .  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

MoneroBlocks was offline for a few days. Therefore, also keeping in mind that they most likely had to restart their daemon, it is probably not seeing all the (full) nodes yet. This geomap shows a relatively stable node count:

https://monerobase.com/geomap/

[lazybeats]

Guys, please stop bother yourself with the price speculation. Just follow TrueCryptonaire posts. Every time he says the price is going deep down - the price rises up and every time he joins/buys Monero and starts praising it - the price drops down. This happens in every single f.ucking price prediction post he has made trough out the years. I can't stop laughing when he predicts something.

I watched him spruik XVG at 4 sats a day or 2 before it shot to 220.

[Celebrity]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes.  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

This information is correct. As a monero miner, I'm feeling very unfomfortable with the current situation. Active node number declined dramatically which is very bad for us. Now I wonder how the team will react against it to provide a solution. By the way, watching poloniex Monero charts very carefully.

[Febo]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes.  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

This information is correct. As a monero miner, I'm feeling very unfomfortable with the current situation. Active node number declined dramatically which is very bad for us. Now I wonder how the team will react against it to provide a solution. By the way, watching poloniex Monero charts very carefully.

What? Do you have any numbers?

Monero nodes seen in the last 72h : 1182.   Monero nodes only increase.

Now a hypothetical question. Can you also explain why you as a Monero miner would be concerned with Monero having less nodes?   I do understand it is bad fro users in Africa and central Asia, where is little nodes, but what that has to do with you?

[aminorex]

Supply consists of dishoarding, transaction churn, and mining.  Mining means almost nothing, relative to daily volume.  Dishoarding seems to have come to its end, at this price, leaving market makers and transactional flips to dominate the exchanges.  The flip rate appears to be, therefore, about 3mm USD per diem.  Using pq=mv and assuming the pessimal velocity of 365 / escrow time (21d) = 17.4, we can estimate the transactional float as 3mm*365 / 17.4 = m = 63mm USD = 1.3mm XMR. (The global velocity is then about 1.6, which is rather low for a healthy economy but pretty good compared to major global currencies ATM).

Assuming reserve demand to be stable (again, a pessimistic assumption), doubling the transaction rate while holding velocity steady should double the clearing price.  Pessimistically, then, the clearing price should be directly proportional to transaction flow rate.

There are thus three ways to increase the clearing price: Add reserve demand (reducing the effective float), add transaction demand (increasing the size of the economy) or decrease the velocity (reducing transactional supply).

In fact, I would expect velocity of the effective float to rise rather than fall, so hope of future appreciation is either speculation (on the madness of crowds), or else it is dependent on the fundamental assumption of rising reserve and/or transactional demand.  In practice these two demand factors are highly correlated:  observing a rising transactional demand motivates an increased reserve demand, while a rising price motivates dishoarding, which is subject to re-hoarding in a process of saver churn, known as "stronger hands".  

Notionally, the reserve market is discounting the future transactional market as well as its own dishoarding rate.  R_now = R_eq  + r * Dt * (dM/dt + dR/dP) , where Dt is the equilibrium horizon, P is the clearing price, dR/dP is a negative value, - dR/dP << dM/dt, and r is a discounting ratio per unit of t (time).  For fixed velocity, then, knowing the growth rate of the transactional market, dM/dt, would allow one to estimate the mean discounting rate and the dishoarding rate by observing a sequence of equilibrium prices, and hence provide a prediction of the price over time as a functor parameterized by the equilibrium horizon.  (I made one particularly egregious simplification, of the kind that motivates the moniker "dismal science", in order to keep this post short).

I have returned to booking gains as XMR until the next time XMR exceeds $60, whereupon I intend to return to booking gains in BTC.

[dazbog835]

I am slowly buying below 45$ these days, and my daily return on market making capital is now less than 50bp.  I have returned to booking gains as XMR until the next time XMR exceeds $60, whereupon I intend to return to booking gains in BTC.

noob here, but why would you return to BTC after XMR goes to 60?

[TheFuzzStone]

Hi all! I need to spam here in the name of Monero!

One ukrainian exchange started a voting to add Monero! If you have a Facebook-account, just goddamn "like" under this post.

https://www.facebook.com/nvctradeua/posts/1122840561194229

[explorer]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes .  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

MoneroBlocks was offline for a few days. Therefore, also keeping in mind that they most likely had to restart their daemon, it is probably not seeing all the (full) nodes yet. This geomap shows a relatively stable node count:

https://monerobase.com/geomap/

I was citing monerohash.com  which is still showing 880 range.  Monerobase.com is 11xx, which is what I had expected to see (if not higher, with the hashing jump). 

[KeyJockey]

AlphaBay disappearing having any effect on XMR... you guys think?