[XMR] Monero Speculation

[lyth0s]

DRK just broke 0.01 on the downside

I wonder if Dark community is joining into Monero community.

If they don't like "DASH" what makes you think they'd be crazy over "Monero"?

Monero offers real anonymity without the risk of centralized masternodes. And don't forget http://xmr.to , VERY useful for making bitcoin anonymous through the use of Monero.

[Joshuar]

Monero offers real anonymity without the risk of centralized masternodes. And don't forget http://xmr.to , VERY useful for making bitcoin anonymous through the use of Monero.

+1

New missive is out and there is an interview with xmr.to devs: https://getmonero.org/2015/03/09/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-09.html

Sweet. I enjoy these missives quite a bit.

[opennux]

DRK just broke 0.01 on the downside

I wonder if Dark community is joining into Monero community.

they clearly got into dark because they were looking for a particular product. if dark doesnt deliver on that promise they will probably come knocking on our door. monero will end up consuming darks capitalization. if dark commits seppuku we all in this thread likely stand to benefit very very greatly from that.

........., also would it mean the majority of coins would end up in the hands of masternodes and a few whales.

I argue that this is already the scenario. But of course, do your own research.

[jehst]

One thing to keep an eye on is bitcoin's bull market.

Altcoins tend to suffer in the beginning of bitcoin's bull runs. You can see Litecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcbtc) , Peercoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ppcbtc), and (Namecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc) all crashing hard in October 2013. Litecoin also suffered in May 2014 as bitcoin began its bull run to 680. XMR/DRK did well at that time, but only because anonymous coins were new and hot. Other alts suffered.

So if bitcoin breaks 300 with strength today or in the next few days, then we should prepare for some pain.

[ArticMine]

One thing to keep an eye on is bitcoin's bull market.

Altcoins tend to suffer in the beginning of bitcoin's bull runs. You can see Litecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcbtc) , Peercoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ppcbtc), and (Namecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc) all crashing hard in October 2013. Litecoin also suffered in May 2014 as bitcoin began its bull run to 680. XMR/DRK did well at that time, but only because anonymous coins were new and hot. Other alts suffered.

So if bitcoin breaks 300 with strength today or in the next few days, then we should prepare for some pain.

Yes. This is very true; however the whole DRK mess can change things. My take is that DRK/XBT will be have a bigger impact on XMR/XBT than XBT/USD.

[jehst]

One thing to keep an eye on is bitcoin's bull market.

Altcoins tend to suffer in the beginning of bitcoin's bull runs. You can see Litecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcbtc) , Peercoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ppcbtc), and (Namecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc) all crashing hard in October 2013. Litecoin also suffered in May 2014 as bitcoin began its bull run to 680. XMR/DRK did well at that time, but only because anonymous coins were new and hot. Other alts suffered.

So if bitcoin breaks 300 with strength today or in the next few days, then we should prepare for some pain.

Yes. This is very true; however the whole DRK mess can change things. My take is that DRK/XBT will be have a bigger impact on XMR/XBT than XBT/USD.

Is there really a DRK mess? DRK's retracement looks normal. It's had a big run. I don't think its decline will be notable unless it retraces 100% to .006x or below.

Of course, if DRK goes into terminal decline and XMR were to absorb DRK's 100k USD daily trade volume, then XMR would have the next highest liquidity after LTC. XMR's emission as a percentage of daily trade volume would become very small.

I doubt that the rise today was actually caused by darkcoiners abandoning ship for XMR, but if XMR becomes more visible during DRK's decline, then that can become the narrative. And once it's the narrative, it will become reality.

[pinky]

We have now started exponential bubble phase which is not sustainable and nobody knows how long or how far we go. All I can say, sell into strength, ussually this moves retrace hard and people panick and lose. Then buy back

[dEBRUYNE]

One thing to keep an eye on is bitcoin's bull market.

Altcoins tend to suffer in the beginning of bitcoin's bull runs. You can see Litecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcbtc) , Peercoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ppcbtc), and (Namecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc) all crashing hard in October 2013. Litecoin also suffered in May 2014 as bitcoin began its bull run to 680. XMR/DRK did well at that time, but only because anonymous coins were new and hot. Other alts suffered.

So if bitcoin breaks 300 with strength today or in the next few days, then we should prepare for some pain.

Yes. This is very true; however the whole DRK mess can change things. My take is that DRK/XBT will be have a bigger impact on XMR/XBT than XBT/USD.

Is there really a DRK mess? DRK's retracement looks normal. It's had a big run. I don't think its decline will be notable unless it retraces 100% to .006x or below.

Of course, if DRK goes into terminal decline and XMR were to absorb DRK's 100k USD daily trade volume, then XMR would have the next highest liquidity after LTC. XMR's emission as a percentage of daily trade volume would become very small.

I doubt that the rise today was actually caused by darkcoiners abandoning ship for XMR, but if XMR becomes more visible during DRK's decline, then that can become the narrative. And once it's the narrative, it will become reality.

Just head over to the DRK thred and see for yourself. Price is being held up artficially by Otoh.

[dEBRUYNE]

We have now started exponential bubble phase which is not sustainable and nobody knows how long or how far we go. All I can say, sell into strength, ussually this moves retrace hard and people panick and lose. Then buy back

This strategy might burn you really hard..

[GingerAle]

wow 45% in 24 hours. Why didn't I buy more 20 cent coins?

[rpietila]

It's happening.

This is a beautiful example of the XMR price probability distribution. In all likelihood, it goes slightly down. But if it goes up, as it is doing now, there is no telling really how high it could go. Other coins have shown up to 1000x increases in price in a few weeks. XMR's history shows surges in 2x-10x range.

This is only the 16th day after the Official Announcement for the Price Going Up, though. The rise has been gradual, but still so fast that it is possible that we will peak soon and crash back down. The good news is that there is a host of buyers both in the bid book and in the sidelines that will most likely consider the previous resistance in 180k-200k as a floor level now. (If not, good riddance!)

This realization gives the price the strength to go higher from those of the core community who were caught short of their comfort position, and an unknown number of new investors with their fat checkbooks is seemingly entering in as well. They don't respect our sacred petty price levels but think in terms of fiat and consider anything less than ATH ($5, now: $0.60) cheap. They represent a short term joker that might cause the altcoiner speculative buying frenzy. The speculators I don't believe will join in unless we cross 300-400k, but if they do, they can affect the price a lot, and do it fast.

A helpful fact is to think of the marketcap. It's still only $4 million, which is extremely small.

On the supply side, most of the supply is owned by the core community, and they are mostly not selling, until in 300-400k some might sell a little. Many in the core community were actually short of their position, and will need to consider buying in a "stop-loss" fashion.

It is likely that miners have built up some positions now as the price has been rising. They might be tempted to sell at around 200k and if dumps happen, my guess is that they are from the miners. Whether this miner selling is happily absorbed or not, or if it scares the bid walls away as soon as they came, determines if our next resting area is around 180-200k or above 300k. For historical reasons, in between is not so likely.

The new investors are in general not selling. An old money guy entering into XMR at this stage is not after a quick few bucks.

The speculators of course sell when they believe it's the time. But first they need to buy and my analysis is that XMR had extremely few speculative longs when the uptrend started, and still does not have them, since even the few that entered in the first days of the uptrend, have mostly sold their position for quick gains around 190k a few days ago.

For any longer term, Monero is a strong buy when done in moderation. Others are better in short-term forecasts.

[wpalczynski]

It's happening.

This is a beautiful example of the XMR price probability distribution. In all likelihood, it goes slightly down. But if it goes up, as it is doing now, there is no telling really how high it could go. Other coins have shown up to 1000x increases in price in a few weeks. XMR's history shows surges in 2x-10x range.

This is only the 16th day after the Official Announcement for the Price Going Up, though. The rise has been gradual, but still so fast that it is possible that we will peak soon and crash back down. The good news is that there is a host of buyers both in the bid book and in the sidelines that will most likely consider the previous resistance in 180k-200k as a floor level now. (If not, good riddance!)

This realization gives the price the strength to go higher from those of the core community who were caught short of their comfort position, and an unknown number of new investors with their fat checkbooks is seemingly entering in as well. They don't respect our sacred petty price levels but think in terms of fiat and consider anything less than ATH ($5, now: $0.60) cheap. They represent a short term joker that might cause the altcoiner speculative buying frenzy. The speculators I don't believe will join in unless we cross 300-400k, but if they do, they can affect the price a lot, and do it fast.

A helpful fact is to think of the marketcap. It's still only $4 million, which is extremely small.

On the supply side, most of the supply is owned by the core community, and they are mostly not selling, until in 300-400k some might sell a little. Many in the core community were actually short of their position, and will need to consider buying in a "stop-loss" fashion.

It is likely that miners have built up some positions now as the price has been rising. They might be tempted to sell at around 200k and if dumps happen, my guess is that they are from the miners. Whether this miner selling is happily absorbed or not, or if it scares the bid walls away as soon as they came, determines if our next resting area is around 180-200k or above 300k. For historical reasons, in between is not so likely.

The new investors are in general not selling. An old money guy entering into XMR at this stage is not after a quick few bucks.

The speculators of course sell when they believe it's the time. But first they need to buy and my analysis is that XMR had extremely few speculative longs when the uptrend started, and still does not have them, since even the few that entered in the first days of the uptrend, have mostly sold their position for quick gains around 190k a few days ago.

For any longer term, Monero is a strong buy when done in moderation. Others are better in short-term forecasts.

I tend to concur with your analysis and I will be very surprised if we do not see a correction to 002 area. 

How much effect do you think the DASH fiasco yesterday had on our nice appreciation?

If anyone knows how to easily extract orders from poloinex let me know.  Even better if its dynamic, using their iinterface doesnt work very well for me all the time.

[onemorexmr]

I tend to concur with your analysis and I will be very surprised if we do not see a correction to 002 area. 

How much effect do you think the DASH fiasco yesterday had on our nice appreciation?

If anyone knows how to easily extract orders from poloinex let me know.  Even better if its dynamic, using their iinterface doesnt work very well for me all the time.

they have an api which (mostly) works fine.
if you need help to get the information you need i can assist you (send me a pm)

[rpietila]

Well I made a short term trading strategy that imo has a good EV and does not presume that you trust in XMR:

- Buy at 230k
- Put a stop loss at 165k, which is below the new, supposed, floor at 180-200k (max loss 28%)
- Sell only if the speculators join in and take it to 600k+, which obviously is too fast for now (gain minimum 200%)
- Otherwise, wait for the price to find a new level
- In 3 weeks, we are either at 200ish, or 300-400ish, in both cases sell

EV calculation:

1 Stop-loss (P=0.3) = -28%
2 Stop-profit (P=0.1) = +200%
3 Stable at 200 (P=0.3) = -13%
4 Stable at 350 (P=0.3) = +52%
=========================
EV = 23% gain in 3 weeks, with a maximum loss of -28%.

[dreamspark]

Well hopefully we have found a new floor above the December high that was so important to break. I think this image tells the story of the strength of XMR right now.

[illodin]

Open Question: What is the most exciting thing that might realistically happen to Monero this year?

Being picked by Ryan the Pumper.  
This could give us 700+% profits in short time. Lol.

And there you have it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=765426.msg10724629#msg10724629

Apparently he settled for 114% only.

Although I'm pretty sure he just buys 1 coin of every coin so he can later post a pic of the trade to impress noobs to get them join his group.

[dreamspark]

Open Question: What is the most exciting thing that might realistically happen to Monero this year?

Being picked by Ryan the Pumper.  
This could give us 700+% profits in short time. Lol.

And there you have it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=765426.msg10724629#msg10724629

Apparently he settled for 114% only.

Although I'm pretty sure he just buys 1 coin of every coin so he can later post a pic of the trade to impress noobs to get them join his group.

LOL, this guy is a nobody. Look at the volume for the time he made that trade and tell me he makes big moves... He made 1btc at the most.

[coinits]

Open Question: What is the most exciting thing that might realistically happen to Monero this year?

Being picked by Ryan the Pumper.  
This could give us 700+% profits in short time. Lol.

And there you have it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=765426.msg10724629#msg10724629

Apparently he settled for 114% only.

Although I'm pretty sure he just buys 1 coin of every coin so he can later post a pic of the trade to impress noobs to get them join his group.

LOL, this guy is a nobody. Look at the volume for the time he made that trade and tell me he makes big moves... He made 1btc at the most.

Nah he gets 0.5 btc per week per member from anyone that joins his private club.

He is also pulling some shenanigans behind the scenes. Put 0.1 btc in a whole package of alts and when one takes off he can take credit for it with his charts and shit. If he acts like he is the reason for this pump I call bullshit. If his little pimp pump group can control a $4 million + Market Cap I would be very surprised. Maybe someone with deep pockets could put in a wall to stomp him into the dirt.

[rpietila]

Well hopefully we have found a new floor above the December high that was so important to break. I think this image tells the story of the strength of XMR right now.

LOL. Also the wall pic is quite impressive. Lack of sellers is starting to hurt the rise...  

[Anon136]

One thing to keep an eye on is bitcoin's bull market.

Altcoins tend to suffer in the beginning of bitcoin's bull runs. You can see Litecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcbtc) , Peercoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ppcbtc), and (Namecoin (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc) all crashing hard in October 2013. Litecoin also suffered in May 2014 as bitcoin began its bull run to 680. XMR/DRK did well at that time, but only because anonymous coins were new and hot. Other alts suffered.

So if bitcoin breaks 300 with strength today or in the next few days, then we should prepare for some pain.

They suffer crossed against bitcoin but they almost always do well in terms of fiat in these situations.