[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

Ofcourse 5000 BTC will take it to new ATH's, but at this stage it's just impossible to buy so much XMR without buying up the whole orderbook more than once.

Even if you would buy so much XMR you will have bought a lot of coins at a price where noone else wants to buy, so the price will crash shortly after and you will have lost a lot of those 5000 BTC in purchasing power.

Only the weakest guys are selling at these lows.
The Monero community consists mainly of second generation crypto people. I assume they are not interested in peanuts. I tell you, selling Monero below 1 btc per coin is selling Moneros for peanuts.
To drive the price high one need a plan. First decide where you want to buy it into and then buy and then create support for that price point.

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[iCEBREAKER]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

You can't make conclusions like that by judging the orderbook at this moment.

Most coins aren't held on exchanges since noone wants to get goxxed, if the price would rise to let's say 0.006 a lot more XMR will pop up on the sell side.

Even under threat of being goxxed (DEA'd?  Mark Force IV'd?) there are still over 600 brave BTC on Polo chasing ~200k XMR.

Wait until everyone else realizes the XMR rocket is only going straight to the moon, and then we'll see some proper FOMO panic buying (especially when a fiat<->XMR exchange comes online).   

[hodlmybtc]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

You can't make conclusions like that by judging the orderbook at this moment.

Most coins aren't held on exchanges since noone wants to get goxxed, if the price would rise to let's say 0.006 a lot more XMR will pop up on the sell side.

Even under threat of being goxxed (DEA'd?  Mark Force IV'd?) there are still over 600 brave BTC on Polo chasing ~200k XMR.

Wait until everyone else realizes the XMR rocket is only going straight to the moon, and then we'll see some proper FOMO panic buying (especially when a fiat<->XMR exchange comes online).   

Who doesn't want to get Mark Force IV'd?

But yeah I'm also having some BTC/XMR on Polo for some short-term trades but most of my holdings aren't in exchanges because I don't want to get Mark Force XXXIV'd.

~200k XMR out of ~7m total supply is 2.85% of coins on Polo, which isn't a low percentage but it can and will definately go up as the price is moving up, or coins will be market sold into big buy orders as we saw 2 days ago.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

Who doesn't want to get Mark Force IV'd?

But yeah I'm also having some BTC/XMR on Polo for some short-term trades but most of my holdings aren't in exchanges because I don't want to get Mark Force XXXIV'd.

~200k XMR out of ~7m total supply is 2.85% of coins on Polo, which isn't a low percentage but it can and will definately go up as the price is moving up, or coins will be market sold into big buy orders as we saw 2 days ago.

It depends. Keep in mind that when we started the bull trend there was 500 k xmr in sell orders. So while the price has been rising, the number of coins for sale has decreased actually.

[Its About Sharing]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

Who doesn't want to get Mark Force IV'd?

But yeah I'm also having some BTC/XMR on Polo for some short-term trades but most of my holdings aren't in exchanges because I don't want to get Mark Force XXXIV'd.

~200k XMR out of ~7m total supply is 2.85% of coins on Polo, which isn't a low percentage but it can and will definately go up as the price is moving up, or coins will be market sold into big buy orders as we saw 2 days ago.

It depends. Keep in mind that when we started the bull trend there was 500 k xmr in sell orders. So while the price has been rising, the number of coins for sale has decreased actually.

That is a really interesting stat. I wonder how much the liquidity (actively) has decreased and the affect that will have going forward.
T Minus...

[coinits]

Silver coins also don't have an appreciable economy. But if fiat, banks and Internet fail, it does not take long for such to form, because silver becomes the good with the highest score in "monetary attributes" column.

Similarly, there is no pressing need to develop an economy for an alt as long as Bitcoin is around. Also one of the attributes of money is marketcap, which for XMR is laughably small (but going into the right direction )

Diversity is your friend but I am sure that you already know that. Buy silver coins and sit on them.

I am surprised that the Satoshi Clan has not forked BTC and offered up a mutant form of it to add in anonymity. Oh well. It's their loss and XMR's / our gain!

[hodlmybtc]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

Who doesn't want to get Mark Force IV'd?

But yeah I'm also having some BTC/XMR on Polo for some short-term trades but most of my holdings aren't in exchanges because I don't want to get Mark Force XXXIV'd.

~200k XMR out of ~7m total supply is 2.85% of coins on Polo, which isn't a low percentage but it can and will definately go up as the price is moving up, or coins will be market sold into big buy orders as we saw 2 days ago.

It depends. Keep in mind that when we started the bull trend there was 500 k xmr in sell orders. So while the price has been rising, the number of coins for sale has decreased actually.

Probably because most people think in USD/BTC value, 500k xmr at the start of the bull trend was worth less than the 200k now.

Also a lot of those 500k XMR were probably in the hands of speculators, tried to make a quick buck, got in the downtrend and then decided to sell off when instead of quick money they lost money quickly.

I doubt anyone who really believes in Monero has sold a big part or all of their XMR under 0.002, or even 0.004 but 400% profit in BTC since the low is never bad ofcourse.

[rpietila]

The oldies might have kept coins in the exchange as scarecoins, to allow for a longer accumulation period for them.

I judged during the darkest of times that if Polo steals the XMR, it's either 1) the end of the coin, so no difference how they are secured or 2) the price goes so low in the aftermath that I can buy the position back for not so big amount of money.

2 months ago, the largest XMR positions were only about $100k, which is not a big money for a strategic player.

The new players hardly have the same incentives, so the askbook becomes thinner as a result.

[iCEBREAKER]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

Who doesn't want to get Mark Force IV'd?

But yeah I'm also having some BTC/XMR on Polo for some short-term trades but most of my holdings aren't in exchanges because I don't want to get Mark Force XXXIV'd.

~200k XMR out of ~7m total supply is 2.85% of coins on Polo, which isn't a low percentage but it can and will definately go up as the price is moving up, or coins will be market sold into big buy orders as we saw 2 days ago.

It depends. Keep in mind that when we started the bull trend there was 500 k xmr in sell orders. So while the price has been rising, the number of coins for sale has decreased actually.

Is anyone tracking/analyzing the history of buy/sell order volume?  I like to look at pretty charts.

When I hear 'Mark Force IV' I picture some kind of crappy 80s Chrysler.  Wasn't the Mark Force IV the high-end trim version of the K-Car?  

[rpietila]

Silver coins

Diversity is your friend but I am sure that you already know that. Buy silver coins and sit on them.

The scenario when silver coins would become useful has become much lower probability. Silver price from 2011-> tells the story.

I have 10,000s of silver coins just in case  

[bhokor]

Some news about the gui wallet?

[Anon136]

Silver coins

Diversity is your friend but I am sure that you already know that. Buy silver coins and sit on them.

The scenario when silver coins would become useful has become much lower probability. Silver price from 2011-> tells the story.

I have 10,000s of silver coins just in case  

switched most of my silver to monero.
i regret nothing

this game can go on for many more years. look how they pump the usd

the rise in the value of the usd is organic i think. its a flight to liquidity by terrified emerging market economies.

as for silver, the day will come that the cryptarchy cant hold it down any longer. the longer they artificially hold down the price through naked short selling and cash settlements guaranteed by the fed the more the demand will increase and the supply decrease. as it stands right now its a bloodbath in the mining sector and demand in asia is exploding precisely because of the manipulation of prices.

crypto is fun, its a great way to move money and a powerful speculate vehicle, but its not a great way to store value. when it comes to locking in those gains in a meaningful way, its all about them ounces.

[brg444]

Silver coins

Diversity is your friend but I am sure that you already know that. Buy silver coins and sit on them.

The scenario when silver coins would become useful has become much lower probability. Silver price from 2011-> tells the story.

I have 10,000s of silver coins just in case  

switched most of my silver to monero.
i regret nothing

this game can go on for many more years. look how they pump the usd

the rise in the value of the usd is organic i think. its a flight to liquidity by terrified emerging market economies.

as for silver, the day will come that the cryptarchy cant hold it down any longer. the longer they artificially hold down the price through naked short selling and cash settlements guaranteed by the fed the more the demand will increase and the supply decrease. as it stands right now its a bloodbath in the mining sector and demand in asia is exploding precisely because of the manipulation of prices.

crypto is fun, its a great way to move money and a powerful speculate vehicle, but its not a great way to store value. when it comes to locking in those gains in a meaningful way, its all about them ounces.

Why not?  

[iCEBREAKER]

Polo giving good trollbox today:

luschtiha: good evening gys, whats up? xmr of course

Is it some kind of indicator? 

[Anon136]

Silver coins

Diversity is your friend but I am sure that you already know that. Buy silver coins and sit on them.

The scenario when silver coins would become useful has become much lower probability. Silver price from 2011-> tells the story.

I have 10,000s of silver coins just in case  

switched most of my silver to monero.
i regret nothing

this game can go on for many more years. look how they pump the usd

the rise in the value of the usd is organic i think. its a flight to liquidity by terrified emerging market economies.

as for silver, the day will come that the cryptarchy cant hold it down any longer. the longer they artificially hold down the price through naked short selling and cash settlements guaranteed by the fed the more the demand will increase and the supply decrease. as it stands right now its a bloodbath in the mining sector and demand in asia is exploding precisely because of the manipulation of prices.

crypto is fun, its a great way to move money and a powerful speculate vehicle, but its not a great way to store value. when it comes to locking in those gains in a meaningful way, its all about them ounces.

Why not? 

Basically it has to do with the drawback of consensus based systems. The advantages are obvious and oft discussed. But the drawback that is less discussed is the lack of adaptability. (this could change with a successful implementation of sidechains) This means that basically, as it stands now, when new better ideas emerge for how to build better solutions for crypto systems, all the capital has to move from one system to another. If some of the people in this thread are right about some of the things they believe, than this will happen to bitcoin when it is usurped by monero, but it will probably also happen to monero someday.

Don't get me wrong, this isnt an argument against monero, im a huge fan of the tech and the community and its potential to do great things, but something better will be invented some day. Something better will always be invented later. This is why i dont think crypto is a great savings vehicle.

Though this could all be wrong in the future if one of the inventions that makes cryptos better is a solution to how to make cryptos more adaptable.

[brg444]

Silver coins

Diversity is your friend but I am sure that you already know that. Buy silver coins and sit on them.

The scenario when silver coins would become useful has become much lower probability. Silver price from 2011-> tells the story.

I have 10,000s of silver coins just in case  

switched most of my silver to monero.
i regret nothing

this game can go on for many more years. look how they pump the usd

the rise in the value of the usd is organic i think. its a flight to liquidity by terrified emerging market economies.

as for silver, the day will come that the cryptarchy cant hold it down any longer. the longer they artificially hold down the price through naked short selling and cash settlements guaranteed by the fed the more the demand will increase and the supply decrease. as it stands right now its a bloodbath in the mining sector and demand in asia is exploding precisely because of the manipulation of prices.

crypto is fun, its a great way to move money and a powerful speculate vehicle, but its not a great way to store value. when it comes to locking in those gains in a meaningful way, its all about them ounces.

Why not? 

Basically it has to do with the drawback of consensus based systems. The advantages are obvious and oft discussed. But the drawback that is less discussed is the lack of adaptability. (this could change with a successful implementation of sidechains) This means that basically, as it stands now, when new better ideas emerge for how to build better solutions for crypto systems, all the capital has to move from one system to another. If some of the people in this thread are right about some of the things they believe, than this will happen to bitcoin when it is usurped by monero, but it will probably also happen to monero someday.

Don't get me wrong, this isnt an argument against monero, im a huge fan of the tech and the community and its potential to do great things, but something better will be invented some day. Something better will always be invented later. This is why i dont think crypto is a great savings vehicle.

Though this could all be wrong in the future if one of the inventions that makes cryptos better is a solution to how to make cryptos more adaptable.

Like Bitcoin + Sidechains..?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.

On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.

[mrkavasaki]

Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.

On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.

if you think bitcoin will die, than i think monero will die to

[TrueCryptonaire]

Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.

On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.

if you think bitcoin will die, than i think monero will die to

It might do this. Chances are Monero will die and it is good to remember when you are investing into XMR.
However, Monero has better odds to succeed since you can add all the needed features of bitcoin into XMR. If you want to use Monero publically, it is possible, too.
Bitcoin's last chance to get some additional air is the Wall street pump. Bitcoin needs tons of stupid money flooding into it in order to gain some value.

Therefore, I think we should not focus too much on how many bitcoins Monero costs, but how many USD.
Monero needs to stand alone and separate itself from bitcoin - otherwise it is just another altcoin. We need to make Monero the Golden Standard.  

And I don't think Monero will be the ultimate crypto neither.

[brg444]

Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.

On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.

if you think bitcoin will die, than i think monero will die to

It might do this. Chances are Monero will die and it is good to remember when you are investing into XMR.
However, Monero has better odds to succeed since you can add all the needed features of bitcoin into XMR. If you want to use Monero publically, it is possible, too.
Bitcoin's last chance to get some additional air is the Wall street pump. Bitcoin needs tons of stupid money flooding into it in order to gain some value.

Therefore, I think we should not focus too much on how many bitcoins Monero costs, but how many USD.
Monero needs to stand alone and separate itself from bitcoin - otherwise it is just another altcoin.

And I don't think Monero will be the ultimate crypto neither.

 

this is nonsense. if you believe there will always be a better crypto then there is no use investing in them other than speculation and day trading.

there is such a thing as network effect. and bitcoin's own dwarfs monero's by a couple order of magnitudes.

protocols don't need to be perfect, they just need to be good enough and all signs point to Bitcoin being good enough.

Monero is unique from most other alts in that it does present a use case that the market demands and that can not (yet?) be filled by Bitcoin but I believe it is too little too late for Monero to supplant Bitcoin on technological merits alone