[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

But there are plenty of people with coins bought between 0.001-0.003

There are very few people who were
1) not heavily involved in XMR before 0.001-0.003;
2) who are not ardent believers now, and
3) who did buy in that range, and
4) have not already sold.

The other people (who of course did buy all the coins mined in that period) are not selling at these prices except trickle quantities. See my prior post.

Actually, "these people" is a group that is increasing now. The quantity of "XMR for short-term speculation" is growing during the uptrend.

I guess we shall see in the next few days. If it drops then I guess there were enough people in the profit zone to sell now (I'll rule out "non-believers for now)

Looks like there might be a little stability here around 0.004.
Also dump is possible, but I do not see it very probable (at least not in larger scale).
0.004 is a nice base for a rocket.

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[TrueCryptonaire]

what do you guys think will happen to xmr price IF bitcoin goes to say $150? Would that make xmr go higher or lower? Or no correlation?

I have found that the price of Monero relative to Bitcoin decreases initially on any Bitcoin down swing.

We haven't really had Monero during a true Bitcoin up swing so who knows.
When Bitcoin hit $1,000+ Litecoin took a while to truly catch up, and when it did, $45!

That's $45 for coin 4 times less scarce and more useless than Monero.

If Monero has the database and GUI work partially integrated into the main client by the time Bitcoin has a true $1,000, $2,000 up swing, we could see Monero going crazy.

I know you asked about Bitcoin going down, but I just feel like being more optimistic.

I think that any Bitcoin decrease will not be a good thing for Monero (unless Monero is the reason for the decrease, however that's unlikely to ever happen....)

Actually it is not that clear if Monero will drop relative to bitcoin in case of major bitcoin dump.
It depends largely on what kind of adoption Monero gets.
If Risto's fiat denominated hands get excited about Monero when btc is at 150 usd per coin, it might mean actually that Monero gains value against  bitcoin.
I am not that optimistic about bitcoin's future as many. Monero is actually better coin than bitcoin, the problem is, the large majority of bitcoin hard core guys have not heard the gospel according to Monero loud and vocal enough to pull the trigger.
Also Monero can serve in case of btc dump as a safe haven for many hardcore bitcoiners.

Until now, Monero has dropped against bitcoin (kind of leveraged dump) when btc is dropping.

[medusa13]

i am one of those people that is mainly focused on xmr/usd xchange rate(if focused on any exchange rate at all).
If bitcoin goes down to 150 or even lower and xmr does not follow in the opposite direction I will definitely buy more moneros.
I can see xmr/btc rate go to the moon if btc falls under 100 usd.

I do not hold any btc, maybe that explains it. If I sell xmr for btc I only do so to buy back more xmr or because I plan to sell the btc for usd.
I am not a bitcoin fan, I think it could be very dangerous if it reaches mainstream adoption

[Hueristic]

I'll be glad as you if we go up so more. But there are plenty of people with coins bought between 0.001-0.003 (and btc bought at 200-250) that will sell with a nice profit at this time- it just takes a flatline price for a bit and people get jittery.

It would be cool if it went directly to the m00n, but I don't think it will:

- Speculative sellers have been burned every time for weeks now, so they have become scarce
- Lax buyers have been burned every time for weeks now, so they have become more aggressive

=> Price has been rising. Exacerbating the above and forming a virtuous circle.

This is a bubble mechanism. Not saying that the bubble will pop now, or when it does, or at what price (in BTC/2010, the bubble lasted for months and never fully popped until the following summer after an additional 40x increase).

The thing that I can say with the highest certainty, is that after the bubble pop, around BTC0.003-0.0045 is the floor.

This, There are alot of coins out there grabbed up cheap for a quick turnaround. Once this surge plateaus they will get dumped. No biggie they will get eaten by stronger hands and it looks like those hands are BTC investors accumulating. Yes this is how a BTC whale grabs when they think a surge is imminent and other whales are eyeballing. No-one wants to be last in. They certainly aren't going to advertise it but they are. They are a intelligent group that can see the trend and that the future is moving to this coin.

But then we can announce the release of something ridiculous!

so it seems there will be a wave of profit takers from the 0.001 buyin era, and then later there will be a wave from the higher eras.

I dunno though. From the outside, it looks like the activity is different currently. Granted, I know jack squat about cryptocurrency markets, but I never saw these huge accumulation buys during the 0.001 range.

Those grabs were not there during the downslide because these are not speculative investors buying now.  That was the most important XMR test and Monero Passed with flying colors, don't think for a second no-one was watching which way that dump would go. Those that supported the coin during it's decline are the real visionaries and will reap those rewards. The BTC flowing in right now are from BTC holders that see the writing on the wall. It takes alot for a BTC holder to take any "ALT" seriously (and with good reason) but those same people that saw BTC was here to stay are moving into the next solid investment that will last years and pay them dividends over time.

AFA announcing something to effect the price, LOL you were joking rite? Those buying now are immune to hype. I would like to be fly on the wall when these BTC Whales get together.

I agree after the next profit taking round the price will bottom a .003 and then the upswing will start again. This really is a healthy cycle we currently are in. I need to start getting some good poker days to get back in when that happens. I feel so left out!

Shit I hate typing on this laptop, the touchpad is so sensitive the cursor jumps in the middle of a sentence all the time! @$@#$#$%

[TrueCryptonaire]

The next bigger selling wall is located at 0.0048. Around 25 k Moneros (or 1.5 days mining rewards).

[Hueristic]

Any theories on why the network hashrate isn't going up?  You'd think more people would mine it if it became profitable for them to do so.

I think hashrate usually follows the price up with some delay. Mining is a business of its own, you don't mine to invest in a coin, you buy the coin.

Botnets make free XMR. Tough to compete with that and nothing that can done about it. Those crooks are business men too if the botnet is not rented out what would you do with it?

Any theories on why the network hashrate isn't going up?  You'd think more people would mine it if it became profitable for them to do so.

large scale monero mining == a pain kinda sorta. Special versions of GPU miners etc.

i've read that most professional miners wait for a high price to stabilize before committing resources.

average joe miners still flummoxed by lack of GUI.

I mean, I guess the main miner drifter would be from litecoin or DRK - those are mostly GPU mined still, right?

I don't know about DRK but litecoin most certainly not. There are already a bunch of ASICs out for mining litecoin.

X11 is fpga now.

[kurious]

how can i create an monero papaerwallet, without download anything?

mymonero.com -> create new account -> login -> account -> account details

write down or print out Account Address (Public), View Key (Private), Spend Key (Private)

I just ran through it and tried it - very slick.

Am not as tech savvy as most and I'm on Mac.  I don't feel at home on anything using a terminal window (much prefer a GUI type wallet) but this is helpful.

Means I don't keep too much on Polo, Bittrex etc.

Going to cold store a few - might as well, I am a long way off selling - been buying since day 1 on Polo.

Fwiw - I only have holdings in BTC, XMR and a few handfuls of XCP.

Please do make sure you test the method before adding any substantial amount. I cant say that i have personally tried it.

Also idk how you came to the decision to buy xmr if you are not tech savvy, but you sure do have a heck of an intuition!

Flattering, thank you - but not that intuitive.  I have been into Bitcoin since 2013, and after a year or two watching the Wall Observer threads and listening to KFR, Risto and of course Aminorex, you realise there are a few people around who do know their stuff.

I was trying to Buy Monero before it was on Polo and it was pretty difficult.

As for not 'tech savvy' - I mean that many into Crypto currency are from a programming background, which I am not at all. 

However, don't worry. I do read, research and I am always cautious.   With crypto currencies feeling sometimes like the Wild West it doesn't take a genius to learn to exercise caution.   

I believe in Monero and admire the hard work and ethos of many behind it's continued growth.

I live in hope of a Mac GUI wallet - but MyMonero is as good as, which is why I was grateful to you.

Up to now I felt I had no choice but to split my Monero between exchanges.  I used to only lose sleep about not having BTC in cold storage, now I have the same concerns about my XMR.

[iCEBREAKER]

it seems there will be a wave of profit takers from the 0.001 buyin era, and then later there will be a wave from the higher eras.

Back in Dec I broke the support at 0.001, just to get it over with and also to create opportunities to buy larger amounts for less.

I have no intention of unloading my bags to take profit, until we get to 1oz silver parity...   

[iCEBREAKER]

A "life-changing amount of purchasing power" for someone who was living "normal developed world life" is USD 2-10 million.

Monero (unlike Bitcoin) has not generated any such people, because nether the craftiest miner nor the shrewdest speculator has been able to amass XMR valued at 2, let alone 10 million dollars. Both because such amounts are either impossible or statistically heavy outliers, and because acquiring them would have required resources that are outside the realm of people living such middle-class life.

Therefore, we can conclude that the divestment from such people, enough in quantity to cap a major rally, is not happening until such people exist. Any selling below that is speculative selling by speculators, but as analysed before, very few were left after the prolonged downtrend. Starting from now, some will be gained.

In my analysis, the uptrend will now continue until a tipping point (no timeframe given), and then recede possibly to 0.003-0.0045 area. Because my prior forecast that XMR "does not like" 0.002-0.003 range seems to have been confirmed, dips to this range are buying opportunities.

The emergence of USD pricing (decoupling from BTC) means that the ranges should be revised upwards. For those pricing in USD, $1 will be a good choice of a "sticky price". Also BTC took a multi-month breather around that price in the middle of the 2010-2011 uptrend, on its way to $32.

I agree with all of this, but am not sure what you mean by "Starting from now, some will be gained."

What will be gained, starting from now?   

[wpalczynski]

A "life-changing amount of purchasing power" for someone who was living "normal developed world life" is USD 2-10 million.

Monero (unlike Bitcoin) has not generated any such people, because nether the craftiest miner nor the shrewdest speculator has been able to amass XMR valued at 2, let alone 10 million dollars. Both because such amounts are either impossible or statistically heavy outliers, and because acquiring them would have required resources that are outside the realm of people living such middle-class life.

Therefore, we can conclude that the divestment from such people, enough in quantity to cap a major rally, is not happening until such people exist. Any selling below that is speculative selling by speculators, but as analysed before, very few were left after the prolonged downtrend. Starting from now, some will be gained.

In my analysis, the uptrend will now continue until a tipping point (no timeframe given), and then recede possibly to 0.003-0.0045 area. Because my prior forecast that XMR "does not like" 0.002-0.003 range seems to have been confirmed, dips to this range are buying opportunities.

The emergence of USD pricing (decoupling from BTC) means that the ranges should be revised upwards. For those pricing in USD, $1 will be a good choice of a "sticky price". Also BTC took a multi-month breather around that price in the middle of the 2010-2011 uptrend, on its way to $32.

I agree with all of this, but am not sure what you mean by "Starting from now, some will be gained."

What will be gained, starting from now?   

I think he means that speculators which were lost in the long downtrend will be regained.

[iCEBREAKER]

litecoin offers nothing of value over Bitcoin, so you may as well buy Bitcoin. Whilst I did hold Litecoin for a while - i will not do it again.

If you expect LTC to do 'MOAR' than BTC, you're looking at its value proposition the wrong way.

Bitcoin already offers plenty of value.  LTC will continue to do fine by (coming closest to) matching BTC in terms of network hashrate/security, mature infrastructure/ecosystem/userbase, and liquidity.  IOW BTC needs a hot-swappable backup, which LTC does a fine job of providing.

/offtopic digression

[brg444]

So I'm taking a vacation in a couple weeks and need some liquidity.

I'm enjoying healthy profits with this current run.. Should I cash out or wait two-three weeks?

Do ya'll see us keeping this pace?

[TrueCryptonaire]

So I'm taking a vacation in a couple weeks and need some liquidity.

I'm enjoying healthy profits with this current run.. Should I cash out or wait two-three weeks?

Do ya'll see us keeping this pace?

Cash now.
Weak hands need to be shaken.
I put one buy order.

[dEBRUYNE]

So I'm taking a vacation in a couple weeks and need some liquidity.

I'm enjoying healthy profits with this current run.. Should I cash out or wait two-three weeks?

Do ya'll see us keeping this pace?

Cash now.
Weak hands need to be shaken.
I put one buy order.

Calling someone who just needs some money to pay his vacation a weak hands seems a little inappropiate in my opinion. Regarding your post brg444, I personally would wait till the market cools off a bit. Currently the volume & volatility are pretty high and it could go either way. If this returns to normal you will have a more clear view on your decision. Although I said that it could go either way, I am personally more bullish at the moment. We survived a beartrend of around 6 months (in XMR/BTC terms, keep in mind that BTC went down as well), there was a clear outbreak and there seems to be much more consensus in the community. Furthermore, I see new people popping up everyday on IRC/reddit asking questions on how to get started, so that could be an indicator of a new influx of investors.

PS: Keep in mind that the DB will be released soon, although this could already be incorperated into the price.

[brg444]

So I'm taking a vacation in a couple weeks and need some liquidity.

I'm enjoying healthy profits with this current run.. Should I cash out or wait two-three weeks?

Do ya'll see us keeping this pace?

Cash now.
Weak hands need to be shaken.
I put one buy order.

Of course I'm never cashing out everything 

My sell order is sitting at 0.004. Feel free to take a chomp

[TrueCryptonaire]

So I'm taking a vacation in a couple weeks and need some liquidity.

I'm enjoying healthy profits with this current run.. Should I cash out or wait two-three weeks?

Do ya'll see us keeping this pace?

Cash now.
Weak hands need to be shaken.
I put one buy order.

Calling someone who just needs some money to pay his vacation a weak hands seems a little inappropiate in my opinion. Regarding your post brg444, I personally would wait till the market cools off a bit. Currently the volume & volatility are pretty high and it could go either way. If this returns to normal you will have a more clear view on your decision. Although I said that it could go either way, I am personally more bullish at the moment. We survived a beartrend of around 6 months (in XMR/BTC terms, keep in mind that BTC went down as well), there was a clear outbreak and there seems to be much more consensus in the community. Furthermore, I see new people popping up everyday on IRC/reddit asking questions on how to get started, so that could be an indicator of a new influx of investors.

PS: Keep in mind that the DB will be released soon, although this could already be incorperated into the price.

The Monero price is still somewhat fragile as it rose so fast.
It needs support now, so perhaps holding is better for the coin's success in mid term.
Personally I am not in a situation that I need to cash my coins to pay my vacation while Monero is still this cheap.
Actually, I am not even considering it at this point.
A person who is speaking if he/she has to sell now is a weak hand in my opinion. Strong hands are not even speaking in this way at this point.
Sure Monero has been a nice investment if you bought in January but it is nothing now what it should be in my opinion.
The community consists of so many high quality people (=with money and knowledge) + the coin is superior to bitcoin. The only weakness of Monero is that it is not used by the masses and when this is taking place, it is time to think wether to sell or not.
I personally will sell some coins when there are more people adapting Monero. I don't say it is the only right thing to do - I guess the chance of success is still 25 % but it has pressure to go higher as the price keeps going up.

I am getting pretty passionate as I see the price going up so my style might sound pretty harsh from time to time, I am sorry for that if it hurts someone's feelings.

[TrueCryptonaire]

So I'm taking a vacation in a couple weeks and need some liquidity.

I'm enjoying healthy profits with this current run.. Should I cash out or wait two-three weeks?

Do ya'll see us keeping this pace?

Cash now.
Weak hands need to be shaken.
I put one buy order.

Of course I'm never cashing out everything 

My sell order is sitting at 0.004. Feel free to take a chomp

Good boy.
Congratulations on the nice ride and I am glad you decided to leave some coins for the future appreciation.
Unfortunately I was dumped already and I have no btc in Polo right now. Also btc is very slow (it took over 1 hr to get even one conf. which is required by Polo).

[aminorex]

In 60 days, with no price change, XMR emission will put its market cap > peercoin.
I would guess it will actually take less than half that time, and when it does, it will attract a new wave of speculators/investors.

[Anon136]

WOW. look at that support and resistance. can anyone say bullish.

[iCEBREAKER]

WOW. look at that support and resistance. can anyone say bullish.

More BTC (~500) are chasing fewer XMR (~180K).

The market is tight as a drum, and getting tighter.