[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TheKoziTwo]

Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and massive adoption, no altcoin even comes close. To overtake bitcoin we'll need something that is as revolutionary as bitcoin is to the fiat/banking system. Monero is not that.

If minor improvements is all that it takes, we will soon enough see monero outcompeted by other currencies. Who's to say there won't be a zerocash type currency coming out where the parameteres are generated in a trusted manner? Suddenly everyone will flock to "the next big thing". Switching quickly between currencies like that means the storage of value is lost, nobody would use USD if they knew next month USD 2.0 will come out and their USD 1.0 will quickly decline in value. And then month after that USD 3.0 comes out with same result. This would be horrible for the ecosystem (and that without mentioning the huge costs of infrastructure change), and I don't think this will happen.

Monero serves a purpose, but for the majority of people the anonymity offered by monero isn't a revolution compared to bitcoin. Even if it was, bitcoin could implement it. That applies to any altcoin, too much is invested in bitcoin to let it be outcompeted. If there appears to be a serious threat, bitcoin will adapt.

It may turn out to be the case that bitcoin never goes anonym like monero. This could put a lot of pressure of it's back from governments that will instead be directed at monero and other anonymous currencies. Maybe that's a good thing.

Keep in mind that sidechains are coming, those could potentially make monero obsolete.

I realize this is swearing in the church, I like monero very much, but let's not get delusional. It's future success is not set in stone. I think at best monero can be a high liquid altcoin like LTC has been, and work as a complimentary currency to bitcoin. It may be, that bitcoin takes the spot as mainly storage of value, like gold is today. And that monero takes the spot as transactional currency. But it will never be the #1 crypto. That ship has sailed.

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[GreekBitcoin]

^ I totally agree.

In fact, what i see is that bitcoin will go mainstream, get even more centralized and regulated (unfortunately), and hopefully monero will be at 1-5% of bitcoin's marketcap.

Please, let us not be like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIasr2AiyZ0

Small steps at a time...

[TrueCryptonaire]

Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and massive adoption, no altcoin even comes close. To overtake bitcoin we'll need something that is as revolutionary as bitcoin is to the fiat/banking system. Monero is not that.

If minor improvements is all that it takes, we will soon enough see monero outcompeted by other currencies. Who's to say there won't be a zerocash type currency coming out where the parameteres are generated in a trusted manner? Suddenly everyone will flock to "the next big thing". Switching quickly between currencies like that means the storage of value is lost, nobody would use USD if they knew next month USD 2.0 will come out and their USD 1.0 will quickly decline in value. And then month after that USD 3.0 comes out with same result. This would be horrible for the ecosystem (and that without mentioning the huge costs of infrastructure change), and I don't think this will happen.

Monero serves a purpose, but for the majority of people the anonymity offered by monero isn't a revolution compared to bitcoin. Even if it was, bitcoin could implement it. That applies to any altcoin, too much is invested in bitcoin to let it be outcompeted. If there appears to be a serious threat, bitcoin will adap

I realize this is swearing in the church, I like monero very much, but let's not get delusional. It's future success is not set in stone. I think at best monero can be a high liquid altcoin like LTC has been, and work as a complimentary currency to bitcoin. It may be, that bitcoin takes the spot as mainly storage of value, like gold is today. And that monero takes the spot as transactional currency. But it will never be the #1 crypto. That ship has sailed.

For me it is Monero or fiat. I personally do not need bitcoin anywhere and I am not particularly interested in libertarian ethos of how central banks are evil and therefore we need this and that.
Pricewise, in order for btc it needs new people adapting it. At least following local community all I hear speaking in the forums are the owners of btc companies (localbitcoins and bittiraha.fi). Hardly no new people adapting btc.
When I am talking about  btc to fiat people, all they remember are scams (gox etc.) and the fact that btc train has left the station.
Not to mention the whole idea of btc is stupid: i convert my fiat to btc in order to pay a cup of coffee while it would be easier to do it simply throwing a few coins to cashier.

[Its About Sharing]

What is your ratio between bitcoin and XMR you have ? I have personnaly put about 50% of my investment in BTC and about 50% in XMR.

Not that I disagree with that ratio but I'm not doing that.
I hear more people use 5%-10% on alts. (initial value)
As the price rises they often cash out to keep that % (or maintain a certain percentage.)

That said I do feel like Monero is worthy of taking a bigger risk on as I have more than a strong feeling that many early
BTC adopters see what is happening and they want to up the ante with XMR.

IF XMR is showing this kind of strength with BTC relatively down, I can only imagine where it goes once BTC turns upwards.
My guess is from .01 BTC or .02 BTC on the lower end, to .1 BTC on the extreme high end.
So, being that we are in the .003-.004 range, a higher % of BTC in XMR is a decent chance to take.

What timeframe are you looking at?

The .01 ratio can happen overnight but I imagine in the next 3 months or so we see it happen.
My extreme high end ratio would involve unforseen forces as I can't see under normal circumstances that happening. But then again, when the public moves into Crypto en masse, all bets are off 

Being better tech than Bitcoin, I'd expect a more than 1:0.1 ratio at some point. After that, maybe we will have to witness a new paradigm (ie: the first alt to threat bitcoin's reign). Again, a long shot.

Better tech is not a huge part of the equation for me, after all, that can be debatable and needs to be proven after many attacks, which BTC has endured.

There are government and banking laws to consider, as they in large part will affect the price (depending on many factors of cousrse).

Since Monero is not based on BTC, I would imagine that affects adoption in the early going.

I would not be completely shocked if another Crypto outside of BTC is the new number one bit in 5 years or so. In the meantime, spread your eggs wisely and this is coming from a HUGE Monero believer and supporter.

[GingerAle]

Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and massive adoption, no altcoin even comes close. To overtake bitcoin we'll need something that is as revolutionary as bitcoin is to the fiat/banking system. Monero is not that.

If minor improvements is all that it takes, we will soon enough see monero outcompeted by other currencies. Who's to say there won't be a zerocash type currency coming out where the parameteres are generated in a trusted manner? Suddenly everyone will flock to "the next big thing". Switching quickly between currencies like that means the storage of value is lost, nobody would use USD if they knew next month USD 2.0 will come out and their USD 1.0 will quickly decline in value. And then month after that USD 3.0 comes out with same result. This would be horrible for the ecosystem (and that without mentioning the huge costs of infrastructure change), and I don't think this will happen.

Monero serves a purpose, but for the majority of people the anonymity offered by monero isn't a revolution compared to bitcoin. Even if it was, bitcoin could implement it. That applies to any altcoin, too much is invested in bitcoin to let it be outcompeted. If there appears to be a serious threat, bitcoin will adapt.

It may turn out to be the case that bitcoin never goes anonym like monero. This could put a lot of pressure of it's back from governments that will instead be directed at monero and other anonymous currencies. Maybe that's a good thing.

Keep in mind that sidechains are coming, those could potentially make monero obsolete.

I realize this is swearing in the church, I like monero very much, but let's not get delusional. It's future success is not set in stone. I think at best monero can be a high liquid altcoin like LTC has been, and work as a complimentary currency to bitcoin. It may be, that bitcoin takes the spot as mainly storage of value, like gold is today. And that monero takes the spot as transactional currency. But it will never be the #1 crypto. That ship has sailed.

Bitcoin == Too big to fail ?

Oh goody. Lets prop up another flawed infrastructure because change is too costly.

In general, I agree, and I've said as much before, and its been stated elsewhere - the transparency of bitcoin is congruent with some fintech needs, and its eventual (if not extant) centralization is as well. An altcoin that fills the void that bitcoin leaves as bitcoin transmogrifies into Fintech Gold Backbone will need functions that complement it. Truly private transactions is one such complement. We'll see how the centralization battle goes.

And we're already witness to this implementation (XBT = backbone, altcoin with new function uses backbone as bridge) XMR.TO

[TheKoziTwo]

If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

Wasn't Litecoin at it's peak about $1 billion vs Bitcoin at the time around $10 billion?
Now look at Litecoin...

Litecoin, at its very highest peak reached ~0.05 LTC/BTC. Mostly it's been 0.03 or lower. Since supply is 4x that means LTC was worth 5*4 = 20% of bitcoin.

[rpietila]

If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

Wasn't Litecoin at it's peak about $1 billion vs Bitcoin at the time around $10 billion?
Now look at Litecoin...

Litecoin, at its very highest peak reached ~0.05 LTC/BTC. Mostly it's been 0.03 or lower. Since supply is 4x that means LTC was worth 5*4 = 20% of bitcoin.

Although colloquial English cannot differentiate between present and future, it should be clear from the context that this clause refers to the future (hint: use of will indicates explicit future tense).

[luigi1111]

If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

Wasn't Litecoin at it's peak about $1 billion vs Bitcoin at the time around $10 billion?
Now look at Litecoin...

Litecoin, at its very highest peak reached ~0.05 LTC/BTC. Mostly it's been 0.03 or lower. Since supply is 4x that means LTC was worth 5*4 = 20% of bitcoin.

Supply might be 4x, but they weren't released on the same dates. In November 2013 there were only approximately 2x as many LTC vs BTC, which still equals about 10% of market cap.

[Its About Sharing]

If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

Wasn't Litecoin at it's peak about $1 billion vs Bitcoin at the time around $10 billion?
Now look at Litecoin...

Litecoin, at its very highest peak reached ~0.05 LTC/BTC. Mostly it's been 0.03 or lower. Since supply is 4x that means LTC was worth 5*4 = 20% of bitcoin.

Although colloquial English cannot differentiate between present and future, it should be clear from the context that this clause refers to the future (hint: use of will indicates explicit future tense).

[vokain]

If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

Wasn't Litecoin at it's peak about $1 billion vs Bitcoin at the time around $10 billion?
Now look at Litecoin...

Litecoin, at its very highest peak reached ~0.05 LTC/BTC. Mostly it's been 0.03 or lower. Since supply is 4x that means LTC was worth 5*4 = 20% of bitcoin.

Although colloquial English cannot differentiate between present and future, it should be clear from the context that this clause refers to the future (hint: use of will indicates explicit future tense).

I think "reaches" has a state satisfied by the quality of the binary, "has it been reached (or touched, if you'd rather)?". Presently, the answer is "yes" by Litecoin but by using a future tense verb in conjunction, you could infer that he effectively means "when an alt reaches (or "touches") again i.e. in the future".  I think. I don't know :p
 

[Joshuar]

If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

Wasn't Litecoin at it's peak about $1 billion vs Bitcoin at the time around $10 billion?
Now look at Litecoin...

Litecoin, at its very highest peak reached ~0.05 LTC/BTC. Mostly it's been 0.03 or lower. Since supply is 4x that means LTC was worth 5*4 = 20% of bitcoin.

Supply might be 4x, but they weren't released on the same dates. In November 2013 there were only approximately 2x as many LTC vs BTC, which still equals about 10% of market cap.

.
Besides, I think it's "cheating" when you have a coin supply much higher than Bitcoin's and then compare the coins ath marketcaps.

[Its About Sharing]

If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

Wasn't Litecoin at it's peak about $1 billion vs Bitcoin at the time around $10 billion?
Now look at Litecoin...

Litecoin, at its very highest peak reached ~0.05 LTC/BTC. Mostly it's been 0.03 or lower. Since supply is 4x that means LTC was worth 5*4 = 20% of bitcoin.

Although colloquial English cannot differentiate between present and future, it should be clear from the context that this clause refers to the future (hint: use of will indicates explicit future tense).

I think "reaches" is a state satisfied by the quality of the binary, "has it been reached (or touched, if you'd rather)?". Presently, the answer is "yes" by Litecoin but by using a future tense verb in conjunction, you could infer that he effectively means "when an alt reaches (or "touches") again i.e. in the future".  I think. I don't know :p

I see. I just have never seen (or do the Americans prefer "I never saw"  ) colloquial English described as such. I've always seen it as an informal way, or street level way, of communicating.
And now he got me thinking...

Conjunction junction, what is your function? (No, don't tell me!)

Thx

[rpietila]

So perhaps it is formal English, which has the problem. Judging your own manner of writing is understandably hard.

Anyway, the bold statement was intended to have the meaning:

"If ever in the future, some of the (honest - not intended to apply to premines such as Auroracoin or token coins with indeterminate supply and function) alts reaches even as low as 10-20% of BTC's marketcap, this is an indication that it has all that BTC has to offer and more, and will probably take over."

[Its About Sharing]

So perhaps it is formal English, which has the problem. Judging your own manner of writing is understandably hard.

Anyway, the bold statement was intended to have the meaning:

"If ever in the future, some of the (honest - not intended to apply to premines such as Auroracoin or token coins with indeterminate supply and function) alts reaches even as low as 10-20% of BTC's marketcap, this is an indication that it has all that BTC has to offer and more, and will probably take over."

Well, this is an interesting statement, colloquial English aside.
A lot of the money in BTC is actually early adopters imo, perhaps even a majority, in a created wealth sense. Anyway, these early adopters have a bit of a wealth effect on their hands.
(Their at one time near worthless BTC's have now made them millionaires.) And where to put some of that? We have seen some very early brilliance from the likes of Erik Voorhees, imo.

Now, this is where it gets interesting. Those with the foresight to see BTC years ago is a rare thing. Black Swans are hard to spot, even when explained and handed to you (e.g. Just think of all the people who have heard of this space (from us) and do absolutely nothing. Some of whom might even ask you for investment advice 2 weeks after this talk but never bring up BTC! Hello, Hello, McFly). Anyway, so now these select few are looking for the next great step within and without this space. And imo, some have found it...

Something (or is that someone) tells me quite a few of them are looking here. 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

[vokain]

Well whatever it is, this one has been a lot more easygoing than surmounting Bitcoin's learning curve. Maybe necessary now for the bigger fight we might have to have.

Now, this is where it gets interesting. Those with the foresight to see BTC years ago is a rare thing. Black Swans are hard to spot, even when explained and handed to you (e.g. Just think of all the people who have heard of this space (from us) and do absolutely nothing. Some of whom might even ask you for investment advice 2 weeks after this talk but never bring up BTC! Hello, Hello, McFly). Anyway, so now these select few are looking for the next great step within and without this space. And imo, some have found it...

Something (or is that someone) tells me quite a few of them are looking here. 

[hodlmybtc]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

You can't make conclusions like that by judging the orderbook at this moment.

Most coins aren't held on exchanges since noone wants to get goxxed, if the price would rise to let's say 0.006 a lot more XMR will pop up on the sell side.

[Hueristic]

...
Methinks XMR might (and probably will) "rise [like a] chikun" (as was chanted in the btc-e trollbox) like LTC ran from $1.11 to $48.48 in fall of 2013.  This will likely accelerate as BTC finishes the bottoming pattern and begins its next rally to $3-$10k BTC/USD.  XMR will be a greater "chikun" than LTC especially once GUI arrives and it grows widely adopted & utilized.

How much do you have left after Warz grabbed that 11k? Or did you just buy back at a loss?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

You can't make conclusions like that by judging the orderbook at this moment.

Most coins aren't held on exchanges since noone wants to get goxxed, if the price would rise to let's say 0.006 a lot more XMR will pop up on the sell side.

I hate my bullish way of talking but indeed 5,000 btc alone will take the coin to new level - even if you expect some weak hands shaking their Moneros on your bosoms.
As you said, there are coins in the sidelines but also some sell orders might get cancelled when the sellers get the point.

[hodlmybtc]

Judging the Poloniex sell orderbook it is actually quite easy to reach 10 % btc marketcap for Monero.
I do not want to pump but I am quite positive we will reach it.
You can buy quite large stake of Moneros for 5,000-10,000 btc.
Perhaps if if you triple that you can shake pretty many weak hands.
Just a quick reminder, 5 kbtc represents just over 1 million usd.

You can't make conclusions like that by judging the orderbook at this moment.

Most coins aren't held on exchanges since noone wants to get goxxed, if the price would rise to let's say 0.006 a lot more XMR will pop up on the sell side.

I hate my bullish way of talking but indeed 5,000 btc alone will take the coin to new level - even if you expect some weak hands shaking their Moneros on your bosoms.
As you said, there are coins in the sidelines but also some sell orders might get cancelled when the sellers get the point.

Ofcourse 5000 BTC will take it to new ATH's, but at this stage it's just impossible to buy so much XMR without buying up the whole orderbook more than once.

Even if you would buy so much XMR you will have bought a lot of coins at a price where noone else wants to buy, so the price will crash shortly after and you will have lost a lot of those 5000 BTC in purchasing power.