[XMR] Monero Speculation

[jehst]

Have a plan. Stick to it.

yeah well... The thing is the big holders are "trapped" in a sense. I mean, cashing out even a few k now doesn't really make sense. If anything, this downtrend makes me a stronger holder and will probably sell LESS when it goes back to 0.004+ BTC

These low prices can warp your perception if you let them. Last month, people were calling $500 a "bubble." $500 is not a bitcoin bubble and .004 is not a high price for XMR.

[americanpegasus]

I will never forget how I felt when Bitcoins were flirting with the low $200's and it felt like double digits were right around the corner. 
 
That is exactly when you should force yourself to feel greedy, even if your emotions betray you.

[phishead]

I will never forget how I felt when Bitcoins were flirting with the low $200's and it felt like double digits were right around the corner. 
 
That is exactly when you should force yourself to feel greedy, even if your emotions betray you.

Yeah, when I first learned about monero and decided to take my first dive into Bitcoin and cryptos in general, Bitcoin was priced at around $196 per coin which I felt I had on jump on moneros ascent into Bitcoin 2.0 land, but it just turned out I will have to wait a little longer. With the bull market on Bitcoin right now and lowering of prices of altcoins including monero, I feel I have to give one more good investment into monero in general to feel like I haven't lost much ground. In my own opinion, I feel as if I need to buy into the dips harder than ever to secure very cheap coins for myself.

[rpietila]

Have a plan. Stick to it.

yeah well... The thing is the big holders are "trapped" in a sense. I mean, cashing out even a few k now doesn't really make sense. If anything, this downtrend makes me a stronger holder and will probably sell LESS when it goes back to 0.004+ BTC

On the other hand, big holders such as me never had more than 10% of kitty invested in XMR anyway. So after other investments did better, XMR share is less than 5%, perhaps just a few %.

Some of the big holders may operate on a speculative investment paradigm, which means that they seek to "gain" from the exchange rate appreciating against something else (typically BTC, USD or EUR). But I am quite certain that most of us don't care about that too much. XMR is valuable on its own right, and its value is not based on its exchange rate, and will not be until the exchange rate is much higher ($100s per XMR min).

Anyone who has a few million$ to invest does not really have the urgency to "cash a few k" out from their most promising but least performing investment. Before we enter into such investments we make the decision that most probably it is going down anyway and we lose all the money invested (and invest the appropriate % accordingly).

I do not believe Monero is going down, but its exchange rate is quite dormant. (In EUR terms, it is actually still 80% higher than the low point a year ago - 0.40 vs. 0.22.) This is a good time to just hold, or add to the position to match the inflation. Of course if one wants to help Monero to grow, it is possible to become active or even full-timer in some Monero related projects, of which Crypto Kingdom is the most prominent currently

[ArticMine]

I agree with the hold / average down strategy for XMR at this point. In terms of CAD it is closer to 125%  over this years low's (0.60 CAD vs 0.26 CAD) due to the rise of XBT and the fall of CAD. The latter due to the fall in oil prices.

In the medium to long term I actually see the downward risk of XMR to be way lower than for XBT in terms of either major fiat currencies or precious metals. While the upside for XMR is likely to be also way higher than for XBT. This is due to the blocksize / scaling issue in XBT, which is not going away because of segregated witness or the other proposals. Contrary to the most commonly held opinions, I remain convinced that there is a very significant chance that XMR could even replace XBT as the lead crypto - currency due to the blocksize / scaling issue in XBT which is simply not a problem with XMR.

Then there remains the whole development discrepancy. XMR is the sixth most actively developed crypto currency https://www.coingecko.com/en?sort_by=developer_score, while at the same time there has not been an official release in over a year. The result of this is to give a completely false impression of development in XMR to many market participants. My take is that this has created an extremely dangerous situation for anyone who is trading XMR short term on the short side.

Edit: Here we go again: Over 13,000 unconfirmed transactions in Bitcoin with most of the blocks full. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

[owm123]

Edit: Here we go again: Over 13,000 unconfirmed transactions in Bitcoin with most of the blocks full. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

Can you also see unconfrimed xmr transactions?

[digicoin]

Edit: Here we go again: Over 13,000 unconfirmed transactions in Bitcoin with most of the blocks full. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

Can you also see unconfrimed xmr transactions?

Look at transaction pool http://chainradar.com/xmr/blocks

[phishead]

So, I have been wondering... why does it seem like there is only interest in things like DASH and Ethereum on major bitcoin/crypto news sites?  I don't think I've ever seen a Monero price/development analysis article, but I see it a lot with sites like newsBTC. I think I'm still confused in general about Ethereum/ripple and it's relationship with Microsoft, but DASH seems to be getting all the news coverage in the cryptonote scene.

[macsga]

I'm posting this because most of the (new) people here, *possibly* didn't notice that the only STABLE alt at the moment when BTC hits new highs seems to be XMR. Either you get it - or you don't, I don't have the time to explain.

[obit33]

So, I have been wondering... why does it seem like there is only interest in things like DASH and Ethereum on major bitcoin/crypto news sites?  I don't think I've ever seen a Monero price/development analysis article, but I see it a lot with sites like newsBTC. I think I'm still confused in general about Ethereum/ripple and it's relationship with Microsoft, but DASH seems to be getting all the news coverage in the cryptonote scene.

Dash is NOT a cryptonote-coin... Dash is overhyped and overmarketed, that's why they get much attention, lots of empty promises (masternode blinding) and now the evolution-thing... When push comes to shove the truth will reveal itself, and it won't be nice for dash-holders...

Best regards

[dEBRUYNE]

So, I have been wondering... why does it seem like there is only interest in things like DASH and Ethereum on major bitcoin/crypto news sites?  I don't think I've ever seen a Monero price/development analysis article, but I see it a lot with sites like newsBTC. I think I'm still confused in general about Ethereum/ripple and it's relationship with Microsoft, but DASH seems to be getting all the news coverage in the cryptonote scene.

They probably have a relationship with various (cryptocurreny) media outlets. In other words, they probably paid them to release/write articles about them.

[phishead]

So, I have been wondering... why does it seem like there is only interest in things like DASH and Ethereum on major bitcoin/crypto news sites?  I don't think I've ever seen a Monero price/development analysis article, but I see it a lot with sites like newsBTC. I think I'm still confused in general about Ethereum/ripple and it's relationship with Microsoft, but DASH seems to be getting all the news coverage in the cryptonote scene.

They probably have a relationship with various (cryptocurreny) media outlets. In other words, they probably paid them to release/write articles about them.

So can that be said about Ethereum/Ripple as well?  I think I'm still confused about what those coins are trying to provide... I know a lot of people think it's a credible system, and the fact that Microsoft is jumping on board with those cryptos (for whatever reason) makes it seem like it's the "next big thing" for people to invest.  All I know and have read on various news outlets is that they use it for their Azure cloud data base testing, but I don't understand why they need to invest with the Ethereum/Ripple protocol... what is so special about these cryptos?

[primer-]

So can that be said about Ethereum/Ripple as well?  I think I'm still confused about what those coins are trying to provide... I know a lot of people think it's a credible system, and the fact that Microsoft is jumping on board with those cryptos (for whatever reason) makes it seem like it's the "next big thing" for people to invest.  All I know and have read on various news outlets is that they use it for their Azure cloud data base testing, but I don't understand why they need to invest with the Ethereum/Ripple protocol... what is so special about these cryptos?

Ethereum is bitcoin 2.0. In a few months ethereum will be able to mimic monero anonymity in a couple lines of code...

[phishead]

So can that be said about Ethereum/Ripple as well?  I think I'm still confused about what those coins are trying to provide... I know a lot of people think it's a credible system, and the fact that Microsoft is jumping on board with those cryptos (for whatever reason) makes it seem like it's the "next big thing" for people to invest.  All I know and have read on various news outlets is that they use it for their Azure cloud data base testing, but I don't understand why they need to invest with the Ethereum/Ripple protocol... what is so special about these cryptos?

Ethereum is bitcoin 2.0. In a few months ethereum will be able to mimic monero anonymity in a couple lines of code...

I honestly doubt that any crypto can "mimic" the cryptonote protocol in "a couple lines of code".  I believe you can't just mimic that sort of thing and there is a lot more that goes into Monero's code.  Though, I will disclose that I would have no idea what kind of things happen "under the hood" that the devs continually work on day in and day out.

[primer-]

I honestly doubt that any crypto can "mimic" the cryptonote protocol in "a couple lines of code".  I believe you can't just mimic that sort of thing and there is a lot more that goes into Monero's code.  Though, I will disclose that I would have no idea what kind of things happen "under the hood" that the devs continually work on day in and day out.

Oh, yes  you can and they are already working on it (Vitalik himself is leading the team working on ring signatures contract!).

[phishead]

I honestly doubt that any crypto can "mimic" the cryptonote protocol in "a couple lines of code".  I believe you can't just mimic that sort of thing and there is a lot more that goes into Monero's code.  Though, I will disclose that I would have no idea what kind of things happen "under the hood" that the devs continually work on day in and day out.

Oh, yes  you can and they are already working on it (Vitalik himself is leading the team working on ring signatures contract!).

But you can't just change the code without completely disrupting the Ethereum network.  This would require a hardfork, which now since it looks like Microsoft is a key player in Ethereum, Vitalik won't be able to just hard fork whenever he pleases.  Maybe he's testing it theoretically, but there's no way he's going to try and implement something like that very soon.  I would think that there is so much more that you and I would ever be able to understand with the code that goes into Monero and cryptonote in general. I mean hell, have you ever tried to read and understand what goes into RingCT?

https://github.com/ShenNoether/MiniNero/blob/master/RingCT0.4_copy.pdf

It's not so simple to just input "a couple lines of code" and then *BAM* you have everything working like Monero and Ethereum combined.

[dadj]

I honestly doubt that any crypto can "mimic" the cryptonote protocol in "a couple lines of code".  I believe you can't just mimic that sort of thing and there is a lot more that goes into Monero's code.  Though, I will disclose that I would have no idea what kind of things happen "under the hood" that the devs continually work on day in and day out.

Oh, yes  you can and they are already working on it (Vitalik himself is leading the team working on ring signatures contract!).

Vitalik already confirmed that ring signatures would never become part of the Ethereum protocol by default.
Source:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3tappe/early_alpha_monerolike_linkable_ring_signatures/cx4yz4t

So anyone wanting privacy would likely have a larger address set to mix with in Monero where mixing will be default in the protocol (0.9 release).

[primer-]

I honestly doubt that any crypto can "mimic" the cryptonote protocol in "a couple lines of code".  I believe you can't just mimic that sort of thing and there is a lot more that goes into Monero's code.  Though, I will disclose that I would have no idea what kind of things happen "under the hood" that the devs continually work on day in and day out.

Oh, yes  you can and they are already working on it (Vitalik himself is leading the team working on ring signatures contract!).

But you can't just change the code without completely disrupting the Ethereum network.  This would require a hardfork, which now since it looks like Microsoft is a key player in Ethereum, Vitalik won't be able to just hard fork whenever he pleases.  Maybe he's testing it theoretically, but there's no way he's going to try and implement something like that very soon.  I would think that there is so much more that you and I would ever be able to understand with the code that goes into Monero and cryptonote in general. I mean hell, have you ever tried to read and understand what goes into RingCT?

https://github.com/ShenNoether/MiniNero/blob/master/RingCT0.4_copy.pdf

It's not so simple to just input "a couple lines of code" and then *BAM* you have everything working like Monero and Ethereum combined.

No hard fork my friend, Ethereum's blockchain runs its own programming language, Turing. Developers can create Ethereum contracts that mimic ANY other alt including monero.
You better read up on eth, you don't know the basics..

[primer-]

I honestly doubt that any crypto can "mimic" the cryptonote protocol in "a couple lines of code".  I believe you can't just mimic that sort of thing and there is a lot more that goes into Monero's code.  Though, I will disclose that I would have no idea what kind of things happen "under the hood" that the devs continually work on day in and day out.

Oh, yes  you can and they are already working on it (Vitalik himself is leading the team working on ring signatures contract!).

Vitalik already confirmed that ring signatures would never become part of the Ethereum protocol by default.
Source:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3tappe/early_alpha_monerolike_linkable_ring_signatures/cx4yz4t

So anyone wanting privacy would likely have a larger address set to mix with in Monero where mixing will be default in the protocol (0.9 release).

Why would it become a part of the protocol when a single dapp can do it...

[dadj]

I honestly doubt that any crypto can "mimic" the cryptonote protocol in "a couple lines of code".  I believe you can't just mimic that sort of thing and there is a lot more that goes into Monero's code.  Though, I will disclose that I would have no idea what kind of things happen "under the hood" that the devs continually work on day in and day out.

Oh, yes  you can and they are already working on it (Vitalik himself is leading the team working on ring signatures contract!).

Vitalik already confirmed that ring signatures would never become part of the Ethereum protocol by default.
Source:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3tappe/early_alpha_monerolike_linkable_ring_signatures/cx4yz4t

So anyone wanting privacy would likely have a larger address set to mix with in Monero where mixing will be default in the protocol (0.9 release).

Why would it become a part of the protocol when a single dapp can do it...

I'm not going to speculate on the future of Ethereum ring signatures here. Monero already has a working system today - I think it will become more popular once we have more web services using it.