[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

Everything is moving more slowly than I anticipated. But we still hurl towards 2021.

Yes as it seems 2021 will be the Year of Crypto.

No sure if you are serious but my plan is to give this 3 years and 3 months more.

This morning I saw that Monero was back on ShapeShift.  Then I saw that some of the buy wall at 2777 was eaten so I waited expecting it to be dumped on which it was.  Now I ponder.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Everything is moving more slowly than I anticipated. But we still hurl towards 2021.

For Monero I am not going to give time until 5 years. I think it is too long time and most likely there will be better alternative before that.
If there is no real growth this year, I am pretty unsure if this project will ever grow to any significiant measures.

If Monero project fails, I think it is not time to blame anyone - just move on in life. There will be new opportunities also down the line.

[Febo]

Everything is moving more slowly than I anticipated. But we still hurl towards 2021.

Yes as it seems 2021 will be the Year of Crypto.

No sure if you are serious but my plan is to give this 3 years and 3 months more.

This morning I saw that Monero was back on ShapeShift.  Then I saw that some of the buy wall at 2777 was eaten so I waited expecting it to be dumped on which it was.  Now I ponder.

I think you chose perfect day.


2019.10.27 4th Halving day!
Available supply: 17,294.533 XMR
Daily emission: 1582 XMR
Daily inflation: 0.00915%
% Mined: 93.75%


BTC will same day have:
Available supply: 17,677.800 BTC
Daily emission: 1800 BTC
Daily inflation: 0.01018%
% Mined: 84.18%

[ArticMine]

Everything is moving more slowly than I anticipated. But we still hurl towards 2021.

For Monero I am not going to give time until 5 years. I think it is too long time and most likely there will be better alternative before that.
If there is no real growth this year, I am pretty unsure if this project will ever grow to any significiant measures.

If Monero project fails, I think it is not time to blame anyone - just move on in life. There will be new opportunities also down the line.

How are you measuring growth? Price or Market Capitalization? There is a big difference. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#charts

Edit: ... but not for long. See the post above.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Everything is moving more slowly than I anticipated. But we still hurl towards 2021.

Yes as it seems 2021 will be the Year of Crypto.

No sure if you are serious but my plan is to give this 3 years and 3 months more.

This morning I saw that Monero was back on ShapeShift.  Then I saw that some of the buy wall at 2777 was eaten so I waited expecting it to be dumped on which it was.  Now I ponder.

I think you chose perfect day.


2019.10.27 4th Halving day!
Available supply: 17,294.533 XMR
Daily emission: 1582 XMR
Daily inflation: 0.00915%
% Mined: 93.75%


BTC will same day have:
Available supply: 17,677.800 BTC
Daily emission: 1800 BTC
Daily inflation: 0.01018%
% Mined: 84.18%

How did you calculate this? I thought there is no limit on how many Moneros will be mined unlike there is upper limit in bitcoin.

[jehst]

Everything is moving more slowly than I anticipated. But we still hurl towards 2021.

Yes as it seems 2021 will be the Year of Crypto.

No sure if you are serious but my plan is to give this 3 years and 3 months more.

This morning I saw that Monero was back on ShapeShift.  Then I saw that some of the buy wall at 2777 was eaten so I waited expecting it to be dumped on which it was.  Now I ponder.

I think you chose perfect day.


2019.10.27 4th Halving day!
Available supply: 17,294.533 XMR
Daily emission: 1582 XMR
Daily inflation: 0.00915%
% Mined: 93.75%


BTC will same day have:
Available supply: 17,677.800 BTC
Daily emission: 1800 BTC
Daily inflation: 0.01018%
% Mined: 84.18%

How did you calculate this? I thought there is no limit on how many Moneros will be mined unlike there is upper limit in bitcoin.

% of "base supply" (i.e. before tail emission begins).

[ArticMine]

Here is something interesting. This of course would work with Bitcoin and other in the clear blockchains.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/eu-central-database-bitcoin-users/

...

The inclusion of virtual exchange platforms and wallet providers in the directive will not fully address the issue of anonymity connected to virtual currency transactions since a large part of the virtual currency environment will remain anonymous as users can also transact without exchange platforms or wallets, the proposal noted.

To counter the risks related to the anonymity, national FIUs should be able to associate virtual currency addresses to the identity of the owner of virtual currencies. In addition, the possibility to allow users to self-declare to authorities voluntarily should be considered.

The proposal defines “virtual currencies” as “a digital representation of value that is neither issued by a central bank or a public authority, nor necessarily attached to a fiat currency, but is accepted by natural or legal persons as a means of payment and can be transferred, stored or traded electronically.”

...

but not with Monero

Edit: Here is the original document. http://ec.europa.eu/justice/criminal/document/files/aml-directive_en.pdf

[TrueCryptonaire]

Everything is moving more slowly than I anticipated. But we still hurl towards 2021.

For Monero I am not going to give time until 5 years. I think it is too long time and most likely there will be better alternative before that.
If there is no real growth this year, I am pretty unsure if this project will ever grow to any significiant measures.

If Monero project fails, I think it is not time to blame anyone - just move on in life. There will be new opportunities also down the line.

How are you measuring growth? Price or Market Capitalization? There is a big difference. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#charts

Edit: ... but not for long. See the post above.

Cool but from the perspective of the investors there should be some capital gain to make it attractive to hold. So far only dumps we have seen and a couple bubbles that form the shape of a hand showing the middle finger.

[s1gs3gv]

There are some rich valuations in the alts world right now for sure.

[Febo]

Everything is moving more slowly than I anticipated. But we still hurl towards 2021.

For Monero I am not going to give time until 5 years. I think it is too long time and most likely there will be better alternative before that.
If there is no real growth this year, I am pretty unsure if this project will ever grow to any significiant measures.

If Monero project fails, I think it is not time to blame anyone - just move on in life. There will be new opportunities also down the line.

How are you measuring growth? Price or Market Capitalization? There is a big difference. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#charts

Edit: ... but not for long. See the post above.

Cool but from the perspective of the investors there should be some capital gain to make it attractive to hold. So far only dumps we have seen and a couple bubbles that form the shape of a hand showing the middle finger.

There was decent gains if you got late into Monero (20-8 months ago). There will be gains even before "The year of Crypto".  Rare will not get tempted to sell at least something before then. As you see even 3 years from now at least emission part is way brighter then today. In the meantime things will just happen bad with otehr coins or godo with Monero and price will raise. I think one of first chances you will have to part from at least part of your stash at GUI release. I am certain the price will be higher then $2 at that time and i speculate that will not take more then half year for that to happen.

[ArticMine]

...

Cool but from the perspective of the investors there should be some capital gain to make it attractive to hold. So far only dumps we have seen and a couple bubbles that form the shape of a hand showing the middle finger.

One has to take into consideration the overall inflation rate not just the current emission here. The market value of the of the Monero crypto currency as a whole is determined by the market capitalization and not by the price of each individual coin. So for example if the market capitalization were to increase say by another factor 3 (approximately the increase of the current market capitalization from the market capitalization at the time of the ATH in 2014) the price would not fall by another 70%!

The big mistake people are making here is to extrapolate technical analysis appropriate for stocks to the start up phase of a POW crypto currency. If Monero were a stock and its market capitalization were 3X that of its previous ATH in 2014, its price would also have to 3x that of the price at the ATH. That would be over 10x its current price.

Edit: This extrapolation of technical analysis back to the launch date works reasonably well with Ethereum because of the ICO launch, and also somewhat though nowhere as well as with Ethereum with Dash (because of the instamine), but fails with Monero.

[Febo]

Something that is not that much linked to the speculation but i noticed is a Synergy of linking communication channels.  Now Telegram Slack and IRC are linked and no matter where you talk it is seen on all 3 channels. This made Monero IRC channel way more active.  And today i heard there are already 100 Telegram users. There is right now also over 140 users on IRC channel. Have no ideas what are slack stats.
What is important is that in Synergy simple math dont work but 1+1=3

[needmoney90]

Something that is not that much linked to the speculation but i noticed is a Synergy of linking communication channels.  Now Telegram Slack and IRC are linked and no matter where you talk it is seen on all 3 channels. This made Monero IRC channel way more active.  And today i heard there are already 100 Telegram users. There is right now also over 140 users on IRC channel. Have no ideas what are slack stats.
What is important is that in Synergy simple math dont work but 1+1=3

Metcalfe's law (or, modified metcalfe's law, the original was nonsensical). The value of a network increases superlinearly as the number of nodes in the network increases linearly. Doubling the number of users in the room theoretically increases conversation by more than double. Except now it's not just a theory, it's being played out in front of us.

For people too lazy to google: Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network increases linearly with the number of possible connections, which means that for a network with N nodes, the value is N^2. This is nonsensical though, because the number of connections on average between two nodes does not increase in proportion with the number of nodes, and Metcalfe assumed that every node would form a connection with every other node. So the modified version says that the value of the network increases at a rate of N*Log(N), which I think is much more sane. The idea that a network is more than the sum of it's parts is the key insight here.


Edit: The Slack currently has 44 people registered, so it's the smallest of the 3 channels (the newest too).

[americanpegasus]

It's almost time...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUwszL6J81I

http://itsalmo.st/#time_6zjbz

.... slow golf clap.  I am at a loss for words, brave anon.  Godspeed and thank you for gracing us with your wizardly warning.

[smooth]

where is risto? haven't seen him in this thread for ages now ...

Returned from summer break looks like:

[novag]

Monero is the best choice, wait for big investor!

[raphma]

“I do not believe the Ethereum project will survive much longer,” he insisted. “The internal dynamics are a mess, and people are beginning to worry about the legal implications of the code change. People are learning the truth, it seems.”

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/source-ethereum-insiders-believe-dao-hack-inside-job/

Get ready to some massive influx of BTC in other alts if Ethereum HF truly implodes. The volume in Classic makes no sense as much as I back the movement. I pick Monero.

if ETH implodes, xmr will receive a lot investment. Time to buy

[ArticMine]

“I do not believe the Ethereum project will survive much longer,” he insisted. “The internal dynamics are a mess, and people are beginning to worry about the legal implications of the code change. People are learning the truth, it seems.”

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/source-ethereum-insiders-believe-dao-hack-inside-job/

Get ready to some massive influx of BTC in other alts if Ethereum HF truly implodes. The volume in Classic makes no sense as much as I back the movement. I pick Monero.

if ETH implodes, xmr will receive a lot investment. Time to buy

While ETH imploding may cause an increase in the price of XMR in the short term, it will be the fundamentals of XMR that will determine its value over the long term.

[aminorex]

My outlook for XBTUSD is up intraday for a while, then down through the weekend, to a new low for the week, probably below 640, where my order ladder lies.  The implication for XMRBTC is favorable over the weekend, as XMR tends to USD stability during BTC fluctuations.  I'm anticipating a daily high in XMRBTC on Sunday or Monday, and may sell into it with some fraction of my very small trading position -- too small to make a significant price impact, so don't bother trying: Almost all of my XMR was lost in a boating accident in 2014, and is unavailable to the market barring some heroic recovery.

Feel free to mock my predictions after they are proven false.  Any sufficiently precise prediction is invariably false, so I won't feel bad about the occasional public whipping; as long as my long-term average privately demonstrates an edge which is scaled correctly to my trading risk, I will find some way to console myself.

[luigi1111]

My outlook for XBTUSD is up intraday for a while, then down through the weekend, to a new low for the week, probably below 640, where my order ladder lies.  The implication for XMRBTC is favorable over the weekend, as XMR tends to USD stability during BTC fluctuations.  I'm anticipating a daily high in XMRBTC on Sunday or Monday, and may sell into it with some fraction of my very small trading position -- too small to make a significant price impact, so don't bother trying: Almost all of my XMR was lost in a boating accident in 2014, and is unavailable to the market barring some heroic recovery.

Feel free to mock my predictions after they are proven false.  Any sufficiently precise prediction is invariably false, so I won't feel bad about the occasional public whipping; as long as my long-term average privately demonstrates an edge which is scaled correctly to my trading risk, I will find some way to console myself.

No mocking has ensued. Now, does that mean you're more or less likely to be correct?