[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

There are 34,947,351 LTC
28800 LTC/day * 30 days  => 864000 new coins each month, or 2.41% new coins in relation to Available Supply LTC
(bleeding like a pig, but a rather small wound if compared to the p's size)

18000 XMR/day * 30 days  => 540000 new coins each month, or ~10% new coins in relation to Available Supply XMR

So the figure changes oposite down if you take in the different coin ages. Litecoin has more adoption, but no more any innovation power. That kinda suggests XMR/LTC trading pair on exchange sites.
If you are mining LTC, you are most probably locked in due to high hardware investment costs. Mining XMR is adoptable by everyone.

Guesswork: LTC mining will continue but we will see some inpour from this side, buying XMR, stashed away for a later day. That could start once the % dillution values of LTC are equalling XMR. Which Available Supply XMR would mark that day on a calendar? Not so easy to say, one day XMR will have grown out of it's dwarf size of 5325000 coins, but LTC just continues with 50 LTC/2.5 min. There should be some block halving down to 25 LTC/2.5 min somewhere.

In comparing numbers with LTC, remember that LTC has 4x the coin supply as BTC (which in turn is slightly larger than the base supply for XMR).

Also, I found this recent article about LTC somewhat interesting: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/litecoin-creator-charlie-lee-claims-litecoin-not-need-development-says-adding-gimmicks-not-help-currency-succeed/

[jehst]

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

There are 34,947,351 LTC
28800 LTC/day * 30 days  => 864000 new coins each month, or 2.41% new coins in relation to Available Supply LTC
(bleeding like a pig, but a rather small wound if compared to the p's size)

18000 XMR/day * 30 days  => 540000 new coins each month, or ~10% new coins in relation to Available Supply XMR

So the figure changes oposite down if you take in the different coin ages. Litecoin has more adoption, but no more any innovation power. That kinda suggests XMR/LTC trading pair on exchange sites.
If you are mining LTC, you are most probably locked in due to high hardware investment costs. Mining XMR is adoptable by everyone.

Guesswork: LTC mining will continue but we will see some inpour from this side, buying XMR, stashed away for a later day. That could start once the % dillution values of LTC are equalling XMR. Which Available Supply XMR would mark that day on a calendar? Not so easy to say, one day XMR will have grown out of it's dwarf size of 5325000 coins, but LTC just continues with 50 LTC/2.5 min. There should be some block halving down to 25 LTC/2.5 min somewhere.

In comparing numbers with LTC, remember that LTC has 4x the coin supply as BTC (which in turn is slightly larger than the base supply for XMR).

Also, I found this recent article about LTC somewhat interesting: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/litecoin-creator-charlie-lee-claims-litecoin-not-need-development-says-adding-gimmicks-not-help-currency-succeed/

Gimmicks like multi-signature transactions, untraceability and smart contracts.

[rpietila]

The next things aside with the wallet (other than mymonero) is to make merchant tools for Monero.
Then establishing webshops selling groceries, hardware, you name it.

If the webshops even keep some percentage of Moneros without dumping it, it will create marketcap for the coin since there is some value which the webshops create, stored into Monero.

I think the merchant tools and especially after that webshops are the largest challenge for 2015.

This requires also more liquid markets (which is enabled partially by Moneroclub btw).

Sure. But if we regard monero as the ultimate wealth preservation tool, as the New Gold, then the actual practical usability is not a hindrance to the adoption. The adoption numbers may not be high (the same with gold - in most countries people don't have wealth to preserve, nor the understanding to do it even if they had some), but the adopters will be informed and ardent. Just like the situation with Monero and CK is.

[smooth]

The next things aside with the wallet (other than mymonero) is to make merchant tools for Monero.
Then establishing webshops selling groceries, hardware, you name it.

If the webshops even keep some percentage of Moneros without dumping it, it will create marketcap for the coin since there is some value which the webshops create, stored into Monero.

I think the merchant tools and especially after that webshops are the largest challenge for 2015.

This requires also more liquid markets (which is enabled partially by Moneroclub btw).

Sure. But if we regard monero as the ultimate wealth preservation tool, as the New Gold, then the actual practical usability is not a hindrance to the adoption. The adoption numbers may not be high (the same with gold - in most countries people don't have wealth to preserve, nor the understanding to do it even if they had some), but the adopters will be informed and ardent. Just like the situation with Monero and CK is.

I'm generally a proponent of the e-gold view, holding that cryptocurrencies can take the place of gold because they are cheaper to store securely, cheaper to transfer, etc. This can give enormous value even without being used in place of a visa card (i.e. at least hundreds if not thousands of times more than BTC's value today). Ultimately I also believe that being inherently anonymous gives Monero the edge here and the network effect of Bitcoin is largely blunted (since how many different ways you can earn or spend coins is not what gives it value). So there is a large opportunity here, uncertain of course. This will also, even in the best case, not happen overnight. It will take years if not decades, though some progress may be achieved sooner.

However, a certain amount of usability is required to reach that goal, in addition to being highly robust. Monero is not quite there yet. Progress is slow but steady.

[sucksyd]

The next things aside with the wallet (other than mymonero) is to make merchant tools for Monero.
Then establishing webshops selling groceries, hardware, you name it.

If the webshops even keep some percentage of Moneros without dumping it, it will create marketcap for the coin since there is some value which the webshops create, stored into Monero.

I think the merchant tools and especially after that webshops are the largest challenge for 2015.

This requires also more liquid markets (which is enabled partially by Moneroclub btw).

Sure. But if we regard monero as the ultimate wealth preservation tool, as the New Gold, then the actual practical usability is not a hindrance to the adoption. The adoption numbers may not be high (the same with gold - in most countries people don't have wealth to preserve, nor the understanding to do it even if they had some), but the adopters will be informed and ardent. Just like the situation with Monero and CK is.

Dear Friend,
Recently,i found the more you talk,the lower the price goes down.Due to your comments,why fewer people refuse to accept this?Because more and more people lose their interest in monero,the price goes downtrend.

[jehst]

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/525053405740294145

You know, I quit Monero because I disagreed with their direction, but I'm not going to gloat about them failing.

I'm curious as to what exactly Peter Todd disagrees. Can anyone fill me in?

EDIT:

I think I figured it out.

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/507427225927708672

The Cryptonote/Bytecoin codebase #XMR is based on is atrociously bad, orders of magnitude worse than #Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/507427586910486528

#XMR should take the ring sigs and graft them onto the Satoshi codebase,

[TinEye]

The distinction I make is why they hold it. If they hold it because moon, then that is speculation. If they hold it because it is actually useful to spend (maybe not now, but perhaps next week or next month) that is adoption.

Thats a long long away, my dear friend. Even Bitcoin is being held mainly for speculation.

All of us investing are speculators, some of them being more speculative than others. Monero to me falls in the more speculative but not purely speculative to me.

[smooth]

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/525053405740294145

"You know, I quit Monero because I disagreed with their direction, but I'm not going to gloat about them failing."

I'm curious as to what exactly Peter Todd disagrees. Can anyone fill me in?

His other work is all done on the Bitcoin code base and he didn't like the idea of using a different code base. Part of that was philosophical but part of it was just practical in terms of not wanting to climb up a steeper learning curve for one project (he works on many).

[smooth]

The distinction I make is why they hold it. If they hold it because moon, then that is speculation. If they hold it because it is actually useful to spend (maybe not now, but perhaps next week or next month) that is adoption.

Thats a long long away, my dear friend. Even Bitcoin is being held mainly for speculation.

Agreed. Some seemed to take issue with me on that point.

[Bassica]

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/525053405740294145

"You know, I quit Monero because I disagreed with their direction, but I'm not going to gloat about them failing."

I'm curious as to what exactly Peter Todd disagrees. Can anyone fill me in?

His other work is all done on the Bitcoin code base and he didn't like the idea of using a different code base. Part of that was philosophical but part of it was just practical in terms of not wanting to climb up a steeper learning curve for one project (he works on many).

Is that possible? I always understood that the different codebase was sort of a requierement for this tech to be implemented correctly.

[smooth]

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/525053405740294145

"You know, I quit Monero because I disagreed with their direction, but I'm not going to gloat about them failing."

I'm curious as to what exactly Peter Todd disagrees. Can anyone fill me in?

His other work is all done on the Bitcoin code base and he didn't like the idea of using a different code base. Part of that was philosophical but part of it was just practical in terms of not wanting to climb up a steeper learning curve for one project (he works on many).

Is that possible? I always understood that the different codebase was sort of a requierement for this tech to be implemented correctly.

That is pretty much true. It is possible but not really all that practical. It would require extensive modifications, and not really be the same code base anymore in a useful sense. Also, he never volunteered to do that (even for pay), he simply decided to go take other work that didn't have a learning curve.

[jehst]

It would require extensive modifications, and not really be the same code base anymore in a useful sense. Also, he never volunteered to do that (even for pay), he simply decided to go take other work that didn't have a learning curve.

It looks like "mixcoin" wanted to do ring signatures on the satoshi codebase but the project was abandoned.

https://cryptocointalk.com/topic/13012-pre-ann-mixcoin-mix-1st-satoshi-cryptonote-true-anontech/

Probably not as easy as "Just graft it on, bro."

[Bassica]

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/525053405740294145

"You know, I quit Monero because I disagreed with their direction, but I'm not going to gloat about them failing."

I'm curious as to what exactly Peter Todd disagrees. Can anyone fill me in?

His other work is all done on the Bitcoin code base and he didn't like the idea of using a different code base. Part of that was philosophical but part of it was just practical in terms of not wanting to climb up a steeper learning curve for one project (he works on many).

Is that possible? I always understood that the different codebase was sort of a requierement for this tech to be implemented correctly.

That is pretty much true. It is possible but not really all that practical. It would require extensive modifications, and not really be the same code base anymore in a useful sense. Also, he never volunteered to do that (even for pay), he simply decided to go take other work that didn't have a learning curve.

What does this bold part mean?

'It is possible, but the implementation-side has to be redone entirely'?

[smooth]

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/525053405740294145

"You know, I quit Monero because I disagreed with their direction, but I'm not going to gloat about them failing."

I'm curious as to what exactly Peter Todd disagrees. Can anyone fill me in?

His other work is all done on the Bitcoin code base and he didn't like the idea of using a different code base. Part of that was philosophical but part of it was just practical in terms of not wanting to climb up a steeper learning curve for one project (he works on many).

Is that possible? I always understood that the different codebase was sort of a requierement for this tech to be implemented correctly.

That is pretty much true. It is possible but not really all that practical. It would require extensive modifications, and not really be the same code base anymore in a useful sense. Also, he never volunteered to do that (even for pay), he simply decided to go take other work that didn't have a learning curve.

What does this bold part mean?

'It is possible, but the implementation-side has to be redone entirely'?

It means it would be so extensively modified to be almost unrecognizable by the time you were done.

Monero was just not a good fit for the type of work Peter wanted to do, which was to focus on working on coins that all use the same code base so his existing knowledge of the code would be valuable and provide synergies for him between projects. That's exactly what he told us.

[smooth]

It would require extensive modifications, and not really be the same code base anymore in a useful sense. Also, he never volunteered to do that (even for pay), he simply decided to go take other work that didn't have a learning curve.

It looks like "mixcoin" wanted to do ring signatures on the satoshi codebase but the project was abandoned.

https://cryptocointalk.com/topic/13012-pre-ann-mixcoin-mix-1st-satoshi-cryptonote-true-anontech/

Probably not as easy as "Just graft it on, bro."

That and ring signatures aren't the whole thing. There are some pretty good reasons for other aspects of the design that aren't entirely bitcoin-like. For example, the dynamic block sizes and penalty rules are not only an improvement (or at least arguably an improvement) over Bitcoin in terms of being able to scale up without needing a hard fork, but also serve to limit spamming/sybil attacks that could compromise anonymity.

A lot of thought went into the entire design, and we are still learning how some of the pieces fit together (a process complicated by the fact that it was left unfinished by the original designer, not entirely unlike bitcoin).

[Wexlike]

I just fulfilled my dream to reach a specific percentage of the current bitcoin supply, it took me just a little more than a year.
My next goal is to accumulate 0,1% of the current monero supply. For that, i will buy daily for 12$(that is everything i can afford  ). It's not much, and all you whales will make fun of me, but it adds up over time and I still really like the coin and the people who are involved in it. (and obviously the conversations in this topic)

Overall I think the current price is a great long term opportunity. Especially if you keep in mind the slowing inflation, the future development milestones and the need for anonymity.

[dEBRUYNE]

I just fulfilled my dream to reach a specific percentage of the current bitcoin supply, it took me just a little more than a year.
My next goal is to accumulate 0,1% of the current monero supply. For that, i will buy daily for 12$(that is everything i can afford  ). It's not much, and all you whales will make fun of me, but it adds up over time and I still really like the coin and the people who are involved in it. (and obviously the conversations in this topic)

Overall I think the current price is a great long term opportunity. Especially if you keep in mind the slowing inflation, the future development milestones and the need for anonymity.

I think they won't make fun of you, people like you are just the people we need.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I just fulfilled my dream to reach a specific percentage of the current bitcoin supply, it took me just a little more than a year.
My next goal is to accumulate 0,1% of the current monero supply. For that, i will buy daily for 12$(that is everything i can afford  ). It's not much, and all you whales will make fun of me, but it adds up over time and I still really like the coin and the people who are involved in it. (and obviously the conversations in this topic)

Overall I think the current price is a great long term opportunity. Especially if you keep in mind the slowing inflation, the future development milestones and the need for anonymity.

Warmly welcome. Not the worst timing to start constant stacking.

[Bassica]

2015 price target 2-3 usd/xmr with minirallies to 6-7$ (0.003-0.005 vs 600 btc/$)
2016 price target 5-15 usd/xmr (0.005-0.015 vs 1000 btc/$)
2017 price target 35-65 usd/xmr (0.015-0.025 vs 2500 btc/$)
2018 price target 125-375 usd/xmr (0.025-0.075 vs 5000 btc/$
2019 price target 750-1000 usd/xmr (0.075-0.1 vs 10000 btc/$)
2020 price target 0 successful government crackdown using a supersecret quantum computer obfuscating ring sigs.

Because 2014 is almost over, let's do some wild predictions  

[coinits]

2015 price target 2-3 usd/xmr with minirallies to 6-7$ (0.003-0.005 vs 600 btc/$)
2016 price target 5-15 usd/xmr (0.005-0.015 vs 1000 btc/$)
2017 price target 35-65 usd/xmr (0.015-0.025 vs 2500 btc/$)
2018 price target 125-375 usd/xmr (0.025-0.075 vs 5000 btc/$
2019 price target 750-1000 usd/xmr (0.075-0.1 vs 10000 btc/$)
2020 price target 0 successful government crackdown using a supersecret quantum computer obfuscating ring sigs.

Because 2014 is almost over, let's do some wild predictions 

OK Here is me gone wild - same thing I suggested for a POC coin:

DEVS will start a crowd funding project on Max Keiser's http://startjoin.com to get some much needed development cash and then one or more of the team will be interviewed by Max on his RT.com show: The Keiser Report. Then Monero to the moon.